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I think I read that most people cannot access facebook, but there are various workarounds people use. Here are some links but I'm not sure which ones are still currently viable solutions:
(1) FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS! Just run the .exe file, and it will open Firefox as well as two other programs. Wait until you are connected to the Tor network, and then don't forget to enable Tor in the bottom right hand corner of Firefox browser:
http://www.paulobrien.net/firefox-vidalia-privoxy-tor-bundle-single-exe/
(2) I travel to China on business pretty often. I've had excellent luck with the Personal VPN service:
http://www.surfbouncer.com/unblock_china.htm
(3) We have had the same problem here in Shanghai. The best way to unblock facebook we have found, (and it actually works!) is to subscribe to a VPN service provider. The one we use does not advertise that it unblocks facebook, but is more geared to providing access to UK Media such as BBC iPlayer.
(4) https://www.securitales.com/
Other websites report the same terrorist attack on Iraq refinery:
http://www.businessinsider.com/major-iraq-oil-refinery-closed-after-terrorist-attack-2011-2
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=axYSdQlGUwuc
http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/02/26/139290.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/26/us-iraq-oil-refinery-idUSTRE71P0IM20110226
These articles state it was the benzene and kerosene units that were hit. The reuters article also states that Iraq uses all of it's refined petroleum internally and states the refinery should be able to have a partial restart within a short period of time, but a full repair will take quite a while.
Good point, thanks. I added that to catalyst #3. But it won't happen unless LPH does a few other things first - better auditor, full time CFO with credentials from a good auditing firm, and LPH hires a new IR firm and follows their advice completely.
Potential catalysts for LPH moving forward:
(1) news of BIG acquisition which is followed by APPROPRIATE DETAILED NEWS RELEASE: PPS might increase +10% TO +15%
(2) After release of #1, Followup analysis by newswriters/analysts in major media to provide quantitative estimates of acquisition impact on storage capacity, sales, and net revenue increases along with assessment of revised P/E and PEG in SeekingAlpha, TheStreet, MarketWatch, Bloomberg: PPS +25% to +35%
(3) Coverage by the analysts that cover China: Rodman and Renshaw, Roth, Global Hunter, Northland Securities, or Maxim Stock, and/or subscriber service recommendations e.g. Navallier: PPS +10% to +20%
(4) China stops raising interest rates and bank reserve ratios for two consecutive months and GS and JP Morgan hint that China may be close to being done with inflation controls: +20% to +30% over 2 months
(5) CCME, audit by Deloitte is clean and 10K is stellar, CCME PPS goes to $23 PPS and Muddy Waters is sued: +5% to 15% across the board all US-listed China Stocks
(6) LPH announces an ex-senior auditor from Deloitte appointed as full-time CFO: +10%
(7) LPH hires a top 4 auditor in time for the next 10K to be issued September 30, 2011: +10%
** #1, #2, and #4 are likely to occur within the next 3 months.
** #3 is 50/50 - willingness of subscriber service to take on US-listed China oil companies depends on risk-on returning and hence won't occur without #4.
** #5 may not be as dramatic as anticipated: CCME price may go up slowly 14->15->16->17 over 3 months plus may not be enough evidence or jurisdiction to sue Muddy Waters if they are located in China and assets are not found within jurisdictional reach of US courts, could just be a gradual fading away of the fraud news theme, not a sudden sentiment reversal
** #6: Probability of a high caliber full-time CFO seems pretty low, based on company's past track record of not making this a priority concern.
** #7 Probability of appointing a top 4 audit firm also appears pretty low, based on company's past track record of not making this a priority concern.
*** IMHO, the top probability items are just a matter of time - within the next 3 to 4 months several catalysts will begin to kick in, maybe not all at once, but eventually there will be multiple catalysts this year.
Macro isn't my normal soapbox, but last May China stocks were at much higher valuations (China's reversal started last week of April). When the US macro turned in May, China stocks were not already at lows and thus valuations had quite a bit of room to fall.
In contrast, US macro has been high and moving higher since last December, which was the start of the China correction, fueled by interest rate hikes, price controls, reserve ratio increases, and a whole lot of spin about RTOs and fraud. By end of January, China stocks were sitting on rock bottom valuations or pretty close to it. If US macro takes a turn for the worse, what do you think that China stocks won't won't fall very far as they are already on the bottom rung of the P/E ladder and trading range?
On February 8 I posted the 3 month percent drop of many CGS, which shows how far CGS have fallen. However, some might claim the Nov. 8 high was a "false top" due to the irrational exhuberance of both domestic and China markets right after the elections and QE2 announcment. So first look at the percent drop from Nov. 8 to Feb. 8, then look at the 3 month drop. Nov. 25 to Feb. 25, which would be unaffected by election euphoria:
Nov.8 to Feb. 8 CGS showing -37%:
CBEH -37%
CCME -38%
CHGY -37%
LPH -37%
NEP -35%
TSTC -36%
Nov.8 to Feb. 8 CGS showing -25%:
AMCF -25%
LTUS -29%
RCON -23%
ZSTN -29%
Nov.8 to Feb. 8 CGS showing a few that don't fit the mold:
AERL -6%
CCCL -15%
LLEN -16%
PUDA +6%
SIHI +4%
UTA +8%
As of today (Nov. 25 to Feb. 25):
CBEH -34%
NEP -17%
CHGY -29%
LPH -13%
PUDA -13%
LLEN -23%
CCCL - 7%
CCME -17%
Toups: Multiple paychecks means he wont need raises or stock options from LPH, since he spreads out his renumeration, haha.
Seriously, I hope Toups stays sufficiently hands-on involved throughout LPH's SEC reporting process as that is supposed to be one of his specialties. Also, I hope they do a good job of getting a cost-effective price and financing terms that benefit both shareholders and the company whenever they decide to close on that next acquisition they are hinting about. LPH has stated the financing terms on the next acquisition is going to look better compared to their last acquisition, which despite warrants ended up doubling EPS on the bottom line, anyways.
UTA - getting close. My target is $6.15 to $6.25 since that is where I sold at after riding up from $5.09 last fall. Still not sure whether the trading range is going to shift to higher highs for UTA based on where most China small caps are stuck for the moment. It's gonna stay on my watch list for now.
Now reaching August lows for many CGS.
Like having everything in the store go on sale for 40 percent off, but you just noticed your wallet is 40 percent smaller...
LPH: Low PPS. Tempted 2 trade CCME for LPH.
"I think unions have served there purpose, and for the most part should be done away with"
Total elimination of unions and rescinding all laws related to collective bargaining rights would eventually allow the reversion of working conditions in the USA back to what they were many years ago.
Nevertheless, I whole-heartedly agree that at this point in history unions tend to get a strangehold on management which results in an unfair and biased fair market value of laborers compared to their employer's net profits and revenues. In addition, the bigger the union and the longer it has been around, the greater the tendency for union benefits that don't make sense, like excessive sick and personal days, 2/3 pay rotating layoffs during slow months, and early retirement parachutes for auto workers. In the case of public workers, unions have resulted in trends where salaries might be out of line with those in private industry for the same level of education and experience.
However, there are still cases that come up where representation is needed, so before throwing the baby out with the bath water, there should be some tough analysis and reconsideration regarding putting some limits on union power - which should reduce unions' stranglehold on power but yet still allow for collective representation of workers. This is a very difficult area to come up with a good compromise because the issues and industries are so broad and varied. However, it needs to be done. The solution is neither a blanket elimination of unions, nor a blanket acceptance of unions as they stand today.
Inefficient markets example: PPS disparity on two exchanges. From Bloomberg News, today: "Shares in China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., the nation’s biggest refiner, climbed 1.4 percent in Shanghai. The company’s Hong Kong-listed shares dropped 2.3 percent as analysts said the increase in government-controlled prices won’t be enough to offset refining losses."
Inefficient markets are what is going on with LPH right now; value tends not to be recognized immediately, which is there to be exploited by astute investors who are willing to wait.
LPH is an undervalued stock play (P/E = 4.0) and also is a huge growth play -- in FY2010 their 2nd facility more than DOUBLED fully diluted EPS, while this year the CFO has stated they will soon acquire a 3rd facility the size of Guijao. (Roughly speaking, that could grow EPS 30% to 40%.)
Andrew Redleaf's lecture on inefficient markets:
Inefficient markets example: PPS disparity on two exchanges. From Bloomberg News, today: "Shares in China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., the nation’s biggest refiner, climbed 1.4 percent in Shanghai. The company’s Hong Kong-listed shares dropped 2.3 percent as analysts said the increase in government-controlled prices won’t be enough to offset refining losses."
Inefficient markets are what is going on with LPH right now; value tends not to be recognized immediately, which is there to be exploited by astute investors who are willing to wait.
LPH is an undervalued stock play (P/E = 4.0) and also is a huge growth play -- in FY2010 their 2nd facility more than DOUBLED fully diluted EPS, while this year the CFO has stated they will soon acquire a 3rd facility the size of Guijao. (Roughly speaking, that could grow EPS 30% to 40%.)
Andrew Redleaf's lecture on inefficient markets:
Glen, sheep are out in-force on Yahoo. More voices needed to analyze and explain risk/reward from expansion
Great. Yeah, I think sometimes we tend to get caught up in the philosophy that every potential stock dilution equates to ripping off shareholders, which is only true if the money wasn't used wisely with an acquisition that is not net-accretive to EPS over a reasonable length of time.
For clues as to what is reasonable for a dilution/acquisition, you have to get details on the size and scope of a planned acquisition, the timeframe until revenues kick in, and the exact amount of dilution.
Then you have to decide if you trust the company by looking at their acquisition/dilution track record. LPH's 2009 acquisition financing involved a moderate number of shares of dilution (14M preferred + 14M warrants diluting onto a 85M previous sharecount). It was not unreasonable because the acquisition resulted in a DOUBLING of NET INCOME, while having to do much less than a doubling of sharecount.
The big headache from the last deal was the warrant, and there are no warrants mentioned in the S3 this time around. As far as extent of dilution, the total amount of financing shares is capped at $50M, a pretty reasonable maximum based on current total sharecount. Of course, if investors went crazy and sold off LPH down to a buck a share, THEN AT THAT POINT $50M worth of shares would represent far too much dilution. That's why my previous comment pertained to a potentially self-fulfilling prophecy if investors complain so much they can't hear themselves think about the value being added here.
Good luck to you. I'm set for now for shares unless I want to sell some other holdings.
LPH: P/E 4.1; more undervalued than I thought:
If you look on E*Trade, it appears LPH P/E = 4.6 = $2.40/$0.52.
However, I doublechecked the last 4 quarters fully diluted GAAP EPS from E*Trade versus 10Qs and 10K. Three of the 10Q official EPS values matched the E*Trade figure. But for one period, 06/30/2010, the 10K does not match E*Trade (0.25 versus 0.33 EPS for the quarter, fully diluted including adjustments for change in fair value of warrants).
That is apparently the source of disagreement: I must have relied on E*Trade's compilation and checked some but not all of the supporting 10Qs. Obviously the 10K should be considered the definitive data source because E*Trade's numbers are extracted and then manipulated and presented on their website by a second data provider.
Within rounding error, it would be:
P/E = 4.1 = $2.40/$0.59
03/31/2010 10Q, page F-16: EPS for the quarter = 0.10
06/30/2010 10K, page F-25: EPS for the quarter = 0.33
09/30/2010 10Q, page F-5: EPS for the quarter = 0.04
12/31/2010 10Q, page F-5: EPS for the quarter = 0.12
TTM EPS SUM = 0.59 = 0.10 + 0.33 + 0.04 + 0.12
LPH is even more undervalued than I thought. This is a steal at a P/E so low it is barely above the 3s, amazing for a strong growth wholesale oil company. Truly undiscovered by the market at this price.
LPH: P/E 4.1; more undervalued than I thought:
If you look on E*Trade, it appears LPH P/E = 4.6 = $2.40/$0.52.
However, I doublechecked the last 4 quarters fully diluted GAAP EPS from E*Trade versus 10Qs and 10K. Three of the 10Q official EPS values matched the E*Trade figure. But for one period, 06/30/2010, the 10K does not match E*Trade (0.25 versus 0.33 EPS for the quarter, fully diluted including adjustments for change in fair value of warrants).
That is apparently the source of disagreement: I must have relied on E*Trade's compilation and checked some but not all of the supporting 10Qs. Obviously the 10K should be considered the definitive data source because E*Trade's numbers are extracted and then manipulated and presented on their website by a second data provider.
Within rounding error, it would be:
P/E = 4.1 = $2.40/$0.59
03/31/2010 10Q, page F-16: EPS for the quarter = 0.10
06/30/2010 10K, page F-25: EPS for the quarter = 0.33
09/30/2010 10Q, page F-5: EPS for the quarter = 0.04
12/31/2010 10Q, page F-5: EPS for the quarter = 0.12
TTM EPS SUM = 0.59 = 0.10 + 0.33 + 0.04 + 0.12
LPH is even more undervalued than I thought. This is a steal at a P/E so low it is barely above the 3s, amazing for a strong growth wholesale oil company. Truly undiscovered by the market at this price.
UTA: One seller unloaded 27K + 36K, minutes later 14K + 10K.
Not sure if there is any news or just someone unwinding maybe to raise cash for options expiration today.
LPH fundamentals: PE, customer base, demand growth, expansion.
During times when the nervous nellies are ready to jump out windows over conference call discussions that even hint at the "D" word...keep your head.
Could be only a short timeframe - 2 to 4 weeks - until some good articles come out that identify LPH as a top China oil stock poised for growth AND with great value:
Bigger media services will run the news announcing a big acquisition and analyzing the value added by the acquisition. These media outlets may greatly facilitate exposure: SeekingAlpha, TheStreet, EnergyChinaForum, Bloomberg, MarketWatch, and of course newswire services that appear next to the tickers on every stock screener/brokerage website.
This will be triggered by the news of an acquisition and how it could multiply earnings, as well as other attractive fundamentals:
(1) P/E: LPH current earnings show a TTM P/E of 4.8, which is amazingly undervalued for petroleum-related stocks.
(2) Safety play for steady growth: LPH earnings are very predictable and steady - a good safe earnings play due to customer contracts, steady and increasing demand, predictable margins, and great geographic location near industrial areas. Oil consumption is increasing exponentially, not linearly, in China.
(3) Past growth model: LPH DOUBLED their annual net earnings by expanding from one facility to 2 facilities a year ago.
(4) Future growth model: LPH very clearly and confidently stated they have their eyes on acquiring another LARGE facility, the size of Guijao, 50,000 to 70,000 mt this year and are going to write letters of intent around the end of this quarter.
POSSIBLE INCREASED EARNINGS BY 1.5 in going from 2 facilities to 3 facilities. When the ESTIMATED FUTURE CAPACITY IS ANNOUNCED in the details of an acquisition deal on the wire services, it will trigger WIDER INVESTOR INTEREST within a few weeks.
(5) IMMEDIATELY ACCRETIVE EXPANSION: In their presentation, the CFO of LPH said they expect acquisition earnings to be accretive right away: adding significant earnings to EPS in FIRST QUARTER of FISCAL YEAR 2011 - which starts July 1, 2011. That would be win-win for investors and the company, regardless of the ratio of cash to share financing, which is limited to $50M share equivalents (12% to 16% of market cap) according to the S3.
So before deciding, is acquisition along with minor diluitive financing a reason to BUY or a reason to SELL -- think for a minute: Why are you an investor? - LPH isn't a CD - it is a growth stock. That is why China companies choose to list on the US exchange: to grow their business.
Moral: investors should not be afraid of their own shadow.
LPH fundamentals: PE, customer base, demand growth, expansion.
During times when the nervous nellies are ready to jump out windows over conference call discussions that even hint at the "D" word...keep your head.
Could be only a short timeframe - 2 to 4 weeks - until some good articles come out that identify LPH as a top China oil stock poised for growth AND with great value:
Bigger media services will run the news announcing a big acquisition and analyzing the value added by the acquisition. These media outlets may greatly facilitate exposure: SeekingAlpha, TheStreet, EnergyChinaForum, Bloomberg, MarketWatch, and of course newswire services that appear next to the tickers on every stock screener/brokerage website.
This will be triggered by the news of an acquisition and how it could multiply earnings, as well as other attractive fundamentals:
(1) P/E: LPH current earnings show a TTM P/E of 4.8, which is amazingly undervalued for petroleum-related stocks.
(2) Safety play for steady growth: LPH earnings are very predictable and steady - a good safe earnings play due to customer contracts, steady and increasing demand, predictable margins, and great geographic location near industrial areas. Oil consumption is increasing exponentially, not linearly, in China.
(3) Past growth model: LPH DOUBLED their annual net earnings by expanding from one facility to 2 facilities a year ago.
(4) Future growth model: LPH very clearly and confidently stated they have their eyes on acquiring another LARGE facility, the size of Guijao, 50,000 to 70,000 mt this year and are going to write letters of intent around the end of this quarter.
POSSIBLE INCREASED EARNINGS BY 1.5 in going from 2 facilities to 3 facilities. When the ESTIMATED FUTURE CAPACITY IS ANNOUNCED in the details of an acquisition deal on the wire services, it will trigger WIDER INVESTOR INTEREST within a few weeks.
(5) IMMEDIATELY ACCRETIVE EXPANSION: In their presentation, the CFO of LPH said they expect acquisition earnings to be accretive right away: adding significant earnings to EPS in FIRST QUARTER of FISCAL YEAR 2011 - which starts July 1, 2011. That would be win-win for investors and the company, regardless of the ratio of cash to share financing, which is limited to $50M share equivalents (12% to 16% of market cap) according to the S3.
So before deciding, is acquisition along with minor diluitive financing a reason to BUY or a reason to SELL -- think for a minute: Why are you an investor? - LPH isn't a CD - it is a growth stock. That is why China companies choose to list on the US exchange: to grow their business.
Moral: investors should not be afraid of their own shadow.
yep, green oil is what I am here for, LOL
he's just being 100 percent sarcastic, lol.
The subtle joke is he is probably saying he is from the "global warming is a hoax" camp. That would explain the whole message.
Actual Global Hunter report HERE (not PR news):
https://ghsecurities.bluematrix.com/docs/pdf/2e6cd10c-3f08-4304-b994-5b0ca8a93e2f.pdf?co=Ghsecurities&id=ghsresearch@ghsecurities.com&source=mail
WWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!
Someone call CCME, ask them for quick Press Release to announce the Global Hunter report -- just a short couple sentences would capture HUGE wire news exposure for synergy today. Maybe also mention CCME also involved with on-the-ground research.
Needs to be done right away for maximum timing along with GH report released today.
LOL I don't have a crystal ball. However, reading Bloomberg daily which quotes JP Morgan and GS and other Wall Street fortune tellers, the latest thinking is that "tightening" of interest rates should be finished in the first half of this year and when that is over with there will be a renewed risk-on period. In the past these guys can be wrong some of the time, but the point is they all have said China planned to aggressively "front-load" several interest rate hikes and bank reserve ratio increases in several events in close succession starting in December. The goal was to take strong action early so that China could control inflation before it got more out of hand. The thinking was that early action is better than delayed action. So when the PRC finishes with several months of tightening measures, they should be done with tightening for the rest of the year. They cannot do it forever because if they tighten too far they will create different problems. I'm not a macro expert -- that is one area that requires a lot of experience.
I am trying to point out that some deals are done where a company acquires another company using shares of their own stock as currency. For example, a couple weeks ago NEP stated they were acquiring an oilfield from another company to be paid for partly with 5M shares of NEP stock and partly with cash. The stockholders of the company being acquired then end up with shares of NEP.
By doing it this way, you avoid selling newly created shares on the open market. The problem with open market sales of new shares is the company knows it will take a while to sell them at current market prices - based on volume x number of days. So there is usually a discount on the share price. For example, CCCL issued a shelf offering of a few million shares, and they offered all of the shares at a fixed price which was roughly 10 percent lower than the current market price as of the closing the day before issuance. PUDA did the same thing, roughly 10 percent discount compared to previous day's price.
So you see that temporary 10 percent drop, but the sale raises cash faster than just offering at whatever price the market is willing to bid.
That is how I understood those two deals to occur. Look it up in their previous news releases if you want to see how it was described in more detail. I just assumed LPH would do the same if in fact they sold open market new shares.
So if they gave new shares in lieu of cash, there would not be this discount to market of 10 percent necessary, and theoretically the market price should not have to drop by 10 or more percent if investors realize the acquisition is immediately accretive to earnings (or within a quarter or thereabouts).
I know that. We are in risk-off. However, my watch list still shows the occasional 15 percent pop among certain CGS stocks. If other stocks can do it LPH can with the right exposure and the right news.
I guess the word "pop" implies a one-day spike. Those are hard to predict, actually. Sometimes you can see 10 percent if an acquisition looks really sexy and accretive. During risk-on periods you can even see 20 percent. But that's not the big picture, for sure.
But I fully agree with you LPH is planning for "slow and steady wins the race" when they expand every 2 years and then try to maximize customers for each new facility. PPS however, tends to move in leaps and jumps, not slow and steady.
Because LPH has been in business 15 years and has a simple business model it is a fairly safe play for investors. And their track record showed the first expansion doubled EPS even considering dilution.
But qualitatively, yes to reach the full potential (going from the presently undervalued P/E just under 5 to P/E of 8 or 9), we need some bigger whales - sort of like Navellier's subscriber service achieved with their recommending LPH last fall. In fact, I placed a comment regarding LPH on Navellier's website today under an advertisement where he stated investors should pick the right oil stocks now.
Soon we will see a few SeekingAlpha small time plugs and a couple of plugs from TheStreet, and that should begin a slow wakeup trend. Really big moves come when risk-on starts to return - that is true for every stock - and when some bigger name advisory firms recommend LPH.
I can only cite stats, I cannot predict sentiment. However, there are hundreds of talking heads reverberating opinion regarding general macro sentiment every single day, and I have nothing to contribute to that noise. Investors need to research and understand solid companies that will bounce back really fast and really strong whenever the macro noise quiets down and LPH is a very strong upside when that happens. Meanwhile it is low risk as long as you have patience.
Clarify amount ceilings of S3 dilution:
The S3 stated up to $50M worth of new shares would be issued.
Worst case giveaway, which LPH stated they would prefer not doing at the current depressed PPS level:
Assuming current PPS of $2.50 that would equate to 20M new shares out of 113M existing shares, or a dilution of 17.7%.
At a higher PPS of $3.50, $50M of new shares would equate to 14.3M new shares or 12.7% dilution.
If they are buying a "large" facility similar to the 50,000 to 70,000 mt size of their current facilities, then the ROI on that dilution would be around DOUBLE OR TRIPLE: 24% to 48% increase in net income. That's very accretive.
I was surprised when Toups answered my question regarding timeline: They are looking at letters of intent to sign before end of current quarter, looking at closing the deal(s) in the next quarter (March - June), then looking at realizing significant new earnings during the quarter beginning JULY 1, 2012 (Q1 FY2012). That would be almost immediately accretive.
The financing from share issuance would be supplemented with cash on-hand plus any old warrants that could get redeemed between now and dealtime - which bring the company an exercise price of $2.255 per warrant. However, the last time PPS went up to the mid-3s, about 1.6M warrants got redeemed. If PPS goes up BEFORE the deal is closed, warrants could add to cash on-hand about 1.6 x 2.25 = $3.6M.
Other topic -- Yes, I think it is conceivable that LPH could issue restricted shares to the company being acquired in lieu of cash payment if the company being acquired is ammenable to that kind of arrangement. Questionable if that would work if the acquisition was a state-owned facility, not sure about that.
But restricted share acquistion deals (NEP is doing one by the way) are better than raising money by selling stock on the open market to pay for an acquisition. The reason is open market share sales usually are issued about 10 percent discount below the current day's market price so that there is incentive for investors to buy shares quickly.
Potential LPH acquisition may add to July earnings.
This estimate from Mr. Toups in today's presentation, assuming a timeline of letter of intent by end of this quarter, deal done during next quarter, and operating facility adding to earnings starting in the quarter of July 1, 2011. Immediately accretive.
If the announcement is handled with the following clarifications, then I would expect a 15 - 20 percent pop on the day of the announcement:
If the acquisition is a (1) fully operational facility and (2) the capacity is at least 50,000-70,000mt similar to the last acquisition, which effectively doubled LPH's revenues within a little over a year.
Potential LPH acquisition may add to July earnings.
This estimate from Mr. Toups in today's presentation, assuming a timeline of letter of intent by end of this quarter, deal done during next quarter, and operating facility adding to earnings starting in the quarter of July 1, 2011. Immediately accretive.
If the announcement is handled with the following clarifications, then I would expect a 15 - 20 percent pop on the day of the announcement:
If the acquisition is a (1) fully operational facility and (2) the capacity is at least 50,000-70,000mt similar to the last acquisition, which effectively doubled LPH's revenues within a little over a year.
LPH: acquisition nextQ; new earnings in Q following
Toups clearly stated they were close to getting ready for letters of intent; the new acquisition could be in the next quarter and the earnings from acquired facility could come in the first Q of fiscal year 2012 which would be STARTING JULY 1, 2011.
That is what I call immediately accretive. Sounds like they are looking at turnkey operational facilities to acquire and immediately turn profits.
LPH: acquisition nextQ; new earnings in Q following
Toups clearly stated they were close to getting ready for letters of intent; the new acquisition could be in the next quarter and the earnings from acquired facility could come in the first Q of fiscal year 2012 which would be STARTING JULY 1, 2011.
That is what I call immediately accretive. Sounds like they are looking at turnkey operational facilities to acquire and immediately turn profits.
If the target company is state-owned it's probably not possible, but if it's private anything is possible
Clarify amount ceilings of S3 dilution:
The S3 stated up to $50M worth of new shares would be issued.
Worst case giveaway, which LPH stated they would prefer not doing at the current depressed PPS level:
Assuming current PPS of $2.50 that would equate to 20M new shares out of 113M existing shares, or a dilution of 17.7%.
At a higher PPS of $3.50, $50M of new shares would equate to 14.3M new shares or 12.7% dilution.
That will be supplemented with cash on-hand plus whatever old warrants get redeemed between now and when they need the cash at the exercise price of $2.255 per warrant. Last time price went up to the mid-3s, about 1.6M warrants got redeemed. So that would be approximately 1.6 x 2.25 = $3.6M for a similar number of warrants redeemed once PPS gets high enough to motivate warrant holders again.
Toups answered 2 questions I asked during presentation:
(1) timeline from signing of acquisition to when new facility earnings will add significantly to quarterly income?
Timeline was estimated to have letters of intent signed before end of this quarter, close deal next quarter, and then earnings from the new facility would begin in the first quarter of 2012 (i.e., starting July 1, 2011 quarter).
(2) Would LPH consider payment to the acquired company with shares instead of selling shares at a discount on the open market?
He wasn't sure he understood the question. He just said it would probably be a mixture of cash on-hand and shares.
I don't mind someone predicting macro gloom and doom. However, when they take a specific stock and state innaccuracies regarding past performance I will call them out.
Hacking into chinese websites: Punishable by death?
Sangs credibility is so far in the gutter his instablog can't even push 20 cents down on PPS. It was a stunning blow when SeekingAlpha removed/demoted his articles after so many people proved fabrication
Hmmm it looks red on the E*Trade chart volume for those timeframes. Very odd that a 33.2K sell at 3:45pm and a 94.7K sell at 3:47pm both show on the charts, yet Glen's buy blocks around that general timeframe don't even appear visible on the chart as either green or black. Only one 10K black trade at 3:51pm.
Yeah that was a big RED block not a GREEN block. Your point is?
My point is why in the heck is anyone selling large blocks on this earnings report? LPH came right in where we all expected.
Yet there was one huge sell at 10am and another huge sell at 3:51pm. Any opinions - maybe Zester's rich aunt is shorting again?
Someone shaking the tree just before the close