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I was hoping to see more insider buys after last weeks colossal collapse. And we got it !!! A 25,000 share buy at $3.00. May be more will trickle in !!!
A couple thoughts:
Fist, I've been having a hard time believing Jugs age. He's too sharp and quick witted.
Second, Jugs seems convinced NGL will cut the distribution. I think he "knows" it, not guesses it.
Third, looking back an the dividend history of NGL, they have NEVER not paid a dividend, and nothing as low as a mere .10 cents. I hear a lot of you saying "I've seen this before". I.e. the oil war, price collapse, etc. So what makes this time more dreadful that requires a zero dividend ???
Lastly, and just checking, REITs have to pay a dividend, so I'm assuming MLPs do not?
Thanks.
I think it because of 2 items that came out yesterday from Trump:
1. Financial support for shale producers
2. Potential oil import ban
Neither of these confirmed yet, just talk.
wow, a preferred board!? Nice find bar.... i had no idea.......
Sanctions coming? Could be great news. Trump considering sanctions on oil imports in response to Russia/Saudi. They will do this in the name of national security. Up 20% since my big buy yesterday. A generational opportunity. Thank you coronavirus, now don't kill me please.........
You know your shit, Thanks!!!! As far as Trump helping the shale producers, maybe I missed this earlier today and is why NGL turned positive, not sure. Hopefully not though and we get a bump tomorrow.
CNBC is reporting now that Trump is considering some sort of help for US oil producers. He stated earlier help for the cruise lines. (we have US owned cruise lines!?!?). So, we may get another bump tomorrow on this.
OXY was mentioned. How much further downside would we expect in NGL if they cut their dividend next? Or maybe that scenario is baked in already!?
My how things have changed,LOL. Well, I tried to buy 10,000 shares at $2.72 and they halted the shares. Then they un-halted it in AH and it went up substantially to $3.40. Did I get screwed OR did the market save me from myself? Time will tell. I am VERY interested to see (sometime this week) if there were any insiders buys today.
I'll go out on a limb an call $2.72 the bottom for NGL.
NGL halted again with 6 trading minutes to go....
Jugs, you wouldn't buy at NGL now at $3.26? You would have to think it has a chance to go BK if not now.... !?!?
Holy Shit, correct me if I am wrong, but a 30% drop in oil tomorrow is a record, right? I mean historic? This is a commodity we are talking about, they are not supposed to drop by that much.
Russia breaks Opec oil alliance as it takes on US shale:
https://www.ft.com/content/c1b899ec-5fe5-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4
p.s. Great thoughts (as usual) Jugs.
I hear you Jugs. My danger meter is showing red. But I heard Sam Zell this morning saying he thinks the oil sector is way oversold and he is buying. When it hurts to buy, it's usually the right move. It hurts.
Ok, I'm holding my nose and buying more. I thought my $9.50 initial purchase was well timed. 25% lower, I'm buying more. I know bar1080 will be disappointed, but I agree, have to go with the insiders on this.
Those huge April and July $7.50 puts have really paid off for the buyers. Wish I were one of them. Ho hum...................
Yes. Oil gave up it's gains today and so did NGL. CNBC just talked about oil (as they do every day). There is an OPEC meeting tomorrow. The thought is they need to cut by one million barrels per day. But they need get Russia to go along with this. Libya and Iran production should be coming on line soon, that is a worry. So it appears there is more pain to come. You know I was thinking. When will I wake up in the morning and here some big oil well has dried up, sending prices through the roof. These things do dry up at some time, right? I mean, are they bottomless? If so, why can't I get a bottomless Martini glass?
The democrats have proposed a tax on trading. If passed, that will replace the commission cost. Ya can't win I tell ya. NGL has got to have a bottom. Where is it is the question. (I had to mention NGL so Jugs wouldn't delete my post, LOL).
It's maddening to see this up every morning and then sell off. At this rate, with zero commissions, maybe it's best to sell in the morning and buy back before the close every damn day.
Head Scratcher. Oil And the market are up. What am I missing???
Yes... love those insider buys. Yesterday (2/27) NGL made a big down day (-9%) reversal. I believe that was because of news of the CEO buying shares.
20% yield as of today....yikes......
No... what I mean to say is that if NGL customers fail... they will get taken over and their business taken over by another player, not NGL. This would mean NGL services continue to be in demand.
That's a good question and I have given that some thought. I think if they fail, they will be bought out and that business will go on. That's my hope anyways. Jugs, I like your margin idea, I have implemented a similar style after hearing you talk about it. I too am waiting to go back to using margin. Best of luck.
There is a Nostradamus among us. There is over 22,000 open interest on the April $7.50 puts. And there looking really good for that person at the moment...
NGL: Blue don't look good on you .... and neither does that Eight handle.
I am adding also. I have been recording the daily numbers of corona virus cases since 1/29. The number of cases has been clearly declining. I fail to understand why the market is freaking out. So it spread to Italy... that's a surprise? Come on Man.......
Pete/Trueheart... thanks for the reply. Learned something new!!!
It was nice to see NGL hold up nice on an ugly day in the market.
"It's not important to pick the bottom, just so long as you get close to it". by TBM :) Have a great weekend.........
Which oils are high in sulfur?? Thanks.
I got my feet wet this morning. I just feel like I got lucky to buy again at the $9.50 price. With the coronavirus slowing down, I suspect oil may reverse from here. It was after all, the main catalyst for the most recent selloff. I'm expecting a relief rally....
TDAmeritrade downgraded NGL to sell yesterday. A little late, don't cha think!!?!?
That makes perfect sense. Although such a scenario of banned shale in the US would be super bad for NGL right? So then we would want to own the big integrated buys like Exxon and Chevron?
There is a slew of insider activity the past 2 days. Of note, how is the schedule 13G by Harvest Fund Advisors to be interpreted? It shows 0% held... is this a selling off of all shares of NGL? Thanks.
https://www.streetinsider.com/SEC+Filings/Form++SC+13GA+++NGL+Energy+Partners+LP+++++++++++++++++Filed+by%3A+Harvest+Fund+Advisors+LLC/16473038.html
Hi True.... Regarding this part: "OPEC will do another number on America akin to the '70s oil embargo that forced gasoline prices through the car roof...".
Although I would like to see rising oil prices, I question if OPEC has the ability anymore to influence the price of oil like they once used to. It appears that every time oil goes higher, the US and other non OPEC countries pump out more to take advantage of the higher prices, thus driving the price back down again. An endless cycle.
Avita now has a one billion dollar market cap!? I used to think of this as a micro cap company. Damn....
Anyone think the company needs to raise cash? Looking at TDAmeritrade, it shows 53m in cash/short term investments AND zero long term debt. There are liabilities of course. I'm no expert in reading financial statements. But it doesn't look like they need cash!?!? Thanks.
Damn jugs, you sound like a corporate lawyer....I thought you were a Texas red neck, LOL. OK, most of that was over my head. I'll take my queue from oil prices. If it goes up with what looks to be sustainable factors... then, I'm back in. No need to push this. As you say, there are great opportunities else where.
Last quarter 97m, this quarter 41m. That doesn't sound good. I know some assets were sold off. So... is this a good report? I also get .39 of the drop is related to the x dividend....
Jugs brings up a great point about negative sentiment in oil right now. Just look at Tesla. Cramer pointed out that very many funds are selling oil and buying socially acceptable companies. This outflow from oil related investments is going into companies such as Tesla. Now, you can certainly argue that enough is enough and take a contrarian stand and say this is bottom. Maybe it is.
Scary prediction by Jim Cramer on the future of oil.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-stocks-are-the-new-tobacco-in-death-knell-phase-says-jim-cramer-2020-01-31?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo