Thank you all for all of the very informative info on this Board. It has been incredibly helpful in fully understanding this massive opportunity. I don’t believe that this variable has been mentioned with respect to the valuation opportunity. Biogen lost $25B in market cap after announcing that they were discontinuing their Phase 3 Aducanumab drug trial. The market would have factored in the likelihood of success and therefore, discounted the potential valuation relative to this trial. Assuming a 50% chance of success, the market would have attributed $50B in value to an AD drug that slows the decline. I doubt this was a 50-50 market assumption, but a lesser likelihood of success, given the history of AD trials. Maybe 25%, resulting in $100B.
And all of this doesn’t even take into account MS, PD, Fragile X, etc.
I’d love to hear your thoughts on this.