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They've been busy but I don't think it was Praetorian buying today. If it was, we'll see it show up on the insider reports. My guess is some other institution is acquiring a seat at the table.
I started a Yahoo portfolio to track a handful of them, but haven't tracked it long enough to draw any conclusions.
Insider buying...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=ICTL.OB
Praetorian took another nibble last week.
Don Coxe made some lengthy comments on natgas in the second half of the call today. He thinks there is a good case to be made that it is the next commodity to make a big move up.
The call just finished so it will probably not be available for replay for a bit, but the url is:
http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/
Well, I don't see 1.24 but one never knows. The stock is rising on rising volume, which is a good sign. We are close to overbought territory on the daily chart (RSI-wise), but sometimes most of the power in the move comes after the stock is already overbought. I'd look for it to test the 25 on a retrace, which is more like in the 1.40's. The stock is sitting on the 100 EMA right now, the 25 and 50 have turned up. If price can be sustained over the 100, then we will have a 25/50 crossover making another technical buy signal.
stockrush - if it's any consolation, the Fall of 2005 is when I bought into DEJ as well. Been kind of a bumpy ride, but I like what I am seeing lately. Things are coming together nicely.
drillman - that is my understanding as well. I think the numbers will be very good. Praetorian would not keep buying stock after investing $3.2MM without good reason, imo.
What the last couple of years have demonstrated to enthusiasts of uranium stocks is the difficulty of locating an economic deposit. Yes, Titan/Dejour have a very good footprint in the Athabasca, no that is not a guarantee of exploration success. But without land, a discovery is even more unlikely. If they find an economic deposit, even 40% ownership could be significant.
I look at it this way, Titan is just icing on the cake. I am not looking at the primary business as the driver of stock value, but if Titan comes up with something, that's a bonus.
As far as the deal with JOGMEC goes, I don't think it is structured all that differently from comparable deals. Maybe it's the case that they are all bad deals, but the environment for financing for these companies is not as red hot as it was a couple of years ago.
For example, Fission Energy recently closed a deal with KEPCO, whereby KEPCO can earn up to 50% of the Waterbury project in the Athabasca for C$14MM. There are milestones that trigger earn-in percentages and exploration expenditure obligations, just like the Titan deal with JOGMEC.
It's impossible to get a rich valuation on any prospective property without evidence of a deposit. It's a chicken and egg problem. You can't increase the value without a deposit, you can't find a deposit without exploring for it, you can't explore for it without money. And the guys putting up money in the sector these days are companies like KEPCO, JOGMEC and Sumitomo. These guys are going to control their risk by staging their investment commitment over time and based on meeting milestones. It's only prudent. Yes it is a small amount of money for them, but my guess is that they will all be making multiple deals and the odds of exploration success are not great.
Uranium is not a rare element, but finding an economic uranium deposit is not easy.
edit
Looks like this is becoming the model. Strategic investors are stepping in to finance junior uraniums. We've seen KEPCO do two deals in the Athabasca, Sumitomo do a very large deal with Strathmore and now this deal between Titan and JOGMEC. $9 million is a lot of money for Titan, but is only 1% of JOGMEC's annual revenue.
Temporarily sold out and backordered. No worries...
Just guessing, but maybe the guys doing all the insider buying recently are not keen on having the stock promoted at this particular time.
Well the stock has recovered well considering the trading halt we went through, but I suspect that may have dampened some of the momentum/enthusiasm. They should now have the financial resources to make progress on a number of fronts and I expect that this will be reflected in a higher share price, but I don't know what the timeframe will be.
Debate on ICTL price target...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25325773
I agree that there is a saturation point for any of these products, although the demographics are working in their favor. They have a plan to incorporate retail channels as well. I see that Ron Popeil's ovens are still advertised on TV, so I think it is possible for a successful infomercial to run for a long time ("Set it...and forget it!").
My guess is that the plans they had to expand to retail channels have been deferred by the overwhelming success they are experiencing with HSN. The company is still very small and I think they have their hands full at the moment. Keep in mind that HSN carved out 25 slots for DW in the November/December months, so Q4 should be very good. Just one of those slots saw almost $500K of product go out the door. I imagine that was one of the better showings, but it does show what is possible.
Where are you getting the 100% growth assumption? That seems low to me given the recent history and the plans and resources that they now have in place to accelerate revenue growth.
Other things that I anticipate will help to create value are moving to a senior exchange, building out the management team, introducing new product lines, leveraging the infrastructure that they have now created.
I was very skeptical when I first heard about this company almost exactly a year ago. It seemed like a big joke. But the more I dug into it, the harder it became to argue that the stock wouldn't be a huge money maker if they did what they said they were going to do. By now, it is the 2nd largest position in my portfolio, showing an overall 97% gain.
They have not achieved everything that they have said they would do within the desired timeline, but they have made significant progress on several fronts. I think this recent financing with Praetorian is key to achieving progress on some of the fronts where they have lagged. Fortunately, it will not take a long time to find out, we should see results fairly soon, I would think.
Well I am thinking $4.90 for this move, but I am thinking double digits in 2008. This will require that they continue to meet their sales goals, but given the funding they just raised, I believe that they should be well positioned to do that.
Cripes, if you waited another hour or so you could have had your $3 target by the close! How can you have such a hot hand with ice in your veins?
Cease trade was lifted earlier this week, no big deal, it seems. The stock has recovered well and closed out the week on good volume at 3.01. The trading at the end of the day seemed...quite enthusiastic.
The best thing that I can say about the Cease Trade Order is that it enabled a buddy of mine to get some shares under $2. I told him he was dreaming, apparently his dreams are powerful. More than mine anyway!
Here is a promo piece on ICTL...
Investing in Microcaps
By Stephen Oakes
Wednesday Dec 05, 2007
This OTC stock trades for about $3.35 per share and is poised to break
one 52-week high after another. Stephen Oakes, editor of Volume Spike,
explains.
Investing in Microcaps: A speculative play institutions have yet to
discover
If you wanted to invest in a speculative micro-cap play with great
promise, look no further than International Commercial Television,
ticker symbol I-C-T-L. This OTC stock trades for about $3.35 per share
and is poised to break one 52-week high after another. Not only has
this company surpassed its revenue from last year, but has managed to
do so in less than six months!
http://www.taipanfinancialnews.com/TFN/videopages/HotStockVideos/20071205tfnhotstockpick.html
Well we will just have to wait and see about that. All I know is that I have had a couple of other companies I own cease traded for non-compliance and it was not a big deal in hindsight. I have no reason at this time to think that this will be different.
As long as we are talking about things that will have major, long-term effects on the stock, what about the financing that the company just announced? What effect will that have? To have capital for more product, more airtime, new product lines, upgraded backoffice systems, hopefully a new web site, these things could be helpful.
A cease trade order is when a regulatory agency, the British Columbia Securities Commission in this case, orders that trading in a particular security be suspended until such time as specific requirements are satisfied. Only residents of BC are impacted, if you live anywhere else then you can continue to buy or sell the stock.
The BCSC is insisting that certain paperwork be filed in conjunction with a private placement done earlier this year. The company believes it is exempt from certain filing requirements as only accredited investors were involved in the placement, but if the BCSC wants the paperwork, my guess is that there is little choice but to produce it. Whether certain exemption claim forms will suffice or whether a full prospectus will need to be produced will determine the amount of time that the CTO will be in effect. That's my understanding of the situation anyway.
ICTV Closes $3,261,500 Financing
Wednesday December 5, 10:27 am ET
BAINBRIDGE ISLAND, WASHINGTON--(MARKET WIRE)--Dec 5, 2007 --
International Commercial Television, Inc. (OTC BB:ICTL.OB - News)
("ICTV" or "The Company") a premier consumers products company
employing the strength of revenue generating, prominently profiled
infomercial campaigns to market and brand unique "Fountain of Youth"
products to the global consumer through multi-channels of distribution
including Direct Response Television ("DRTV"), retail and the internet
is please to announce the following.
ICTV has been in funding discussions since November 2nd 2007 with
Praetorian Capital Management LLC ("PCM") a US based investment
manager and has closed a private placement consisting of 1,482,500
units and proceeds of $3,261,500.00 which have been received by the
Company.
Each unit consists of one common share in the capital of the Company
priced at $2.20 and one share purchase warrant with each warrant
entitling PCM to purchase one additional common share in the capital
of the Company at a price of $3.00 per share until December 3, 2010
and all units are subject to SEC Rule 144 resale restrictions.
The proceeds of the financing will be used for expanding inventory
levels of the Derma Wand, purchasing additional television media, new
product development, the Cell-Rx US market launch in the 1st quarter
of 2008 and general working capital purposes.
About the Derma Wand
The Derma Wand is a highly effective, patented and unique in-home skin
care electronic beauty device that helps reduce the appearance of fine
lines and wrinkles, and assists in cosmetically improving overall skin
appearance.
About Cell RX
The Company has acquired the worldwide rights through a license
agreement to the "Cell -RX." , a unique and highly effective skincare
system from Smart Skincare Inc. The key ingredient of Cell-Rx is
Nano-C Powder which uses a patented nanotechnology to preserve the
potency of nature's most powerful anti-oxidant and collagen builder -
Vitamin C. The Nano-C starts as a powder but when applied to the
consumer's skin surface the Nano-C becomes a cream which is instantly
absorbed right into the skin and there by more effectively employing
the dynamic skin rejuvenating properties of the Nano-C powder.
About International Commercial Television, Inc.
Headquartered in Bainbridge Island Washington, International
Commercial Television, Inc. is a rapidly expanding global consumer
products company marketing unique and effective "Fountain of Youth"
products with distribution channels in place in over 35 countries
worldwide. The Company utilizes a distinctive marketing strategy and
multi-channel distribution model to develop, market and sell health
and beauty products under its Derma Wand and DermaVital Skincare
brands. Marketing and distribution of the Company's products is
through infomercials, live home shopping television, mass retailers,
spas and salons, online shopping and various other forms of distribution.
Forward-Looking Statements
The matters discussed in this press release may contain
"forward-looking statements" (as such term is defined in the Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995). The Company relies on the
safe harbor provisions of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act
of 1934, as amended, and Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as
amended, apply to forward-looking statements made by ICTV. The actual
results that ICTV achieves may differ materially from any
forward-looking statements due to such risks and uncertainties. These
forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, and ICTV
assumes no obligation to update this information. Readers are urged to
carefully review and consider the various disclosures made by ICTV in
its reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission that
attempt to advise interested parties of the risks and factors that may
affect its business.
The kind of volume we have seen over the last week or so does not look like retail to me, so imo, that means it is fund/institutional money that has been coming in to the stock. The timing for the cease trade order from the BCSC could not have been worse, but I am hoping that issue gets resolved quickly.
At any rate, we have news this morning that the company has raised a few million dollars. It sounds like the holiday season will be busy, the numbers for Q4 should be very good. Also, it sounds like this funding will enable them to launch Cell-Rx soon. Now we wait...
Of course there is a reason for the run up! Someone with deep pockets has decided to buy a lot of it. HSN is selling a lot of product, this holiday season should be impressive, imo. Considering the tiny float, quite a bit of it has turned over in the last week...
mcg - Again, thanks for the history, it's useful for those of us who are new(er) to this company. I believe that the company is still short of the AMEX listing requirements (min. share price and possibly market cap). The requirements are easy to find if you Google "AMEX listing requirements". I don't know about the NASDAQ Small Cap market, but I suspect that it may be easier to meet those, at least right now. From what I heard, ICTL is talking to a large financial institution that is encouraging them to consider the NASDAQ as opposed to the AMEX. Hopefully we will know more soon!
tsl
mcg - thanks for your comments. I am curious why you believe that the company is a long way from graduating to a more senior exchange. The company has stated its intention of doing so this year and has indicated either AMEX or NASDAQ Small Cap as where they would list.