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You make a good point. If you were really after the magic value of $1.00 it would be safer to go for a 7:1 or 10:1. They must be pretty confident that the SP will go up, or the whole thing is a scam to get the SP up so they can get more when they make an open market offering.
A R/S now at a ratio that gets the SP to over $1.00 is interesting. Could portend an attempt to move to a different exchange or get the eye of some institutional investors who generally won't touch anything under $1.00.
I believe April 20th, 2012 was the last time HDY closed over $1.00 without closing again over $1.00 for thirty days. Does anyone else read this differently?
Not seeing much of anything that pushes it one way or the other. Unless you were expecting something phenomenal, I don't see much here unexpected.
Where are you finding this. Did not see any financials that were negative.
Also, much activity in the drilling arena. Not sure what you are looking at.
Someone or some group certainly put a lot of effort into trying to bolster the SP of this one. Certainly institutional buyers were probably not behind the run up since they generally shy away from any stock under a $1. I suspect it will stabilize here or fall back into the upper 50s but I doubt it will shift much without more news. Perhaps some of the 3M traded was insider buying. We will see.
Not sure how you see that the threat of a reverse split has subsided.
What ever happened to the new valuations? Have they been included somewhere in a company presentation and I just missed it?
Have to admit that Lord Owen's purchase is a little large to be a publicity play. You can buy a lot of publicity for $400K.
Still, it was not enough to sustain an increase in SP above .55 let alone get us to $1 so the listing issue is still out there. I would think that there is more in the works. Hopefully next week something will spill at the conference. It will certainly spur confidence if the let us mere mortals know what the plan is.
I don't think this is going anywhere above .25 until there is profits from production that significantly exceed management's payroll and bonuses. Right now they are bleeding the company dry, not reinvesting. If they were looking to sell they would be investing in 3D's.
Something good needs to come out of the EOY, otherwise we languish here. JMHO.
Something happened that made a limited group of investors believe there was value, but it went no farther than that. Perhaps the listing issue is resolved. Perhaps not. Only time will tell.
This is buying in anticipation of news on valuation that should be out with the annual report on the 15th. Whether or not it stays up above .24 (my personal pre-meeting guess at a price) or it drops back down is a matter of the company actually says in the report.
A couple more big buys and we will be over .20.
Sometimes the Fools win out. I think you picked a winner, I just want to wait to see how it plays out. It will still be a great buy at .55 or .60 if I miss the bottom, no reverse split materializes, and it starts to spike.
In any case, good luck to you.
Only Fools buy when there is a possibility that the stock will be delisted or that there will be a reverse split ... and waiting until the next annual meeting is not a solution.
This is actually sad. Management is going to let this fall into the .40s or lower before they pull the trigger. Just get it over with already. Then we can start to move forward. Everyone knows there is value here, even if only riding the wave of the enthusiasm associated with drilling. I can't believe they are letting this happen.
I have sold everything but a token holding at .58 a few days back and will wait until the solve the listing issue to buy back in. I could be wrong, but I don't think so.
In the short term, no reason for this pattern to change.
So, about a 15% drop since the CC. Wonder if the charts predicted that coming. Guessing she will continue to spiral until the company makes an announcement.
Put in my order at .16. Lets see if it gets filled this week.
FUD will continue to drag this one down until they clear up the exchange issue. I just hope they don't wait until it is in the .40s to make an announcement.
Don't blame the board. Look at the market reaction. I am not talking about risk associated with drilling, I am talking about risk associated with a reverse split. Exploring options is not an answer. Not be delisted means they have limited options, the most viable being a reverse split. It wasn't just what he said - it was what he said tied to the reality of the situation tied to the options available.
Volume and price indicates that there was nothing said that was earth shattering enough to bring in watchers and nothing said to quell the fear of small investors about the potential of a reverse split. Just the way I see it.
Does not appear that the market saw it the same way. With no straight answers, the fear of the unknown will continue to pull SP down.
Damn drunken binges, always end up forgetting what day it is.
Today we should find out what the plan is to deal with the de-listing issue. It will either be a very green or a very red day. No news of consequence regarding how the company is going to deal with the NYSE and it will still be red. Fear of uncertainty is not our friend.
Place your bets ...
No, they measure SP. They are meaningless without comparing them to key event and volume, especially in small caps like this company.
Late last month Keryx Biopharmaceuticals went from under $4.00 to over $9.00 in two three days. Nothing in the charts would have predicted that. It was because of positive news on one of their drugs in development, Zerenex. Now, the stock did follow a normal momentum pattern of going over its final SP by about 30% before settling down into the $6.00 range. That a chart might have predicted. But that actual move, no chart is going to see that coming.
Likewise, no chart is going to predict the way the market will react to the conference call. That is based on the nature of the new released as well as the expectations of the shareholders.
Well said. That is the reason I am not a big fan of chartology. I like psychology - fear, both of losing money and of missing out on the next big thing; and the irrational belief that the stock you have is the next big thing even as it slowly dwindles into oblivion.
Herein lies the problem: There is a conference call next week. Now, management could announce an accelerated drilling schedule starting later this summer which is great news ... or ... it could be announcing a reverse split which is horrible news. So, do you hold on because you expect good news or do you sell with the intention of buying more shares after the conference call. Decisions, decisions...
True, it could be up to a 20% difference. But that does not seem to limit the number of executives who issue themselves these options versus them investing their own money in open market purchases. If anyone was really that concerned about it you would see these types of options disappear.
Just as a curiosity I went back and looked and I can't find a single time where Ray ever brought shares in the open market. It appears he is not worried about the tax ramifications.
Only three full trading days till the conference call. Lets see if the SP leading up to the call will reflect confidence that there is good news on the horizon or pessimism about the future.
At least it is on a Wednesday instead of a Friday. The earlier in the week - the better the news.
Now the new "last time we closed below .20" is today.
All-in-all it has been pretty stable. But I think more was expected out of the PR which means people may not wait around. If that was the good news I wonder what will be buried in the EOY report.
Why have they not mentioned the new valuations? Are they afraid that they are not what people are expecting? Have they over-hyped it, cause if they did I think I missed it.
Management can issue themselves stock options good for one or more years exercisable at the current value. No risk, all reward. Maybe the independent directors purchase meant something, maybe not. In my opinion, in companies of this size with relatively tight control, open market purchases are a PR tool.
The good news here is that, at least we are not suffering from group-think.
Management is stuck between a rock and a hard place. They know they have a listing issue that needs to be resolved. The SP has to get over $1.00 and stay there for thirty days. It has to do that before mid April (one year since it fell below $1.00). Management has any number of tools at its disposal to help or hurt their company's share price. The two primary are press releases and stock purchases. Stock purchases come in two forms, insider buying and company buy-backs. The third, less desirable way is a reverse split, which normally causes a significant drop in SP (See FREE for a recent example). I believe that at this point they are doing their best, within reason, to elevate the SP using any means OTHER than a reverse split. I would suspect that if the insider buying does not work, they will announce a limited open market buy-back.
That is just a guess, but this company has few options. It has released the 3D to some effect. It has had two insider purchases that went largely unnoticed. I believe they are running out of options. I suspect they will announce the accelerated drilling time-line and see what that does. After that, the buy-back is their only option unless they can convince the NYSE that they are solid.
Again, only speculation.
Today's trading looks like some people knew news was coming but it wasn't the news they wanted.
That said, it does seem to be moving forward instead of backwards.
24K shares at $.642. Serious investment or just another attempt to boost price?
Seems like management is doing its best to get the SP up with things like insider buying and releasing the 3D but it is not good enough. Maybe the conference call will do it (assuming they are going to announce the drilling schedule), but if it does not, could the exchange leave us alone considering the company does not under collateralized?
Seems like she is having a hard time holding 65. Not to be a naysayer, but I think the ghost or future R/S are still holding us back. It will have to get up to 75 or 80 before it will fade away.
I am thinking not (but hoping I am wrong). I had expected a two day rally on the news, but it seems to not be enough. No mention of the drilling. I guess that will wait for the conference call.
I figured that out after I posted. A little better, ... by a multiple of 100. What about the risk factor? What are your thoughts on how those in the know will look at this report?
If she makes it to .75 by Friday and there is not a huge sell-off at the end of the week, then she is within striking distance of $1.00 and the NYSE listing issue risk starts to abate.
Am I reading this right: The Sylli Fan prospect is a moderate risk exploration with a 100% yeild of 1.2 million barrels of oil?
Technical questions aside, I think it is the companies plan to push the pps back up over a dollar with a string of PRs, keeping it there long enough to keep the wolves at the NYSE at bay for another 13 months.