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Are you arguing that they are coming out with products now at a faster rate than they have in the past? I really don't see that - as it seems they are always trying to refresh their product offerings.
If you are saying they are coming out with product faster now than in previous quarters, then yes - that would impact my calculations.
If you would concede that their product developments are not really that much faster than in any other quarter, then those expenses would be similar to every other past quarter.
I am not sure about this variable, but I have not noticed anything out of the ordinary this quarter.
Let's talk facts...
You have the same information that I have - let's leave opinions out of this.
I took a relatively simple walk through the last few income statements, and placed in the companies own projections for the current quarter. This is a logical method of determining what the quarter might bring.
For you to just say "they are able to spend a lot of money"... I agree, but those expenditures are on the income statement - as either COGS, SG&A or ultimately interest expense (if they are spending borrowed money).
Maybe I am the ignorant one, but I need things explained with facts - use the last few quarterly statements to make your prediction of a huge loss this quarter as you predict. I cannot see how they can have an operating loss of more than $2,000,000 - no matter what numbers I plug into the equation.
I am very happy with this...
You need to all read between the lines... the 8k came out, which I initially thought (and went through in detail) was good news. I now feel that the MSLP BOD also see this as great news, and they obviously expected a positive market reaction to the 8k release.
If you look back, they rarely issue a PR along with a filing, because there should really be no need to - the investment community typically gets to the 8k by themselves. In this instance though, they issued a PR... why would that be?
It is obviously because this 8k filing is very good news, and the market should react positively to it. They are saying this is major, because they are finally starting to get their fiscal house in order - beginning with their balance sheet.
I will buy more today - based on the PR... and for the first time in a long time I expect more positive things from this stock in the short term.
Big money yes, but...
it's going out instead of in! They need to slow down on the spending a little bit - the brand is pretty well built in this arena. If they really want to grow, then they need to expand brand awareness beyond fighting... They have tried football & baseball with little success.
This is why they can't show a profit - every penny coming in is spent (plus a few more). They just spent all of that money at Olympia in Oct... Now another big outlay in Nov. At some point they are going to have to slow down this type of spending and trust their brand and products.
I completely disagree...
At $0.03 the market cap is only $75 million - or 1x Annusl Revenue. That is extremely reasonable if they can turn things around and post a profit and stop diluting shares. I feel share dilution will slow moving forward based on their most recent usage of shares to clean up liabilities on the balance sheet.
I think $0.04 or $0.05 is not asking for much - considering their revenue.
I disagree slightly...
Can you address the reduction in stockholders' deficit? This is a balance sheet positive event, where the derivative liabilities are reduced. If you look at the last quarterly release - this would be a huge positive for the balance sheet. They issued 500,000,000 shares to do this cleanup of the balance sheet.
No matter how you slice it - they did in fact issue shares (don't really care to who or why) - and they are reducing derivatives liabilities and reducing the stockholders' deficit.
You are only talking about one side of the equation - the shares... and are ignoring the positive side of reducing liabilities and increasing stockholder's equity (even though it will still be in a deficit).
If you read the 8k as it is...
without reading between the lines (which is hard) - then it says they issued 500,000,000 additional shares of common stock... and reduce the stockholders' deficit by $6,086,231... mainly by removing their derivatives liabilities - from approximately $7,909,000 to approximately $25,000.
What that says (in its most elementary and trusting form)... is that they gave away 500,000,000 shares for wiping out $6,086,231 of debt.
If you value those shares accordingly - they come to $0.012 per share.
I am not worried about who gets the shares, or about what the debt was, or when warrants expired, etc... all I care about is movements on the balance sheet. They reduced TOTAL LIABILITIES by $6,086,231 by issuing another 500,000,000 shares.
This is my very uneducated way of reading the 8k... I am sure someone else knows much more about this than me.
The only other point I make is that we don't know of any other balance sheet moves at this point - we can only base our arguments on what they have decided to share with us at this point - which is the 8k.
You are missing one point...
These changes are as of Sept 30th, which is the end of Q3. This means that they will not have a large impact on Q3 earnings - but they will most certainly have a HUGE impact on the balance sheet and on Q4 projections (if they decide to give any). Going forward, the derivatives expenses should be reduced by between 1 to 2 million dollars (based on prior quarters).
I am with JLTG on most of his points (not all of them)... MSLP is a relatively new and incredibly fast growing company... and everyone (other than the old BOD) knows what this means - A CASH EATING ENTITY. The easiest way for them to raise cash at this point is to issue more shares, which helps the company continue operations but kills current shareholders equity position.
Now, to counter a statement by JLTG - These most recent shares seem to be have been given a value of somewhere between $0.012 and $0.015 - based on my earlier calculations. If this is the case, then they are no longer having to significantly discount shares to get cash for them (or in this case, debt retirement).
Now, we can look at this in 1 of two ways - and conveniently one is very good for us, and one is very bad for us.
The lenders have most likely seen the books and numbers going forward, as that is what happens when someone goes for more funding. The lenders took shares in exchange for debt, and its seems they took these shares at a premium. There are only 2 reasons I would do this...
1) They know things are still going south, and they would prefer to get half of their money back then none of it. If this is the case, we would expect to see heavy selling as these 500 million shares are liquidated for whatever cash the lenders can recover.
2) They know things are turning around, and they feel the shares will be worth much more then $0.015 at some point in the future.
At this point, with us being in the dark - it is time to place your bets. I am leaning more towards option 2, and feel it will somewhat be validated if there is not a large volume selloff soon.
In theory yes...
That would reduce the number of O/S for those warrants and derivative liabilities, but today's 8k says these were in effect as of Oct 12th. It was the Oct 12th filing that stated the O/S count at 2,321,005,466.
I think it is best that we assume we will be at 2,500,000,000 O/S soon - and that they will raise the A/S to 3,500,000,000 very soon.
It is dangerous for a company to operate with their O/S so close to their A/S... I hope they state some comment about keeping O/S at 2,500,000,000 for a period of time after they raise the A/S; otherwise it will cause a run to the exits.
My $0.0069 worth...
Once again, my opinion is worth about one share of MSLP... so my opinion keeps getting less valuable. At any rate, I thought I would provide my simpleton opinion.
1) I checked their last quarterly report, and they had Total Liabiliites on the balance sheet of $15,738,941 of which $7,908,860 were derivative liabilities. Today's 8k says that they reduced derivative liabilities from approximately $7,909,000 to $25,000. This should result in a reduction of Total Liabilities from $15,738,941 to around $7,830,081. This is a good thing.
2) Building on #1 above... in that same last quarterly report they had Derivative Expense of just over $1,000,000 for the last quarter, and $2,000,000 for the preceding quarter. These expenses should go away in future quarters (not on next report), but will help profitability. This is a good thing.
3) No matter how you look at it... exchanging the shares to clean up the balance sheet is a positive. Now, we should be able to calculate how much they received for each share, because they reduced debt by $7,830,081 by issuing just over 500 million shares. If you divide the $7,830,081 by 500,000,000 you get just over $0.0156 - which means they got $0.015 per share (unless they left something out of the 8k. This is a very good thing if true.
4) Back to balance sheet - and here is where we see that #3 is likely not correct... but relatively close. Reducing debt by $7,830,081 should have reduced the Total Stockholder Deficit by $7,830,081 - however, the 8k states that Total Stockholder Deficit will only be reduced by $6,086,231 (from 11,417,000 to 5,330,769). I assume they picked up another $1,800,000 in debt.
CONCLUSION - This is all good in my opinion (which is worthless to most people). They definitely cleaned up the balance sheet, and it looks like they erased around $0.015 in debt for each share. Even if you add back in the additional $1,800,000 in debt so that they effectively traded 500,000,000 shares for $6,086,231 - then they still got $0.012 per share.
The cancellation of the buyback was a non event in my mind - and possibly a stipulation of issuing these shares for debt. I have another HUGE positive for you to mull over... someone just took a bunch of stock in exchange for money they were owed. Would you do that without some type of guarantee that those shares you just received would not be heavily diluted?
I read this as all positive news, but would be happy to hear from someone who disagrees.
Gross Margins are Grossly Low
I did a little more research over the night, and began looking at FITX (Creative Edge Nutrition). I would say they have somewhat similar products... here is what they stated in a release on August 22, 2012...
"For the three months ended June 30, 2012, the Company reported total revenues of $1,541,206, with a gross profit of $912,732. After operating expenses the company reported a net profit of $88,913 for the quarter."
Now, let's see how our gross margins compare...
-------------------------FITX--------------------MSLP
Rev------------------1,541------------------15,429
Gross Profit--------913---------------------2,487
Gross Margin------60%-------------------16%
Here is how MSLP must turn things around... increase gross margins - which is possible based on the FITX numbers. Let's say they get gross margins to 35% and sell $20million and leave SG&A at $4,250...
-------------------------MSLP
Rev--------------------20,000
Gross Profit----------7,000
Gross Margin------35%
SG&A-----------------4,250
Op Income-----------2,750 - a profit of $2,750,000
A Gross Margin of 50% would put operating profit over $5,000,000 for a quarter (assuming all other things are equal).
We have all been looking at the wrong places - it is not SG&A, it is not marketing - it is all in COGS. How can they be paying so much for their materials? The containers and ingredients cannot cost much - they are getting killed by their manufacturers.
Do you think it is possible (howbeit a longshot) that their consultants are there to help bring manufacturing in-house, and that the large warehouse would be used for this purpose - and that the large shares issued were for equipment? If so, wouldn't that be a huge PR. If they could get gross margins near to where FITX has them - the stock would take off and never look back.
Just my humble opinion, which is normally worthless.
I have seen it done before...
I cannot remember who, but there was a penny stock I was watching a few years ago (did not invest though). They had a similar problem of trying to use dilution as a solution, but they did not have the benefit of high (and rising) revenues and brand awareness.
At any rate, they did increase the A/S... but essentially promised that they would not increase the O/S unless it was absolutely necessary for survival, and they promised to put out a detailed press release following any O/S increase.
It would at least be nice to know what the 700 million or so shares released in the past 2 weeks was for.
Their only hope of not raising A/S...
is to decrease COGS per unit. They seem extremely high at 78% of sales; that is insanely high for a company such as this. There are no expensive materials in any of their products and they sell for a comparable high price. They must be getting killed by their manufacturers.
I really don't know why they issued so many shares over the last 2 weeks or so... that disturbs me, unless they were able to retire debt with it. It seems like most of those shares are being held, because I haven't seen that many getting dumped the last few weeks... now we seem to have some buying on higher volume - which is also intriguing.
Cash is king... and they have none - this is really their only problem.
I think they will increase the A/S, but have a statement about not increasing the O/S in the near term. They need the buffer of shares for emergency situations, and had hinted at raising the A/S to 3.5 billion already.
The minimal buyback they did last quarter was really a joke - but it seems like some people on this board took it seriously. It is like they said "We bought back 10 million shares" and did not mention that they issued another 700 million shares. People get all psyched up about the buyback without reading the reality of dilution.
I wish they had given more details on the consultants; it was almost treated like a secret. It could be anything at this point; I just wish we knew more details. They gave them 8.4% of the company which is currently valued at around $10 million - which is a hefty sum of money... they better be good and not just more family members.
They desperately need a positive quarter, where they can say:
1) We have gotten expenses (including COGS) in check
2) We have increased revenues
3) We have held SG&A relatively consistent
4) We have approved a reasonable compensation program
I feel that these points will make conventional financing a more viable option for them. The thing that is killing us all is that they are swapping shares for debt when the share price is at an all time low... an increase in share price would help limit further dilution if nothing else.
I am not sure that I answered your questions, but hopefully you can see my position on this stock...
Let's get serious...
All this talk is making me want to put some serious numbers down - understand that I am not being paid by anyone for this analysis, so please consider it as worthless as a share of MSLP.
First let's talk income...
-----------------09/30/2011----------12/31/2011----------03/31/2012----------06/30/2012
Total Rev--------4,444------------------6,337-----------------16,561-----------------15,429
Cost of Rev-----3,929------------------6,002-----------------12,895-----------------12,943
Gross Profit------515---------------------335-------------------3,666-------------------2,487
SG&A------------2,927----------------11,162-------------------4,393-------------------4,151
Op Income-----(2,412)--------------(10,827)-------------------(727)------------------(1,664)
Other Exp-------2,029--------------------587----------------(12,737)-------------------8823
Interest Exp------(500)------------------709-------------------2,571---------------------977
Net Income--------116---------------(10,949)----------------(16,035)------------------6,182
Now, let's look at these in detail... a quick glance says "How can their gross margins be so low?" And I agree - that is terrible to have a gross profit of only 2,487 on total sales of 15,429. Margins went down from Q1 to Q2 of this year, as revenue dropped while cost of those revenue stayed the same.
There is one line that is shouting "LOOK AT ME YOU BUNCH OF IDIOTS", and that is the Other Expense line, as this is where any Net Income or Net Loss comes from. Diving into this number required diving into the quarterly report financial statements.
March 31, 2012
Derivative expense - (1,457)
Change in fair value of derivative liabilities - (8,357)
Loss on settlement of A/P and debt - (2,942)
Interest expense - (2,571)
Other Income - 18
June 30, 2012
Derivative expense - (1,030)
Change in fair value of derivative liabilities - 9,854
Loss on settlement of A/P and debt - 0
Interest expense - (977)
Foreign Currency Transaction Loss - (2)
Other Income - 0
The question should be... how does change in fair value of derivative liabilities go from (8,357) in March 31 to 9,854 in June 30 of the same year? This is obviously a craps shoot with this company...
What they MUST do is get their cost of revenue (aka COGS) down in order to increase gross margins and gross profit. SG&A looks reasonable for this size of a growing company, and it seems to be working pretty well for them.
They need to get the negative retained earnings and their capitcal surplus off of their balance sheet, and it does look like the negative retained earnings increased by their net income the last quarter... these values need to continue to move back towards zero.
There is no doubt that they need (and will continue to need) cash, but they need to work on increasing revenues and decreasing COGS - these typically go hand-in-hand as economies of scale kick in. The other thing that will help them is IF they can reduce their discounting - which seems heavy on the Internet.
Overall, I am not shocked by anything I see in the income statements over the last 12 months... other than the other income/expense line which seems to bounce around WAY too much!
BALANCE SHEET
The balance sheet shows that total liabilities decreased from 24,762,000 on March 31 to 15,739,000 on June 30. This is good - and may explain why shares increased.
The negative is that total assets also decreased over the same period, but by a less amoung - which makes it a net positive quarter. Total assets decreased from 7,553,000 on March 31 to 4,726,000 on June 30.
The net was an increase in Stockholder Equity - from a value of (17,209,000) on March 31 to (11,013,000) on June 30.
CONCLUSION
Basically, they are in a pretty good growth condition but a poor cash position. They are poised for continued growth, as long as they continue to get cash to fund their operations. I think they appear to be trying to clean up their balance sheet, and their income statement did not look THAT bad.
They raised their annual revenue projections from $40 million to $75 million... they have had $32 million thus far. Assuming they make $20 million in revenue for Q3 and $23 in revenue in Q4 could give them the following assuming other things hold static (using Q1 margins as a basis - 22%)... and leaving SG&A static at 4,250,000.
-----------------09/30/2012----------12/31/2012
Total Rev---------20,000-----------------23,000
Cost of Rev------15,600-----------------17,940
Gross Profit------4,400-------------------5,060
SG&A--------------4,250-------------------4,250
Op Income----------150---------------------810
It will be hard for them to be very profitable this year... and the $1 million or so they spent at Olympia would likely go against the Q4 numbers erasing that potential profit.
Either way, continued revenue increases will eventually get this pig out of the mud, and controlling costs should be their second highest priority (behind increasing sales).
This is all my opinion - feel free to be wrong by disagreeing.
Hunterdog - I wish you were right...
You need to get away from placing a price valuation on a stock without some type of valuation methodology.
Assuming they make $10 million EBITDA next year (don't know, just throwing out a number) you might could put a 10x earnings on the stock. This would still be high for a pink sheets valuation, but we can use it for a point of reference. The valuation for this sample and multiple would be $100 million, or $0.04 per share.
It is hard to see any scenario where this gets to over $0.05 soon, unless their profits top $10 million EBITDA... and remember, there are other cash outflows below the EBITDA line.
Let's get some terms correct...
MSLP is making lots of money - FALSE - they are bringing in lots of money (revenue), but are making nothing. This is what makes it so hard to value them - revenues are good... but lack of profit and negative cash flow is bad. All growth companies start out spending much more cash than they bring in, but they must turn the corner soon or it may soon be game over.
A/S - Authorized Shares are those authorized by the BOD to be issued as Outstanding Shares.
O/S - Outstanding Shares are those that have actually been sold (or distributed in exchange for debt, products or services). These can be traded, but can also be held.
Stock Options and Warrants - These are already factored into the Outstanding Shares.
Float - Essentially the number of trading shares.
Reverse Split - a reverse split is where a company reduces the A/S and O/S which results in an immediate stock price increase - almost price fixing. For example, if they were to do a 1,000:1 reverse split, then the A/S and O/S would immediately be reduced by a factor of 1,000... meaning everyone would divide their current share count by 1,000; however, the share price would immediately go up by 1,000 - meaning your dollar position in teh company would not change. The result is net neutral to market cap.
My opinion (and it may be worth less than a single share of MSLP) is that MSLP must become Cash Flow Positive BEFORE they do a reverse split. A reverse split is required, because they must get the bid at $4 in order to qualify for NASDAQ listing - according to their listing requirements. This cannot happen without a reverse split because they have 2.5 billion A/S - which means they would need to have a market cap of $10 billion in order to meet the $4 per share at current structure.
If they were to reverse split before becoming Cash Flow Positive, then they would need to continue to issue more shares to meet operating requirements. We must wait until we see their next quarterly release to know what is happening, and I have not had time to look through their prior quarterly reports.
This stock will turn positive immediately upon a Cash Flow Positive quarter, because that will be the end of dilution... unfortunately, in their current state... dilution is the only solution. I don't really see them buying back shares though, as they will need to use that cash to continue to grow.
I stand by my prior valuation of 1x sales - at least with the information we currently have available to us. With annual sales currently around $75 million... I personally value this around $0.03 per share.
Now, let's say next year they can make $10 million EBITDA (very doable)... I would use a 8x EBITDA valuation and still get around $0.03. At that point (and ONLY at that point) would a reverse split make sense for us shareholders.
There are other factors in play here, such as the greediness of our executives - which has been nausiating so far. I am out THE MOMENT they either raise A/S or do a reverse split PRE Cash Flow Positive.
I think Undervalued...
They have way too many sales to go into BK... sales are intriguing as they can resolve issues. The problem with MP is that they tried to go too big too fast. It is like an analogy Mark Cuban used the other day on Shark Tank - they went for a home run (and hit a triple) when a single would have been fine. They went all in, adn got burnt.
They are now having to pay for those mistakes, and they are doing it with stock. The good news is that creditors are still willing to take stock as payment, implying they see some value in the stock. The bad news is that those creditors seem to be dumping the stock, implying they don't have much faith in the value of the stock.
I would value it currently somewhere around 1x sales, with the understanding they are too early in their life cycle to be very profitable. They made some mistakes early on that cost them big time, but there is nothing they cannot recover from - as long as sales numbers remain solid and continue to grow.
Putting it at 1x sales, and assuming sales are around $75MM would put the valuation at $0.03. This is my opinion, and may be worth less than a share of MSLP to most of you - but I think MSLP provides some value at these levels.
If I am not mistaken...
The O/S count takes into consideration all of the outstanding stock options and warrants.
I plan to do a tabular analysis of their last few quarterly reports and post that, but the problem is that I don't know what I can trust of their reports. I assume their last 2 were accurate; I'm not too sure about anything from last year.
ABSURD Valuation
Assuming all shares are outstanding (2,500,000,000) with a $0.005 share price values this company at $12.5 million. An absurd valuation if anything they report is true.
My biggest issue is the fact that they had a filing on 09/26/12 which stated they had 1,558,282,658 shares of common stock after the offering; then they had a filing on 10/05/12 (2 weeks later) which stated they had 2,321,005,466 shares of common stock after the offering. This is substantial dilution with no explanation - this is what concerns me the most.
What is the actual O/S count?
O/S Count
It has been awhile since I have been on here, but I own a few million shares. Just wondering... before this stock split - how much did they dilute us down to?
Do you know the O/S count?
I understand that the A/S is at 805,000,000 - but what is the O/S at?
I am not as worried about the authorized shares as I am the outstanding shares - I am trying to determine the current market capitalization.
There is nothing to draw other management...
Wake up and get real! IF this company has been as poorly managed by DB as people say - and is completely broke, with maxed out O/S and promised shares beyond that... then why would any other management team want to take the helm?
I can see taking over a lost ship wandering in the sea without a captain, but I cannot see taking over a partially sunk ship with a hole in the hull.
Hopefully DB is not as bad as some say... everything is heresay at this point. I will hold long and strong - either get a payout or declare shares worthless one day.
Maybe Steve Cunningham can be lawyer...
On the class action lawsuit - lol. This is just "par for the game" when investing in penny stocks; don't forget that many people declared their EQUR stock worthless in December of 2008 to take the writeoff.
It has been the same from Randy Harris / Steve Cunningham who passed off to Marty Zell (or should I say lost to Marty Zell) who passed off to Dean Bradley. None did what they said and none were truly punished with the exception of Steve Cunningham - so maybe he would like to see someone else get punished for this many year scam.
A good rule is to consider any dollars invested in a penny stock as worthless - never invest anything in a pink sheets company that you are not willing to lose.
Luckily I have only invested $10,000 or so in this stock - I feel real bad for those shareholders who invested money they cannot afford to lose. This stock has traded at $0.0001 before (late 2008 / early 2009) and was resurrected... but I cannot see that happening again thanks to the high O/S count.
Our only hope of a resurrection is for the O/S to be reduces CONSIDERABLY to under 1 billion - preferrably closer to 500 million. Then it would be a company someone else might be interested in taking up and running with.
This is only about distrust...
The sad thing is that we cannot trust our management. Dean has said so many things, put so many timetables out, so many promises... and has not delivered on any of them.
Now we get a solid PR last Friday about a purchase and we find ourselves even questioning whether the transaction took place of if the EBITDA projections are real.
This is sad! We are not waiting on funding IMHO, we are waiting on faith to be restored to management. They need to start following through with things they say - confidence in management is the only thing that will cause this stock to rise again.
Either way, I think the stock hangs around $0.004 until somthing further breaks (good or bad). The CET deal supports that price.
Becoming fairly valued...
Let's assume that at least the last PR was honest... I don't think Dean is going to lie directly about having closed a deal (maybe mislead about hoping to close deals).
Either way, let's assume his last PR (from Friday) about closing the deal was true - and that it will earn EBITDA of $700,000 the first 12 months.
IF this is true, then the $700,000 values the company around $7,000,000 (10 times EBITDA), which puts share price at $0.0046 - almost 30% higher than where it is currently.
NOW - assume the second part of the PR was true where he stated that Newby was going to return to QASP $725,000.
I don't think this stock goes much lower, unless even the CET thing is a lie.
My advice...
1) Get a list of SALN shareholders
2) Contact them all - joining together and demand an annual shareholder meeting
3) Force the CEO to answer questions - he is somewhat legally required to report to shareholders what is going on - or he could be voted out, or replaced
I have seen this happen a few times... in fact, it happened to EQUUS (the company where my name came from). A major investor in EQUUS did this exact thing, ousted the old CEO, shareholders voted him the new CEO, changed the name to QASP - and is now trying to make a run at it.
What SALN needs is a product... something to use their magazine to promote. The magazine is dead otherwise.
What is O/S count for this stock?
Seems that they really don't have a company anymore from Nevada Secretary of State point of view - what are you investing in?
If Dean buys back then issues PR...
I don't think that is right for him to do. If he has the money he should release that as soon as it is in the bank... he is crooked if he buys back shares before issueing this PR.
I am long and would like for the value to increase, but not at the expense of honest investors.
If volume hits something like 50 million by noon - then I expect a PR today - but do not agree with the method.
No news = no support for stock
Dean is no dummy... he knows that by giving such a firm stance on end of June that a P/R was required. If he does not issue a P/R this stock will likely hit $0.005 today.
I am shocked that he has not issued an update since the last 72 hour deadline passed; he is not managing P/R's very well.
Dean - if you are reading this - please do not issue P/R's or give firm deadlines if you do not intend to follow up with additional information once the deadline has passed.
I have almost lost all confidence in Dean, along with many other shareholders - evidenced by the recent drops in share price.
General questions...
I am interested in this stock for another reason, and have the following questions.
1) How many O/S - verified?
2) How much of the O/S is owned by current management?
3) Are there ever any shareholder meetings?
4) Any financial info at all? It is listed as a STOP on pinksheets.com due to no information (high risk).
Lack of PR indicates something is up...
I would think a PR would have been issued saying things are delayed had that been the case... Dean has not been lax about releasing PR's.
I think something positive is happening, otherwise we would have heard now that the 72 hours are up.
Just my opinion.
Good to see you still here!
Either worth 0.20+ or worthless...
Getting excited about these fraction of a cent moves is ignorant. This stock is worth $0.20 if what Dean says is true - based on 30MM profit in 2010 with 150MM revenue - as he stated... assuming 1.5 billion shares.
IF the news comes out as he stated, then this should hit $0.20 - interestingly enough, right where the warrants are set.
IF nothing happens and the loan falls through, then this is worthless.
This is the gamble... everyone place your bets.
Either worth $0.20 to $0.60 or worthless...
This is simple... if things work as Dean says then they will make enough to be worth $0.20 at deal closings, and if they triple earnings next year it should be worth $0.60 next year. Simple math - IF IF IF IF IF IF IF IF and ONLY IF management follows through with its promises this time!
There lies the issue - as I have said many times, it is purely an issue of credibility. Either they do what they say and it goes to $0.20 immediately (funny where warrants are) - or they continue to delay and the stock becomes worthless.
I do have a question as to warrants... how will they be carried out? I remember in once CC where Dean said something about who would be upset with a $0.20 price. What does Newby get the option of buying at $0.20? All outstanding shares?
Remember, there are no shares left - either Newby buys already issued shares or there must be an A/S increase for warrants.
Also - this is why there will be no A/S increase - it would devalue the warrants.
No buyback if OS is increasing
That just does not make sense - they would not increase the O/S count while buying back... someone explain to me how that would make sense? Would be a money trap.
I think things were looking up so they bought back and retired some shares last week, then they unexpectedly needed to issue more shares. That turn-a-round was NOT a positive, so they will NOT make that same mistake again.
They will wait for the funds to close, then start the massive buyback that they have promised - if not, there will be lawsuits.
We are all hanging on the hope that they have enough shares leftover to make it another week (for funds) without having to increase the A/S. This stock will TANK if they have to raise A/S again.
IMO of course...
Who is happy with $0.02?
You are all rediculous... if investors had any confidence in anything management said - then this stock would be at $0.20. If they make $30 million profit this year, that values the company arounnd $300 million (10 x earnings). Divide by 1.5 billion shares gives a value of $0.20. If they triple in 2011 as he stated, then the stock would trade at $0.60 next year. Close to one dollar per share on a real exchange (15 x earnings)
Dean has guaranteed those numbers to happen - conservatively.
Now - there is only one reason for the discounted price - lack of management credibility.
You should not celebrate $0.02 or even $0.05 - if what Dean says is true then $0.20 is a foregone conclusion, and $0.60 is coming within a year.
Too many PR's look desperate.
I think this is another reason QASP is not trading where it should be. There is just no confidence in what the PR's say. Dean needs to hold off on PR's until he can say "the loan has closed"; he has been burned too many times by saying "the loan will close next week" and it not happen.
The stock will not trade much higher until management gains credibility with investors.
Credibility is a problem...
Like it or not, there is no real reason for major investors to believe Dean. I am holding long and strong, but I have just seen similar press releases come and go with nothing every happening.
This stock will not shoot up until things start closing - first money coming in, then the buyback that has been announced forever starts, then the acquisitions get completed and announced.
At that point, I think this will get to at least $0.20.
It is not about buyback... only earnings and O/S
If anyone believes that they will make profit in 2010 of $30 million, then the value of this company is pretty easily $300 million (10 x earnings).
Now, assume that he keeps O/S at no more than 1.5 billion shares.
Divide that out gives a value per share of $0.20 - at $30 million profit. If that profit is tripled in 2011, then the share price triples also - to a value of $0.60 in 2011, but prices are typically based on forward projections.
This means it could conceivably get to $0.50 or so... depending on acquisitions and how much investors believe his profit projections - unfortunately, EQUR and QASP does not have a history of hitting on their promises.