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No one is "attempting to shake weak hands". The stock price has been in a consistent downtrend since September because of the market being down and it will keep going towards $5 until results are out.
There is no conspiracy here. It's just a deeply unpopular stock that most investors don't care about and it will continue to loosely track the market until circumstances change.
We'll just have to wait and see I guess. This week may very well be the last one before results are out.
Over baseline. The 2018 paper about the first phase 2b results is in the ibox if you want to take a closer look.
Yes, but you should also keep in mind that we got a +6 after 15 weeks in the #202 trial. Not much of a reversal of the decline if scores start dropping after 15 weeks, no matter what Dr. Alkon says.
I think it needs to be higher. +4 is just what they got in moderate non-memantine patients after 13 weeks. If the drug actually reverses the decline it needs to be at least +6 after 28 weeks.
Here's what Derek Lowe had to say about the 2017 results:
"Furthermore, the test that the company makes much of is the Severe Impairment Battery (SIB). It's a 100-point scale, and the company says that the bryostatin-treated patients improved by 2.6 points on it at 13 weeks (difference between treatment group and placebo). Big deal. Aricept (donepezil), an approved Alzheimer's drug which is already known not to slow the progression of the disease one bit, but merely improve symptoms for a while, has an improvement of 5 SIB points at that same time point (as AndyBiotech noted from the drug's package insert)."
https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/neurotrope-shameful-pr-stunt
Almost 17 million fully diluted shares. I probably won't update the ibox market info until the next 10-K clarifies a few things.
Just double checked the PRs and realized the Friday PR was released in the morning, not afternoon.
2017:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/neurotrope-bioscience-to-release-results-from-phase-2-clinical-trial-in-moderate-to-severe-alzheimers-disease-on-may-1-2017-300447822.html
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/neurotrope-announces-positive-top-line-results-from-phase-2-study-of-bryostatin-1-for-moderate-to-severe-alzheimers-disease-300448563.html
2019:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/neurotrope-announces-top-line-results-from-confirmatory-phase-2-study-of-bryostatin-1-in-moderate-to-severe-alzheimers-disease-300913655.html
Topline data for the last two trials was announced on a Monday morning and in 2017 they announced a Monday morning CC on the preceding Friday afternoon while in 2019 they didn't.
This time could be different of course, but it's easier to assume they'll stick to old patterns.
Let's see if they announce a CC on Friday afternoon...
He's just a critic, and good data should hold up against all kinds of criticism.
If data is questionable it deserves to be scrutinized.
AF is not impressed.
It appears that once again, $AVXL is not reporting the true, prospectively defined primary endpoint from its clinical trial.
— Adam Feuerstein ✡️ (@adamfeuerstein) December 2, 2022
We already know for a fact that the drug is safe and if they nail this one we'll also know it's effective after 6 months. No need to talk about subgroups anymore if they can maintain that ~0.3 point slope while placebo declines.
If they can stay over baseline after 4 additional months of no dosing that would be even more unprecedented.
Anyways, let's see if they announce a CC after close on Friday next week first. We probably only have 6 trading days left before results are out.
The company is valued using 17 million fully diluted shares, not the 7 million ones currently outstanding.
Current market price means it's worth $100 million now if they succeed. Failure means most if not all warrants will expire worthless.
I'm not sure why people keep undervaluing good results here. If they can beat SOC they'll have a better drug than anything else on the market. Why would people refuse to buy that for more than $1 billion when Biogen and Eli Lilly gain and lose $15 billion on their phase 3 trial updates?
Here's an article about it:
https://ipwatchdog.com/2021/10/26/assessing-much-alzheimers-drug-worth/
"Based on the event studies on Biogen’s Aducanumab and Lilly’s Donanemab, the value of a drug candidate at or ready for Phase 3 trial would be worth $20.2 billion to $20.7 billion, and a Breakthrough Therapy Designation has a value of $13.4 billion. An Alzheimer’s drug approved by the FDA carries a market value of $43.4 billion."
Just cut those numbers in half assuming an eventual partnership takes 50% of the cake.
The brain is mostly made of fat, so it would make sense that cholesterol, which is a type of fat, plays a part in neurodegeneration when it's dysregulated.
Bryostatin binds to the same site as DAG, which is a type of fat that activates PKC.
If all goes well their more potent future drug candidates will probably be some type of fat that can be taken as a pill similar to fish oil capsules.
Markets will tell the truth regardless of how the PR is worded.
Our results should be out in about two weeks now. Maybe three.
Just look at what happened after the last trial.
Price dropped from $5 to $0.60. It did eventually recover but you asked me about the floor.
$1.
If results disappoint it's going to get ugly. Don't invest any money you can't afford to lose.
Doesn't mean anything if you ask me. We had two days before the raise where the price was slowly walked up over 10% by one or several institutions before the volume returned to normal levels, but everyone seemed to be just fine with that.
It's a shame the company raised more cash at these prices, but it's very unlikely to have anything to do with results because the preferred shareholders will lose most of their investment and be able to sue the company for withholding material information if the company issued those shares knowing results are bad. Other investors can also sue if that information is withheld from them but not the preferred shareholders.
The convertible preferred shares reduce potential losses for the buyers but it doesn't completely eliminate them.
If Doc is right it should take another week or two before the company actually knows what the results are. Writing a PR doesn't take much time once you have the data.
6 weeks sounds about right. That would mean we have about 6.5 trading days left before we enter the danger zone.
Anyone hoping to trim their position before results should act quickly, because I doubt there's many buyers left this close to results and it wouldn't surprise me if we go into results below $6.00.
Yes, let's not recommend this stock to newcomers who haven't done their DD.
The risk is too big and they should wait for results first, which should be out in only a few weeks.
I know the guy isn't very popular around here, but I'm still curious to see what Feuerstein will have to say about the results from both companies.
Aren't both companies revealing AD results next month? No need to argue if the proof is right around the corner.
Sure, it's not very important now, but if results are good we'll want someone on the top that actually has connections in the industry and knows how to squeeze big pharma for all they've got.
Oh well. I should probably stop speculating and just wait for the results lol.
What I'm saying is the CEO and most of the directors seem replaceable and not very important for the continued growth of the company.
I have a feeling that Alkon, Silverman and Weinstein are the only ones driving the company forward with the rest just warming their seats until Silverman can find someone better to replace them with.
I guess the SAB looks good too, but those are just advisory roles.
CEOs have come and gone but the chairman has been around since the beginning.
He's most likely responsible for all the stock offerings which are organized by his friend Michael Silverman at Katalyst Securities.
It makes me wonder what all the CEOs have actually been up to all this time if their replacement seems to make no difference to the company.
Dr. Tuchman seems to still be an active neurologist at his private practice.
It would be dumb to keep all those millions in some insured checking accounts with 0% interest when you can earn almost 4% on highly liquid money market funds which are the safest and most boring funds on the market. They're basically risk-free.
I read the email after waking up from a nap and almost had a heart attack lol.
Some more info on convertible preferred shares:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/05/052705.asp
If results are good it won't be much different from previous offerings since the company can just force the conversion and get rid of all the preferred shares by issuing common shares and warrants. They will also have to pay out accrued dividends, but that won't be a lot if they force the conversion within a few months.
If results are bad the preferred shareholders get additional benefits that weren't included in the previous offerings.
Everyone else just got shafted because they will now own 30% less of the pie if things go well, and if things go bad I don't think anyone will care about this because most of their investment will have been wiped out anyways.
The preferred shares are convertible to about 4 million common shares and warrants, and if the market price stays over $11.625 and the volume over 100k for 20 consecutive trading days the company can force the conversion.
As for the second question, yes. A higher offering price is better.
Yes, but you (and others) seemed to imply it was a necessary evil, when it may not be that necessary at all.
Either way, what's done is done and all we can do now is wait 3 or 4 more weeks hoping for the best.
It wasn't the PR anyone expected, but at least they confirmed once more that they're on track for a December readout.
You know that's not true. There's plenty of biotechs out there that can stay above water after failed trials without the unnecessary dilution that is going on here.
The price may be up for today but future shareholder value has just been reduced by 30% for no reason, and it's not the first time they have pulled this kind of crap.
You don't have to defend management decisions because of the science. Board members have nothing to do with the science and can be replaced by shareholders at every shareholder meeting if they don't do their job correctly, which is to maximize shareholder value.
He may have been wrong about the numbers but he was right about the chairman being involved in some shady business.
I have no idea how someone like Dr. Alkon managed to get involved with these hedge fund vultures, but it's not going to inspire confidence in investors when evaluating the company.
Silverman needs to go. Every company he touches eventually goes to zero.
Either way, investors need to find a replacement quickly before his hedge fund antics suck every bit of shareholder value out of this company.
Whoops lol. We're obviously referring to Joshua Silverman, yes.
I've been saying for a while now that Silverstein needs to be voted out of the board.
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/6460311-unemon1/4985776-behind-neurotrope-clear-and-overwhelming-links-to-fraudsters
Into the toilet it goes lol.
Management has once again proved how meaningless their words are and why this company deserves the low valuation it has.
50% of the options vest immediately and the other half vest after 6 months.
Exercise price is $6.07.
My guess is this is the result of the incentive plan they passed during the shareholder meeting last month. I doubt it has anything to do with results, although it is suspicious how they timed it right after a big price drop.
712,000 options issued by management today, which means we're at almost 13 million fully diluted shares now.