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I don't question Keith's handling of the situation, necessarily.
What bothers me is the deliberate misrepresentation by those who want others to think this deal is still likely to happen when it is not.
I think that some try to excuse their overstatement of situation by the fact that KAA likely 'left the deal on the table' in one form or another. For all intents and purposes everyone else involved knows this means the deals are dead, IMO.
However, since the general public knows nothing beyond what is said in the PRs many try continue to overstate the significance of these deals as future possibilities. A deliberate pattern of deception, in my opinion. Whether it is being encouraged by KAA, I don't know, but not perpetrated by him directly.
Your kidding right? Maybe you should do a search on 'definitive review' and read some of the posts by the moderators of this board which clearly give that impression. Even to the point of contradicting people who posted that nothing in the PR said the deal was 'pending' in any way.
Here is just one of many examples:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?Message_id=31329666&txt2find=definitive
More likely, just like the last lease sale, the various leases will be sold off individually. In that case the money will go to the company coffers and the shareholders will see nothing until management decides to do some kind of dividend.
Given his feelings towards most shareholders, I would think it much more likely that the insiders get really big bonuses that year.
For me holding onto my HMGP shares has been the least smart thing I have ever done in my entire life. I regret it every single day. I've been able to weather the situation ok, but I know a number who haven't been so fortunate.
Financially the drop from .02 to .01 would be the same magnitude loss as we had from .40 down to .20 for people buying shares now. For the rest of those who have lost 90+% it seems the consensus is that it isn't really worth selling and I agree. The volatility at these prices and admittedly low market cap don't make it worth messing with in my opinion.
However, I don't think it is going to change much any time soon. I stick with my opinion that HMGP will continue to go nowhere into 2009. I got crucified with nasty PMs from many sources a few months ago when I said the Collins would take many many months before it started to affect the bottom line or share price, while others said a deal for marketing the gas was imminent. I'm still waiting.
No, I think the issue is some of us disagree with those who seem to imply that holding onto or buying HMGP shares while it continues to lose value is smart idea.
It wasn't a good idea 12 months ago, 6 months ago, 3 months ago, but some how it is always different 'right now', because of the 'fundamentals'.
This is viewpoint I have trouble understanding, not Duelittle's. The idea that only Hemi's positive aspects should be discussed.
Given the reality of the past 18 months of share price decline, I find that viewpoint on ethically shaky ground.
If you're comfortable hiding behind 'should be's and talk of 'fundamentals' while siding with those who have encouraged many to hold through 90% losses, I guess that's your business.
No one can predict the future, but looking at the track record so far around here, I know I'm a lot more comfortable having openly acknowledged the risks, downside and reality of the current share price.
There are many unknowns with any stock and nothing is a given.
Weren't you using the same logic a few months ago so say it could never go below $.02?
Certainly his mentioned price is a little extreme, but Friday's volume speaks volumes. Lots of things can change over the period of a few years and there are a lot of assumptions being made about the valuation of Hemi that could change for the better or worse.
Hey!
Certainly wasn't me, I got nailed by the greed. I've regretted it every day for over a year since I woke up.
Good to see you. It will be interesting to watch this time around. I know I am going to play it different than I did last time.
True. They almost called the game due to rain once, but it isn't over yet. I'd say this is more like the seventh-inning stretch.
Ok, that's enough of that analogy from me. I'm not much of a baseball fan.
Since you ask, so far I've been on the losing team as far as I can tell. At least that's what all the red in my account has been indicating. I've lost my shirt, so I must have been 'skins'.
And unless you're holding some differenter kinda them HMGP shares than I have, we're all on the same team at this point.
I didn't. I asked Kelsey who said ...the Hemi PR stated we will know by 10/15, when in reality the PR said nothing about the company communicating to the shareholders anything further about the deal at all.
Oct 15th is becoming one more in a very long series of "Coming Soon" or "Don't Blink" expectations that keep folks enthralled for a few weeks while nothing changes substantially, IMO.
Exactly, thank you. The PR says nothing about us knowing anything by October 15th.
The 15th is going to come and go, just like most other dates people have hung expectations on, with no new information or change in the status quo, IMO.
Can you clarify exactly what the PR says we will know by 10/15? Or perhaps it is the definition of 'we' that needs clarifying.
I was only questioning the idea that there is no motive. I think it is as simple as undervalued = motive in direct proportion to each other. If they are not motivated to do so it would make me question that they are as undervalued as some imply.
Now as to whether or not current resources are available to pursue such a course, that is a different matter, I admit. Certainly completing in-progress projects that so far have added little to current revenues and cashflow may easily take priority in the short term.
Shrinking the O/S when the stock is extremely undervalued doesn't imply they can't use shares later to grow the assets. It only points out the absurdity of growing the assets using the same undervalued shares at a time when you should be buying them back at pennies on the dollar if you could.
A buyback is something that technically could go on... but it doesn't make any logical sense and there currently isn't any motive to do so that holds any water.
From Investopedia - Share Repurchase:
A program by which a company buys back its own shares from the marketplace, reducing the number of outstanding shares. This is usually an indication that the company's management thinks the shares are undervalued.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sharerepurchase.asp
Unfortunately, you seem to be right based on recent average volume. Neither Hemi's management, nor anyone else sees any reason to invest in this company lately.
Sure that wouldn't cause the shorter to quit directly, but even AUTO would have to sit up and take notice if the buying at the ask increased dramatically. If they were shorting 1-2M shares a day for said shorter I don't think it would continue indefinitely.
However, I don't think you'll ever get that kind of volume again when people have no clear idea what they are buying (assets) and no clear idea how much of it they are getting per share (O/S). That is why the gagged TA hurts us.
People buying HMGP shares right now are expected to not care what kind of pie they are buying nor how big of a piece of it they are going to get. Is there any wonder why there is absolutely no volume at these 'discount' prices?
If you call and ask them, they will say they have them already, at least that's what they told me when I asked. I don't really believe them, though.
However, as BigMur was saying it shouldn't really matter as they have to honor your shares one way or another.
It is probably because it is not possible to have electronic FTDs in a stock that doesn't trade through the DTC, but rather only in certs (**supposedly**).
Of course, we know it trades on the inter-broker network electronically, but it isn't supposed to be trading without physical cert delivery.
Hey Tex,
I wasn't very clear was I. I knew it wasn't you. I was referring to your friend and wondering if he had been talking to the CEO, if not that's great.
And I fully agree you, it isn't good DD.
It's sounds to me like this person had been talking to Keith.
He often communicates the idea that there are a minority of detractors amongst the shareholders that are hurting the stock, or has to me at least in the past.
Personally, I think the issue is more that potential new shareholders in HMGP have no clear idea what they are buying into other than an 18 month downtrend.
Let's hope not, eh? It does provide a simple solution for those who don't like the way things are being done, at least. Drop a couple million at $.03 and buy a controlling vote.
In fact, if the folks claiming NSS are correct we could have 2 or 3 people with majority shares in the company.
edit: Dang it, REAZO that was my idea. You just type faster.
With the increases in the O/S would he need to give himself more shares to make sure company insiders maintain control through having a majority share position?
There was a lot of acquisition going on 2 years ago from this past summer, so I suppose it is a distinct possibility. I wouldn't suspect it was any landowners though, IMO.
However, there were other parties involved back then that may have had shares, but I don't know of any specifically that would be coming off restriction right now.
I think 'stifled' is a pretty strong word when we are barely getting $5K-$10 in dollar volume on average each day. It's hard to suffocate something that pretty much dead already.
On on the other hand, I suppose you could look at it as they are having a really easy time of it. This is why I totally disagree with zguy that $.02 is out of reach.
I have complete confidence in Craig's ability and opportunity to pickup beneficial leases in SEK. I even understand the strategy being used in Tarrant Co, although with the sheer amount of area the 'big boys' there have been leasing I would think it possible that years could go by for them to get around to really caring.
However, with the rest of it, I don't think it really matters how good of a 'pick' Keith got, not without knowing the scale. Having something appreciate 10, 20 or 100 times or more what you put into it would be great, but if you only put in $1000 to begin with, so what. Apparently the mystery of not knowing the size or location of these leases just isn't exciting the market.
What percentage of Woodson county do you think the so called 'cherry creek trend' entails? 20%? 10%? 5%? How much of Woodson county is actually mature fields or still unknown or completely worthless for that matter.
Wouldn't it make a big difference in Woodson county to know exactly how big and where a lease was in trying to decide if it was worth anything? I'm going to go out on a limb here and say yes. It's been said here before that Hemi has such a good relationship with many of the locals that they've been able to hand pick leases that they want. I think you could assume from that, that there is plenty in the county they don't want.
Now, I'm sure different counties in different states are all going to be different, but the comparison has to be somewhat valid to all the other places you mention that Hemi owns leases. Even if the answer is YES to all your questions, simply being in the same county is pretty thin circumstantial evidence to be basing the worth of these leases on.
Certainly there is a good chance that Keith actually picked up some valuable leases. But apparently no one really cares, even at these highly discounted prices. I wonder why that is?
Does it really matter whether or not it is NSS when there is only interest in $5K worth of shares every day? There just isn't enough interest from the market in the information being PRed.
Except that I actually paid for MY shares.
How can you say such things? Since when has the share price been connected even remotely to reality? People were saying the same kind of things through the twenties and teens as well.
Without significant changes, homie could be right on target. Especially since the O/S has increased significantly since then, the oil production has decreased and the publicly documented assets aren't much different.
I find it sad, but realistic that your expectations have gone from 10 to 5 to 'a few'. It will be the end of September in a few weeks and it may change to 'a couple' and later to 'another' at this rate.
What? Have you not watched Battlestar Galactica (the new one)???
One day she's the mayor of Wasilla and suddenly the Cylons attack and the next thing you know she's the president of the 12 colonies. We're screwed.
I bet that no matter who wins the US is pretty much screwed.
Yes as zguy did point out, they did directly say they expected it to produce at a 'much higher rate'.
I'm willing to wait it out and see if they get their 'more than 5 bbls of oil per day' up into the 30-40+ range when they are able deal with the gas. But as always, it is more sit around and wait. At least they openly apologized for the delay. :)
I hope you're right about new opportunities for the gas, that would certainly help!
Quite frankly, and in my opinion, I think we could ultimately have exactly what Hemi was expecting out of this well. An above average (for the area), as high as 10 BOPD oil well with a significant amount of currently unmarketable natural gas to add to their reserves.
It wasn't Hemi that set expectations higher than that.
Assuming the 22BOE/day numbers are not-overstated, they could go drill 10 more similar wells in the trend with similar results and by ultimately getting a market for the gas easily have a $1/share company.
What a whole $5K worth so far?
The market's complete lack of interest is making it really easy for the NSSers to hold this baby down.
22 BOE (Barrel of Oil Equivilent) includes the gas and natural gas liquids they are getting from this well.
BOE: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/barrelofoilequivalent.asp
BOPD: http://www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/Display.cfm?Term=BOPD
I read it as we have an at best 30 BOPD (oil/day) well that is choked down to 1/6th its rate to 5 BOPD. I also believe it means they are venting 17 BOE of gas every day to get the oil?
Hopefully, the numbers are:
1. not choked down in order to not 'damage the formation' which in my book would mean it is really just a 5 BOPD well.
2. along with 1, choked down only because of the gas mix which is causing problems.
3. not exaggerated
I also took it to mean we are going to be sitting at these prices for a long time while we wait for a 'market for this gas', IMO. Currently negotiating or not I think we have a ways to go before any kind of production starts to effect the bottom line.
We know there is no good market for the gas without taking a 70% hit from market value. I don't see how much 'negotiating' is going to change this.
You made my day. That was funny.