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You would think we would be at EPS by at least $.01 based on likely $5M more revenue if we at least match Adv tech rev. Not sure if there may have been greater or lesser cap ex. I know there was no late fees for anything and cheaper revenue through generation. They are expanding and ramping up in Canada, and may be in CT in prep for MCFC needs.
Last 11 Q Adv Tech Rev average is $4.75M with low of $3.7M. 2nd low was $4.1M, then $4.3. Safe estimate would be $4.3M. $15M is conservative estimate for Generation, hoping we hit $16M. Not sure where any other revenue will come from so I'm thinking Very conservatively, $19.3M Revenue which would be a disappointment to say the least. But, I've been wrong far more often than right, and occasionally very wrong. That said we can hope Advanced Tech matches the high of $7.5M. So high end would be $23.5M without product or S&L revenue. Let's hope analysts are smart enough to figure similarly or lower. The good news is, we set the "Low watermark" and more revenue is definitely coming moving forward as S&L begins Q3 & grows in Q4! We actually had losses of $.8M & $1.1M In the S&L category based on losses with Toyota due to extensions before operational.
Cash 1/31/24 $297.5M vs $249.9M 1/31/23!
Restricted cash $5.96M vs $5.16M
Inventory $102.86M vs $84.45M
Other assets $13.15M vs $12.88M
Total assets declined $923.2M vs $955.5M
Based on $103.76M short term investments in 2023 vs 2024. Need to maintain available, unrestricted cash for balance sheet so can't have $ tied up in investment is my opinion. Burn has wide range of $20-$45M previously which should be improving with Toyota, Derby 1+2 operational and Groton now at full $7.4MW. SK would be HUUUGE right now and secure big cash flow until the company reaches profitability! C'mon $23M and loss of $.04 with cash burn under $25M. That would be a home run!!
13 business days to earnings if the 6th is correct. I'm going to look at 8 quarters averages for Advanced tech, and analysts estimates. I'm hoping there's some sort of revenue from sales and Adv tech is over $4M. We definitely beat the "low watermark, but I'm not confident by much. Although if the are even getting to 2023 revenue for the year, they need to average well over $30M per Q for the remainder of the year.
PS I believe there's actually a possibility they may be confident enough to make a statement regarding the non-compliance with NASDAQ guidelines, something to the effect of we expect to regain compliance after our Q2 earnings and conference call. That would make a powerful statement and would likely get back over a dollar before the conference call
Really hoping I'm correct about earnings, I've been convinced before about certain revenue and ended up being wrong on more than one occasion. The only specific revenue I'm banking on this time is the generation revenue. On the rest we can go by averages. Per last business update during Q1 call there are no module replacements scheduled until Q3. Which means the full generation portfolio should be there, and Q3 should be similar although there is one small replacement which means a little bit of downtime on the module being replaced but that revenue is made up in service! Q2+Q3 generation should average over $15M. Then we will get a basis after Q3 of approximately how much we can expect from generation moving forward. Q4 we have more service scheduled, hence more downtime but a higher amount of money from service. So although generation may slip at times quarter to quarter, We will pick up more than what we lost from that in service. You would have to look back about eight quarters to get a real average on Advanced technologies. Sales will be based on a variety of things I'm not sure of how they account for. I don't know if the complete sale is counted after a project goes fully operational, or an increments. Might be a good question for the conference call. I believe over the next eight quarters, Advanced technologies will have a slight uptick in average revenue based on the new contract with ExxonMobil, which also has a variable. $10M minimum per year. So we can est at least $2.5M per Q average from Exxon alone. But I am relatively confident there's other revenue in the advanced technologies category, possibly another question for the conference call.
https://s21.q4cdn.com/256256048/files/doc_financials/2024/q1/FCEL-Q1-2024-Financial-Results-Presentation-FINAL-1.pdf
Service schedule is in the link above. And anyone reading all of that information has to be optimistic. How could anyone possibly read that business update, and have a vastly improved Q2, and not be extremely optimistic. So obviously we are hinging on Q2 validating the low watermark comment in Q1.
One good thing, Volume seems to be back to reality. Hopefully we have a new average moving forward over the next couple of months of 15 to 20 million shares per day. Although I believe there's going to be at least a week of heavy volume when the share price goes up.
Unfortunately there's going to be social media about non-compliance with the NASDAQ, I'm pretty sure it's already beyond the 30 days. We will likely see something by early next week. Hopefully there is some encouraging language suggesting confidence we expect to regain compliance well before any deadlines.
Perspective! Everybody has an opinion, And it's usually based on whatever information they have including what others say. Some dig in to find facts some not so much. The rocket to $29.44 was unjustified. The significant decline after that was justified. Yes you heard me honestly and accurately. However, The decline to under $2 was completely unjustified. Which obviously suggests under $1 is ridiculous because it is. Clearly all non-profitable stocks without a clear path to profit have been punished significantly for an extended period of time. Primarily related to the overall economy inflation and interest rates. This company has vastly improved in many ways over the past 2 years, and maintain a stable financial profile (main reason to not have money invested in non-profitable companies in economies like this) throughout. They have already strengthened their image with people such as myself and obviously with institutions. The ongoing volatility is strictly related to manipulation. Every single individual and institution doing any diligence and having at least average intellect understands this company has a very bright future, In people invested long-term will profit significantly. There are people with a lot of money just playing games right now trying to make as much as they can in the interim because they can. In my humble opinion, anyone able to purchase shares under $1 is basically receiving a Golden ticket. Willy Wonka!! Because anyone with an average purchase price under $5 is going to make a very nice profit within the next couple of years at the latest. That does not mean people with a $10 average won't make money, I'm talking about 1,000% profit when I say a nice prophet. If anyone investing ever knew they can make even 25% profit a year they would be ecstatic. Well, at this point I'm 100% convinced I will make well over 500% profit average per year for the next 3 years. As long as there's not complete market destruction. One of if not the main reason the share price is where it is is because of COVID. That was the primary impact on inflation and the economy. At least modestly impaired supply chain and construction and significantly impacted inflation and interest rates. Within the next 3 years, This stock will have already hit $100. So by May, 2027 I along with any other long-term investors taking advantage of these to pressed prices will be able to comfortably retire if we so choose. And I only say within the next 3 years because no one in their right mind could have predicted the share price would be depressed and manipulated for 3 years. This could happen within months with the right news. Hence TICK TOCK!!!
For those investors doing their diligence information like this is fabulous.
https://t.co/Lk3Aazdp1q
FCEL beat earnings estimates 3 Qs in a row now. Analyst estimates consensus is 8 cent loss and they had a five-cent loss in Q1 on their so-called low watermark revenue quarter. Not quite sure how they're not going to at least match that $0.05 loss, with construction done on several projects previously impacting earnings and added recurring revenue from generation previously not included in earnings. There are also no fees associated with project delays or not running at full capacity. Either we get analyst revisions or we should be by at least a couple pennies. They also have a consensus June 13th report date. My estimate is June 6th. We should know no later Then June 3rd if I am correct, But more likely by Friday May 31st. And I wouldn't be surprised if they beat the $.05 lost from Q1. $.04 vs $.08 estimate and four quarters in a row of beating estimates should make it powerful statement
Bit of a role reversal here. We usually go up on heavy volume well over 90% of the time. And we typically trickle down on lower volume over 90% of the time. Although 15 million shares exceeds the typical average when there's nothing crazy going, it's well below the heavy volume we've had the past 2 weeks. Be nice to see it close over 86 cents and even nicer to see it close over 90 cents. I think the shorts are desperately trying to keep this under a dollar for 30 days, So they can get a required notice from the SEC of non-compliance. And fuelcell Will then reply with a statement of their belief that The share price will regain compliance within the allotted time frame. That warning carries negative connotations They should be meaningless given the financials and the progress of the company combined with the current global push to incentivize and commercialize their diverse portfolio of patented technologies. Especially working with some very high profile projects and customers such as the Department of Energy the Department of defense the US Navy Exxon Mobil and Toyota to name a few.
In my opinion more Pavlov still heavy volume trying to run the price up first thing in the morning then beat it down shortly after the open. They want people to sell shares and take little profits or whatever little gain they get back after the open so they can gobble up your shares as the price declines. Then by mid-June they make over 100% profit
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Don't forget this post from the 13th ironically fuel cell did stay over 84 cents at the close yesterday. We need 95 cents.
I'm pretty sure the drag from the b shares on cash was because the price was below a certain level, And when it was below a certain level the company had to pay additional monies to the b shareholders for the shortage. They receive a dividend quarterly. So they would receive that dividend I think plus extra They bought out the class A shares back around 2019 or in 2020, via Few's guidance As they were costing a ton of money. That was Enbridge. They did a whole lot of stuff between 2019 and 2021 to straighten out the finances. The final steps to really straighten out the earnings have already been taken. Now all we need is cash flow to begin from new sales. Those final steps included completing projects that were delayed repeatedly causing fees and shortage of revenue. Toyota and Groton namely. With Toyota and Groton operational (fully In the case of Groton), those very pricey fees have gone away, construction costs are gone, and significant revenue will show starting Q2. Impact on earnings should be substantial, based on the elimination of fees which were hurting significantly, and 40 to 45% positive margins on generation revenue. Those margins which the Bears wrongfully always suggest are negative, Although they have been historically, it was related to the projects not being operational. I'm hoping there's a big light bulb that goes on for the analysts after Q2 earnings are released and they conclude the call.
I've seen several people recently and in the past post about buyout or takeover, mostly by XOM, But recently as of today by Toyota. I'm not opposed to that because I know we would make at least a thousand percent profit instantly, But I think it very highly unlike them. The market cap right now is a speck in the ocean, But within the next two years it's going to be an island. One good reason to increase shares, is to avoid a hostile takeover. The board would never approve of a sale of the company for less than $10B, And that would actually be cheap, If in fact ExxonMobil and fuelcell believe they have a "game-changing" technology, which they both have quoted I'm more than one occasion, You don't sell something like that you believe has immeasurable potential for what would likely be a limited short-term gain. Let's keep in mind, every bear on the boards has stated FCE give away their technology to ExxonMobil which was absolutely factually incorrect. Now, FCE has the right to develop and install the jointly developed technology with whomever wherever they want. Drax is currently working with TERC In order to pursue commercializing our technology with biomass. Toyota absolutely loves our tri Generation platform. They are also fond of our CHP application according to the interview with Mark yamauchi and Paul fukamoto. Expect updates from South Korea this fiscal year at the latest. Keep an eye out for updates in Canada on several fronts and with Navajo Nation. We should have an update with MHB at some point this fiscal year also. 2024 Will be the low watermark in more ways than one referencing a quote from Mr Few about revenue. It will become crystal clear FCEL was vastly undervalued and is poised for long-term exponential growth. 2025 will be the year they prove profitability is certain. In 2026 will be the year everyone knows who Who Fuelcell Energy is.
Seems as those are shorts they actually be playing a slightly different game. They may have started rumors about another meme stock run and bid up a bunch of stocks yesterday. I see GameStop and AMC are both down over 30% today. We are holding on to games likely related to the DOE money for plug. I saw some suggesting we might be in line for money ourselves and I believe that to be true. One analyst actually asked or commented about being in line for a DOE loan last call. Few seem to casually acknowledge. Low interest rate debt right now would not be a bad thing to guarantee cash if needed and not have to dilute shares especially at these prices. I also believe they sold a minimal amount of shares but we will find out in less than 4 weeks. I'm hoping and have some confidence they are smart enough and patient enough to not sell shares at this price unless it was going to have a very high reward in the immediate future. Now I'm simply hoping plug has a run based on the DOE money and we tag along to close over a dollar in the near future if not this week. It can all change at any minute. Note although volume is still heavy, it's much much lighter than the 120 million traded yesterday and will lightly end well below the recent average of 57 M.
Volume tripled since 7:57 and stock went up 7%. Plug volume doubled and stock went from +2.3% to +5%
I just didn't see $29 so quickly. I actually had a sell order in on 20% of my long holdings at $30 and it hit $29.44 then dropped like a rock. So I immediately sold 2,000, far from 20%, shares at $27
Morning manipulation! Plug up 2.3% on 1.5M shares FCEL flat to -$.01 penny on 290 thousand shares. Volume picks up at 8, 9 and 9:30.
Yeah I don't know about that. Short squeeze and meme stock run I still don't think we wait to $50, Although it could I didn't see $29 coming in 2021. I do think we could easily get a run to $10. To put it in perspective $7.70 would be a thousand percent
Yeah I don't know about that. Short squeeze and meme stock run I still don't think we wait to $50, Although it could I didn't see $29 coming in 2021. I do think we could easily get a run to $10. To put it in perspective $7.70 would be a thousand percent
Absolutely! Most of their projects are very high profile. Toyota, US Navy (Groton), Exxonmobil (PORTHOS) and even older ones for Pfizer and Campbell's. The repeated theme is "Scalable"! So initial project (PORTHOS) is initially relatively small for FCEL although Megawatts, it has potential to turn into something much bigger
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No one has seen a contract for Nuclear yet. No clue.
So I could be analyzing this wrong as I've done on numerous occasions, but factually, FCEL closed up 23.95% on 129M shares and Plug up 19.03% on 201M shares. Plug had the good news! I don't ever recall 129M shares traded, but I knew if it was going down 2-8% on 55+M it would go up a greater % on heavier volume. Let's just hope we go green 4 days in a row. Plug is up after hours. Good news right about now would be awesome. Seems as though people saw the value in Fuelcell after plug peaked on the day. Close over $1 tomorrow would almost guarantee a run!
Yep as a beginner I sold Apple at $29 with a purchase price of $17, lo and behold 2 years later, lol. Sure I made over a 50% profit but I could have been at $300. I know what I own and I know it's simply a matter of time hence my repeated reference of Tick tock. This company isn't just proving their technology it's already proven and protected with hundreds of patents. The world is just now accepting the need, And with the diverse portfolio of advanced technologies they have, there by far the best option of the fuel cell companies. They've got the best of all worlds. Tell me what other fuel saw company has recurring revenue from being a power company, or can do trigeneration, or has carbon capture, or does different applications for different types of fuel cells. Fuelcell energy has all of it. They also have a historically proven genius CEO. Who knew darn well the mess he was getting into in 2019 but took it on anyway. Any morons bashing Mr Few are ignorant at best. I say at best because being ignorant is better than being a moron, By definition anyway. I'm ignorant about plenty of things, like I don't know exactly how shorting works, But I do know that sooner or later no one is going to be able to suppress this stock. And it certainly appears to be sooner rather than later. Q2 and Q3 earnings can solidify that with any further progress politically towards promoting fuel cells.
I call it Pavlov conditioning. People get lulled into thinking every time this goes up 10 to 20%, it's time to cash and wait until it drops. Traders, swingers, shorts, whatever all decide to take a short position or sell then plan on buying back in when it drops. Only you and I know, along with others doing their diligence, there has been and will be a time when it just continues running. Well they may make 5 10 or even 20% They will not buy back in after cashing out. And they will ultimately miss a 10,000% run over a 2-year period. 10,000% is an easy call when this stock is under $1? From $0.70 that's only $70. By the time the carbon capture tech project in Porthos is up and running, This will easily be over $70. They can take their 10% average which they may have done 5 to 10 times for measly 200% profit while I take my 10,000% profit. Oops, excuse me it would only be about a 5,000% profit since my average share price wasn't $0.70. based on my opinion and many others doing diligence, anything under a dollar is still a steal
$1.50-$2 by Friday would not be surprising at all. Should have never been anywhere near $1. We aren't even at cash value for the company right now. For the two or three times multiple on it and that would be more realistic. $3-$5,!! Possible by Mid June with a few more good days and a good Q2!
Well, Although I did post just yesterday I believe, 85 cents would raise a red flag for the shorts, 95 cents would definitely bring about panic, And over $1 Should definitely create a short squeeze or something to that fact. In all of it could happen at any moment including this week. Anyone can look back over the last day or two and find whatever it was I wrote. I wasn't honestly expecting to go over a dollar in one day but I'll take it. If we close over $1 that does a few things. First and foremost it eliminates the clock ticking for a warning from the SEC about being in non-compliance with listing requirements. Secondly, it breaks through a couple of technical resistance levels. Last and almost as important as all of them, it catches a whole lot of attention from all kinds of money. If this is followed by a good quarterly report and any significant news for the fuel cell industry, We can easily be on a 1000% run. Again as I just mentioned recently.
We may get a very quick short squeeze based on the history with the meme stocks. I'm sure the shorts don't want that pain again. GameStop is currently up 60% In AMC almost 100%. Plug is up 29% and fuel cell 22%. Yesterday fuel cell was a laggard big time. Today Bloom and Ballard are lagging. Plug is flying on a conditional loan guarantee from the DOE. Really! A conditional loan guarantee so the stock was beat down based on The question of their ability to continue as a company. Because that's all alone guarantee will do is give them the ability to continue and I don't know what the conditions are. Oh well I'll take it.
That's a first. In all my years I've never seen fuel cell be even or down (basically) and all the other fuel cell stocks be up substantially. Never! I've seen one up substantially or maybe even two, But not all three with fuel cell in the red or flat. Shorts can't like that. If the industry starts taking off, There's no way they're going to suppress fuelcell! Especially when people are looking for news and all they see is good news. Especially if they be earnings first week in June. Seeing as how everything I've seen about the other three recently is questionable at best. Correct me if I'm wrong, articles that I've seen state the others either missed on earnings or revenue or both.
Can't maintain 50 plus million shares a day much longer without the share price going up. Certainly seems like we're breaking 50 million today since we're over 34 million by 11:35. In my opinion, If you think this decline was crazy wait till you see the ascent. We went up over 1400% in less than 3 weeks. Until we went below $1, I didn't think that would happen again. Given the insanity of averaging over 54 million shares a day and declining to less than 70 cents, I definitely believe it's possible, And not only possible but likely. After all 1,000% from 70 cents would still be under $8. Based on if any shares were sold and if so how many, cash value of the company is still probably between $1.40 and $2. No multiple at all. So 3 to 4 X is very rational while going on a run And still no worries near double digits.
That's a lot of money bumped up in one year in just North America. Those who think hydrogen is magically going to go away anytime soon Our completely delusional. And just think, money is still being held back waiting for policies to be finalized.
https://www.worldhydrogennorthamerica.com/event/b9129970-729c-486c-8fe0-dc1ff07f5be9
We have a very positive history with New Mexico and the Governor. Part of that history resulted in business with the Navajo Nation!
https://apnews.com/article/new-mexico-seeks-hydrogen-fuel-investments-14ce91107e326a3adbc32c63cb98a50b
I would love to explain it if I only knew for a fact. What I can tell you it's down for the same reason it's been down for over the past week. If it Was anything significant That would justify such a drop, We would have been notified via a required SEC filing. Since we have not been notified I have to assume it's short manipulation. Think about it with the momentum building for our technologies, As undervalued as the stock was at $1, And all the information on the message boards suggesting there's a very high likelihood of a run to double digits in the next one to two years (at the very latest mighty I add) when the institutions just love to save 50 cents share on a few million shares. 3 million shares premarket is certainly not typical an obviously involves some big trades.
If I recall correctly it's about 1:30 of the land required the same amount of energy. And we are just now starting to realize the effects of what we need to do when the solar panels are no longer operational. It's really a no-brainer given the fact that solar and wind are not always available and take up much more space. Just so happens many of the big investors obviously are just catching on to that it's the most recent institutional buying
I repeatedly told people we would gain over 50% by year end 2020, from June to October. we gained far greater. we will gain 200%+ before end of fiscal year from here. $2.25 is an easy prediction, realistically with favorable policy decisions, rate cuts and 2 decent quarters June & September, we could easily surpass $3, or 300% before end of fiscal year (10/31)
We are thrilled to be exhibiting at BIOGAS AMERICAS! Meet the team at booth #701 to discuss how our cutting-edge solutions can turn your biogas into efficient, clean, and continuous electricity with reduced operating expenses and greenhouse gas emissions.
— FuelCell Energy (@FuelCell_Energy) May 9, 2024
- Highly efficient… pic.twitter.com/YdeHCo7tx7
Yes, we might get $16M, I'm guessing, most efficient quarter
Unfortunately the recurring revenue is probably going to cap out for a while around 15 to 16 million per quarter. Sales and service and license revenue should kick in though. South Korea will not be doing power purchase agreements rather it will be cash for the projects. Power purchase agreements build our assets and give us recurring revenue with a higher margin. And we own the asset. We're essentially an electric company also. I don't think we have another power purchase agreement lined up at the moment. Although that new one in California might be. But I'm pretty sure that won't be operational this year.