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AJ inverse H/S patterns nearly complete on the SP and Naz...perhaps a small dip lower to complete the right shoulder on the Comp...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]hhcayiay[d5][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12,2...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]hhcayiay[d5][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!...
AJ you could be correct....looking at the bigger picture though a move to 90ish could serve to form a right shoulder on the long term chart....here's a chart going back to 1990.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$usd,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[d19900511,20050511][pb50!b200!f][vc...
Jerry thanks for the heads up....potential here for a major move out of a nearly 2 year triangle on the Index.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$btk,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[de][pb50!b200!f][vc60][J50665112...
AJ nice work...my interpretation of the intraday charts mirror your statements here. Pretty sure we are carving out an actionable low with our inverse patterns. P/C readings remain high...bull/bear sentiment readings are close to where bottoms often occur. Here is my take on the USD....looking for further weakness in commodities in the days ahead.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$usd,uu[h,a]decayiay[dd][pf][vc60][ila12,26,9][J48706395...
INNO close to its pivot point here...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=inno,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60]&pref=...
Comp H/S pattern breaking its neckline....here's the update from the setup posted earlier.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[h,a]hhcayiay[d5][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!...
Potential H/S pattern forming on the Comp 10 minute chart....projects to 1940ish.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[h,a]hhcayiay[d5][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!...
Tea nice chart....1975 is a significant level on the Comp as well just above current levels.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[h,a]ehcayiay[d40][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12...
SP triangle update....1175 remains a key pivot point....seeing this same setup on most of the indices.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]hhcayiay[d7][pf][vc60][ila12,26,9][J50016855...
Bullish triangle forming on the SP 500...measures to the 1188-90 area. 10 minute chart....pivot point is 1176-77.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]hhcayiay[d7][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12,26...
SP 500 forming a symmetrical triangle that could get us to our 1188-90 neckline should it clear its 1176-77 pivot.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]hhcayiay[d7][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12,26...
Positiontrader....thats exactly my take as well. Very well stated imo....avoid the noise and stay focused on what the charts are telling us. Some of my colleagues are always worried about this report and that....much less stressful sticking with the charts.
AJ nice backtest of our 2 month downtrendline today on the SP 500 (see below)....added to my SPY position for a move to 1185-95ish. By the time we get there expect some negative divergence to be entrenched on the intraday charts....plan on exiting longs at/around that area and putting on some shorts for a swing to the 1163-75 area to form our "potential" right shoulder in a bigger inverse h/s pattern. So far things are going about as expected.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]ehcayiay[d63][pf][vc60][ila12,26,9][J5020529...
Regards...
AJ lets try this again....here's the Comp double bottom annotated...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!...
And on the SP a potential neckline drawn in...the base that the SP 500 broke out of measures right to that 1190 area. A great spot for a 15-20 point pullback give or take.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!la...
Some back and fill here at/just below this 1962 pivot would be nice...the MM's may need to rebuild their inventory to sell to the retail crowd on the next swing up.
AJ that 2020 area fits with the small double bottom thats formed on the Comp in the chart below should 1962 clear. Wouldnt be surprised to see some back and filling in the morning...looking for 1163 SP to hold on pullbacks.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!....
The indices sure look like bigger picture h/s patterns in the making...drew in a potential neckline at 1190 as you suggested earlier.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!la....
Hey OJ
That false break of 1904 last week served to flush out the last of the week longs and draw in shorts providing a nice hammer and fuel for this move. 1990 is approximately our 50/200 SMA area and close to our 4 month down channel on the Comp....first tag of that level might be worth shorting and watching closely the nature of the pullback off that area. Very nice week here so far from Fridays lows.
BTW I read that a few major brokerages ran out of shares of SPY to short...so I called up my brokerage this morning...and sure enough they were out....first time I remember that happening. Had to double up on my long position as a result of that news.
Check out EBAY...even that dog is turning a corner here...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=ebay,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9][...
AJ our inverse H/S patterns are playing out on cue...here is an update on the Comp....measures to 1975ish.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]hhcayiay[d7][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12,...
AJ nice post....if we were to get that move up on the SP to new highs the weekly would likely setup a nice short scenario of 3 pushes higher per price with 3 lower MACD readings. I love to short that type of setup....now we just have to get the market to comply <g>
The QQQQ's cleared their 35.25 key pivot and I expect higher levels in the week ahead...targeting 36ish. Good to see the Comp take out its one month downtrendline. SP needs to clear out 1165 and the futures indicate that potential for tomorrow. I think its time for the market to show its colors in the next day or two in terms of a volume and breadth move. The conditions are ripe...if it can't get it done soon I may rethink my upside scenario.
>>>I'm kind of leaning against new lower lows here in light of how things appear to be settling in.>>>
AJ I think we've seen our low for a while...at least a couple of weeks given the bullish divergences on the daily charts and the intraday patterns that are currently setting up. I wouldn't be surprised to see us head up post Fed in light of this although with a few expected headfakes along the way. Looking for a week or two of upside net/net here. Key levels I'm watching include 1935 which is where our short term downtrendline comes in on the Comp....1165ish on the SP 500...10268 on the Dow....if those clear we'll have room to run up to 1962-75 area on the Naz....the 50 day on the SP around 1180...and 10375ish on the Dow where its neckline resistance comes into play.
Per your NDX daily take I've been thinking about that as well...most of the daily charts are setting up in similar fashion. As always we shall see....thanks for your insights.
Thanks AJ...tomorrow should be quite an interesting session.
QQQQ intraday inv h/s....measures to 36ish.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=qqqq,uu[h,a]ihcayiay[d5][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9][...
Potential inverse H/S patterns forming on the indices...here's the WLSH...all on the 5/10/15 min charts.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$wlsh,uu[h,a]ihcayiay[d5][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9]....
AJ nice chart...wouldnt surprise me to see us continue to chop out some type of low here similar to May 04 with more back and forth action...as long as the oscillators remain firm/diverge positively I'll hold to a short term up bias. No question it remains a challenging market to say the least!
>>>So apparently the two SIX MONTH downstreaks (2002 and 1984) are irrelevant becuase of a bounce in there? The other five ARE relevant??? That's a totallllllly different thing than saying it's never lost more than 4 months from the top, isn't it?>>>
Hey Freep
Fair comment....I strictly posted that chart for OGM's perusal per the longer term uptrend which remains in tact...I cant account for the author's content although he acknowledges on his site that he has language difficulties. I probably shouldn't have posted his chart with those comments included as I noticed that we had some longer streaks down which contradicted what he wrote. However, it is interesting to view the monthly from such a longer term perspective as there have been only two moves down in the market that lasted for more than 4 months (from what I can garner out of that chart).
Anyway best to you.
Hey Bullet1
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=aapl,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9][...
Here's my take on AAPL....unfortunately the problem here is that the market at large is starting to form some bullish divergences which...should our lateral ranges break up in the market AAPL is likely to go with it. I have played the range in the pennant mostly to the short side but now that its nearing its apex I am out of the position. I prefer to see how the market resolves out of these ranges before moving back to the short side...i have a short term up bias here....longer term down. We shall see....
Choad is Brinker sticking to his 1300 SP call later this year?
AJ covered shorts Friday and went long the indices for a short term swing up. Seeing divergences on the Comp/NDX/SOX and a few other groups.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[de][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ilp14,3,3]...
Tagged the bottom of our down channel on the Comp and reversed on some decent volume.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!...
Expect we could see a week or two of labored upside net/net which will likely set us up for some decent downside action.
OGM depends on your timeframe...how about scaling back some.
http://i.b5z.net/i/u/1631368/i/Nasdaq4m0428.gif
Chart borrowed from Russian Trader.
Hey Newly
To determine a channel after a top or bottom I will use in this case the Top as the start point which was set at year end and start the channel from there....it takes two tops and two lows to set to form a channel. I originally drew up this chart after we got our low at 1904 which set our 2nd low for the channel...the tag and reversal wasn't by coincidence imo on Friday. I believe it to be that technical traders who were following this general channel realized that being at the bottom of the channel it made sense to cover/get long at that low point in the channel in terms of risk/reward. Volume was pretty strong so perhaps thats some form of confirmation. Regardless its not to say our channel won't break as all channels up or down eventually do. However, for now I'm using this as my trading guide on the Comp until one of the top or bottom trendlines gets violated.
Hope that helps....
Osprey thanks....I'm in the same camp. We tagged the bottom of our down channel on the Comp daily and put in bullish divergences on that move leading me to believe we get some mild upside for a week or two. I'm thinking they likely take out some of the shorts on this bounce before we head to lower levels.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!...
AJ both the VIX and VXN look ready to launch here as well...cant get these charts out of my mind <g>
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$vxn,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12,26...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$vix,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[d20040123,20051223][pb50!b200!b20!f...
Should make for an interesting balance of the week.
Naz projects to 1875ish based on the triangle breakdown on the 15 minute chart...that would give us a nice flush that this market is begging for....if we hold some positive divergence on that move I will probably cover my shorts there on the break. Nice tag of our SP 500 neckline which created a nice objective short side entry today.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[h,a]ghcayiay[d10][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12...
Nice short setup on the 10 minute chart...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]hhcayiay[d5][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12,26...
Bullwinkle....you got that right....bear flags all over. Take a look at these.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$rut,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12,2...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$sox,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12,2...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$djushb,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la1...
Probably what stands out most to me here is the recent action in the VIX/VXN....looks like a classic breakout and test of that breakout move here.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$vxn,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12,26...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$vix,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[d20040123,20050423][pb50!b200!b20!f...
Off for some zzzz's. Keep the charts coming!
LOL...Bullwinkle I think you got your point across with that chart....wowza...bear flag city huh???
All charts and setups updated....Burk lets hope we get a push up to our necklines this week...the SOX...BKX...Small Caps...Homebuilders et.al. look like they are forming bearish flag patterns.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID897936
Makes you wonder if anyone actually works there or do they just sell their stock off their laptops all day long <g>
AJ thanks for the kind note and all of your great work. The indices have a wealth of overhead to work through here. I covered a fair amount into our late day push lower towards the bottom of our developing lateral ranges. Still like some of the retail shorts and selected builders. Hoping for another push up to test our neckline areas. Agree with your take on the volatility and price action per the 2000-2 markets. Here are a couple of charts you may find of interest...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12,26...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$indu,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!l...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12,26...
AJ I take it your projection is based on the setup on the 60 minute double bottoms that more or less measure to the necklines on the indices. Take a look at the SOX and BKX charts....not much has changed in these two key groups.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$sox,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9][...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$bkx,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][J4780...