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Ontscrewedme,
If you go by CYDY projections we have a range of $2.1 to $6 HIV Combo CONSERVATIVE range. If you want to make a "back of a napkin" calculation:
We get half of it from Vyera, we pay expenses internal of cytodyn (and maybe Vyera), research, salaries, royalties etc.
Let's say we really keep half of what we receive. So,
So revenue is $525M to $1.5B. If we use a multiplier of 4 for valuation (some use 3 and others use higher numbers such as 5 or 6). This is the difficult number to ascertain, apart, of course, from patients treated.
We have then: MC= $2.1B to $6B which translates to SP of $3 to $8.57 using the maximum authorized count share of 700 Million.
I have a much more detailed model (however don't have some inputs completely determined yet). In any case, it all depends on how many treatments we enlist. FYI, my model yields a SP range of $2.54 to $8.2.
Please bear in mind this is ONLY for Combinational therapy only.
Monotherapy and off-label usage is another ball game altogether.
And Oncology is another world …
Biotech4life,
I had to lisen to his interview several times before I could extract some new information. We sometimes know most of it and, in lack of extraordinary news tend to "tune out".
This has happened to me before, so I perfectly understand your first impression. Not to worry, pat yourself on the shoulder for getting it after all and make the best decision regarding your investment.
I wish you the best of luck.
Grip,
Are you saying you are being manipulated ??. Please stop reading !!!
I am not, because I do my own DD. And much appreciate other points of view (North or South).
It helps me to arrive to the truth.
BTW, Ohm knows what he is talking about, if it is North, be it … this happens to be the direction I am going.
Amatuer,
Sjacobs,
Absolutely. That was one of the questions I posed to NP in today's conference: Once the financial situation improves which conditions will be "prioritized" ??
We have a lot on our plate (I good problem to have).
In my perspective the potential problems with basket trial are mainly two:
1) Follow up: Things can get out of control with both, participation and follow up once treatment is started. The posible useful data that can be gathered is easily "tainted" if we are not extremely careful.
2) Dosage: So assume we use 700mg for BC and somebody comes and want to treat Pancreatic cancer. What is the appropriated dosage ?? Let's assume we go with 700mg and the drug does not work as expected , or there is an unexpected parallel result and is concluded that perhaps 700 mg is too much for Pancreatic condition of this patient.
NP is indeed trying to help. And, also Lero seems to be a Wonder-Drug, however, there must be some care taken with each patient. I am sure this is exactly what CYDY intends to do, however, it costs some good money to do it right.
The occupancy test will help a lot if implemented as the dosage issue will be better determined, or at least, there will be an educated guidance as of where to start. And if things go out of the median, we will know how to react and what happened. Simultaneously data will be gathered for the respective pivotal trials.
We have a long-exciting road ahead. And, without exaggerating, if Lero works we will be part of medical history.
Very soon we will hopefully have more confirming results.
Right on ..
Prepare few boxes of Maximum Absorbency in small/medium (26-34 inch waist), size large (35-43 inch waist) and size extra-large (44-64 inch waist).
Also, some Fit-Flex and Guards. Don't forget some for women as well.
Courtesy of CYDYs "FDA fans club".
Biotech4life,
I learned a lot from the conference, as always. I have a large investment in CYDY and any morsel of information is important to me.
Did you know before this interview that:
1) P2 for GvHD was modified and "we expect injecting one or two patients very soon". Well, I didn't know that.
2) mTNBC patients 5,6 and 7 will be injected before end of next week ?? Well, I didn't know that.
3) Data for patients 3 & 4 will be coming out any time soon !!. He is calling every day to inquire for data. I though he was going to wait for the 3 weeks for both. Well I didn't know that.
4) The first NBTS will ve signed very soon (maybe next week). Well, I didn't know that
5) If funds are available, CYDY will give more priority to Oncology over Monotherapy. Well, I didn't know that.
Saltz,
Good post !!!.
For a civilized debate
oMandarin,
Apologies. I though you where of the opinion that a R/S would be a good thing.
My experience has been VERY negative with these as almost always turn out to be a SP depreciation with no benefits.
I now see that you where using it as an example.
GLTU
Blane,
Agree but the starts don't have to align . My model yields a price of North of $7 dollars with a conservative number of HIV patients (easily reachable after we get Mono going).
If we up list and you throw in off-label usage and PrPEP we will be double digits already.
Please notice I have not mentioned any Oncology indication. If this works out … well I will not dare give you my numbers as I will be abused by those who live by "ignorance is bliss".
NP has said several times: no R/S.
And he is absolutely right. The moment I sniff one I will be reducing substantially my exposure to CYDY (might come back after the SP suffers the normal course of action, that is, lowering to the value BEFORE the R/S).
We will easily get to $2 organically and pass this value no problem.
Suvorov,
Intelectual honestly is an ingredient of success. You have it.
We all err. The difficult part is to know when, learn and keep on.
These levels will be thing of the past soon. There is potential to much more than 1000% gain still.
So, just get on in your brokerage and go long. The difference between $0.4 and $1.0 will be irrelevant when all is said and done.
Good luck to you as well (hopefully long CYDY).
Agreed,
We need to keep our feet on the ground.
With this I mean that zero CTC for the first protocol patient might be an outlier.
As of late we have gotten so used to such earth-shaking news that we expect zero counts in the other patients and nothing less
This would be great but is very difficult to achieve. We should focus on CTCs reductions and count trends vs time.
With the first patient with stable zero counts after 14 weeks Lero already showed a "commercial" therapeutic improvement. Namely, the metastasis was stopped for this amount of time prolonging the life of the patient.
If the other patients show substancial reductions with stable & low counts (<5/7.5mL) afterwards, chances are we will be given BTD no questions asked, and we will be on our way to a Pivotal trial soon (if we are not swallowed before, that is).
I am keeping my fingers crossed for the first 15 or 21 days evaluations of patients #3 and #4 wishing them (an us) he best of luck.
Holy cow!!!
Is this Leronlimab ??? Or another try with other drug ???
Amatuer,
The Doctor important prediction was in regards of the stock price. She said that it was going to be around $1 by year end. And there it was.
But, maybe her most important predictions are related to the science. She has been dead on all the time regarding Leronlimab therapeutic benefits (her specialty).
So, in both fronts she has been correct and accurate.
We cannot say that about you, can we?
What is your real objective ?? Are you long ?? Short ??? Want to make money but not too much ?? Or enjoy losing it slowly ?? Or just enjoy being a contrarian with no skin in the game ???
Amatuer,
If you where ever long and the CEO of a company says:” I think the SP is too high”, or: “I think we are a fair valuation at the current price”.
What would you immediately do ??
By the way, I have never heard any doing that.
Get the point???
Amatuer,
If Lero can reduce consistently CTCs to less than 5 for few Oncology indications with no SAE’s Humira will be soon left in the dust, so to speak.
Let me know if You need me to “draw you a picture” of the
potential market.
This will be CYDY soon but for much more money.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sorrento-surges-near-1-billion-152934800.html
Strong price behavior so far
We went through $0.9 … Next step is $1 testing (much stronger resistance) and hopefully will be the support for the next leg.
GLTYA
A very strong TA indicator would be a close above $0.9 which is a strong resistance at this stage.
We will then, go and conquer $1 with the aid of the two conferences next week.
imho
Ohm,
Even-though I don't coincide completely with your numbers (I am a bit more optimist as I believe that commercialization deals of HIV ex-USA and/or NASH idem will bring a large revenue sooner than later possibly reducing, or avoiding altogether any dilutions ) as far as cash flow goes your post shows the result of careful and conscious DD.
By the contrary, some nay-sayers just keep on repeating half-baked half-truths without offering any facts into the conversation.
My conclusion: they did not do any DD, committed some money in the wrong side, and have an agenda. It must be hard be short CYDY and more when the reasons to be so are weak to say the least.
Fortuno,
Right you are. Those selling do it at their own detriment.
I am holding by shares "under lock"
Yup,
More so when there are no SAE's to worry about !!!
Amatuer,
I posted some informaton some time back (don't have the reference). Below some odd notes I had from before (copied and pasted from articles).
So, what is the potential for this market ??
A systematic literature search was performed in PubMed as per the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines from 1975 to 2016. Studies assessing the prevalence of off-label use of anticancer drugs were included. Data synthesis: Of the 199 eligible papers retrieved, 23 studies were included in this systematic literature review. Off-label drug use in inpatients ranged from 18% to 41%. Among adult patients with cancer, 13%-71% received a minimum of one off-label chemotherapy. The main reasons for off-label drug use were 'drug unapproved for specific tumour' and 'modified drug applications'. Among adults, metastatic cancers and palliative care patients received the most off-label drugs. The off-label drug use unsupported by standard treatment guidelines or drug compendia was in the range of 7%-31%. Conclusion: Off-label drug use in cancer therapy is commonly practiced but outcomes could vary significantly.
All this, only for oncology. The HIV/AIDS community is also known to use extensively off-label drugs: “A 2008 study found that 8 out of 10 cancer doctors surveyed had prescribed drugs off-label. Off-label drug use is also well-documented and very common in certain other settings, such as in pediatrics and HIV/AIDS care.”
So, we are talking here of a potentially huge market. The main point here is that it will spread rapidly as soon as: the FDA approves Lero for one indication and Lero is understood for the medical community at large to be a SAFE drug with myriad of indications in both, cancer and HIV.
Plavac,
I am with you in this one.
Off-label use is one of the most forgotten venues and, given the nature of Lero, widespread applications and LACK OF SAE's I can foresee a huge amount of off-label usage.
The BOD better start thinking how is his going to be monetized as this can easily get out of control and CYDY (and us) will not get it's due profit.
Imho this can be as big as the main indication(s) if not more.
Make it 4 .
Sent a message to his website.
You are not assuming he knows how to count are you?
Don't be too harsh on him. Every circus needs it buffoon.
Will miss him over the weekend .
Here some info on Market size for BC
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/breast-cancer-therapeutics-market-2019-growth-research-report-by-2025---gmi-report-2019-08-19