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Volume back down again today. Waiting for the days of consistent volume at a higher level, not these one off rise and falls.
Quiet remains the problem. Both with the Fed and the Company. If earnings are flat or middling, that's not good. Even if they're really good, there's not enough eyes on the stock for that to matter. If there's no safe banking there's no restructured debt. If there's no rescheduling there's no enthusiasm in the sector. So they may be quietly plugging along but none of that will move the stock. As we've seen, our ERs are largely immaterial to the stock price, except for momentary blips. So its tread water until the fed makes a move in my opinion, or does a better job at pretending to make a move again that stirs some interest.
Perhaps one of the MJ funds hopping into SHWZ a bit more forcefully?
Well, there's some volume finally...
I don't subscribe to Punchbowl, but this has a bit more of a write up on it.
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/dea-tells-congress-it-has-final-authority-on-marijuana-regardless-of-health-agencys-schedule-iii-recommendation/
Scheduling change is not assured. Logically it's a no brainer, but the no brainers running the show, including congressional leaders and even ex-DEA staff are arguing against that move. A more interesting article would be one on what the true motivations are for their position of being against.
The DEA reviewing is nice to know, but the review needs to end positively by aligning to the HHS recommendation at the least, but as the DEA strongly states, it's the DEA's call. What that will be no one knows, and all guesses are meaningless. I think MJ remains with little interest until that review is done, and hopefully, when it is done, it's not a kiss of death for the sector.
If today's volume is an indication, after year-end tax selling, there isn't much interest in SHWZ unless some meaningful news comes out. 2500 shares so far, none on the NEO.
Not at 53
Yep, coal again for the sector. Those polls are even grimmer than I suspected. Next year will be taken up with impeachment, trying to run interference on the various Trump legal implications his candidacy is creating - there's fallout whether he wins or loses those cases for America, and general politicking and fund raising for the 2024 election. Throw in the mideast, Ukraine, and it's highly unlikely a thought will turn to cannabis legislation, maybe any legislation, until after the election - just in time for the Christmas break and the regrouping of congress in 2025. So yeah, neither this nor next Christmas does it appear likely any news from the fed will be coming. Rumors, promises, yes. Action, no. I just hope they send out some rumors to clear the table higher than where we're sitting now sometime before 2025...
The sideways shuffle on low volume until the new year from here. GLTA, enjoy the holidays. Maybe we'll get a present on three king's day, if only there were any wise men in congress...
Lot of congestion going around this time of year. close at .61
not sure I'd read it that way. The point they were making was that SHWZ benefited little on the announcement originally, so has less downside on negative HHS news. If positive news were to come on scheduling who is to say SHWZ wouldn't fail to participate in any rally like it did in the past, or rally less aggressively? For it to do that requires both interest and volume which it historically lacks. I would argue that is one of the reasons SHWZ leadership should have been out stumping for the stock, at least occasionally, otherwise they are following everyone else's rally and trying to ride on the coat tails of the other stocks heading north, hoping for ancillary investment crumbs to fall their way.
Right. the pop to 1.00 was done on rescheduling enthusiasm. I don't expect a similar pop that high if such talk were to begin again, you can only do so many head fakes before stocks realize due to congress' continued inaction that the latest rumors may fade like before, so the pop doesn't go as high each successive time. If congress does something material and actually passes legislation, yes, we could see a dollar again from where we're sitting. Most of the investor dollars will go to the other stocks you note, and even the usual big named dogs of the industry first, the question would be how long it would take for investors to see a convincing argument in investing in SHWZ after that. Would it actually get on the radar - my sense is it will lag the other stocks for a while on any move north as it has in the past.
Sitting at these lows chart-wise we're primed for a move but I don't see in the short term before the holidays and perhaps into February even credible rumors of legislative action beginning again to set that move in motion like before. The question remains for me how far we slide in the interim with the expected inaction by congress. For that reason I don't think we're at the bottom yet. And if we do slide as I expect, another ten to 15 cents a share, the next pop may only get us back to around .75 if we're lucky. Again, I hope I'm proven wrong, but I don't expect to be. Good luck.
Of these two, I would prefer and expect a greater possibility in the first regarding interest rates, and highly doubt the second, safe passage etc but would love to be surprised.
"With the likelihood of interest rate declines in 2024, due to it being an election year, it may allow the debts to be extended and refinance6d at more favorable rates. Also, with the upcoming elections, both parties may want to finally do something to help decriminalize cannabis, and get the Safe Banking passed, and the tax code changed to mirror other businesses."
Nice current state write up on the company, and yet again, in comparison to other players in MJ, like you note, no love here, not as much interest, and decidedly less movement than the other stocks off the lows - we could actually continue to trend lower. SHWZ needs to address their lack of investor exposure at some point, since regardless of what the company does, no one is paying attention sufficiently to move the stock up.
Doc, I'd be interested in what would be a price target you'd be looking at to get out on any new purchases. Think it could hit .75 in the near future? Think this will hit a buck in the next six months? My sense is in the next 6 months, .75 may be tops unless feds do some steps on safe banking, and if not, risk is we're even lower than .50.
Someone with deep pockets and a significant lack of acumen. The debt is a barrier to adding shareholder value, and a barrier to buy-out to a point. For both reasons I'd like them to at least address it without just an unspoken hope that SAFE will magically appear and permit restructuring it. I want to see some sign that they are considering options. If it can't be restructured, they either need to greatly increase revenue to get the debt to equity ratio better, or begin reducing it. The current incremental moves are achieving neither at the moment, despite it's good to see them holding ground in the absolute crater of the sector..
as far as the stock is concerned, it's like yesterday never happened and the inexorable slide lower continues. I'd love to see some news matter to SHWZ, except to push it lower. The only thing that could put it on the radar is if someone offered to buy it - nothing else thus far has been helpful to the share price.
focus on maximizing current dispensaries over expansion is nice to see in the commentary, since it will a) prove the playbook is effective much more clearly, and b) make future acquisitions crisper if they have erp, customer expansion, more fully baked in via SoPs, rollout. However no mention at al on debt and future interest payments at all in the call.
revenue up, good. wholesale improvements, good. margins still okay in very tight markets. and all that got us back to 60 cents on relatively unremarkable to low volume. I hope they speak to debt on the CC and how they'll manage that without SAFE. Right now we're a stock that Dye originally wanted to increase liquidity for but with absolutely no one interested in buying, and no real push to increase that interest. And if we had more liquidity, we'd be trading down around 20 cents... This may be a CC defined more by what isn't addressed or stated than what will be. And if that happens, we'll drift lower again into the next ER.
If SHWZ were to get bought out, what do others feel would be an appropriate buyout price based on where things stand today? Not asking if it's likely or that they'd do it or insinuating any rumors it will happen - just a baseline feel for if a company were to propose a buy, what valuation do you think they'd offer?
I guess we know what the earnings report will look like next week based on where we're sitting today...
Good luck. Not quite ready to do that, I have been hoping for at least one more enthusiastic run so my losses would be less, but hanging on for now through the next ER. Soon ER will mean emergency room for these pot stocks as they attempt to be resuscitated...
I didn't subscribe but saw this out there re consolidation in NM and PLUG helping smaller pot companies survive:
https://www.bizjournals.com/albuquerque/news/2023/11/01/the-plug-cannabis-co-op.html
Maybe somewhere here is from NM and may already subscribe and could post.
There would need to be a compelling reason, besides averaging down. That won't come from the feds, there hasn't been any new message from SHWZ, as others have pointed out we're moving toward having to deal with debt. So if silence continues, as I expect it will, even if they announce new stores, etc, this goes below .50. Something major needs to happen, and now, even if we triple the price, we're only back to $1.50 after. More likely even on solid news we might lurch back to a buck at this point.
Will we hit .50 by ER time? Looking likely. I would not be grabbing "cheap" shares right now.
Dye received his shares for his service on the board.
http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20231006/ABBZP22D822232ZZ27252WZZN5A3Z2Y2ZL52/
Really wearing thin when the stock hovers not that high above the 52 week low and trading under 4k shares so far today.
I suppose the congress has to show it can do something while the continuing train wreck in the house continues, so there is that hope that they'd grasp at anything likely to be passed and ram it through to be able to say, "See, we can actually do our jobs now and then." But with impeachment, continuing budget cluster, and the power battle between Gaetz and McCarthy, I really don't see them managing even that.
I dropped a note to IR, the gist of which is asking if the company leadership may be interested in perhaps providing an update/guidance on where we're going, maybe attend an investor conference to get more than 6k in shares traded in a day, provide the investors a bone to convince us to stay invested, etc. If I get a reply I'll post it here.
I guess our next news will be mid-November for the third quarter results?
The temporary budget deal only gets them to December, so they need to continue coming up with a budget or we're right back in the same place, facing a shutdown. And that is increasingly likely since the next few weeks will be taken up with the GOPs in the house attempting an ousting of McCarthy - yet one more distraction to get to a budget. And if he's ousted, getting to a bipartisan agreement seems even less likely. And don't forget, there's Hunter Biden and impeaching Joe which is all more far important than legislation. Congress has trouble doing one thing at a time, doing two like passing a budget and safe banking seems unlikely now this year. The House GOP may sour on it, which is likely. Maybe these clowns will surprise us but I doubt it. instead, MJ stocks will sink again due to the ongoing lack of action in Congress creating the same despair of passage again, and we'll be talking about safe banking in January with no true sense of if it will be taken up again and when.
ok, hysterical, I really enjoyed that, including the old memorex video. Needed a laugh today, and it was a bit funnier than hearing Sh-waze spoken over and over again in the previous post, though that middling grade he gave Sh-waze seemed appropriate at the moment.
https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&sca_esv=567351978&rls=en&q=deja+vu+all+over+again&tbm=vid&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwikgdLMxLyBAxVZKlkFHasHCrgQ0pQJegQIDBAB&biw=1416&bih=708&dpr=2#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:8cd4f061,vid:EVptkVFW8zk,st:0
IPS, If they were doing both, I wouldn't complain. But so far, on the investor conference side, I'm seeing a lot of other companies advertising their upcoming presence at several, and I have yet to see SHWZ do the same. Yes, what good looks like matters as long as the message is trustworthy, backed by specifics. If they deliver on what they are advertising with this first one, yes, any push to make people aware of who SHWZ is and why it differs from other MSOs and is therefore worthy of investment dollars will help. Heck, at this point I guess I'd settle for them wearing a sandwich board with "Buy SHWZ" written on it and walking around outside a Starbucks. But is it also too much to expect that in this first Chronicle they would actually share some of the news that would cause excitement in the stock instead of just teasing that down the road they'll show where they are going, offer such things up? A little something something in the first one would have been nice, and not taking advantage of that from the start a bit disappointing. There's a reason investors are all hungry for news and information, some of it worrisome as Stevenrisk recently posted, and those clouds need dispelled. I see enough corporate rah rahs at my own work that are devoid of substance, value, and specifics - simply feel good, gobbledy-goop messaging of corporate buzzwords and platitudes. If that's what this becomes, and I pray it does not, that would deter me from holding this stock and probably prevent others from buying in. They've thrown down the gauntlet with this as a messaging vehicle. They best deliver solid messaging, whether that's in the form of advertising (which of course needs to be done delicately and obliquely), really building a brand image for the company that tempts people to trust and buy from them and as a company others want to be a part of, showing company strategic differentiators in gaining and holding market share, corporate stewardship and investor focus, etc. Otherwise it's just getting the name Schwazze out there to a small extent, which at this stage, yes, is something I suppose. But man, aim higher?
Thanks for sharing, i think. I guess affirming they are alive is the key take away, though his energy level leaves that a bit in doubt. I'd rather see them at investor conferences than curating a feel good message in their own "online newspaper" that will likely have few eyes on it. But I guess for now we take whatever info we can get, and hopefully the next chronicle may have some. In this one, i expected to see Ferris Buehler slipping out the back door while the monologue was being delivered.
and shwz volume so far super low (again) at 4k... Cue Pink Floyd's "is there anybody out there?"
https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=895c7158b13f2753JmltdHM9MTY5NTA4MTYwMCZpZ3VpZD0xM2JhYWEzZi1kNjYyLTY5YWItMjAzYi1iYTUxZDc1ZjY4ZDgmaW5zaWQ9NTUyNw&ptn=3&hsh=3&fclid=13baaa3f-d662-69ab-203b-ba51d75f68d8&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20vdmlkZW9zL3NlYXJjaD9xPWlzIHRoZXJlIGFueWJvZHkgb3V0IHRoZXJlJkZPUk09VkRSRQ&ntb=1
Wake me when the full senate passes safe banking... that would be significant.
Let's hope they don't take all 90 days... if it goes through, I'd rather us surge from above a dollar than below. If it doesn't get done, I'd prefer we fall from above a dollar than where we'd be in November if no other news is forthcoming.
So we've been here before. Justin Dye bought shares on the open market, the price then was around 1.70 and above. We all saw that as a sign of leadership confidence in the stock, an indication that was a good price to get in if the key insider was purchasing directly. And after that, the stock continued to slide. No larger influx of buyers, volume dried up, Dye stopped purchasing, no dog and pony shows to get the Schwazze name out there, no telling of the good story (which still is better than almost any MJ stock out there), no increase in day to day volume of the stock, in fact, it decreased.
Stock slides to around .65 and insider buying returns. At a new low, a new signal from company leaders that this now is a good time to buy. Again though, radio silence, the stock briefly enjoys the rally on rescheduling and these buys, then stalls. Radio silence except an update of the latest shareholder presentation for those who go looking for it (few in number) and those who do, seeing it could have been better prepared.
No sign yet on follow-through from the fed on schedule 3 (those wheels turn slowly if at all, which means the exuberance can end quickly in the face of what is perceived to be a delay or unwillingness to truly act by the Fed), and the silence from SHWZ continues. So based on a history of inaction by both the Fed in rescheduling/descheduling and Shwz in terms of marketing the stock and the company, we could slide back to .65 rather quickly in that vacuum, and further below, since the insider buying will dry or has dried up again, faith in that level being the bottom is unlikely, since we already saw it fall through the previous bottom where a leader jumped in with aggressive purchases and that didn't hold, and the confidence in legislative reform evaporates driving things lower again. That has been the pattern, one of those two things needs to change or "waiting on real volume" could be a long time off. We who hold "hope" against the prior patterns that they won't repeat again.
Not sure why flipping is relevant per my prior post. Even so, Doc was referring to the series of Form 4 filings where management is again buying shares directly again, such as this one by Garwood:
http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20230906/ADBZC62C8Z22QZZZ2HZ22ZZZ8R9BZ2Q2ZL5Q/
Usually a good sign when management is buying directly, right?
The fact that we're still having conversations about SHWZ being the "Red-headed step-child," lack of PRs on even material changes in the company (let alone frivolous ones), the company still flying under the radar with most investors, not participating as fully in rallies north but participating fully in the slide south - all that speaks to a major, continuing, and for me, unexplainable miss in the leadership team for SHWZ. And each day it becomes more problematic.
I see folks starting to dig in on the flipping vs holding approach - not sure why. I haven't yet sold a share of SHWZ, but right now wish I had, holding only a smaller core position, and then had been flipping for the last two years. This industry has become a flipper's paradise, up on hope when the fed feigns action, down when no action occurs, up again on the next feint. Not sure why we aren't all flipping at this stage. If the recent advice on moving to schedule 3 is really assured and now rather administratively simple, we should some evidence of activity very soon. If not, the market will speak again, assume complexity and inaction still rule the day, and all the gains will evaporate like before. To me, that is the safer bet rather than hoping for the miracle of action from the Fed.
I would take that scenario and the $4 share price... I just have no faith any longer in execution. I assume it will happen some time, but I viewed all this as largely a slam dunk four years ago...