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Our brains are wired red team - blue team: fear and greed; either alone will get you into trouble, and natural selection has set it up so that each can effectively shut the other down. It works pretty well with real bulls and bears.
If he feels confident he's delusional; if he says he feels confident and he's not, he confirms that he's a sociopath; if he says he lacks confidence in the company, he shoots himself in the foot.
He's right to stay silent.
Anything that would do us good at this point would be shot to hell if he divulged it.
I'm not defending Varney, I'm defending common sense.
puffing isn't required; there are many other methods of ingestion.
Over the years following this stock, there were a variety of people who proposed a range of "technical analysis" predictions of future share price based on past trading patterns, from tea-cups to bouncing dead cats. Here finally we have a stock where only a lunatic could predict a recovery in share price, so it's like a physics experiment in a bubble chamber. I think most of the ripple is due to the slowness of over-the-counter trading, but still it's nice to watch.
On the nail-in-the-coffin front, the whole notion of building a company around cannabis extracts/analogs/derivatives seems foolish: the drug is on the way to being legalized. The deep knowledge-base accrued by generations of potheads, who have developed strains with a broad range of psychoactive and bioactive ingredients, as well as a good understanding of how different modes of ingestion affect the subject's exposure to these ingredients means that means that any pharma developing cannabis-based drugs will be in competition with dispensaries.
I've got a feeling the RBlatch and JerryDylan lost sums in the ball-park of what you lost. They don't even post here any more.
What a blood-bath.
up 50% on the year!! To the moon!
I was just trying to say that while corx's failure was painful for me, it was probably more painful for Coleman. For all of us, this is mainly about money. Money matters a good deal, particularly if you're broke, but it isn't everything.
I discovered corx when I was looking for promising new compounds that might help a relative in the early stages of AD. If anybody needs a benchmark against which to measure their corx miseries, that's a pretty good one.
Davey,
Thanks for the details about Coleman. I don't think it helps to demonize people because of a misfortune that at worst they abetted but did not cause. More than for any of us, corx's failure defines Coleman's life.
FWIW, $65K up in smoke.
All the best to everybody
>> I no longer have to wait patiently for the wipeout in FOLD
you have to wonder about their choice of ticker symbol...
Given that Greer (an employee of U of Alberta) owns the use patent for RD, is it conceivable that a Canadian governmental funding mechanism might be an option? Corx needs funds to have any kind of leverage in licensing agreements. For all we know corx is getting offers that are congruent with the company's current finances, but not with the value of the IP.
RD is really the only indication available to corx, so the option of selling the RD indication (as they did with biovail) doesn't make sense any more, because if there is little interest in RD, there is still less for the other compounds and indications that have been floated in the past.
I wouldn't be surprised if the people who pick up on ampakines are the narcos, who could peddle safer opioids, permitting more heroic drug abuse. Safe heroin would sell.
>>> I blame Neuro for... his inflexibility, and for his arrogance to support and maintain his position.
Isn't that what you're doing here? I've never seen you post anything along the lines of "I was an idiot for buying corx stock". That should be the secret password for all members of this illustrious club.
on the question of vegas vs corx, I'd say neither: give the money to a family in a homeless shelter. The odds of losing your investment are about the same, but at least the people who benefit can use the money.
I've been following this bb and this company for too long, but the fact that I've been reading every posting on this board since 2007 allows me to correct the record.
Throughout this period, there has never been a shortage of bashers. I was critical of the company when it took on the SA indication; Dew Dilligence spoke with the same oracular certainty as NI, and he stated the company was a dog, without any ambiguity whatsoever. Many others have screamed, jumped up and down about how feckless management was, how flawed the whole business model was, and how problematic ampakines were. For the last 2 years, NI has repeatedly posted that the sector had lost interest in AMPA modulators, and that nobody was interested in RD, or ADHD, let alone SA. Anybody with middle-school math skills could have figured out that corx was too undercapitalized to be viable, since around 2009.
If you're holding this stock, it's because you (like me) didn't have the courage and the judgement to dump it at a loss, like all the other posters who announced that they were biting the bullet and getting out. You're going to blame NI for that? Please.
Thanks for your amusing posts. It's good to be exposed to something other than fury and regret. Some of the people who used to post on this board believed in this company, and bet heavily. With what I had, I did too, and we all lost most or all of what we put in. I imagine that this has had consequences in their lives as disastrous as the consequences in mine, but we're all still alive.
Neuro was an advocate for this company, and it was based on what he knew; I was excited about the science, and totally ignorant about the rest, and I too was an advocate at least some of the time. I think people who understand the science can contribute to this kind of a BB, but in this case we got burned too. I apologize to anybody who may have bought into this company based on what I wrote. I had no ulterior motive, I was just misguided and ignorant about the regulatory environment and the sector. Aside from the PD trial, which I assume failed, just about every other trial with ampakines showed efficacy, and the RD indication should in (a sane world) be a money-maker. That's not how it worked out though.
I hope that the next years are better than the last few for everybody who got burned here.
I still think the NIH money is gone. If it were there, corx would be in relatively good shape. Even though the NIH funding is spread out over years, it nonetheless would allow the company to continue to operate as a virtual company.
Given that everyone is spooked about AMPA modulation, don't you think it might have been (might still be) a good idea to disseminate the nature of the "artifact" or signal found in the CX717 toxicology submission to the FDA? Varney argued that it was artifact; he was overruled by the FDA. If his argument had merit, wouldn't putting the histology out there help to overcome the reservations other companies have about ampakines?
As far as Varney's performance goes, the fact that somebody or other said he did a good job doesn't cut much ice with me. It is probable that corx was doomed because of the perceived risks associated with AMPAR modulation, but the decision to pursue the SA indication was stupid and ruinous. That was an avoidable mistake. If he had done the due dilligence on the feasibility of clinical trials for this indication, he would have been able to avoid the disaster that put corx under.
Aside from the fact that some of us lost our shirts here, the really depressing aspect of this story is how dysfunctional the system is. Some people are suffering excruciating pain, while others are dying from respiratory depression, and a compound that could solve both problems exists. I'm surprised that nobody is interested in ampakines in the context of palliative care, where pain cannot be managed at doses compatible with maintaining respiratory function.
My sense is that Carley left with the money. In academia, money moves with the PI. This is trumped if the institution can claim that they will be able to fulfill the aims of the grant, and corx can't credibly do that. Also, why would Carley walk away from the money? He builds his career with those funds.
zero trades. I wonder whether we're in for another just-after-the-close friday surprise; actually that would be pointless, but corx has always been attentive to that kind of detail.
today all of a sudden we're at 10x the average volume of trades. Hmm.
Probably it's a seller who has finally found a buyer and unloaded.
I can understand one side of that trade, but not the other.
I think you may well be right. We'll find out soon enough. It's interesting that now that we may finally be at the end-game, this board is silent.
My thoughts are with all who have bet big and lost on this company.
Thanks GFP, I've been hoping to get more information about what happened.
This study grows out of the ancient data that used to be on the cortex website of before/after pictures that supposedly showed substantia nigra recovery from MPTP lesions. In retrospect, the most charitable thing that can be concluded is that somebody screwed up in the earlier study. It seems to me that MPTP is a blunt instrument to test the beneficial effects of BDNF upregulation; if the high-impacts are well-tolerated, they might still be quite useful in slowing the rate of disease progression. Along with the many other promising applications of ampakines, this one is unlikely to get a second chance. A two- to three-fold increase in BDNF levels looks like a win to me.
>>> the Sleep Apnea trial did show some amazingly strong efficacy in the Central type of Sleep Apnea
N=4 if I remember right; this is uninterpretable. The sleep disruption was significant across the entire group.
>>> the only reason Varney didn't run an ADHD Phase 2 with CX-1739 instead of Sleep Apnea was that they hadn't yet run the longer term animal studies on CX-1739 that were required for an ADHD trial.
SA is a chronic condition too. The long term studies are going to have to be done one way or other.
The worst part is that ADHD may have been a more promising indication than sleep apnea, since the only robust effect that emerged from the sleep trial was that ampakines impeded sleep; I guess if you're not sleeping, you can't have sleep apnea, so maybe there's a way forward.
They still have reversal of opioid/barbituate/booze-induced respiratory depression as a compelling indication. The booze story is from a recent study by Greer:
RESPIRATORY DEPRESSION IN RATS INDUCED BY ALCOHOL AND BARBITURATE AND ALLEVIATION BY AMPAKINE CX717.
Ren J, Ding X, Greer JJ.
FWIW, I think that the marijuana derivatives have efficacy in RD by increasing the tonic activity of the carotid body (CB), but not its gain.
The CB is the principal peripheral chemosensor. Increasing its gain will cause a quick arousal if an apnea occurs, but higher gain is tricky because it easily leads to oscillations and instability.
By just increasing CB activity, the drug increases baseline level of activation in central respiratory circuits modulated by CB inputs.
All this to say that there is a known mechanism by which cannabinoids (which (confusingly in this context) act on receptors CB1 and CB2) might actually treat RD.
I think they've jumped the shark on this one. Their 2 shots at goal here are to bring to market 2 relatively harmless products that may or may not treat a ubiquitous condition, and that a. get you high or b. make you feel smarter. In combination or in isolation, I think these drugs will sell.
At this point in the game, I sort of admire their resourcefulness, but I can't take it seriously.
You're absolutely right! If they'd only shut down PhD programs, mass murder would disappear from the American landscape.
It's a shame that you limit your incisive commentaries about American culture and society to an obscure biotech sector bulletin board. These ideas deserve a broader audience. Have you thought about starting a blog? I think that way you'd find the recognition you deserve. You clearly have great facility with writing.
All the inferences are indeed a bit of a stretch, but there is one factor that makes them more plausible: corx management needs to find a way out of their impasse, and they are very nearly out of time and money. That's why I'm not so willing to dismiss this line of speculation.
I can't get heated up about it though. One way or other I've pretty much made my peace with my loss.
The best argument against this whole speculation is that there isn't much gained by it. They would go from being one tiny, undercapitalized company that can't generate partnering interest in its compounds, to another tiny, undercapitalized company that can't generate partnering interest in its compounds.
Unless there is something else going on, none of this makes much sense. If they used this ruse to take the IP private, whoever their backers are would be liable to lawsuits from defrauded corx investors. We can't hire lawyers, but Samyang can.
When this flared up last summer, I got a bad feeling about the whole thing.
Neurolixis has no existence other than as cortex under a different name and listing. The only reason for going through with this exercise is to eliminate corx's liabilities and obligations.
I sort of doubt that we will be offered stock in Neurolixis. I think corx will be bought, and we will be sent a check for share-price X # of shares.
ampakines aren't worthless; they work, and could save lives. Opiate or propofol-induced RD is a big deal, and bringing it to the clinic would immediately start saving lives. If a low-impact were incorporated into oxycontin, the safety profile of this drug and others like it would likely improve. Corx management did some stupid stuff, but the environment they are operating in (opaque and arbitrary FDA; short-term profit-oriented BP; no VC money;...) is a big part of the problem.
I've lost a big chunk of my life's savings on this, so I know how others here are feeling.
Interesting line:
Neuro, if you're still checking this bb, can you describe how a company liquidates?
In particular, do people who own shares have to actively sell their shares prior to liquidation, or do we get pennies at the time of liquidation?
Basically, can I continue to be passive, or do I finally have to do something to get out of this mess?
Samyang continues to divest itself:
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=8326257
FWIW a potential orphan indication:
They're stuck like the rest of us. If they wanted to get out, how would they do it? Drips and drabs is the only way to get out of corx.
I'm not sure that Samyang is doing anything devious here. If they wanted to wrest control of the company, they'd be better served by accumulating shares; at these prices it wouldn't take much for them to own enough shares to be able to strongly influence what the company does.
I think they are just trying to divest themselves of their holdings without cratering share price. Many others have done this, but didn't have to file public forms to do so.If they wanted to lower share price, they could basically send it to $0.02 without breaking a sweat. Selling in drips and drabs as they are doing looks more like an effort to minimize losses.
Samyang continues to unload:
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=8305736
if you look at the number of posts you and Haysaw have combined over the last months, rehashing and rehashing the same bs, you'll understand why nobody has any interest in this BB anymore.
Wouldn't MJFF report trial outcomes on their own?
I did get a bit carried away -- I discovered that the empty glass had a tiny false bottom.
My guess is that Samyang will keep them in operation because they understand the value of the IP, may be able to facilitate approval for clinical trials, and above all because the operating costs are minuscule.
If the MJF trials are negative/inconclusive, will we hear about it?
Is it possible that by going virtual, corx is strengthening its bargaining position? They're sitting on a pile of potentially very valuable IP. In the past, licencing negotiations were skewed by the mismatch between corx's burn rate, and its funds, creating a situation in which counterparties simply had to wait for better terms, since financing options were so unattractive.
Now corx's burn rate is minuscule, Samyang can keep them on IV drip indefinitely, and corx's only corporate function is to wait for a good deal. Under these conditions, counterparties have little to gain by waiting; at the first half-decent deal (i.e., one that satisfies Samyang), my guess is that corx will have no option but to sign on. Even if this closes off fire-sale pricing for corx's assets, there is still potentially a lot of value here for a partner.
Even if this is nuts, it makes me feel better. In the absence of information, movement, or action, I'll take wishful thinking.We'll see $0.10 yet!
My sense is that the company's valuation and infrastructure are so minuscule that the only option left is liquidation. Why would anyone enter into a licencing agreement with this company? Even if they did, what could corx do with whatever money they got? They no longer have a staff to put to work, or facilities in which to do anything.
I don't think there's a way back.