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Something is happening. Whatever it is, I hope it continues.
I have a Mr. Heater in my basement and it works great. Also gives my a piece mind knowing I have something if the electricity goes out.
You may be right, who knows? All I know is that I’m holding both until results.
True, the difference is that companies cannot market the drug for off-label use. In the short term, once approved, doctors and patients can use it for other off-labels cancers, however; the question that remains is whether or not insurance companies will cover MK for off-label use. It may take some time, but you are correct, I believe the market for MK is much much bigger than just head and neck cancer.
Thanks Sab, I hope you have a great new year too.
The time frame you stated may be “normal”. All I’m saying is that there are plenty of reasons for it to take longer and taking longer doesn’t negate all of the other info out there that point to success.
Good luck to you in all your investments!
Hey Sab, I wouldn’t put any stock into the 2-3 week timeline (not sure where you got that) it’s either a speculation or an average and we all know, or should know, that this trial is not average. The length of the trial, number of patients enrolled, etc. all impact the time it takes to conduct the data analysis.
Plus you have to pretty much throw out a week for Christmas and a week for New Year’s. Very little happens those two weeks in the corporate world.
COVID is likely impacting the analysis through absenteeism and not just confirmed cases of COVID, but suspected and quarantined employees due to potential exposure. If the analysis is being done remotely, then it’s through VPN, which slows down computer processes.
Once the computers crunch the numbers, you still need people to interpret the data and write up the analysis.
It takes time and each trial is different from the next, so you can’t fit it all into a nice and neat timeline of when to expect results, top line or otherwise.
I don’t have a guess on when results will be released, but I’m not sweating it. We’ll get results at some point and based on all the info I have seen, I believe they will be good.
LMAO!
Droid and SAB,
You are both right. There are a lot of dumbasses on Twitter and there are also a lot of people with good, insightful posts. It’s just a matter of weeding through the garbage to find value, which can take time and patience. Pretty much the same as any public forum.
Does anyone else’s heart jump every time they get a news alert from CVM? I was expected a press release on the closing of the offering and still my heart skipped a few beats thinking this may be “it.”
Thank you for your service and thanks to all of us who have served.
$9 for the DOW or CVM? J/K. Everything will tank that’s for sure.
Awful, just awful. And the market isn’t helping.
Amen. Another Penn Stater here.
Thanks G8T, total possible outstanding shares have been a moving target and hard for me to keep up with. I’ll start using 55.5M for estimates.
G8T, I agree with your valuation somewhere between 15-20B as a starting point, maybe higher depending on % efficacy over SOC and multiple offers. It could potentially be lower if efficacy is only around 10% above SOC (let’s hope not).
What did you use for the number of outstanding shares with warrants and options exercised? I’m using 55M as an estimate, but I’m not sure how accurate that is anymore.
This is an interesting conversation, I guess we’ll have to see where it goes, but for now I just don’t see autonomous vehicles used as a “smart bomb” as an increased risk.
Interesting take Lightrock, however, I don’t believe terrorists using an autonomous vehicle to deliver a bomb will destroy the market.
The threat of car bombs already exists, so really the only thing that would change is the need for a suicide bomber to drive the vehicle and terrorist organizations do not have a shortage of those.
I would think that initially the high cost and limited availability (easily traced, small resale market) of autonomous vehicles would be prohibitive for terrorists to use them. Also, the GPS and sensors used to drive them would make it easy to track where the vehicle has been and cameras on the vehicle would record images of who was around the vehicle. If any of those are disabled, then the vehicle doesn’t work.
The terrorists may eventually find a way to use them, but by the time that happens, they will be so ingrained in western society that people won’t just stop buying them.
I think it will hit $75 on its way up. Eventually, I believe a fair valuation with Multikine approval will be around double digit billions, say around $8-12 billion. With an estimated 55 million shares outstanding, pps would be around $180 at $10 billion market cap.
I may be over optimistic, but that’s how I see it.
You’re right, however, IMO, it only matters to a small degree—any impact to pps will be temporary. PIII results will be the deciding factor, regardless of what between now and then.
I don’t believe a lower pps at the time results are announced will have much (if any) impact on the pps following the announcement of a successful PIII.
My interpretation of the rules for disclosing a material event is that data lock does not have to be announced. Will Cel-Sci announce it? No clue and not sure if it really matters.
Very good questions and I would love to know the answers.
Robot, I understand your frustration, but please step away from the ledge.
The length of time it takes to achieve data lock and analyze results is not an indicator of failure. For years it’s only been about the success or failure of Multikine, not how long it takes to get there.
The COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented and has created enormous challenges to almost all aspects of business. Is it not unreasonable to think that COVID alone could account for delays that even Geert couldn’t predict?
I am anxious for results, especially given the time and money I’ve invested in this stock, but the evidence still points to success, in my opinion.
This is very similar to my story with CVM, and like you, I am in until the end—good or bad. I think it will be good, based on all the evidence available.
The manipulation on this stock has been tremendous and I expect that to continue until the end. I will not sell on rumors of failure that are likely to spread again (was it February, when a rumor caused panic selling?). I will only sell after data is released and maybe Not until approval or a buyout.
I forgot to add: hahaha the SEC hahaha.
Good luck to longs!
You said it yourself, Longs can only lose 100% of their investment, shorts could lose many multiples of 100%. So the negative impact is much greater for shorts.
Next weigh out the argument for both sides, IMO, the evidence points overwhelmingly to success. Just for the sake of this discussion, let’s say there is an even likelihood of success/failure.
Risk = likelihood * impact
Therefore, shorts have a higher risk.
I think the risk is much higher for shorts, because I believe the likelihood of phase III success is much greater than the likelihood of failure.
No, I didn’t hear that. As long as CVM shorts get burned, I’ll be happy.
It’s unbelievable. I guess the shorts are dumb enough to hold their positions until top line results are released. I know I wouldn’t be comfortable with that amount of risk.
The Seeking Alpha author is confused between S-1 filings and form 4 filings.
The S-1 filings just register the shares Geert received by exercising warrants with the SEC, if he were to then sell those shares he would need to file a form 4.
He has no credibility, too stupid to know the difference between S-1 and form 4 and too lazy too Google it.
I can’t wait to see it.
Thanks Robot, interesting read. I wonder if CVM shorts will get burned like Tesla shorts or if they will try to drive the price down and cover before top line results.
I guess it comes down to whether they are betting on Multikine failure or just playing the ups and downs of the PPS.
Q, thanks for clarifying. Predicting an announcement that catches the shorts off guard does fit with the context of the rest of your post, I however misread it as a prediction that the shorts will attack—thanks again for the clarification.
I won’t comment on whether I agree or disagree with your prediction, there’s just to many unknowns when it comes to releasing clinical trial results, but I would love to see the shorts get burned with an unexpected announcement.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts and opinions.
Robot, I find value in your posts and opinions. Just because others try to control the narrative around CVM—for their own manipulative purposes—doesn’t mean everyone needs to be in lockstep with what they post.
Charmed, same here. Let’s hope our patience is rewarded!
“Only” a few more weeks—It’s going to feel like a lifetime.
As Sushi said, PATIENCE.
A long, long time. I’m more excited for the results than ever. Good luck!
Full PR:
CEL-SCI Corporation (NYSE American: CVM) announced today that it has been notified that it has reached the targeted threshold of 298 events (deaths) required to conduct the data evaluation for its pivotal Phase 3 head and neck cancer study of Multikine* (Leukocyte Interleukin, Inj.) immunotherapy. The database is now being prepared for database lock. Once the database has been locked the final analysis of the trial results can be performed. CEL-SCI will continue to remain blinded to the study results throughout this process. CEL-SCI will be advised of the results when the analysis is completed and the study results will be announced to the public and investors at that time.
The CROs involved in study management are generating the remaining queries, performing source data verification, completing medical review, and building the final database needed to produce the final tables, listings, and figures.
Geert Kersten, Chief Executive of CEL-SCI said, “We have conducted this 928 patient pivotal Phase 3 study for over nine years because we hope to improve the current standard of care for advanced primary head and neck cancer. We believe that the activation of the immune system by Multikine BEFORE the ravages of surgery, radiation and chemotherapy can improve the survival of these patients. I am incredibly proud of the dedication of our amazing team who has made all of this possible.”
Database lockdown will begin and Cel-Sci will remain blinded to the results.
298 events has been reached. CVM just issued a PR.
I think trust baby was banned during the whole dung fungus ordeal.
Maybe LEAPS will cure her dark lord and drag her back into the fires.