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Picked up some today, cautiously. You could very well be right about the drop. If so, I will add up to 2 more entry points and hold.
Picked up some GG today and may add a bit more of it soon.
Starting to add a some more shares. Bought low, held, bought more high, averaged down and now going to add again lol.
Held and looking for a run!
I had the same buy order in and didn't get any. Might should have "strategized" like Worlcruiser and tiered a couple orders to keep a better "feel" on the buy/sell pressure.
We'll have to wait until next week to see if I was lucky or unlucky lol.
Did you get any bought on the downswing?
I may have missed it. Was trying to get some at .025 Cancelled my order and will watch it today. Will grab them if I can.
Your buy may have been the entry point!
If it is driven down all day I may pick up some lotto shares at the end of the day. IF MM manipulation is going on, may get a good bounce into some green on Monday.
Best way to fight MM manipulation is to have a profitable company, transparency and great communication with investors.
Halliburton? Really? They provide oil field service but it is "frac" jobs and many other things that are much more involved than welding.
Possible. If so- watch for the right entry and ride it back up. If they are manipulating it, they may run it both directions.
Take the green if it comes easy!
I'm not as interested in "opinions" as much as mathematical facts and sound business principles. IE- product worth more than production costs is a great start.
The Miller Deal will likely provide some profit. Enough to justify a publicly traded company in the next 3 yrs? Doubtful due to the fact that that industry is currently highly competitive.
Lots of guys out of work in the gas fields and are hunting jobs.
Name me a large oil/gas construction service business that is publicly traded. I'm open minded.
*Lets not forget that a 12 million a yr gross is likely a good yr for a company like Miller this yr. Maybe even 20 million next yr. With all the overhead, insurances, labor (high priced labor) etc.. that may not equate to a good investment in HPGS (considering the vast number of shares).
Mark H does know how to make money. He built Hettinger welding into a large company going into the boom. Mark wisely cashed out as he likely knew it was not sustainable.
After Mark sold out, the boom slowed and Hettinger Welding closed up.
Hettinger Welding grew so fast that I know that they had to buy supplies from many suppliers due to cash flow out faster than in.
Stupidly undervalued when their product costs more to produce than the revenue it generates?
$39 million in assets? Seriously? HPGS owns an old field whose daily production has a very low output. *May be lucky the output is low due to the fact it costs more to produce the gas than it sells for.
Was in Casper WY this week. Spoke with a guy that told me of a small natural gas/oil producer (Not HPGS). The company we were discussing has NO WHERE to send its gas. Storage facilities are starting to turn away small companies to keep room for the large producers.
As far as the Miller deal- I think it stands a chance to generate a profit. What is their max gross this yr? $12 million?
One thing about it- I don't think you will have any trouble buying all the shares you want. Sells on the bid fill a lot slower than buys on the bid.
Agreed. I had an appointment with a business next to Miller Fabrication.
HPGS trucks still around, field is still producing a little gas and the Miller shop seems like it's picking up.
It'd be nice to see a High Plains Gas sign at the location in addition to the Miller Fab sign.
How many jobs created in the chemical industry compared to the jobs that will be lost in the natural gas production/transportation industries?
I'm all about "the other side of the coin" as long as it is straight forward info that does not mislead into something it is not.
Valley- if you continually provide such info, I will continue to present the reality of the industry.
*I 100% believe NG is going to be a huge factor in the energy business. However, unlike you, I am not going to offer info that slants companies not making a profit into being something they are not.
Here are a few facts on NG:
January 2012 NG production hit 2.577 trillion cubic feet. An increase of 11.6% compared to Jan 2011 and 16% higher than Jan 2009.
Demand is in the tank. NG is at a 10 yr low. When adjusted for inflation, it is at a 17 yr low
NEW YORK, March 28 (Reuters) - Owners of some U.S. natural gas storage sites began turning some customers away this week for fear that the system will overflow in autumn, the clearest sign yet that surging production may wreak havoc in the market later this year. continued at http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/28/usa-natgas-storage-idUSL2E8ESYVQ20120328
Did ya get the pm?
NG will be a hot play but most likely not in 2012. Look at the fundamentals such as production levels, storage levels and demand.
Also look into the fact gasoline is one of our largest exports. It is due to the fact that overall we have a surplus and demand in the U.S has softened.
Careful of the political propaganda surround the price of gasoline. Lots of behind the scenes activity. I'd suggest reading "The Oil Card". http://www.theoilcard.com/
Keep in mind that it's not a conspiracy when the variables are easily verified. IE- gasoline is one of our main exports due to softening of demand in the U.S. Production levels and storage is up.
*Yates Petroleum is fixing to go public with 20% of their company. Legit producer with a good history.
Buy orders at the bid fill quick. Sell order on the bid sits. Large block of shares someone is dumping?
No worries. I was just curious if you had come across that type of info. Lots of spooky stuff going around the Powder River Basin. Coal bed methane is looking rough this year. Some big cuts and changes coming in some of the big players in the area. Guys taking transfers, people getting let go etc.
When you do your DD, check out the wet or dry gas angle. Wet gas is still getting good $. It is what they make propane and other products from. It is currently a whole different deal than the dry gas (heating etc) that HPGS produces.
*some wet gas is produced in the powder river basin. Anadarko has a gas plant about 25 miles south of Gillette.
GL
Valley- have done any research on the quality or type of gas hpgs produces? Ie- wet gas, dry gas etc...
If you are watching oil and gas plays closely, have you read the book "Oil Card"?
Interesting take on things.
Oil Card link:
http://www.theoilcard.com/
Keep in mind that oil is one of our biggest EXPORTS due to large amounts of oil and lower demand.
Natural gas is at its lowest point since 2002. Production is still outpacing usage and storage is building ever higher.
2012 isn't a bright outlook for natural gas. Long term I agree it will be more of an energy of the future.
Have you wondered why gasoline at the pump is so high and natural gas is so low? If you have, are you aware oil/gasoline is one of our highest exports due to softening demand?
Here's a couple links I put up on another board that will help to understand what is going on:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=73660217
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=73485147
Off and on I put up a buy or sell order to get a "feel" for the activity. Put up a sell at bid and see how long it fills and a buy on the bid.
Usually both orders sit awhile. Yesterday and last Friday were a bit different. IMO- we could be building to a great flipping run.
Depending on a few variables- I just may have some decent blocks to sell on the bid. Get your $ ready!
Ooofta! So much for the volume and flipping opportunity today!
Keystone Pipeline. To all who are buying the political propaganda put out by the republicans- you are being scammed as much as Obama and the "left" scams the "liberal vote".
Both parties serve the federal reserve and corporate industries.
Domestically produced gas/oil is now one of our main EXPORTS!
http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/05/news/economy/gasoline_export/index.htm
*it started in late 2008 but a lot of groundwork for such things to happen was laid under Bush
The Keystone pipeline is primarily meant to get Canadian oil to the Gulf ports in the Southern US. It may have an influence on the price of oil only due to the fact Canadian oil will compete with the domestic export price.
Grains, meats, energy etc. are all going to go up further.
Repubs and Dems alike will not talk about the real issue. Our currency has been devalued to where other countries around the world can compete against us more. This process has been accelerated the last 12 years!
As our dollar weakens our country is taken down to the level of the rest of the world. The result is basic needs will continue to take a larger % of household income from the people. This will affect the lower and middle class the most.
Most conservatives and liberals are correct in trusting their gut when it comes to suspecting the elite waging class warfare on the middle and lower class The tragedy is they get to pointing the figure at the "other side" and fail to see the common culprit.
The Federal Reserve controls our currency and monetary system. They are a private bank who beholds to no one. They offer little to no transparency. As long as the people bury their heads the politicians will cater to the political propoganda.
All that being said- if the volume stays up a few more days and the price doesn't change much, this could be a good momo play. Like all penny plays, the risk will be up but we may be able to make some good amounts of green on this pig.
Let the huffer puffers blow the house in but don't get caught up in the kool aid!
ALL IN MY OPINION! Do your own DD
Stock promoters and potential buyers looking for a legit long penny play- Let's look at it for what it is.
1) this company owns an old field that was not profitable for Marathon.
2) price of gas is at a level that if a company is not producing oil and gas at a given well they are very likely losing $ on the well.
3) coal bed methane is of lesser quality than what the gas ofHenry Hub price is set at. Most likely it is 70 cents an mcf or less at the well head *what a company like HPGS would likely get.
*coffee shop talk aka bs'ing with local coal bed producers indicates a Henry Hub price of $3.50-4 is the bottom level for coal bed methane. Also was told a few of the large producers such as Williams has their price locked In at profitable levels
4) storage levels of natural gas are approximately 800 BCF higher than a year ago
5) current production levels are producing faster than demand. Aka- gas in storage is building at a time of year when storage levels are drawing down.
6) we are coming into a time of year when natural gas typically softens in deman in price.
In summary, all current indicators point towards a soft natural gas price in 2012. I do agree that natural gas is going to be an energy of the future. The likely hood of municipalities turning to natural gas for its vehicles (bus, garbage trucks etc) is good IMO. The liquification for export is also going to help. Many bright spots in the long term.
7) a manufacturing company with a potential $1,500,000 or less per month gross revenue. What rate of return would be realistic? 25% gross profit? $375,000 gross profit to pay all wages, subsidize natural gas loss (can't just shut a well in when prices are down), pay all benefit packages, all manufacturing equipment, daily fuel, per diem for skilled employees, costs incurred by being a public company etc and have enough profit left to drive the stock price up?!!! Seriously, with all the shares out there the net profit per share doesn't add up.
Ohhhh ya! Forget the pesky details! It's a penny play for crying out loud! LMAO
When huffers and puffers are called out with specifics they always resort to attacks designed to discredit. Puzzling but predictable.
What a bunch of "huffing and puffing"!
First it's a gas company, then it's a gas company with a welding field service, then its a welding manufacturing company and when people ask for pesky specifics it's a "penny play"?
Gas being less than 90 cents at the well head and an old field that is fading is not profitable.
Miller Fabrication with $10-15 million of gross revenue may make some green.
A building, equipment, administrative costs, employee costs, insurances etc... with only $15 million gross revenue that may be profitable equates to a legit viable penny stock? Seriously going to try and spin that?
*Didn't account for any High Plains Gas gross revenue due to it not being profitable at the current Henry Hub reporting price.
One primary reason this company is public. They couldn't attract enough private investor $. Legit oil and gas companies that have profit to be made are built off private investors. After years of profit it often does take going public to get to the next level.
Yates will be going public soon. Legit company that has actually made profit off of oil and gas.
HPGS momo plays likely to be coming in the near future. Take the green and don't let the kool aid cloud your judgement!! Kool aid is strong on the HPGS board
Don't ask about the details! It's a penny stock for crying out loud!!! *Really hope you see the sarcasm in this post.
With the cost of production vs price of product; selling gas will add to the debt.
The real looting of America is not being talked about in simple language. We are being scammed by Fox News, CNN, MSNBC, talk show host, politicians etc… It is not any one politician. It has been happening since the early part of the 1900’s.
Consider what Henry Ford said; “It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”
Lets take a look at a few comparative financial facts.
Costs in 1964:
Median income with wife in work force- $8170.00
http://www.census.gov/statab/hist/HS-25.pdf
Gas- 30 cents a gallon *Every 1000 gallons= 3.67% of the median income
Average home- $20,500 *250.92% of the median income
First Class Stamp- 5 cents
Dozen Eggs- 54 cents
1 gallon milk- 95 cents
http://www.1960sflashback.com/1964/economy.asp
*Cost of delivering a baby- $459.00 *5.62% of the median income
*Average cost of uncomplicated natural birth
Costs in 2011:
Median Income with wife in work force- $39,516
http://www.census.gov/statab/hist/HS-25.pdf
Gas- $3.51 *Every 1000 gallons= 8.88% of the median income
Average home- $215,000 *544.08% of the median income
Dozen eggs- $1.75
1 gallon milk- $3.69
*Cost of delivering a baby- $9000.00 *22.78% of the median income
*Average cost of uncomplicated natural birth
WOW costs have jumped!! Or have they? The political propaganda diverts our attention from the real theft of America. Government is our largest industry, 48% of the people are reported to get a government entitlement of some sort, our monetary system is run by a private bank that offers virtually no transparency or accountability (Federal Reserve) etc..
Lets look at the math. In 1964 a quarter was worth 25 cents. Today a quarter is worth 25 cents. That being said lets look at it a little closer.
Costs in 1964:
Median income with wife in work force 1964- $8170.00
Median income with wife in work force in 2011- $39516.00
Life is better right? Wrong!! The $8170 average income in U.S dollars today would be worth $122,550.00
How is that!!!??? Simple.
Our government turned over our Constitution, credit system and monetary system to the private controlled bank. AKA the Federal Reserve.
1964 was the last year that our money was backed by gold. A quarter in 1964 was worth 25 cents and was 90% silver.
Take the 1964 median income of $8170 x 4 quarters for each dollar= 32680 quarters. Those 1964 quarters are currently valued around $3.75 each today!!
32680 quarters from 1964 x $3.75 each = $122,550!! 32680 quarters minted in 1965-2012 are worth $8170!!
1964 Gas- 30 cents a gallon
2012 comparison in silver quarters= 1.2 quarters per gallon x $3.75 (silver value of 1964 quarter)= $4.50 a gallon
1964 Average home- $20,500
2012 comparison in silver quarters= 82,000 quarters x $3.75 (silver value of 1964 quarter)= $307,500
1964 First Class Stamp- 5 cents
2012 comparison in silver quarters= .20 quarter x $3.75 (silver value of 1964 quarter)= $0.75
1964 Dozen Eggs- 54 cents
2012 comparison in silver quarters= 2.16 quarters x $3.75 (silver value of 1964 quarter)= $8.10
1 gallon milk- 95 cents
2012 comparison in silver quarters= 3.80 quarters x $3.75 (silver value of 1964 quarters)= $14.25
http://www.1960sflashback.com/1964/economy.asp
*Cost of delivering a baby- $459.00
2012 comparison in silver quarters= 1836 quarters x $3.75 (silver value of 1964 quarters)= $6,885
*Average cost of uncomplicated natural birth
Costs in 2012:
Median Income with wife in work force- $39,516 If paid 4 quarters per dollar in 1964 quarters this= $592,740!!!
http://www.census.gov/statab/hist/HS-25.pdf
Gas- $3.51 If paid 4 quarters per dollar in 1964 quarters this = $52.65
Average home- $215,000 If paid 4 quarters per dollar in 1964 quarters this = $3,225,000.00!!!!!!
Dozen eggs- $1.75 If paid 4 quarters per dollar in 1964 quarters this = $26.25
1 gallon milk- $3.69 If paid 4 quarters per dollar in 1964 quarters this= $55.35
*Cost of delivering a baby- $9000.00 If paid 4 quarters per dollar in 1964 quarters this $135,000.00
*Average cost of uncomplicated natural birth
The real looting of America is not being talked about in simple language. We are being scammed by Fox News, CNN, MSNBC, talk show host, politicians etc… It is not any one politician. It has been happening since the early part of the 1900’s.
Consider what Henry Ford said; “It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”
Lets take a look at a few comparative financial facts.
Costs in 1964:
Median income with wife in work force- $8170.00
http://www.census.gov/statab/hist/HS-25.pdf
Gas- 30 cents a gallon *Every 1000 gallons= 3.67% of the median income
Average home- $20,500 *250.92% of the median income
First Class Stamp- 5 cents
Dozen Eggs- 54 cents
1 gallon milk- 95 cents
http://www.1960sflashback.com/1964/economy.asp
*Cost of delivering a baby- $459.00 *5.62% of the median income
*Average cost of uncomplicated natural birth
Costs in 2011:
Median Income with wife in work force- $39,516
http://www.census.gov/statab/hist/HS-25.pdf
Gas- $3.51 *Every 1000 gallons= 8.88% of the median income
Average home- $215,000 *544.08% of the median income
Dozen eggs- $1.75
1 gallon milk- $3.69
*Cost of delivering a baby- $9000.00 *22.78% of the median income
*Average cost of uncomplicated natural birth
WOW costs have jumped!! Or have they? The political propaganda diverts our attention from the real theft of America. Government is our largest industry, 48% of the people are reported to get a government entitlement of some sort, our monetary system is run by a private bank that offers virtually no transparency or accountability (Federal Reserve) etc..
Lets look at the math. In 1964 a quarter was worth 25 cents. Today a quarter is worth 25 cents. That being said lets look at it a little closer.
Costs in 1964:
Median income with wife in work force 1964- $8170.00
Median income with wife in work force in 2011- $39516.00
Life is better right? Wrong!! The $8170 average income in U.S dollars today would be worth $122,550.00
How is that!!!??? Simple.
Our government turned over our Constitution, credit system and monetary system to the private controlled bank. AKA the Federal Reserve.
1964 was the last year that our money was backed by gold. A quarter in 1964 was worth 25 cents and was 90% silver.
Take the 1964 median income of $8170 x 4 quarters for each dollar= 32680 quarters. Those 1964 quarters are currently valued around $3.75 each today!!
32680 quarters from 1964 x $3.75 each = $122,550!! 32680 quarters minted in 1965-2012 are worth $8170!!
1964 Gas- 30 cents a gallon
2012 comparison in silver quarters= 1.2 quarters per gallon x $3.75 (silver value of 1964 quarter)= $4.50 a gallon
1964 Average home- $20,500
2012 comparison in silver quarters= 82,000 quarters x $3.75 (silver value of 1964 quarter)= $307,500
1964 First Class Stamp- 5 cents
2012 comparison in silver quarters= .20 quarter x $3.75 (silver value of 1964 quarter)= $0.75
1964 Dozen Eggs- 54 cents
2012 comparison in silver quarters= 2.16 quarters x $3.75 (silver value of 1964 quarter)= $8.10
1 gallon milk- 95 cents
2012 comparison in silver quarters= 3.80 quarters x $3.75 (silver value of 1964 quarters)= $14.25
http://www.1960sflashback.com/1964/economy.asp
*Cost of delivering a baby- $459.00
2012 comparison in silver quarters= 1836 quarters x $3.75 (silver value of 1964 quarters)= $6,885
*Average cost of uncomplicated natural birth
Costs in 2012:
Median Income with wife in work force- $39,516 If paid 4 quarters per dollar in 1964 quarters this= $592,740!!!
http://www.census.gov/statab/hist/HS-25.pdf
Gas- $3.51 If paid 4 quarters per dollar in 1964 quarters this = $52.65
Average home- $215,000 If paid 4 quarters per dollar in 1964 quarters this = $3,225,000.00!!!!!!
Dozen eggs- $1.75 If paid 4 quarters per dollar in 1964 quarters this = $26.25
1 gallon milk- $3.69 If paid 4 quarters per dollar in 1964 quarters this= $55.35
*Cost of delivering a baby- $9000.00 If paid 4 quarters per dollar in 1964 quarters this $135,000.00
*Average cost of uncomplicated natural birth
I am very inexperienced when it comes to putting together the charts.
I thought a key component to a good chart was volume. Is this incorrect?
In summary you have no idea of why this is or isn't a sound financial play?! Warm and fuzzies because of potential?
You would seriously invest hard earned $ on a "potential" $20 million or less gross with the amount of shares out and call it an "investment"? Can we agree on it being a gamble that rivals the odds of a black jack in Vegas?
"Potential"- possible vs actual.
The volume and pps speaks volumes. Not even a naked short sell to blame
Edit- I am for a good investment but prefer to not have to stick my head in the sand.
If you took the loss to this point, I sure don't blame a person for holding until the earnings is out.
FYI- I don't care what someone drives as long as they aren't selling me bs to pay for it
When the earnings comes out, how about we do the math? *Is there enough info now to do the basic math below?
What is the projected gross for the Miller Fab? $20 million, $5 million or $100 million a year?
How many shares are there?
What is the gross revenue per share?
What do you project as the net profit for HPGS? How much per share does it equate to?
I've noticed that the board tends to tout natural gas as great venture (which I believe is accurate over the long term).
When specifics of the old field HPGS owns is brought up with the large amounts of gas in storage and the production rate of gas outpacing consumption- the board then touts the Miller Fab as the savior.
While I believe the Miller Fab portion could be a viable private company I don't get all hyped up in equating that as a viable publicly traded company.
Keep in mind that the "guvmint" considers small business as anything less than 500 employees. How many combined employees does High Plains and Miller Fab have? *I don't know.
A good investment has to have transparent details and the math has to add up. Anything other than that is about as sound as a nickel in a slot machine.
HPGS is and was founded as a gas field. They bought out an old field that Marathon was happy to sell. Not sure what they are getting at the well head but I know of a legit large producer that is getting 71 cents an mcf.
*better gas than coal bed methane
Do you feel $20 million gross or less warrants a publicly traded oilfield service company? Out of the $20 million or so gross, what do you expect the net profit to be? How much per share will that equate to?
*sure is a nice Mercedes parked in their lot today. No doubt someone is gonna make some $ -;)
Out of curiosity, do you know what High Plains is actually getting paid at the well head? AKA- what they actually gross per mcf.
Edited: I would suggest people to be very cautious about speculating on natural gas plays.
Your charts do not factor in the storage levels, production levels and current natural gas usage. Over the last few months storage levels have been increasing at a time when they should be drawing down.
Current storage is roughly 800 BCF higher than one year ago! *Last year was above average storage levels.
We are coming down to a time when heating/cooling will be in low demand. Manufacturing is in the crapper! All that combined equates to more gas being put into storage.
Had a meeting in Utah with a guy that is very high up in a natural gas company. He said it is very unlikely BUT plausible that storage facilities will hit capacity. If they do there will not be anywhere to send the gas to- even at 1 cent an MCF.
Companies that are producing oil with a gas byproduct are looking very viable. Companies that have gas with propane ingredients are also doing well.
Straight natural gas companies are puckered up!! Eventually it will be back but it may not be anytime soon.
Careful of the kool aid!! When a person is serving it up they occasionally forget what it is and take a sip themselves!!
GLTA
I've asked a couple times but will ask again. Is Miller Fabrication structured in a manner that it is an asset of HPGS or is it a separate entity?
The oil industry in particular is looking very good for 2012. Was down in Vernal UT with a Patterson guy. They had dug out a rig that had been "mothballed" for 2 years. Drilling in WY, UT, CO, ND and MT is looking very good. It's primarily for oil with gas as a byproduct.
When making natural gas plays keep in mind the increased tariff on the pipeline transportation. RICE NESHAP and RICE MAC requirements start kicking in 2013. That combined with "spot" emission checks on compressor engines is going to add significant cost to the transportation costs.
Working on getting a 3400 series rich burn Cat generator to hit 1/2 gram per brake hp levels of CO and 1/2 gram NOx. It costs $ to do that. *the generator is used in a gas field and is part of the production costs.
When gas comes out of the ground, drilling, pumps, gathering pipeline and gathering compressor packages cost $. Take treaters, compressor engines, generators etc. and the gas they burn combined with mainline transmission costs and it adds up in a hurry. Factor in various qualities of product and the price received by a company like HPGS can be far less than the Henry Hub reporting price.