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Gross Sales absolutely do not fall to the bottom line for mining companies. Not for any company where there is a variable cost component to producing revenue. As there clearly is for any mining company. Fortunately for Ivanhoe and its superior grades, the variable cost should be less that for other miners.
And Trump seems oblivious to a number of truths. A healthy nation pays more taxes, consumes more goods and services, boosts GDP, costs less per capita in health care costs, results in increased investment, and on.
Trump is making the great USA into an island. Just ask anyone who doesn't live in America. Too bad. And too bad for Ivanhoe.
The ongoing march of global electrification:
https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-china-production/
Just another day in the DRC.
Notice that Chinese investments in the DRC seem immune from rebel violence? How come? China has an incredibly long history in the DRC, and has poured a lot of investment into the DRC. I am firmly of the view that if matters got sufficiently out of hand, PRC military would be invited in and slaughter every last rebel. But the rebels aren't that stupid.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/China–Democratic_Republic_of_the_Congo_relations
The concern is not so much the murder rate, rather the political instability in and caused by the leadership of the country, resulting in, among other matters of concern, politically motivated murders and deaths.
The DRC discount is likely one of the largest of any country on the planet.
Good information, a relevant post, even though it should be expected that Ivanhoe is all,over current technology and best practices. Also nice to know IR is responsive to meaningful shareholder enquiries.
A far better post than the self-serving posts of feel good videos, ridiculous price fluctuation speculation made without any justification, absurd and wholly irrelevant comparisons to movies and movie stars, pretty much any mention of Trump, and more.
Once in full production, Ivanhoe is going to be the wrecking ball of copper mining!!!
Oh, and beware the cowardly, dangerous path of censorship. Me, I like to know how everyone thinks.
Lololololol! Guess the nail was hit on its head. Ivanhoe isn't the reason, too bad.
When setting expectations, one under-promises and over-delivers. Then you beat your chest and howl.
Unexpectedly to me, RF is now over-promising and under-delivering, at lest in terms of promised deliverables. I only hope this affliction does not extend to results.
Still long, still far too overweight, and well in-the-money, but scratching my head.
As a former insider, I can write with some certainty that the only person who knows why an insider is selling is the insider. Buys are a different story.
Selling has many variables. Buying, particularly on the open market, means only one thing.
Exercising options is also affected by some variables.
To me, bottom line with IVN, "Understand The Assets" .
The reality of mining in the DRC. It seems like RF has anticipated the expectations of locals, let's hope he has:
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2017/05/28/french-citizen-3-congolese-hostages-released-in-congo.html
Still very long and far too overweight.
I honestly don't think Ebola is an issue, as contained as it is. Authorities are actually thinking of using the outbreak as a test case for vaccines.
The political unrest is a real wild card though. As foolish as disrupting mining in the country would be , it still could happen. My comfort comes from the fact that China is heavily invested and no one in their right mind wants to fk with China. I'd like to see an armed UN force in the country comprised entirely of Chinese nationals until several months after elections are held.
Ebola fears are non-existent for Ivanhoe. Firstly Ivanhoe operations are at the opposite end of the country. Secondly: https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/what-know-about-ebola-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo
Sooo, where are the anal-yst reports from the Merrill Lynch Conference? Not expecting bad news in any respect, other than political, which I can live with, my horizon is a couple of years or so out. Maybe that explains the nervous trading (to me) this week?
Given the increased unrest in the DRC, seems not.
Oh, and an article a few years old, but still with relevance, providing the discount factors to the Perfect Storm valuation model.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-10-08/investors-shunning-the-world-s-richest-mineral-deposits
Would you agree then that a lot of people in possession of just enough knowledge to be wrong need to throw away their overworked calculators? (I know it won't happen ).
The only valuation model that I figure works for IVN is that of The Perfect Storm ( of the multitude of factors, known and unknown, of supply and demand). I believe that perfect storm is a comin'. Just be patient.
Johnnyono, you are a lawyer. That's an insult, btw, cuz as a lawyer, you wouldn't recognize it as such.
You're also a metaphorical Paul Grahame, faster, faster, uhhhhhhhh, all over.
And I'm an accountant. A former public CFO s/w dreamer.
And an Ivanhoe believer since sixty cents.
And looking for a 100 bagger.
Who wants to be an underachiever like Peter Lynch, who I once met.
Naw, craft beer and a reefer with animal parts on the Traeger, in honour of Queen Vicky.
Rocky road next week, glad my horizon isn't short:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/19/world/africa/congo-prison-break-kabila.html
Seems to me that is a truly disruptive technology shift. Excellent timing for Ivanhoe.
I actually don't expect any serious unsolicited offers, though if any were received the Board would have to consider if they were worth responding to. And if so, respond. There is not enough information in the public domain to make an offer that is not subject to a great deal of follow-up due diligence.
Why I do not think RF will seek offers is that he is building out the assets as if he is going to operate them, transportation, power, medical services, mining infrastructure, all building goodwill with the government, the populace, shareholders and other stakeholders.
And yes, looking forward to the continuous flow of resource , economic, and financial reports. This is the one investment I don't expect to part with for a few years.
To add a thought to the ever-growing assets, I do not think RF will seriously entertain any offers until the drills have stopped turning, until the assets are defined with laser precision. But I am still of the view that with his likely last kick at the can, he would like a legacy as a builder, as he is already a successful explorer, and a wealthy one.
That said, please don't believe me too much, I am prone to fantasy.
I figure that any insurrection would not want to harm mining exploration operations, that would generally be unpopular as it would only harm employment. As there are no revenues, only potential, insurrection wouldn't shut off government revenues from mining exploration as there is very little relative to producing mines.
That said, yes, agreed, crazy b@stards could still stir things up. But I figure China wouldn't take it lightly, they need copper, and more next year, and the year after. Kabila may even invite them in.
To me, the real risk is in a few years, after production is at full tilt, and there are stirrings of nationalization if the government is incompetent and unpopular. Like Venezuela.
Agreed. As I am looking out a couple years or so, and as IVN does not seem to have any precarious hurdles in its path ( including DRC politics, in my view) this is just noise. That said, if I had a cash crunch, outlook for me could change. As it does daily for individual investors, something too many IVN investors fret too much about. Ignore the daily swings, think of the ever-growing assets.
"When Barack Obama was sworn in as the 44th president of the United States on January 20, 2009, the U.S. stock market was in free fall. The financial crisis was in full swing following the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index, a popular measure of the U.S. stock market, closed at 805 points on Inauguration Day.
Eight years later, the S&P 500 index has risen to 2,274 points after one of the great bull runs in stock market history. With Obama as president, the U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, returned 235%, or 16.4% annualized."
Trump can mange moi.
This company will be developed, not sold, in whole or in bits. Two reasons, Chinese control and RF's legacy as a builder at stake.
I figure today's markets, despite positive commodities, are all the Trump Effect. The markets will be less rational as long as the narccistic, vacuous child remains President. This financially conservative capitalist cannot wait until he is a smudge in history.
Johnny, you brown wipe, you deserve Trump.
Of course I am speculating, but it is not gloomy speculation, rather the contrary. IVN has not been in the business of setting expectations, as they have with the expected drilling results, and now a couple of weeks overdue, missing expectations heretofore easily met. I think there is good reason for this delay, to provide the market with better information.
As to the comfort you receive from the next post, you would also have comfort in my perfect storm scenario, which I believe is plausible, and would drive share price, in time, in excess if those levels speculated in the comforting post.
Yeah, they do. Circumstances now are a bit odd. They are not delivering on promised drilling results. Usually they deliver as promised, whatever the promise. The question is why. My $.02 is that they do not want to release drill results in isolation. A better picture is painted along with other estimates, and that takes more time.
I have noticed from time to time misinformation regarding quiet periods, given the propensity to focus with laser intensity on insider trades, but more particularly on press releases. So here's a good read :
http://westwickepartners.com/2014/06/commonly-asked-questions-about-quiet-periods/
Note also that the same rules generally apply once a company comes into material information that must be released on a timely basis. Insiders are locked up, etc.
RF isn't paying attention to the daily fluctuations. But he knows you are.
RF doesn't plan to issue more equity. His lenders know that.
RF will be the Sheik of CU. A one-man OPEC. He is looking forward to it.
RF knows that one underpromises and overdelivers. So far so good.
RF knows that Ivanhoe needs to be listed on the LSE and the NYSE. But not yet
RF has patience. You should have some too. IVN is the long game.
There is also little risk of a Freeport-Indonesia situation until all properties are producing, and even then, there will be the Chinese who will not hesitate at all, as by then they will even more crucially need the metals.
By Developing Platreef with Debt, RF is Telling the world that he wants his legacy to be that of the man who developed the worlds largest mining company, rather than the man who sold the worlds best mining properties. I expect the other properties will be similarly developed, including from Platreef cash flows. To me, this is great news. The long game is the best game.
Chevy, You're Not SS, You're a Six Banger
And rusty.
Anthony Bourdain Parts Unknown Congo , A Real Look:
The Greatest Enemy of Ivanhoe and the DRC is the United States. China is the largest foreign investor in the DRC. Why? Mining. China is making a fool out of the US in renewable electricity. And the gap is forecast to increase. China controls over 60% of the global cobalt market, with roughly 95% of that coming from the DRC. How much of the worlds cheapest copper will they control?
China is busy constructing railroads, hydroelectric dams, and ports, in Africa, all of which will support transoceanic supply routes in the making.
Chinese citizens are employed in various capacities in the DRC and the Chinese military medical corps supply much-needed medical care throughout the DRC and other strategic countries in Africa.
With the billions China is investing in Africa and the DRC, they are to Africa what the British Empire was to the planet from the 1500's through the 1700's. The only missing element is the military presence. Unless?
Do ya think China is gonna let anyone, terrorists, disagreeable dictators, underfunded African armies, and finally, the USA , get in the way of their multi-billion dollar investment?
RF, debt, jv's, minor financings, but no sellouts to competitors, please. Keep control of the pie slices. Stay the course. I can wait until the value is appreciated fwiw.