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Back to the 52 wk low. What a snooze fest this Willow is. I had much higher expectations for '21 than this. See you all again in another quarter.
Dreams die here
Glad ol Trevor listened to me and added to his pile of commons. JK of course, but this is a very positive indicator and enough for me to do what I said I wouldn't do....add
Playing the long game here, but this stock has been in free fall mode since March. Quite pathetic price action through this summer.
Playing the long game here, but this stock has been in free fall mode since March. Quite pathetic price action through this summer.
Well I would agree that's a shitty way to answer what should be significant news and a confirmation of a major delivery milestone. Meh my arse.
Not going to lie, I really don't like that both July and Aug came and went and no word on the Cellular delivery. It was earlier communicated in June that the first batch would be delivered in July. We're almost 2 mo's past the timeline for delivery based on their own presser from June and nothing. Not only that the SP fell off a cliff during this idle period. This organization does not communicate very well to its shareholders and my two email inquiries this summer went totally ignored. Very disappointing.
At one point I owned a large qty of InMed of which over half has been sold leading up to their RS announcement last year. They've been a major letdown. I have a decent position here in CANSF and some CRON (Ginkgo play). Quite a few things concern me about AMRS, but they had one heII of a ride for shareholders between last fall and now.
Like you, I also recall that part of his commentary as well and thanks for the kind words. Like I said much earlier I was concerned over the Facchini departure some time ago, but this team seems to have the right pedigree to deliver on targets and they've done very well so far. I've been following the evolution of biosynthetically produced cannabinoids for over 4 yrs now. It's been a slow go so far, but exciting to see some of these pioneers finally getting close to making these disruptive technologies real.
I don't think so, but the future may change the supply chain. Since the Jazz acquisition it's been harder to find some of the legacy articles on GW. One in particular I used to share was how they invested hundreds of millions in their grow operation and were producing over 10 tons of dry flower out of this facility. They've put 20 yrs into this approach and have strict control measures in place for quality, extraction, etc which of course were necessary for ultimate FDA approval. Under Jazz I could see them slowly evolving, but that would likely be years down the pike.
Agree, still down trending
I'm all for the R&D, but show me the $$ Trevor. July is quickly coming to an end and I want details on the Cellular Delivery. Hoping this isn't shifting right.
It's Les Miserables out there
Nice wag at some napkin math. I am still struggling to wrap my head around the full demand signal at this time and how much of a biosynthesized manufacturer's products will have a buyer. It is unclear for example how much CBG for example, in mg or g, Cellular Goods would inject into a cosmetic product. How many products, what their demand signal will be and how many others (Demetrix, Amyris, Gingko, etc) will also have supplies likely available for commercial purchase by year end. I'd like to see more of these deals and more specifically the quantities being purchased in these supply agreements to better pinpoint a credible market cap.
Absolutely agree Janey
Miserable to watch recently especially when without much more dry powder to add more. Hoping to see a Cellular Goods delivery date and terms of the supply agreement within next couple of weeks.
A fairly disappointing retrace since the supply agreement news
Yes, appreciate the note. I'm familiar with Tuatara and landed on them some years back in relationship to Teewinot Life Sciences who was also in the biosynthetic cannabinoid space. Ironically Teewinot filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy last year however Tuatara still has them on their website as a "portfolio company". That is somewhat concerning in itself. I would think Tuatara would immediately distance themselves from a company they invested in that went belly up.
Great video. I've seen the presentation material in slide deck only, but didn't realize that Mr. Peters walked through this as part of a deeper dive .
Separate question for you. How much are you, or were you, concerned when the news of Dr. Facchini and Dr. Hagel departed almost immediately overnight back in Apr of last year? Truthfully I came onto Willow originally knowing the impressive resume of Peter Facchini and knowing his pioneering skills in developing their biosynthetic program. I was very concerned and stopped adding to my position after this news initially. Any thoughts on those major mgmt changes and why they both left so abruptly?
Didn't expect a meteoric rise on today's announcement, but surely I expected a much bigger pop than 5%. Interested to see how today's session plays out, but my assumption is that it may experience only modest growth until more detailed financials are released. Saying multi year supply is great and a great start, but what is the expected near term and longer term yield, what is the projected revenues, etc.
I would not disagree in that Cellular's near term plan may very well be one that includes exclusively Willow CBG. I checked some of the other Cellular named suppliers and no one else has dropped any news this morning. That may or not be telling in itself, but let's see how this plays out.
Are you saying that you are expecting Willow's name to be somehow directly injected into the marketing/product branding?
Purisys and potentially even Demetrix will likely also get a supply deal with Cellular so Willow will likely not be their exclusive supplier for this cannabinoid. Cellular however will be one of the many companies in the skin care, nutraceutical, wellness partners procuring CBG from Willow in '21.
Take notes of how it's done by companies that execute on schedule.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/willow-biosciences-and-cellular-goods-announce-multiyear-supply-agreement-for-cannabigerol-cbg-301309618.html
Yes, just saw PSY picked them up on their ETF w/about 4% of their total holdings which is about 100k shares. That brings Willow's total ETF exposure to 3 total which is encouraging. Started buying small chunks since she was trading in the .30's and I feel like we're at an inflexion point.
3rd ETF picked up Willow last week and there's been a flurry of options being granted by Directors throughout May. IMO this screams near term news imminent and adding to position now as this will easily bounce over previous ATH w/any PO announcement.
This forum gets about as much action as InMed's execution plans
I also have been critical of EA over these recent years and there may be truth as some have stated on many occasions that he's little more than Schneider's puppet. The broader market has shown to also have little confidence in their execution as the news released today, in other times or places would have been significant, barely moved the needle of this perennial dumpster fire.
Yes, the defensive clowns have all but mostly disappeared along with their investments. They are the only ones that have to live with their own stain of credibility, recorded forever in the archives of the forum.
Been so long I almost couldn't find my way back here. How's for a little recap since I've been on hiatus? InMed competitor in cannabinoid manufacturing Amyris has gone from low single digits to a high over $20 in less than a quarter. After completing batch runs Willow has been sending CBG samples all over the world and they're stock has about tripled in the same time period. They've stated to be producing CBG commercially in the next quarter.
InMed, our little thorn, with their flowery power points that go no where is currently trading at close to .08 pre-split levels. Incredible to see a company with an outstanding share count so low still manage to only keep going backwards on zero material news to release.
Maybe I'll stop back in a quarter when Willow is trading around $5.
Stay parched.
Been a while. Hoped that by the time I swung back through this forum InMed would at least be back closer to pre-split levels. What a festering wound this company has proven to be for not only retail investors, but institutional investors as well.
Roth is simply one of the underwriters in the IPO. They work to determine the initial price of the IPO, purchase from the issuer (this case IN) and then immediately sell as part of the IPO to the interested investors. In this case they'll make a quick buck on what is mostly admin work.
They've been playing their shareholders for years and many willingly take the bait. There's nothing to be proud of with this investment if you were along prior to the RS. Some joining the party late, IF they can commercialize, will likely be rewarded as they'll have opps to get jumps from $3-4 to a double or triple and most longs won't even be back at even with that kind of upward trajectory.
I as well would not be shocked to see Adams bail in '21. He's sold most of his commons and will let those hefty options climb, cash out, and punch out for good.
I'm confused Guitar. You've recently written InMed's leadership and maturation of IntegraSyn off yet now herald it as a formidable front runner. I personally have little confidence in InMed's execution on any program candidate. IMO a company like Willow exclusively focused on cannabinoid production, not one like InMed trying to balance priorities, offers a more targeted investment into cannabinoid production. They are also focused for now on CBG which is shaping up to be the next commercial blockbuster cannabinoid. One that will be marketed across various commercial products and sectors. Put a chunk into them after exiting a portion of InMed after the RS was announced and for now will keep adding. My hopes for InMed were mostly exhausted in '19 and it's only gotten worse for them and their shareholders.
Just to expand on the recent conversations that involved Willow, have you read this article? Do you really believe that Willow, a publicly traded company, is flat out lying about selling out of their first batch of CBG and that 17 more companies want to buy samples?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-04/race-for-artificial-cannabinoids-heats-up-cannabis-weekly?fbclid=IwAR2rtVFadyxGex707-TLFJUz9ZL7eTalFuPInp6PJnTCAbwcHDSidLKGTZY
Sub .10 levels pre-split with no end to the bleeding in sight. Even as a cynic I never thought it would be this devastating.
Well said Steve. Include me in that bucket of earlier believers that have soured over the past couple of yrs for all the reasons you've noted below. Just wait until they surprise everyone with another private placement.
I've been actually asking myself how low this can go if they raise at these levels and then are soon forced to split yet again. They may one day deliver but most here will never be rewarded for being patient as just getting back to break even will be almost impossible by that point.
Yes, clearly the honest brokers are always InMed and everyone else is simply lying. That is called an example of being too emotionally invested in a company. Now maybe Willow is exaggerating their claims. Maybe they will run into new issues when scaling commercially. Their credibility however would be shot if they're out publicly making baseless claims. They published that they're only weeks away from a mass sample send out to companies across various sectors like nutraceuticals, food and bev, etc. That alone makes me think they're likely getting close.
To answer the last part of your question no one knows exactly. What is known is that they've now filed multiple S-1 revisions with the SEC which will only add to the uplist delays. Whether they had incorrect or missing language in the initial filing is unknown, but to keep filing amendments means that they likely received fdbk from SEC referencing some issues with the filing which caused the now numerous amendments.
Yes, the large consolidation was required to get the SP in alignment with NASDAQ listing reqs. The issue is the SP has been down-trending since the RS was announced as every program (IntegraSyn, INM-755, etc) is delayed and further there is a chance that they may require another consolidation to remain compliant with the exchange. Here's the major issue. Cash is light so they're suspending certain non-essential R&D functions in the near-term. If the uplist and accompanying IPO is delayed they'll need to raise more cash (likely via PP) and the terms will be atrocious. Dilution at these levels will send the SP crashing even further and they'll have to deploy another consolidation to get the SP back to a compliant level for NASDAQ.
Bottom line the situation is ugly.
Clearly Steve. They've done just about everything right haven't they? Secured zero IP since InMed was formed, yet to commercialize a biosynthetic pathway, flip flopped pipeline candidates, delayed all pipeline candidates, performed a massive share consolidation, staring down the barrel at another dilutive cash raise at abysmal levels, etc etc.
But hey, they're working on breakthrough novel therapies so never question what they're doing. It's very secretive. Very under the radar stuff. One day, one day they may do something that actually benefits shareholders.