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It isn't even about that anymore. Growth is stale.
Apple paying 4.15% on savings account...paying .56% dividend.
Market just a bad place to put money until assets reprice.
Whoops.
Looks like they weren't. Shorts back on top.
Next guess?
The only 2 sectors up today are Consumer staples and energy.
That IS NOT money hiding in bloated tech.
IWM firmly breaking a month long uptrend with only 4% of a gain for a cushion.
SELL small caps.
Have you been watching bonds and gold?
They aren't hiding in stock.
Did you hear the price tag on the amount of paper losses in bonds banks are sitting on?
They won't be able to sell those until expiry...which means they aren't buying stock with that money any time soon.
So what money do they have left?
Don't even crack the lid on how many MBS's are actually under water considering the newbies are bringing double the interest.
As TSLA eviscerates growth funds.
Some much money actually moving(or paper profits), while daily options gamblers watch paint dry...and bleeding permiums.
Oh..they'll come around.
I also said I would be able to buy at 2019 prices again, and October of 22 was pretty damn close...but FED still way off.
Think we'll get another chance.
Admittedly I never thought the FED would stretch it so far, but here we are.
Had they reacted much earlier before inflation went bananas market would not be in the predicament it is in.
In case you haven't noticed market down almost 20% from it's highs and not done.
I never said it would crash. I said people were buying stock for obscene values. I said cost of living would go through the roof as a result.
2019 prices will be back. IWM already at 2018 prices, so depending on your diversification, some already there.
AAPL now offering 4.15% on cash deposits, and .56% of a dividend. Now banking cash as apple more profitable than holding their stock.
Market a broken thing without a reset in asset values.
You like "supports".
If IWM drops 10% to it's 10 month "support".
That's 30% on a leveraged inverse....no time decay.
Or do you think "the boys" are trying to steal all your small cap shares heading in to some form of recession?
Welp...here comes the 11 o'clock wave of day gamblers.
There is zero options momo and even less money in it than ever.
All SMA's looking horrible, which is people going under water. Far more powerful than "cleans"
Pretty sure I said to sell small caps end of last week beginning of this week...very soon.
Which was another way of playing an inverse with no time melt.
Solid advice.
$7 daily range movement is almost a given everyday.
It is not too late. Play an inverse and hold until RSI's hit the 20's on the index.
Sorry, but you already said you weren't playing today.
You go churned in to hamburg all week, then missed the real move.
MM's got you right where they want you.
Welp...All bets are placed. Window is closed.
Time for time to bleed em dry.
Once all the techni bros are washed out, then it will move based on money flow.
Until then just ihubbers duking it out with ihubbers.
It doesn't matter.
There won't be a significant move until most of the options money has been washed out.
Just how it works. Look at it just sit there like a bump on a log.
Not anywhere quick enough to beat that short term options time decay.
If it is longer than a daily option....it is still lower than yesterday and hasn't gone anywhere.
Question.
What do you think is happening right now with all this onesie twosie tick moves?
Time is unraveling on your options.
Options is not a battle against price...it's a race against time.
You aren't playing against "the boys".
The boys make their money on commissions and fees.
So if you hit it big, lots of others lost. It's the way odds making works.
You will never beat the house.
No it didn't.
All the moving after hours when options are closed.
From open to now almost no movement. No money to be had in options.
TSLA...one of the largest MCAPS on the planet could go bankrupt and the world wouldn't even notice.
We have others making cars and rockets...just none quite so leveraged.
It's called leverage bro.
And until it gets flushed nothing changing.
Flushing has happened plenty of times. The world never falls apart. People in leveraged positions get flushed. People with cash buy deflated assets...then we start over.
Don't fear what is good for everyone...but the over leveraged.
No one is saying it...but the world collectively begging for deflation bigly. So many non money making garbage out there that could disappear and no one would even know.
Shitcoin down over 50% from it's high and no one even blinked an eye. SBF lost bergillions...everyone else got up the next day and put their pants on before work.
99% of the world has under the FDIC amount in cash. Who cares about banks runs. Bring it on.
I hear there are a Million more jobs than people to fill them. We could take a Million millionaires, make them thousandaires and fill a million jobs. Economic net zero loss...bigly reduction in inflation.
Lots of paper Millionaires need to become thousandaires...or 5% inflation the new norm.
You can feel it in the air. All economists and politicians have completely stopped offering explanations on the source of inflation. I have one...Wallstreet.
Crypto been around for decade and no one uses for anything but fraud.
Failure of epic proportions.
Gold, Oil, Silver all gapping down.
This is not a drill.
All of em talking about what can't be done.
They are the meat for the grinder.
Citadel made a record amount of money off of them.
The computer world has already moved money before they see what the charts showed them has already happened.
And there is more volume and money moving off the tape they can't see.
Save your money. Don't day gamble on options...and sell small caps soon.
Spread your chart out for more than a day and you'll realize what everyone else knows. Russell is going to be a very bad place to have money.
That is decent advice. "Cleans" are drivel.
What I think is the Russell is about to death cross again, and it has been a bad investment for years.
You aren't even close. Just people bailing on what little gains they've managed to eek out in the past month or so.
VIX is in the 16's.
You couldn't be more off.
Good luck beating Skynet though.
Is that what they do?
Cuz I coulda sworn the FED's just gave welfare loans to banker clowns.
Notice team red has completely abandoned that argument?
The money pales in comparison to what is given in corporate welfare...and they know it.
The day they stepped in to bail out SVB is the day the market ceased to be anything but a FED fanboy club.
It no long moves of it's own freewill. The market is a welfare machine.
I mean look at everyone just beggin to get a .25% drop in interest rates, like a couple of homeless crackheads.
Ironic
Just a stubborn old codger who forgot econ 101.
Something's value/worth is what someone else is willing to pay for it.
Without lowering value...you aren't lowering cost. Lowering value is not going to happen if you run to the rescue of every overleveraged idiot.
2 years of watching this guy spit nonsense and be wrong.
"Soft landing" is a completely made up word void of mathematics.
The only reason the rate of inflation Y o Y is decreasing is the time frame it is getting compared to. When it was 9% it was getting compared to a timeline of 2%. Now it is 5% getting compared to a timeline of 9%. Prices aren't going down. They just stop going up as fast.
Who wants to buy assets in to stagflation?
It isn't real inflation.
Real inflation is driving by rising wages first...then the chase for goods.
This was the house Jerome built with his cheap credit for too long. This isn't a dollar problem. It is a leverage one.
Nothing will change until asset prices plummet, and leverage is flushed out. Right now J POW trying to adjust assets prices...while providing unneeded liquidity.
What a clown. Take the tit out of the market's mouth Jerome and let some of these bloated, non-money making shams go bankrupt.
Until then he's pulling money in the front window and moving it our the backdoor...all while scratching his head at stagnating inflation metrics.
Wazzup Double D.
Me...just scratching my azz waiting for something meaningful in the market to happen.
Precurser to what your charts haven't told you yet.
Stay tuned!
Banks dirty little secret.
Nothing is fixed. Every dollar loss in bonds they were holding still on the books. Without a massive rise in bonds, it is just money that is gone.
Need to move money from stocks in to bonds...to pump bonds.
Banks can't even afford to invest in stocks.
Gold ripping, and the VIX hitting 2 year lows.
Prognosis no bueno.
Except for the last 2 years.
Way way too late.
That was too late. SPY is priced to absolute market perfection, when in reality lots of stocks were down lots much before then.
Slight of hand, and nasty nasty breadth.
Look at the Russel. That tells you all you need to know about investment. thesis.
SPY just a fanboy club.
Banks need a massive run on bonds to recoup unrealized losses, that will just be a written down asset without it happening.
What happens when massive amounts of money is pushed in to bonds? What happens to leverage used on equities if you have to sell them to buy bonds to recoup bergillions of dollars in paper bond losses.
Quite the pickle for the ole banksters.
FED can't buy bonds anymore. Inflation would be a bonanza never to be recovered from.
Market a dead thing that is a ward of the state now.
I've noticed all your charts have rotated completely clockwise to a down slope.
Who coulda saw that comin?
Weird
Charts never told you it was coming...until after it came.
The magic of wallstreet is to pick your pocket while you try to follow the jack.