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Anyone who thinks low volume means no buyout, look at the volume of AVXS on Friday, it was the second lowest volume day all year. Then look what happened this morning.
Thanks TC nice work. IMO it's clear a buyout or some type of change of control is happening and soon considering the majority of the management team is apparently no longer at the company. The question is, if there is a buyout, at what price. Hopefully at least $10/$500m.
One factor that could potentially slightly lower the buyout price is the clinical hold. The majority of ADXS' management team seemingly has been pushed out of the company already, allegedly as part of some change of control in the works. However, if the buyout had not been finalized, the buyer could take the stance, we will wait until the clinical hold is resolved. ADXS make take the counter position, we have only a shell of our management team now, we need to finalize the deal as soon as possible to put your people in place. The buyer may take the hard line and say, given the risk of the clinical hold, we will sign now before the hold is resolved only at a buyout price of $8. All said, I think it would pass, given we are at $1.69 currently and the alternative to a buyout is for ADXS to do another crippling dilution, this time at $1.50.
Or perhaps the signs pointing toward a buyout are only apparent to those with an education level higher than a GED.
If our theory is right, our days posting on the ADXS Board may be limited.
Evidence points to a buyout or change of control soon. If there is a buyout, the sale price is anyone's guess at this point.
Of course $1 billion to sell the company would pass considering we just gave away 20% of the company for $20 million.
Yea but Kite had better results than ADXS. When Kite was at our stage its valuation was already in the billions.
Agreed Batermere. I think a deal is in the works, but my best guess is it will be between $10/$500m and at the high end if we are fortunate $20/$1b.
They said they needed to have at least a years cash on hand going into their quarter or they risked having to file in their report they were "a going concern". If the deal hadnt been signed then, then ADXS needed to raise cash from a compliance perspective. Also, I bet Amgen would have a hard time justying paying a hefty buyout premium to ADXS if it were labeled a going concern from an audit perspective.
The company and its shareholders/owners have the same interest. You can also argue selling is in the best interest of patients as well, getting the platform in more capable hands to get to market faster especially given ADXS management missteps. I think the only entity that benefits at this point from continuing to dilute and stay independent is management as they collect more salary and benefits - that's was Dans plans and a reason why he was pushed out.
Do you understand how dilutive selling 20% of the company at an all time low was to shareholders? Guess what if they don't sell the comonay now, they would be forced to do another similar dilution in three months so they have a year of cash. It's essentially death spiral financing. That's why it's in the best interest of the company amd it's shareholders to sell now.
The company has a duty to shareholders. Dans strategy of going it alone as long as possible wasn't working, just look at the value erosion and tutes that sold. Tony is a deal guy and likely was put in to set up a sale and there will likely not be another permanent CEO.
That would be an amazing end. Seriously, we need to think about where to put our proceeds if a sale us announced. You mentioned AUPH? Don't know it.
Exactly that's why I think a buyout is happening as I write this post. Sheer coincidence 5 of the 8 people most senior at the company quit on their own at the same time? Highly unlikely, but as you point out if they did leave on their own and there is no buyout then the compnay is in a state of desperation. I don't think that's the case.
There are 52 million shares outstanding after the last dilution so $1b is approx $20. Even is you add the warrants once you net our cash the buyer gets its still approx a $20 share price equating to a $1b sale.
My best guess is if a sale of the company is announced the price will be between $10 and $20/$500m to $1b. I can't see selling under $10 given that the compnay was recapped under O'Connor with investors putting in more than $200m at an average cost basis of $12. I also can't see the compnay staying independent because doing another dilution on terrible terms like the $2 one would dilute the majority of our interests into oblivion. Also, the majority of the management team that runs the company has seemingly left. It's pretty obvious some type of change of control is happening.
Blue, disagree that the longer we wait the better deal we get. We only have around 3 months before we are below a years worth of cash. I think we will be sold before then, per Tony comment that a CEO will be in place by mid year, because if we are forced to do another dilution on terrible that lowers the PPS of any buyout as we're diluted more. Whether we like it or not, the stock has lost 80% of its value and sits at $1.69. Buyers do look at the current price and premium multiples as they negotiate the lowest price they can buy the company. Given the state of value erosion O'Connor left us in, anything over $10 would be a solid outcome.
Agreed, great post Keith. The signs are there to connect the dots. I think something is imminent. How long can the company go in a blackout period not responding to inquires and how can a company intend to stay independent if 5 of its 8 management team no longer are with the company. The question in mind mind is will we see a steeped stake by Amgen for more franchise rights, or buyout and if a buyout at what price. A price of $10 or more is solid, below $10 not a good deal for long term shareholders.
I think we could see a buyout or major transaction/change of control before June. IMO it's immenient because 5 of the 8 person management team no longer appear to be at the company. Also, I doubt IR will go another two months ignoring inquires like they have the last week. Blackout periods typically don't last more than a few weeks before a major transaction is announced.
A lot going on that we don't know given the blackout period. Typically black out periods aren't more than a few weeks. Let's see if Lombardo pulls off a Tobira type buyout, feels like we could see some kind of change of control by the end of April. If the compnay is sold for $20/$1b or higher, I'll be ecstatic. If we're sold between $10 and $20, that would be solid. Below $10 would be a bad deal for long-term sharholders with a cost basis around $12 or more.
A tender offer accepted by at least 50.1% of shareholder is in effect the same thing as a shareholder vote.
If it gets us a higher sale price, not sure anyone will object or cam do anything about it.
Keith I was thinking something similar. The $2 offering could have been part of a creative deal structure mutually beneficial to both ADXS shareholders and Amgen. If TL said for example we need $20/$1b to sell but Amgen says we will pay no more than $15/$750m, the $2 offering to Amgen and the profit on their position allows ADXS to get $20 and Amgen buys us for $750 net of their profit and cash ADXS has.
Google Tobira sale, very complex encouraging sale with contingent value rights that put the sale at up to 19x the stock price at the time of the deal. The stock moved up 700% in response. Hopefully Tony is negotiating this type of deal which gets us our fair value price around $20/$1b. It's reasonable to see it happening because the company and platform is worth that much of it weren't for years of poor management and value erosion under O'Connor, and on an absolute basis $1 is relatively small and justifiable to a BP given the breadth and versatility of our platform.
Agreed Blue, signs point to we are about to get sold. Hopefully, it is for at least $10/$500m. The stock was $8 a year ago. If a sale happens for under $10 that would be a bad deal for shareholders.
Someone posted today they know a friend of Hares who confirmed he is no longer with ADXS.
They don't? Normally if an entity purchases 5% they have to disclose within 10 days. So 5% of ADXS is only a little over 2.5 million shares ($5 million position based on the $2 offering). Noelle said there were reputable investors, but a $5 million or less position is nothing for a fund. If Pharmas are exempt I believe Amgen could have bought it all.
You don't think that 5 of the top 8 execs, the ones that didn't have retention bonuses seemingly have been let go, including the head of regulatory affairs? Why would you remove the head of regulatory affairs during a clincial hold...unless it were part of a change of control of some sort in which that position would be absorbed.
I think if anyone bought the whole block they would have to report it within 10 days.
If Merck is interested in doing a deal, it could be done with Amgen after Amgen acquires ADXS. You don't let go of 5 of your senior most execs without some kind of change of control to fill the void.
When people leave a job they usually don't update their LinkedIn profile right away.
Did you see a lot of Ferraris in the parking lot? $200 million is a lot to blow in fours years. ADXS investor losses, employee gains. Best Place to Work in New Jersey!
Exactly, he received all of his "unvested". The point of unvested warrants is that if someone leaves in his own accord before they vest they loose them. However Dan got all his invested awards because the BOD forced him out. They likely gave him all the unvested rewards so he would leave quietly and not cause any more damage to the compnay than he already caused.
No, this lawsuit has been ongoing and has nothing to do with the current state of affairs at the company.
"The longer this takes,the more shareholders will get."
Unfortunately, the longer it has taken at ADXS the more shareholder value has eroded due to poor management, unfocused strategy and ongoing dilution. I think if we are able to sell now, it would be the best deal for shareholders, because the "more later" argument, which is what O'Connor was trying to do, has been proven wrong.
I saw an article the other day on Seeking Alpha regarding the sale of Ocata (link below). It's worth a read, basically saying that the company's $400m sale at $8.50 represented a loss to most long term shareholders because of the years of dilution that ultimately over-rode any return on investment the company's shareholders received. It's very reminiscient of ADXS. Just look at our stock price now, it's lower than when Tom Moore was CEO from 2006 to 2013. ADXS is much more advanced now so you'd think investors would have seen an ROI but instead they lost money, it goes to show how poor management and ongoing dilution can wipe out what an investors get even if the company is making some progress. Sell it now, TL and Board, which I think is what's happening given the execu exodus and silence.
"Ocata Therapeutics (NASDAQ:OCAT) has just signed a definitive agreement with Astellas Pharma Inc. (OTCPK:ALPMY) which values OCAT shares at $8.50 each. While this is great news for those who purchased shares in recent months, including yours truly, it would merely be break-even for those who have been hanging on since Ocata (then Advanced Cell Technology) announced its long awaited interim results 13 months ago. For those who bought in the run up associated with Nasdaq listing, the month before, or at many other points in the company's past, it represents a sizable loss."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/3675266-lessons-learned-ocata-others
Good questions, it could mean something will be announced within days. IR can't not respond to investors indefinitely either.
That would explain Tony' s recent comment that the CEO will be in place by mid year (hint, we'll be acquired by then and just fired non-core execs and are keeping Sarah around until then but told her she better start looking and maybe write an article about how valuable she is. Amgen said they want Robert and his staff to stay. As for me, I'm 70 and happy to retire when I tender my 100k shares for $20 a share. Yes folks, the old fart hasn't lost his touch, I was able to get a billion from Amgen)
The company is most likely in a quiet period, which would be required if a deal announcement is looming and the acquirer included as part of the deal terms termination of those execs. Don't read into it any more than you have to, because the company is not going to address any questions until the deal is announced publicly.
Good points, Gb. All signs of a narcissist. I agree, the couple times I spoke to him he came across as nice and sincere, but then in his actions he showed he was greedy and acted unethically at times to line his pockets at the expense of his investors. His comment to Blurr is also telling, saying he wouldn't do anything different at ADXS if he could do it again. That is a clear sign of a narcissist. No humility, he can't even acknowledge the mistakes he made and learn from them, let alone offer his investors an apology. That's why I would never invest in another company that he was affiliated with in any way.