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I hear what your saying. However, your scenario smacks too much of manipulation which is not good for the market as who would invest in something that is "rigged"? Also, who in their right mind would believe that after all that we have been through, all is well (based on the sham stress tests which are done on a regular basis anyway when banks are audited by the FDIC) and the market should go straight up like it has? Some bank stocks are almost back to their pre valuation prices (and thats not factoring in the major dilution). In other words, what the hell can you believe?
let's see if 2009 mimics 2008. That should lead the market back down starting about now.
that move on all of the averages in the last hour of trading killed everyones TA. Could it just be the end of the month or is there some other sinister crap happening? Before that happened it looked like all the averages were starting to roll over. I find it hard to believe that a GM BK could undo all of that.
At this point McClellan doesn't seem to know his ass from a hole in the ground. The only constant is "ugly from Sept to NOV".
We are on our own with other sources.
S&P certainly looks like an inverse head and shoulders setup where the left shoulder is the Nov 08 low, the head is the March low and the right shoulder is being formed right now. Should be around 740 to 760 area. I expect this to conclude around the end of June, which coincides with McClellan's call for a significant low to happen around/by end of June.
The other indices are pretty much looking the same. JMHO
S2, would you add AMGN to your list above. TIA
so, did todays action qualify?
McClellan's numbers;
Markets;
initial low due May 18-22
important low late June, then rally into September
Gold bottom May 8
T-Bond rally from here into mid-June
875 resistance has held once again. End of month means that May is here and time to go away (and take your money with you).
I am starting to believe in the conspiracy theory that's saying that the government has leaned on the MM's when it comes to the bank stocks and had them inflated to artificially high prices. Now, when Timmy comes out and says that a few banks need to raise capital, the banks won't have to beg for more TARP money (is none left), just sell more stock at these high prices. That way it minimizes dilution and everybody is happy. Then the market can fall back to reality.
Hell, a pandemic can't make this market fall back......jeez
McClellan is saying that;
For stocks - Choppy until May 18-22, which will be the time to enter stocks for a "whopping summer rally"
(September and October are going to be "ugly")
For the dollar - May 6-8 top and a bottom for gold and T-Bonds.
Resistance at around 875 still holding and looking like a double top. McClellan called for a top to happen around 4/27 (Monday). Then I think that she tanks. Hell, even Cramer is telling people to take some profits so it must be time for a dump. JMHO
That's pretty much it according to what the "experts" (including Moe) are saying/implying. McClellan has been calling for a "top" to occur around 4/27 but he's also been known to be off. Monday will (hopefully) give us a clue. The markets are at that point where the SPX (and possibly the markets in general) will either crater or breakout. JMHO
Any opinions on this chart?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=21&i=p99086017164&a=126622510&r=692
Personally I don't see the SPX going much above 875 right now.
Nice charts S2. I've heard the same thing about reverting to the mean when it comes to commodities. I see no reason why it wouldn't be true for stocks also. JMHO
Judging by the futures right at this moment, I think that Kevin Haggarty is correct. Others are saying the same thing....
valuemunger, I don't have a premium account here so I can't respond privately.
Here is where you can hear Moe (It's always a day late).
You will have to register, but they do not send you any spam;
http://www.marketwrapwithmoe.com/listen-to-the-show/index.php
Good luck
Just wanted to say that if your talk with Moe was on the air, I think that I heard you. If so, it's nice to put a voice behind the ID.
The 740's call is a worst case call. More likely the 770 to 780 is the more realistic area. Here's what I'm looking at;
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1926808&cmd=show[s164070373]&disp=O
Let's see what happens Monday
S2 et al, it looks like the S&P 500 might actually go back to 740's sometime in the next week. The short term charts are starting to break down. We'll see.
Moe seems to have changed his tune
S2 (or anybody who listens to Moe Ansari). The last few days of his archived broadcasts (from 3/17 to 3/19) have him being optimistic about the markets. In other words, he feels that 666 on S&P 500 is now the low (for now). Did you listen to his show today live? If so, has he changed his mind considering the drop in the S&P today? He expected a possible pullback to about 750 before resuming the uptrend.
In other words.....any change in attitude? TIA
It appears that the S&P and DOW closed right up against MAJOR resistance. Tomorrow will tell if Moe is right (he is not the only one predicting that this rally will be a failed rally).
"Moe says this month we hit the bottom of this A wave. But not yet!"
S2, does he say WHEN this march to the bottom should begin? In other words, is there any continued upside first?
TIA
Good info. I kinda' figured something like that could and may happen. Keeping some powder dry just in case. Thanks.
MRVLReader....are you agreeing with that?
hope you're right. Do you agree MRVLReader? Tia
It's a crock. The trend will revert back to it's mean just as it did during the tech bubble in the 90's. JMHO
OK, I think I see it now. Thanks (assuming that yesterdays low starts the reversal)
I am failing to see where the a, b, or c count is on your chart. Could you explain or update? TIA
Is that not a bull flag?
MRVLReader, you still around? Would love your take on the markets right about now also
I respect S2 for his DD. Ain't heard shit from you other than to keep pointing out his "bad calls". He may not always be right on schedule, but eventually he hits it. What have you contributed?
I have heard that next support is around 8550 area. Let's see what happens
MRVLReader, what's your take on what the S&P (as charted by S2 above) look like now (asssuming that you agree with it)? In other words, do you agree with S2's opinion or are you short term bullish and long term bearish or what? I've been "playing" with both SDS and SSO and have been following various others charters and believe me, they are all over the place "depending"... TIA
JMHO, It looks to me like wait and see time.
Thanks S2 for this site. Wish that others knew about it.
Anyone else here feel free to chime in.
I am basically hearing your same calls for the rest of the week so I'll keep my fingers crossed.
post over on S2's other boards like you used to.
My apologies. You herd it right.
Don't worry about housing. In the early 90's the gov set up the RTC to dispose of failed S&L assets. Pundits said it would take 30 years. It took 2.5 years. There is a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to pounce, just looking for a sign of a bottom.
Amazing how much of a heard mentality goes on here. So, who's next with their "the sky is falling" posting?
What you are seeing is nothing more than the usual 50% retrace. Learn to use it.
Many thanks