Da Boyz...like Monsters.Inc. there'll be a movie made one of these days...;o)

[edit] and no, it won't be a remake of American Pyscho.

alzo, ROOM...whew!

world spot PoG = 319.70 x 320.20, down 1.30 from NY close. now we need a little tankage in the spot crudes and we might have ourselves a nice little bearbounce.

[edit] unable to access briefing.com since about noon pst. anyone else see this?

re: maxpain:

"I thought the max pain only really worked in the bigger option traded stuff."

yes, it's a point often made but seldom heeded; the rule of thumb is that maxpain really doesn't become effective until around the 20K total calls or puts level for front strike months. most effective w/cubes as trend indicator.

...fwiw, jmhao, bwdik...etc.

cheers,
larry

re: auto analysis/GS: equally interesting is their current advocacy of savings over spending. somewhat counter to the normal trend approaching the last quarter of the year.

excerpt from GS Weekly Insight for Sep 12.

"Autos: After the automotive boom.

We believe consumers need to save more and spend less; automaker balance sheets may not
support extraordinary demand much longer. Subsequent hangover in profit and pension may
drain automotive cash. Risks increase if investors decide not to put more capital into a negative
cash flow proposition.
Record-low interest rates and a home-mortgage bubble are propping up consumer spending. The
Big Three are taking full advantage, supporting car sales with unprecedented incentives and a
record financing market share of own-make vehicles, growing their finance subsidiary balance
sheets.
Our Economic Research Group suggests that consumers ultimately need to save more and spend
less. Spending growth needs to slow to bring the saving rate back into equilibrium. Following the
present refinancing boom, borrowing growth should slow as home values peak and mortgage
rates bottom. A spending slowdown should hit autos hard, because the need to buy cars is low.
Automaker balance sheets may not support the boom much longer. Tangible auto equity is
negative, as finance subs need equity to support growth. The finance subs may need equity
infusions to sustain strong sales, but automakers may not be able to provide it. Capping finance
sub growth would likely hurt sales. Eroding auto equity to support finance sub growth may limit
access to debt capital, also hurting sales.
The post-boom hangover may drain automaker cash balances. Pension returns of 6% and
ongoing demand of 15.0 mn is realistic. General Motors’ (GM, $45.75, NR) cumulative cash flow
could be negative $8.7 bn, and its auto cash could fall to $6.3 bn by 2005 under this scenario.
Ford’s (F, $11.05, MP) cumulative cash flow could be negative $15.4 bn, and its cash could fall
to $7.1 bn. F’s cash position seems more tenuous because it may have a $4-bn liability to Ford
Credit for incentives.
Risk grows if investors decide not to provide more capital. Sustaining the auto boom requires
capital to fund finance sub growth. We highlight the risk that automakers will not generate
sufficient equity and the impact of subsequent negative cash flows. The risk increases if outside
investors decide that they are no longer willing to lend to or invest in a negative cash flow
proposition, particularly at the peak of the auto demand cycle.

disclaimer
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and/or an affiliate is currently acting as a financial advisor in
connection with General Motors Corp. proposed business combination with Echostar
Communications Corp. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and/or an affiliate will receive a fee for
its financial advisory services. This research report is not intended to (1) provide voting advice,
(2) serve as an endorsement of any proposed transaction, or (3) result in the procurement,
withholding, or revocation of a proxy."

hope this is useful...

larry

kev, re: FOBE's, that image produced a couple shivers...

recall, back in the day, the argument was made that UUNET was the absolutely untouchable jewel in worldcon's crown...

...wonder who's waiting patiently, quietly, sittin on tons of bucks, ready to pick it off for next to nothing...

larry

so, what does it indicate? major sunspots? alien invasion? i want to believe, SR, what's it all mean???

helluva fight in CSCOland @13.86, might be pinned in place for big dogz sell on close orders, if not, compx 1320(+-) looks pretty firm today. jmhao, bwdik...

larry

thanks, AKvetch...so he went from scientist to trader to talking head. funny old life, innit?

larry

lol! about the last time i watched cnbs, Louis Navaller(sp) was telling us that GX was a dog w/fleas...what a melancholy memory...

larry

thanks, mlsoft.

re: USPI, seems to be broad fallout in healthcare sector from HRC news this morning regarding reduced medicare reimbursements.

this continues to be a very persistent demon: how are costs to be managed vs. growing consumer base?

don't know answer, don't know if there is an answer, just more reactionary budget whacking from congress. although, i suppose this too shall pass...(0.5g)

larry

just curious, isn't joe kernan a biotek guy by training? i know he's been a trader but his interest, best i recall, always seemed to be in the bio sector.

larry

[edit] have NO clue what relevance this may have to his market sense.

PIXR back to 50! what a studly-dudly, you PIXR bulls are the best, warm regards to you all. TA trumping FA...so far...

larry

no firsthand experience w/MRVL products. although, i'm amazed at their relative strength in a very expensive sector. they must have solid b2b numbers going forward...

re: MRVL,
{fwiw, bwdtk, itho...}

"23-Aug-02
Marvell Tech (MRVL) 21.62 +2.64: Shares of Marvell Technology are bidding up solidly this morning following the company's strong second quarter results released last night. Marvell makes digital and mixed-signal integrated circuits for both the data storage and broadband communications markets. Despite the well documented issues in the semiconductor industry, Marvell has continued to generate solid fundamental growth. For its just-reported second quarter, revenue growth came in at 74% on an annualized basis and 21% sequentially. At the same time, second quarter earnings came in at $0.11 per share, exceeding the consensus by two cents. Looking forward, the company expects sales to rise another 10% sequentially in the October quarter -- management attributes the substantial revenue ramp to market share gains in storage as well as the adoption of Gigabit Ethernet. Fundamentally, the shares currently trade at about 50.0x this year's estimates and 29.6x forward projections. This suggests the longer-term investor will likely be hesitant to add aggressively at current prices. Yet from a technical perspective, MRVL does look well situated to move higher in the near term. This morning, MRVL gapped above its 50-day simple moving average at 20.10 which also approximates the 50% retracement of its recent sell wave at 19.85. From current levels, look for notable subsequent resistance around 25.00 which marks congestion over the prior three months. In terms of downside support, we wouldn't want to see MRVL break back below its 50-day simple moving average at 20.10 That would likely signal more consolidation is necessary before the shares can sustain any move higher. -- Mike Ashbaugh, Briefing.com"

"...though I find his anarchic ramblings somewhat lowbrow"

lol! equally, he finds your obsessive fastidiousness somewhat pointless. although he will admit you have decent power in the left hand. somewhat of a tender jaw, though.

cheers,
larry

ps, anyone feel CSCO is climbing the wall of thin air here?

of course you disagree, Patrick,

you're probably even feeling a sense of mild annoyance at being distracted by the flutterings of all the stick figures who clutter your path. but you'll soon be feeling much better because Tyler Durden is coming to visit.

it's a good day to make some money.

[edit] btw, i want to thank all those who bought PIXR w/great conviction into the close yesterday. your efforts are appreciated.

cheers,
larry

AKvetch, re: oil embargoes: it wouldn't be pretty, but, we've survived it before and we'll survive it again, if we have to.

anyway, US energy factors have redistributed quite substantially in the last 25 years. the majority of imported oil product is refined for transportation and chemicals, while most electrical power for industry and residential use is generated via domestic coal, hydro, NG and nukes.

the thing is, for every 10,000 morons living life at 5mpg, there are 2 very smart humans compensating w/their 100,000mpg brain power. the result is a slim bias in favor of survival for a few more years rather then an immediate plunge into entropic heat death.

that ratio isn't fair, of course, but that's life here on earth.

"... for I am simply...not....there."

oh, you're somewhere, Pat, no doubt about it.

i must intrude here, because Patrick is much too vain...

...to reveal his trade secret, so i will. his alias and market persona have been borrowed from the film which was based on the Brett Easton Ellis novel, "American Pyscho", which generated, in equal measure, muted praise and laconic disgust. compared to the original character, we're really dodging the bullet, so to speak...(0.5g)

btw, for those who feel it's a sin to short, please buy more PIXR, thank you.

larry

syl, any position on BRCM? TIA,

larry

re: BRCD, cisco announced it will have a competing fiber switch product by end of year. unclear actual impact on BRCD sales. conservative sentiment currently favors cisco in net switch space. this may or may not be valid, but, cisco has a hell of a lot more cash than brocade.

[edit]"16-Aug-02
13:20 ET Cisco Systems: fibre channel intro could weigh on Brocade, McData (CSCO) 14.59 +0.23: Merrill Lynch says that CSCO may be preparing to introduce its initial fibre channel switching products to its sales force next week at the co's annual kick-off meeting; although these products may not become generally available for sale until the end of 2002 or beginning of 2003 at the earliest, the announcement could weigh on BRCD and MCDT, depending on the details."

larry

"I am not going to believe that any analyst worth his salt did not know the true value of WCOM in January this year"

concur 100% and while unlikely to be convicted in a court of law, Jack Grubman is exceptionally guilty in the court of public opinion.

larry

is this one good to go here..?

"09-Aug-02
Microtune (TUNE) 4.09 +0.29: SG Cowen sees upside opportunity following stock's 10% fall on co's earnings miss on 7/22; in a pre-open note, recommends current levels as a strong buying opportunity. Firm points out TUNE's large number of incremental growth oppys (set-top boxes, cable head-ends, Bluetooth) and believes the FCC's ruling on digital TVs should accelerate co's digital TV tuner opportunity, and its conventional TV turner opportunity .. adds that co has $2.84 in cash/sh with book value at $3.44/sh." from Briefing.com

George, is there a Korea fund you like?

TIA,
larry

re: prob specific 2 ELX, that's why QLGC relatively stable. increasing recognition that HBA(ELX) and switch(BRCD) functionalities getting siliconized(QLGC)...whole storage sector getting re-thunk cheaper, better, cheaper. my pref is QLGC/IBM for one stop IT shop. fwiw, bwdik, jmho.

larry

LOL! u go girl...sock it to 'im. (vbhaha)

"09-Aug-02
12:40 ET Nasdaq smells of garbage : A huge disparity today on the Nasdaq between new highs (13) and new lows (97). However, a closer look reveals that there are few names of any significance to be found on the Nasdaq list of new lows. Biggest names are ERICY and PALM, both of which trade under $1 now. Most respectable name is PAYX. Many of the stocks distorting the Naz New high/low ratio are hype-era IPOs that are running low on cash and being left for dead. Among the more memorable names that can now be had for under $0.50 are CMRC (all-time high $165), PRSF (high $86), KOREA (high $84), SGNT (high $45)." from Briefing.com

a candidate for honorable mention in the Darwin awards, category: "margin call behaviour".

"August 9, 2002
Surgeon Who Left an Operation to Run an Errand Is Suspended
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

BOSTON, Aug. 8 — Massachusetts has indefinitely suspended a surgeon's medical license because he left a patient anesthetized on an operating table with an open incision in his back while he went to a bank several blocks away.

The patient was not harmed, but the surgeon, Dr. David C. Arndt, created an immediate threat when he left the patient at Mount Auburn Hospital in Cambridge to go to a bank in Harvard Square, the State Board of Registration in Medicine said on Wednesday.

"I've never seen anything quite like this," said Nancy Achin Sullivan, executive director of the board.

An investigator for the board who interviewed the operating room staff and other hospital employees said the incident took place on July 10.

Dr. Arndt, an orthopedic surgeon who is a 1992 graduate of Harvard Medical School, asked a nurse several times during the six-hour surgery to call his office to see if his paycheck had arrived. Around 5:30 p.m., with the surgery about three-quarters completed, another surgeon stepped into the operating room and handed Dr. Arndt his pay envelope.

Dr. Arndt, 45, asked that surgeon, who was not credentialed to perform the surgery and had not scrubbed in, to wait there for five minutes while he took a break, the investigator said. The other surgeon told the board he assumed Dr. Arndt was going to the restroom.

While he was gone, Dr. Arndt did not answer several pages. He told the board's investigator that he regretted his actions and had "exercised remarkably horrible judgment."

Dr. Arndt said that the surgery had run longer than he expected and that he had to get the check to the bank because he was in "a financial crisis" and had to pay bills.

Mount Auburn officials suspended him the day after the incident, and reported the matter to the state board.

In suspending Dr. Arndt's license, the board called him a "serious threat to the health, safety and welfare of the public."

His lawyer, Claudia Hunter, said today that Dr. Arndt would appeal the suspension. He has a right to a hearing, but no date has been set.

"He regrets his actions of July 10 and apologizes to his patient," Ms. Hunter said. "At the time of the events, the patient was stable and the surgery was successful.""

from Briefing.com:

"06-Aug-02
Thomas Weisel on FCC mandate : According to firm, mandate by Federal Communications Commission (FCC) dictating that all televisions be equipped with a digital tuner by Y06, would force a major replacement cycle for both televisions and set-top boxes, benefiting Broadcom (BRCM 17.48 +1.74) and Silicon Image (SIMG 4.94 +0.40). BRCM could see renewed growth in its set-top box business where it supplies a wide range of silicon from tuner to modem to back-end processing. SIMG could benefit because it focuses exclusively on digital communication between set-tops and DVD players, and digital TVs. Firm maintains Buy rating on BRCM and Attractive rating on SIMG"

Intel would dearly love to blow BRCM right out of this space. This is a verrrrry juicy market.

"Dow +313, Nasdaq +54, S&P +32.63 : [BRIEFING.COM] Stocks are considerably higher at mid-day, bolstered by broad-based bargain hunting interest... While it is difficult to put a finger on the exact reason for the sudden change in sentiment, several factors-- some more believable than others-- have been cited for the rally... One factor that seems to be getting plenty attention is the reported enthusiasm for the possibility of more Fed easing... Briefing.com, for its part, thinks that is the least believable reason for the strong advance as the market's dismal performance of late has been linked, among other things, to concerns that a Fed easing would send a disconcerting message about the state of the economy... Moreover, after 475 basis points of easing already, the necessity for additional Fed easing to promote economic growth at this juncture hardly seems like a rallying point... Be that as it may, it is being talked about... The rally, in our estimation, has more to do with a simple rebound effort from a near-term oversold condition... Remember, prior to today's action, the Dow and S&P had dropped 8.0% and 8.4%, respectively, in the past three sessions; and the Nasdaq had fallen 10.3% in the past four sessions... Contributing to the bargain hunting interest have been reports of a German asset allocation shift out of bonds and into equities, which looks apparent in the 6.0% gain in Germany's DAX Index... At the same time, such chatter has prompted some U.S. investors to reconsider current prices on stocks and bonds and their long-term return potential... Suffice it to say, there may be some asset allocation out of bonds and into equities in the U.S. market as well with traders taking advantage of the equity market's near-term oversold condition... All in all, it has been a one-way market to this point with buyers in command of the action... Leading the gains are the technology, financial, transportation, retail, drug, consumer goods, oil drilling, homebuilding, and cyclical shares... Within the Dow, McDonald's (MCD -0.20) is the only component showing a loss for the day... "

km, when i started w/Q i paper traded for a few weeks to get the feel. bear in mind, they're high beta horses and very tempramental, you may or may not get a handle on all of them, but, imho, you don't need to. personally, i like QLGC, CCMP and BRCD. i also like PHTN and AMCC. traders like to trade them. that's probably the bottom line on Q's and Q-like equities: traders like them. even in the worst of downdrafts, one or more of these guys will be green.

the best of British luck to you, sir

cheers,
larry

kmjb9763 re: HAL vs. Zeev,

in the short strokes, HAL initially calls a trading channel which may be an uptrend, or a downtrend (or a whipsaw; hey, it happens. g/ng).

Zeev, OTOH, plays in the channels regardless of trend. DON'T try this at home friends, unless you're VERY familiar w/your trading stable.

as a rule, Larry D. buys/sells the current 'Q's based on HAL's call. when it works it's awesome, baby, awesome.

will it work now? gotta ask yourself one question: do you feel lucky?

cheers,
larry H.

lol! great site, hiker, thanks.

"The government who robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul." - George Bernard Shaw

a little dose of GBS never hurts...much

larry

The value is in TimeWarner movies -Harry Potter, for example-and its film libraries: Warner Brothers, Ted Turner Universal library-very deep, magazines, books, music, etc.

the dialup AOL business is probably a negative dollar value. all the AOL execs are booted, TW is now running the show and Steve Case has been silent, to date.

wouldn't be surprised to see it go the way of netscape and MSN.COM ends up w/the subscriber base.

jmo, bwdik, etc...

larry

joemoney, have to consider that the value of AOL is completely in TimeWarner. it may indeed be a merger in the process of falling apart, but, there IS solid value in TimeWarner. it'll be very interesting to see how the internals of this resolve.

larry

i also listened and my take is no particular enthusiasm for any of them, wrt/oversupply, no pricing power, and stagnant debt loads. general opinion seemed to be no real demand for at least another year.

larry