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Looking to scale into a position here leading into ASCO abstract release on the 25th.
Looks like there is good potential for some upward movement!
Murocman
Yeah I was kind of hoping it would wait until we could cash out of GMDA.
Have to keep it on watch and look for pull backs to start scaling in.
Murocman
Something seems to be afoot?
Murocman
Thanks Midas.
Will do.
At first glance, BLRX has almost a billion share OS as well, so only marginally better from a share structure standpoint.
Will do some more DD, though. Looking for a good candidate in the next few months after GMDA gets taken out for hopefully $7-8 per share !
Murocman
Thanks. I wonder if they will reverse split at some point? Hard to move the share price and market cap up very much with so much liquidity.
Murocman
Was just looking at the share data here. ETrade list a market cap of $8.09 million, but there are 1.22 Billion shares outstanding!
Is that correct?
Murocman
Freudian slip?
Murocman
Another very solid day! I’m impressed by the resilience of the stock price.
I too believe this is going to “go” at some point soon. The product is solid. They have enough cash now for the immediate term and can negotiate with partners or suitors from a much better position than a week ago.
Murocman
I am as well. I was out at $1.57 on approval, and went back in today at $1.33 and $1.45.
I think this move by the company is good as long as they can effectively execute the launch and find another means of non-dilutive funding
Murocman
Yeah, just looked into it a bit more and it looks to me like they’re raising enough to start launching and buy time to find a partner or a suitor.
If neither of those happen in the next qtr they’ll probably be back to the well again for a bigger chunk of shares.
Murocman
Must not have had a partnership offer or suitor they liked.
No point in wasting time if they didn’t.
Might churn or even dip for a few days but will likely trend higher given they can essentially launch right away, albeit on a small scale.
If the insurance piece of this is adopted quickly, which I think it will be, it won’t be long and this cash crunch will be a distant memory.
Murocman
Yes, I understand. I don’t think the FDA pays very much attention to management though.
I agree they’re a mess, and raise concerns about how the company successfully executed if they do get approval.
As far as asking for more details, that should have been handled during the PDUFA extension period.
I don’t dispute there’s risk here. All small biotech stocks are risky. I do think the compelling efficacy and safety win the day and approval.
If that happens, there’s a much higher likelihood of a partnership or buyout as they will have a valuable asset.
Murocman
What makes you think they won’t get approval?
Their data is obviously good and compelling.
I do agree on the business front, they’re a dumpster fire, but the FDA is looking at efficacy, benefit versus risk, and in those categories they score very high IMO.
I agree that this is a short term trade for now pending some resolution of their cash situation and competent management, but I do think they get approval.
Murocman
Well that’s not a very rosy earnings report:
They need cash, and/or a partner to commercialize their drug closest to approval which is hopefully only a month away.
They are basically throwing everything into this approval.
If they don’t get it, they’re in deep trouble.
At best they get a partnership and cash infusion, and at worst a large cash raise.
At this point, I would think a partnership is unlikely before their PDUFA.
A cash could happen but more likely right after the PDUFA and into any price pop IMO.
I’m already we’ll under water on this. Might eat my losses and see how this plays out from the side lines to see if they can pull this out of a nosedive.
Murocman
Q4 and annual earnings should be due within a week or so, correct?
Murocman
I agree it would certainly be nice, but if there’s nothing material that happened then the company isn’t obligated.
Their silence and directors departing doesn’t help, and the roller coaster will likely continue as you say.
Murocman
Are they required to put out a press release after the late cycle meeting if nothing new is requested or required?
TIA,
Murocman
Thank you very much! Had not heard of this before.
Murocman
Hi Dew,
What is a PCSK9? I have CAD, and have been on Zocor since 2007 post getting two stents. I am not having any issues, but am concerned that statins may become a problem as I approach my 60’s.
Murocman
Is that good or bad, beyond the fact they have to pay $ to get out this deal?
Murocman
The Dow was up 216 pts according to ETrade.
Murocman
Getting some buying on volume here. Might be the start of a reversal run up towards (hopefully) approval.
Murocman
Hopefully the latter, but my guess is the former. This company moves at a glacial pace. While they talk about a sense of urgency, their actions do not support it.
GLTU,
Murocman
The fact he is not or Warren Buffet has not, and it’s been years and years and nary a shovel of dirt has been dug beyond core samples should give one pause before betting the farm on this one.
I guess the market decided it won’t get excited until at least the FDA accepts the newly filed BLA.
Even then, the price advance will probably be muted until such time approval is granted.
Bottom line, still high risk, high reward based mostly on the uncertainty of the FDA.
Murocman
Yes, I thought so as well.
I guess we just need to look at it as a chance to accumulate more cheap shares!
Murocman
Yeah I read it and it seems like sometimes BLA approval grants the ability to market and other times there is still a PDUFA approval needed. That’s what I was confused about in Gamida’s case.
At any rate, this morning’s PR answered that question.
Good news and I would hope this candidate would be about as close as a sure thing as there is for approval!
Will definitely be accumulating more on any dips.
Murocman
I always get BLA’s and NDA’s mixed up.
If the BLA is approved, the therapeutic is approved, subject to any restrictions, limitations or required follow ups with the FDA, correct?
Murocman
Surprised no posts here, especially with a catalyst imminent!
GLTA,
Murocman
And not a lot of it left, so I’d clarify by saying very interesting June!
Murocman
It’s where it is because management has failed to finish the job and get this project going.
Until that happens this stock will languish.
Murocman
Am wondering if we need to be concerned about a possible capital raise before data in May?
That said, if the data is not good, there won’t be much left to need capital for and Athersys is not in control of the timeline so timing could be tricky
Murocman
Responses were not durable. Have to see if they can get to that with higher doses, but will watch from the sidelines.
There will also be dilution ahead.
GLTA,
Murocman
That’s an opinion stated in the article by the author. There has been nothing from the company that says data will be out in April. The only thing they have said is Q2
Murocman
Only thing I can think of is:
1. They want something they can have full control over, and a topical formulation might have broader appeal and maybe be available OTC?
It does seem very odd and quite presumptuous unless they know the results of the phase III, in which case they are obligated to report them.
It sure has the appearance of the “cart being in front of the horse”
Murocman
Based on the conference PR, it is not at all clear to me that phase III results will be released. But hopefully we get enough of a “broadcast tease” with some specifics to generate some excitement.
GLTA,
Murocman
So my synopsis of all that has been posted is that Genocea and their tech could be a really big deal and we’ll get a leak on the 11th as to how compelling it is.
I also get the sense that in order to be a huge catalyst, the data needs to be overwhelmingly positive since it’s still very early in the development cycle.
Is that a fair assessment?
Murocman
Yep! They need a partner with a chunk of upfront cash or they’re going to need to do a capital raise very soon.
Murocman
And therein lies the rub. The fact that it has been 8+ years and they can’t attract somebody to put up $25 million is a problem.
Compelling investments attract capital.
Others go 8+ years and are still talking about how compelling an investment they are.
Murocman
Sorry for the poor grammar. That’s what I get for typing on my phone.
Should have been:
“sell.”
“Somebody always knows”
“Continues if no news”
Murocman