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A fair price for Siaf would be around $4. $1.5 for the Trw shares that will be distributed to us now. $1.5 for the Trw shares that will be held by Siaf. $1 for the rest of Siaf that will generate a minimum of 10 cents in dividend per year (yield 10%).
If Trw and Siaf starts do deliver as expected, the total value will off course be much than US$ 4 imo. Now is the time to get back to a full position.
The stock rallied after they allowed trading again. Then OTC dragged it down a bit (can't have significant price imperfections between the two markets). Anyway, we are on the move now and a PR wouldn't make it slow down at least.
Only 2548 shares for sale under 4,50 now.
Totally unnecessary post imo. You should know by now the reasons for why we have been trading at these levels. Now it's all about the future, which looks a bit brighter than the mess we have experienced the last 24 months.
RD don't we get a higher value than US$ 1.33 sice this amount doesn't include the profits from investee?
Interesting, thanks!
The PR states that the reportable value of shares being distributed Nov 14 is US$ 1.33 per each common share of SIAF. I believe the real value is higher since this is based on the assessed value on October 5, 2016. Tri-way has made profits and no distributions since then, so we should include profits from Tri-way to get the real book value?
The fair value will be released during the IPO process on the main list at Hong Kong stock exchange imo.
Thank you!
Red, if you got time. Could you please post some technical analysis? We should have a few interesting weeks ahead of us imo.
Has anyone got this confirmed by the company?
The total damage now is much less than last year even though this hurricane was the strongest for the last 30 years.
Exactly in line with Peters early assessment that I shared with you last week.
Handla, their are no shades of grey here. They either deliver the Trw-distribution and pay the semi annually cash dividends Or the fail and will suffer consequences accordingly.
The operations are real and the aqua assets are very effective. The reason why we are in this situation is not because they had some operational set backs. It's because of terrible financial management with no margin of safety.
Yes he has threatened me before about leaving the board. I told him that it's too late to avoid consequences if he choose to leave the board. He needs to make sure they deliver regardless if he remains a board member or not.
Believe me, I have plenty of stuff on them from the past, each enough to sue them. Nisse knows it, I know it.
Time to execute. Failure on the Trw distribution or cash dividends won't be tolerated.
nisse@jordanfonden.se = Nils-Erik Sandberg
ritchey@usa.com = Dan
solomon.lee1@vip.163.com = Solomon
May I suggest that we all start to put some serious pressure at the westerners aka Dan and Nisse (and Erik Ahl). I have made very clear to Nisse that there will be legal consequences if they somehow fails on the Trw distribution or cash dividends. I made very clear that it won't help him to blame Solomon since he has been a board member for such a long time.
Well, this time it was Dan who confirmed the info in the 10Q. Since he's a US citizen, and Siaf is a US listed company, he would risk jail if this turns out the be lies.
Yes, think you did the right thing. Good portfolio management.
I hear you. On the other hand, if Peters initial assessment is correct, that they don't expect any significant curtailments of operations, and many of the small prawn farmers were hit, the hurricane could be a win for Trw. Too soon to tell.
Then you could expect the stock dividend any day now. Always tricky with timing.
He told my no one was hurt. So unfortunately not. Lol
Just got a reply from Peter regarding the hurricane. The company is currently assessing the damage. There seem to be some damage at the Enping farms and Aqua farm 3. Nothing material at Aqua farm 4. Peter assumed that there won't be any significant curtailment of operations.
He will probably post some information on the web later this week when he has a better assessment.
You missed to whole point of the discussion. Zeros "experts" states that the HU fields are only 1 field with the size equal to a football field. It's like saying that we have three suns. Absolutely nonsense.
You don't need to speak mandarin (if that what you mean by "Chinese") in order see that those fields are enormous. End of discussion.
What are "your" locals smoking? Those fields are enormous.
Regarding the fruit trees:
He never said that the fruit trees will generate cash flow in Q4. What he did was to give an example of how they have changed the way they move in order to stop wasting operational cash flow. In the past, the new plans for the HU would have decreased total cash flow due to capex. Now they let someone else pay the capex. All else equal, this new attitude will increase Siafs cash position.
I think you made your point.
Obviously I was wrong back then. Not sure I'll be wrong twice.
Strange. I need to re-listen. What is your conclusion?
If you by concrete mean a material event, then they would need release it as soon as it materials.
Regarding the Trw distribution, who care if we would need to wait another week, moreover the value of Trw has increased a bit which offset part of the dilution. The important thing is that there will be no more material delays.
Regarding this the cash dividend, I feel very comfortable that it will be paid out in Q4. The yield is extreme which make me draw to conclusion that the market don't believe in it. Since I DO believe the cash distributions will be paid out in accordance with the policy, it's like picking low hanging fruits.
Regarding the large Trw financing package of USD 100 m, I was sure it was completely dead. Apparently it is not dead, so this is good news even due you always need to take their talk about financing with a large grain of salt.
Could you please elaborate on your expectations in front of the call and how these expectations were not met?
Personally, I consider the call quite good.
Why don't you invite Mark to your "team". The new all star team :) lol
I would say that the outcome of the study is a success. Their goal was to produce 18-gram shrimps by 90 days from PL10. They managed 16-gram shrimps 77 days after nursery.
My conclusion is that they could manage higher density next round by increasing the use of refuge and manage the bacteria level.
However, hate to get this kind of update in front of the call.
This is pure speculation from me side based on the following:
We still have a few million shares left before hitting the A/S roof. Both Garret and ECAB would like the SP to increase significantly from here. It would be extremely stupid to even consider to increase A/S before they release a trustworthy plan regarding the Trw distribution and a share count policy.
I don't believe they will increase the A/S. It's correct that ECAB is entitled shares. However, we'll get back some of the shares issued to lenders.
No way they will raise A/S.
Sorry wasn't updated last time I checked. Its obvious that the dumping is pre-arranged with buyers/lenders.
Anyway, I'm not worried about the dividends. There is no way in hell that Dan and Nisse could get away with not paying the dividends. They would end up in jail if they fail on the dividends.
Still no change
Yes, the company stated that regarding the Trw distribution, not the cash distribution.
Regarding the cash distribution, they reposted the distribution plan from Q1 which states that the first semiannual cash dividend of 5 cents will be paid out end of December this year at the latest. Or have I missed something?
Where did you get that from? I expect the record dates on the Trw distribution before the conf.call (=huge driver)
Regarding the payout of the first semiannual cash dividend of 5 cents, I just heard that they'll pay it out before the end of December?
Snow.... you got no proof that these shares will hit the market. For me, it makes very much sense that we're going up from here, given the short term pipeline.