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Carbon capture funding has been rolling for a while and seems like it's picking up steam.
https://links-2.govdelivery.com/CL0/https:%2F%2Fcontent.govdelivery.com%2Faccounts%2FUSDOEOFE%2Fbulletins%2F3afb446/1/010101916aff2dea-06289d72-c887-4e03-bed6-4517402001f1-000000/meF3CYeMxPjqGF4ZFraERppbQTvPrE5aViRb2qFfCxQ=366
Volume is right about where I expect it. And plug seems like it may be leading the way with over 50% more volume. Perfectly happy with staying over 49 cents today, Then staying over 50 cents tomorrow. Excited about the opportunity to buy more shares even if it's just a little bit in this range. I can do that as early as Thursday.
FCEL Is the only one of the four fuel cell companies avoiding green this morning. They all have similar patterns but the rest are all in the green. Currently looks like that will change at some point during the day. A little above typical volume without news or manipulation involved. We are holding well above the Friday support level. Every time I have money below $1 I'm buying. Even if they have 550 million shares, There's no way the market cap on this should not be over $1B! So my opinion supports at least a 100% gain even from $0.90. As previously mentioned, I expect impressive earnings in 6/7 of the coming quarters. Q3 unfortunately but fortunately at the same time is likely to be the worst. 5 beats in a row according to Yahoo finance. Anyone truly believe They can have seven out of eight quarters and the share price doesn't pop substantially????? Q2 25 is D-Day for bears. I say well over $2 by then at the latest.
Everyone knows I'm not fluent or nearly as optimistic about Plug as FCEL. However, this suggests to me, PLUG DOE finding will follow shortly!
https://www.h2-view.com/story/celadyne-secures-doe-funding-for-fuel-cell-expansion/2113763.article/?
Oh, alright. I said I'd gladly accept 3% average gains per day up to earnings, but I guess I'm okay with 7%. I really wanted to get into September around $.50 so I could load a few thousand shares for cheap. I guess I'll settle for the 2,000 at $.49 and 1,000 at $.44. Although I wanted to offset the 1,000 at $.60 and 1,300 at $.64 and 1,300 at $.74. I could easily buy 4,000 early September if it were still $.50. But, I'll be just as happy with closing over $1 for 10 days in September. If we are over $.96 the day after the earnings call, we will definitely regain compliance with NASDAQ minimum bid requirements before October. And in 2027, anything under $1 this year will clearly be a blessing.
Reality!! It seems that the manipulative drop to below cash value seems to have subsided and ascent gas begun. How high, how fast?? Thesis based on volume bottoming out with the share price, then volume picking up while the SP rises, and breaking over $.50. Fact, average volume was consistently 10-15M for a long time. Occasionally it dipped below 10M or over 15M. Jumping to 50+M was ridiculous. If you recall, I was hoping for 20+M on the rise, and volume yesterday and today are exactly what I wanted. Now it seems a steady dose of 20-25M shares with single digit gains the majority of days moving forward would be ideal. I'll gladly take 3% average per day up to earnings. Then 6th best in a row (according to Yahoo finance).
Most attractive options for CCUS post combustion!!
Chapter 7, TICK TOCK!!
https://ieaghg-publications.s3.eu-north-1.amazonaws.com/Technical+Reports/CCP+Results+-+Carbon+Dioxide+Capture+for+Storage+in+Deep+Geologic+Formations.pdf
$1.50 price target
https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fuelcell-energy-a-balanced-view-on-innovation-and-market-challenges-1033695255&ct=ga&cd=CAEYASoTMTAxNzY3MzMyNDYzODM3NDczNTIaM2Y2YzEyOGYyMzM0YTgyODpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AOvVaw1RN06RHYOY3AvZF0z6IDtj
https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fuelcell-energy-show-industry-sustainably-120000689.html&ct=ga&cd=CAEYACoTMTAxNzY3MzMyNDYzODM3NDczNTIaM2Y2YzEyOGYyMzM0YTgyODpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AOvVaw0jqzxMTBWds4qKhxpGEcfC
Different authors same news
https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.bakersfield.com/ap/news/fuelcell-energy-to-show-industry-how-to-sustainably-create-co2-at-world-brewing-congress/article_e5e11b0e-0e4a-507d-bd9f-fce9a2df756d.html&ct=ga&cd=CAEYAioTMTAxNzY3MzMyNDYzODM3NDczNTIaM2Y2YzEyOGYyMzM0YTgyODpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AOvVaw3Izt4OAB8vCs6KBdVuZjtY
$1.50 price target
https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fuelcell-energy-a-balanced-view-on-innovation-and-market-challenges-1033695255&ct=ga&cd=CAEYASoTMTAxNzY3MzMyNDYzODM3NDczNTIaM2Y2YzEyOGYyMzM0YTgyODpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AOvVaw1RN06RHYOY3AvZF0z6IDtj
https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fuelcell-energy-show-industry-sustainably-120000689.html&ct=ga&cd=CAEYACoTMTAxNzY3MzMyNDYzODM3NDczNTIaM2Y2YzEyOGYyMzM0YTgyODpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AOvVaw0jqzxMTBWds4qKhxpGEcfC
Different authors same news
https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.bakersfield.com/ap/news/fuelcell-energy-to-show-industry-how-to-sustainably-create-co2-at-world-brewing-congress/article_e5e11b0e-0e4a-507d-bd9f-fce9a2df756d.html&ct=ga&cd=CAEYAioTMTAxNzY3MzMyNDYzODM3NDczNTIaM2Y2YzEyOGYyMzM0YTgyODpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AOvVaw3Izt4OAB8vCs6KBdVuZjtY
Video is a little old but very thorough, which is more important than any opinion comments. Note, he is a long term investor moving forward, although this can do well at any moment.
Opinion!! Based on fact! Facts, volume (17M) is well below recent average (41M), however, also well above typical average (10-15M). Some comments about ATM being over (after lower volume yesterday which was significantly lower than today) and time to rise now. In my opinion, the volume had little if anything to do with ATM. Why? They only have 500M for ATM, and we're basically averaging 50+M per day for a month, until this week. So even if 1/2 was ATM, they would have exceeded 100M in less than a week. At 25% 150M shares in 2 weeks. You get where I'm going. If they sold any ATM, I'm guessing it was for a few million dollars or 10 million at most, So maybe 20 million shares. Again started this whole statement with opinion!
Today, and remainder of the week seem to be a short term defining moment. Ironically, I am actually okay with staying below $.50 for a few weeks, but don't believe we will and I'm okay with that also. I did buy thousands of shares under $.50 and thousands more under $1. But I'm certain I can invest a significant amount more with September deposit. Also Ironically, I believe if it doesn't move over $.50 by end of August, it may be very difficult to regain compliance with NASDAQ minimum bid price requirements before 6 months deadline. Hence why I'm okay with moving north before I can buy more. Although RS does not lessen value, it does carry negative connotations. Since the market is increasingly moving based on speculation and sentiment or majority opinion if traders more so than investors, there is definitely a higher likelihood share price declines with RS announcement and possibly even after announcement. However, Where's it going to go????? The market cap is likely the reason we have support right now. Can't drop too far below cash value, that's not only ridiculous but impossible unless there is some sort of realistic evidence of potential bankruptcy. And that "AIN'T happening. Too many people aware of the company and the share price at this point. 4-5 years ago, sure, you could convince some, but not today. There is a REAL demand for our technologies and world wide policy support for such. So we wait and see, but if we close green today and tomorrow we have likely found the bottom. Then the question is how quickly and how high do we bounce?? TICK TOCK!
Read, yahoo finance post! Facts, not opinions!!
yahoo finance link, must read!!! Facts, not opinion, reputable sources!!
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cheap-beyond-belief-fuelcell-energy-101500032.html
Hydrogen hopefuls, listen up! FuelCell Energy (NASDAQ:FCEL), the Connecticut-headquartered hydrogen-production company, is absurdly underappreciated on Wall St...
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Top Mutual Fund Holders
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Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund 14,164,601 Mar 30, 2024 2.85% 6,409,481
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iShares Russell 2000 ETF 11,141,508 Jun 29, 2024 2.24% 5,041,532
Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund 6,674,640 Mar 30, 2024 1.34% 3,020,274
Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index Fund 6,524,449 Mar 30, 2024 1.31% 2,952,313
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Global X Fds-Global X Hydrogen ETF 2,636,343
Time to separate the boys from the men. So for me that means looking at management to see who's making the right moves. Few and crew put the brakes on a while ago, Hence Not proceeding with the build of the 400 megawatt manufacturing facility in the United States. They cut CapEx proactively But still proceeded with expanding the lease in Canada to be able to increase manufacturing of the electrolyzers beyond the current 40 megawatt capacity. PLUG has been pushing forward all along, And if they receive the blessing from DOE of a low interest loan may end up in the best position if demand increases. Ballard is discovering they may need to put the brakes on also. Bloom has been aggressively marketing for a long time with their sales force apparently doing a pretty good job. However, Bloom is running far from flawless. They've had discrepancies with several different issues put into question with customers and the SEC. Questions regarding their quarterly reports and the efficiency of their products. And if I recall correctly they're also losing tons of money on a regular basis, Even though they may have reported a positive quarter. I firmly believe everything will come to light over the next four quarters and fuelcell energy Will rise to the top. They may not end up with the highest market cap over the next four quarters but I do believe they will have the largest percentage gain in market cap. Time will tell but I believe we find out a lot, And I mean a whole lot by December, And then again by June. If all goes relatively smoothly, with no major setbacks for the company the industry or the market, I believe June of 2025 is going to be HUUUGE! Profitable huge with discussion regarding future profitability. Just need 1 more big development before then. Like $160M+ in New sales. The added more than $200M to backlog this year already. $160+ more would be over $350M or 3X most recent annual revenue from all revenue streams.
Sounds about right. That would be around about the compliance date for the NASDAQ. FCEL Well absolutely not be delisted. Keep in mind bears or pessimists or shorts Will constantly focus on reverse split or delisting. Dealers thing has as much of a chance as bankruptcy and they're both 0%. Unless something dramatic happens over the next 12 months they will remain 0%. As far as reverse split goes, That has no bearing on the valuation of your stock or the company. It is a psychological influence on many and there certainly may be major reactions to a split or reverse split. But ultimately the market cap is the main determining factor. Historically, stock splits have often resulted in the share price going up. In reverse splits have resulted primarily in the share price going down. That is not always the case though. It certainly sucks to think you have 50,000 shares of something to find out you only have $5,000. And it's certainly a lot easier to go from 45 cents to $4.50 Then it is to go from $4.50 to $45. Again in most cases. Looking at market cap, We hit approximately a $5 billion dollar market cap which is actually probably about Fair value in a stable economy with no inflation concerns and lower interest rates. Especially given the major developments within the company over the past couple years. When it went to $29 before that was unrealistic. And I knew that, But I thought since it went to $29 there was no way it would ever go back down to a dollar, That makes less sense than going to 29 in the first place. The company has maintain in excess of 300 million cash. Assets far outweigh Debt, And none of that includes any valuation for their patents. The IP alone will end up being worth billions for this company. And I can understand not putting a billion dollar valuation on it now, But zero is nonsensical. Especially since most of those patterns are for technologies already in commercially use. The 160 million dollar contract with South Korea move the needle briefly, But should have maintained a support level much higher than where we are at. There's more coming from South Korea. Just as I repeatedly said we were getting a lot of business from South Korea before the settlement was even won. Then when the settlement was won I reiterated it repeatedly. Then they hired an In country executive, And I expressed my enthusiasm and increase confidence regarding their expected growth in South Korea. Let me announced the contract for $160 million. They will get at least that much more over the next couple of years in South Korea, But we should get a sizable follow-up contract from the remaining installed units by end of year 24. At the very latest it'll come in the first part of 2025. We are going to need to increase production and we should hear an announcement about that If not during the Q3 call then during the Q4 call. At the current run rate we are expected to complete all shipments to South Korea by Q1 of 2026. In my opinion, One more follow-up order requiring more than 20 megawatts would indicate a need to increase production. Can't very well have a customer expected to wait over 2 years for us to be able to manufacture their equipment. I'm anxious and very confident to see what the developments are between now and the end of the fiscal year. I expect big things. Fiscal year ends October 31st, which is somewhere around the time of the compliance date. I expect they're working persistently to get several things done before then. Hoping some favorable policy issues Go our way, We get a rate cut, and investors decide it's time to let this thing run. This is coiled big time and you can easily double or triple in a week on any significant news. However we can speculate until the cows come home. My time frames and price estimates have been far from reality to say the least. But my opinion of the company, their products and their imminent success, along with long-term investors massive rewards will come to fruition at some point in time. I don't want to reverse split because I don't want the roller coaster likely attached to it. I also don't want to have to hit $100 to me the same profit I would at $10 without the split. I don't believe the conspiracy theories about the company wanting a reverse split, But I do believe it doesn't really matter to them one way or the other because they know the valuation of the company will be there. The most important things We can hope for our continued execution with signed contracts, In favorable policy decisions that will support continue usage of fuel cells. As long as we get that we have nothing to worry about. I have no reason to believe we won't get both.
Bought another 1,070 shares today at $.44.4! Wow, I'm almost speechless!
Thank goodness BE has been outperforming the rest of the field and has a Price Target revision up $1. Plug had 2 revised down $1 from $3.50 and $3 to $2.50 & $2. Didn't see 1 for FCEL, But I probably wouldn't want to either. Needs to hold at some point. You think much sooner rather than later. Unless they've sold a boatload of shares No one is aware of, the market cap remains lower than their cash on hand. Unless the markets assuming cash burn has increased. Downward revisions on Cap-X would suggest otherwise. But anyone paying close tension knows the end was only looking a few things not everything.
At least a couple very good links in here. Read about MCFC!!! Superior in many ways, so why is no one else building them? Not like SOFC or electrolyzers. Well, actually there are 1-2 more companies. But, FCEL has all the patents.
https://alliancefornavajobroadband.org/
https://www.bignavajoenergy.com/
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/brown-venture-group-invests-in-big-navajo-energy-301912773.html&ved=2ahUKEwjZ06CSzeuHAxXsEFkFHaDYPL4QFnoECCUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1V30_b69e8SQcRXWzKhjEs
Today's action seems to answer a couple questions. BE is zooming based on Analysts. Plug down over 5% and Fuelcell down over 2%. BLDP down over 3%, so Fuel cell companies are being treated more independently, but FCE is still more closely linked to Plug for now.
We will definitely be reminded of backlog and contracts we have during the Q3 call and early September. However, it would be nice to get updates on contracts in process that have not been finalized, ie:
Big Navajo Energy and Navajo Nation
CRIN
Remaining installed needing service in S. Korea.
Hydrogen Hubs (Supposed to be by Autumn)
Any number of others that may be near finalizing.
Whole different world coming to a theater near you, hopefully by mid September, but certainly starting by end of year.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/fuelcell-energy-carbon-capture-project-gets-6-8m-in-funding-68968831&ved=2ahUKEwi1xd6o7uaHAxXnD1kFHXyJHmAQFnoECCoQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1oM4wUOmoCGKNdlJ9cG-MU
Status of CRIN project??
https://www.cleanresourceinnovation.com/newsroom/crin-identifies-carbon-conversion-project-for-funding-through-low-emission
Science Direct
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261922000393&ved=2ahUKEwig2s2G8uaHAxVDMlkFHUtNBhYQFnoECBgQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2vwcwSGt2Z4YXYYD9bt_lW
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://ouci.dntb.gov.ua/en/works/7Px2oxG7/&ved=2ahUKEwig2s2G8uaHAxVDMlkFHUtNBhYQFnoECDEQAQ&usg=AOvVaw20908fIOB_lrGWeYdfgd8M
FCEL presenting Aug 18-20
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/fuelcell-energy_worldbrewingcongress-activity-7227328901117612032-Pltw?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
Exxonmobil 3 hours ago!!!!!
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/exxonmobileurope_ccs-activity-7227327850079555584-y14p?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
Canada, Heidelberg???
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/international-ccs-knowledge-centre_opinion-top-5-questions-on-carbon-capture-activity-7227312605197918208-mqfs?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
Heidelberg & FCE, any relation??
https://www.hydrogen-expo.com/industry-news/edf-energy-created-deal-fuelcell-energy-use-electrolyser-decarbonise-asphalt-production
Everything seems to be a head scratcher.
1) first and foremost the company's market cap should not be less than cash value of the company.
2) secondly, Plug missed top and bottom line and they missed pretty bad But suggested 2024 is in line with expectations. So Andy said something again about expectations in people believed him?? Stock only down 3%? I guess that's good sign.
3) positive updates literally daily regarding hydrogen and carbon capture and yet it seems to have no impact. Most recently, WTM posted a relatively positive political stance deporting the IRA from the Republicans???
And somebody had the gall to question my comments about significant manipulation continuing. RAOTFLMFAO
Definitely relevant and +
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174882070
https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://investorplace.com/2024/08/the-3-best-hydrogen-stocks-to-buy-in-august-2024/&ct=ga&cd=CAEYACoTNjU1OTE3NjkxMzE0NDkzMzIwNzIaM2Y2YzEyOGYyMzM0YTgyODpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AOvVaw2BDHuQ6TPPM_49nI3sUCpT
Let's hope Plug beats $187M and $.29 loss tomorrow
https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/plug-power-plug-report-earnings-070433560.html&ct=ga&cd=CAEYAyoTNjU1OTE3NjkxMzE0NDkzMzIwNzIaM2Y2YzEyOGYyMzM0YTgyODpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AOvVaw11joFel4IP0Dv89rZDCn_E
Let's hope that news and sentiment continues. And it becomes common knowledge that most of if not all of the tax incentives for energy in the IRA will stay put. It's my understanding even big oil has a decent amount committed due to the IRA incentives. So unless they come up with something else to satisfy somebody, whether it's the green energy companies or big oil, in place of whatever they are planning to repeal, it very likely won't be. That supports my thought process over the past few months. The vast majority of the world is full steam ahead on hydrogen and carbon capture. Including the US at the moment. If US removes itself from that vast majority, it still leaves the vast majority.
Removing or reducing the US commitment would certainly affect the total financial investment near term and impact stocks of those companies that would benefit. But it by no means would stop the hydrogen and carbon capture revolution. I really don't think the US wants to be third or fourth in that process. Exxon will still proceed elsewhere like Porthos. Our actual business will not be affected tremendously although the stock price will certainly linger. Ultimately validating the long-term investment and the theory of averaging down. At some point those buying at these prices will be rewarded massively. There's no way this company is not going to have a multi-billion dollar market cap by the time profitability is in sight. That doesn't mean they need to be profitable. Look at any company in history throughout their progress. From startup to pre-profit to profit. The share price went up substantially on every single one prior to reaching profitability. And I'm not talking about an incremental increase. TICK TOCK!!!
NO SURPRISE here, ALL these institutions ADDED shares of FCEL. NONE SOLD
https://www.defenseworld.net/2024/08/07/tidal-investments-llc-raises-stock-position-in-fuelcell-energy-inc-nasdaqfcel.html
So The market's all performed extremely well today, Although there was a major sell off in the latter part of the day. FCEL basically followed Sue being about flat for the majority of the day but closing down 0.2%. looks like it's trying to hold 49 cents or get back over 50 cents. Again nothing to brag about. Keep in mind without knowing what shares were sold, We don't know exactly what the market cap is. I have to believe some shares were sold ATM during Q3. This means the market cap is less than cash on hand at the end of Q2. That's completely insane unless the market is pricing in bankruptcy. Now I've been wrong about a lot of things. But I've been spot on with a few that I was extremely confident about. I have the utmost confidence, bankruptcy completely out of the cards. Simply between cash on hand and revenue through already signed contracts more than enough cash through Q2 2026 for operations and still not be close to having to issue a going concern. Even Henrique isn't stupid enough to start throwing around the BK threat like he was in 2019 when he said it was imminent. That situation explained above is if nothing goes our way or gets any better. Bankruptcy is still not an option. That said, $250-$300M market cap remains ridiculous! That also implies every single MOU signed is meaningless and will (not may) lead to $0! And, No future business with Toyota, nothing besides $10M per year from Exxonmobil, and definitely no commercialization plan for the carbon capture. There is $0 value implied for the 300+ patents! $0 additional revenue expected from South Korea even though they hired an in Country executive and have 50+ MW of installed units still needing service or replacement modules. The Nuclear ventures they have with NETL and DOE will result in $0 and we will not move forward with the Gulf or California Hub. We will get nothing further from Big Navajo Energy or the Navajo Nation. The massive hydrogen revolution appearing to be just kicking in world wide is going to reverse interest very quickly and carbon capture will have a similar reversal. Is that what you believe? RAOTFLMFAO!!!
I don't know you and if you don't believe me it's no skin off my back. The only way I know to post something like that would be to take a picture and anytime I've done that it doesn't work out well. I'm not tech savvy enough to figure out how to post a picture without people being able to access my other photos. If you don't believe me don't believe me. Other people know me.
So we were up on the biggest point decline I ever recall seeing in the market and now we are up on one of the biggest point gainers I've ever seen in the market. Not that I'm complaining, But it is on well below average volume relative to the recent volume average. Ballard and Bloom in the green also a couple minutes ago. Plug unfortunately still lagging. Again I would love to see the industry have a small run. I'm just hoping with low volume we're not going to see the shorts and bears jump in from waiting on the sidelines for bit. Improved 45V and a rate cut might be just with the doctor ordered, top with a nice little contract would be a sweet ending.
Somewhat encouraging that it's at least teetering in green, In flirting with 50 cents. However, flirting with 50 cents is rather sad. I was really hoping all fuel cell stocks would make at least a small run but unfortunately plug and bloom are down. Industry wide would be much stronger than one stock making a little movement. Even if it was industry-wide because of one stock. Ballard's doing okay and they have earnings coming up I believe in the 12th.
Today's action validates market cap is undervalued. I don't know if I've ever seen the market get slaughtered this bad, particularly after already declining the past couple sessions. Yet fuel cell is up over 5%. Plug is up about 2 and 1/2% Ballard and Bloom are both down around 5%. I did purchase 2000 shares today. And if I get another commission this week I will purchase more.
Schwab sucks! This is at least the third time since switching over from TD Ameritrade they've had technical issues with logging in. Previously you could go to the Schwab website and login. Today I can't even do that. I'm ready to pick up at least 2,000 shares if it stays under $0.50 through tomorrow
$$$ flowing, like I said
https://www.energy.gov/fecm/solicitations-and-business-opportunities