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Hi LuLeVan, Maybe we start with the 2019 US Treasury Report as supplemented by the 2021 Letter Agreement?
Here is the 2021 Letter Agreement:
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1236
Hi LuLeVan - good discussion. Do you think a new DJT Admin would deviate from the plans laid out in the last one? It would seem that DJT would be more populous in his orientation this time - especially after his ex NEC Director who was the COO at GS abandoned him- not sure if there is a lot of love for the Wall Street establishment?
Here are the last plans: https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/Treasury-Housing-Finance-Reform-Plan.pdf
Does anyone know if Agenda47 has anything on GSE reform?
Thanks Ace Trader - it seems like its trading better than the news would support - thanks for your insights.
Hi Ace Trader - do you have a theory why the stock continues to trade higher? Regarding John Paulson - why wouldnt he want the JPS investors to get there 34 bn back and the Common shareholders to get their companies back. He doesnt seem like a greedy guy to me because of his charitable history but if he was - seems like there is more money to be recouped by a speedy exit rather than the status quo?
For the record the Senate Banking Committee held a Hearing on 3/12/24 on Affordable Housing
Brainard Urban Institute - Just found this link - have not watched yet
Wish her the best - if she wants to return to private life she deserves it. Maybe Sandra wants to do the same?
Agreed DCBill - dont know why people think he gave such a good SOTU address. Glad we are on the same page.
Good point stockprofitter ! Maybe wait a couple months and get by on hotdogs or smoothies until then? The better question what if you are a vegan connoisseur? I dont know if you have seen what a vegan pizza costs but I think you are getting above my price targets - at least in the near term? I am sure there will be pull backs but it sure seems that this most recent price action is significant?
Agreed - Free LuLeVan!! At least one poster continuously acts as a profuse apologist for JB and they get more than one post. LuLeVan should not get censored
Good suggestion Guido - but this is America and GSE shareholders should have the freedom to choose - two hot dogs or one mango smoothie - the right to liberty and the pursuit of happiness - whether you are a vegan or a hot dog connoisseur! Go Fannie - go Freddie!
Hi Kthomp - the application of the Compromise of Debts provisions of the CFR to the SPS comes from the CBO GSE Restructuring Paper - Do you disagree with the CBO on this point?
Thats right imbellish - WOW - Congrats to every one who has held in there so far - way to go Mr. Michael!! Thanks to all of those who have stood by and defended the rights of GSE shareholders - Guido- Robert- Rodney- Barron and others. Remember when some were saying the stock was worthless or only worth 10 cents? I am 99.9% JPS but I wish all GSE shareholders well and especially the common shareholders today.
Thanks Stockman1010101 Mother Cabrini is the first American Saint. Mother Cabrini please pray for justice and equity for all the GSE shareholders and their families.
Thanks Guido - found it - it is Note 8 of the Financial Report of the US Treasury which is dated Feb 15, 2024 so it has been out a while. The text explanation for Note 8 is an interesting read.
https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2023/notes-to-financial-statements-2023.pdf
Does anyone know what document this is an excerpt from? It seems significant that the UST has taken a haircut on the SPS in this report. There has to be a basis for the "compromise of debts" in the CFR and this is a rational basis.
Hi Rodney - Ralph Nader and DJT have the same opinion:
Here is what Ralph Nader stated in a Letter to UST Jacob Lew in 2013 - even before the FCIC docs came out showing all the pre-conservatorship deceit.-
"Unfortunately, shareholders were adversely affected because of their reliance on misleading statements
about the financial strength of the GSEs made by many high-ranking government officials prior to the
imposition of the conservatorship in September of 2008.
The abuse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac common stockholders by the FHFA knows few bounds"
Here is the link:
https://nader.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/lew-5-18-13-11.pdf
Thanks LuLeVan - the most significant part of the quote may be what he said about banks.
"It's uh, so normally I would be a very heavy investor in banks today... but how do you invest in a business where again one regulator on one panicky day can take your assets away from you?" It seems he is saying that Collins has much larger ramifications for back door Nationalizations of banks?
Can say the same thing about NY Real Estate and maybe Delaware Corporations when it comes to politicalization of local judges and judicial systems?
Good Morning Red Cloud,
Great Question - who has been accumulating the GSE Common - this is especially important because all of the cram down advocates have continually highlighted the cram down risk from the SPS Conversion. It seems clear that the plaintiff's lawyers in the Lamberth litigation have a lot of non public knowledge about who owns FMCC Common and the FNMA/FMCC JPS since there will be an allocation of damages to these shareholders. They may not know actual holders but they would know holdings by clearing firms which would indicate the type of holders and they would know changes in holdings by clearing firms during the term of the litigation.
Really interesting posts real777mellon. Let me guess - you live/lived in Ciudad Colonia del Sacramento and take the ferry into BA for work?
Thanks blownaccount9. I am assuming being capped out at PAR on the JPS and assuming PE multiple expansion on the common as institutions become fully weighted in the common over a couple year period. Of course all assumptions.
Thanks Guido - it seems like great work by Bryndon and his SF Lawyers.
Compelling use of recent SCOTUS precedent from Tyler, Cedar Point and Horne ( Calif. Raisin Board) - also the Fabulous Webb Case (first time I have seen this one) to include the earnings from the taken property.
Set up for En Banc appeal in DC Circuit and potential SCOTUS Cert consideration. Great logic and use of recent SCOTUS precedents for SCOTUS Cert - long shot but seems like best possible use of legal precedent to take the long shot.
Go Guido!!! Go Bryndon!!
Thanks!!!
I will sell FNMAT at PAR and buy common what ever the price is. There should be multiple expansion over a couple year period as index funds become fully weighted again in the GSEs.
Hi Skeptic7 - looks like you are raising your max price target from $ 0.50 to $ 1.75 for 12/31/24?
Hi LuLeVan - previous post with example CRT Issuance from 2023. Each CRT has a minority owned member of the Selling Group.
Hi LuLeVan - previous post
Thanks LuLeVan,
My question is why do the GSEs need to pay minority owned firm Selling Agents since the CRTs seem to be a great deal for the investors and a bad deal for the GSEs. Is the FHFA really acting in the best interest of the Special Conservatorship and the US Taxpayer? Are there conflicts of interest between the FHFA staff and the Selling Agents - seems like there would be since these conflicts are usually normal course of business in DC?
Hi Rodney,
Thanks for the follow up. I can add content but I dont want to be the one bringing it forward
The Opt outs are public - in one of the filings on GB.com. No really big holdings - perhaps some people opted out of select accounts? I know I have seen the list - definitely after the jury verdict.
Definitely trading well - the question I have is why did the stock run up from 0.44 in the first place. Was it the GB type of news story which may be correct some day or was it just a pre-DJT trade based on polling? I got to believe that the SOTU will give us good information if a GB/JB type of deal is in the works?
HI Amelia - I am rooting for you! By the way what does the fox and shoe icon mean? - I just clicked it to show support hoping it is good. Someone else chose these icons.
Hi Chronic - good insight - I believe someone mentioned this. The open question is whether or not any restructuring will need a fairness opinion under Delaware Law since it has to do with the equity of the GSEs and not the assets?
Thanks Rodney - I am thinking that it should just be factually based and maybe footnoted. Our problem is that the plaintiff's attorney can almost never get in the courtroom with the facts but get shut down on procedural grounds. The one time that only SOME of the facts were presented to a jury - we won 8-0 - IN DC!!. We need to get the facts into the Court of General Opinion and make the Congress think about what is right but probably more importantly what could happen in the future with other public private partnerships and other regulated entities.
Hi JOoa0ky - do the plaintiffs lawyers know who are the holders of FMCC common since they will be receiving a payment? It would be interesting to know if there are other large holders other than Ackman.
Hi Rodney - what do you think about coming up with a Magna Carta like document that lists all the way the USG has screwed all shareholders. Perhaps this is something common and JPS can agree on? We can use this list to remind the FHFA and Congress about the historical facts and have it publicly disseminated so the facts cant be rewritten at the wrong time for shareholders? I gave you my list a couple of days back but I just focused on pre-Conservatorship.
Hi LuLeVan - the question I have is whether the Estate for the Special Conservatorship includes the equity of the GSEs or just the assets. I would argue that the equity of the GSEs is not part of the Conservatorship Estate.
Thank LuLeVan - Collins is gone but I am wondering if the plaintiffs decided that they liked the Opinion enough and see what happens in the CFPB case. I am probabably wrong but the Opinion seems to be plaintiff friendly even though we lost the appeal on procedural issues.
Dont the plaintiffs have to appeal to have the case heard En Banc?
Hi imbellish - it looks like there was not an En Banc Appeal for Collins in the 5th - correct?