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Also, to help ensure they are up the maximum by October 3, you'd think institutions will make sure the price is at or near .03.
After the split we will have 571,651,636/400 = 1,429,142 shares from the current O/S. The Series C will convert to approximately 612,959 shares. Add in 1,142,857 shares from the offering and we have a total of 3,184,958 shares outstanding with approximately $8,000,000 in the bank. The company has already completed the ocular tolerance study. Under the CRADA the government is taking on the vast majority of the research costs for the metformin drops. The company has been required to be in a quiet period as a result of the pending up listing. I believe it should end at the time or shortly after the up listing. It is very possible we receive news on the GLP fairly imminently.
I find it hard to believe that insiders would take the time and effort to up list to a higher exchange, add independent directors, and face additional scrutiny from the SEC as part of the up list process if this was not a legitimate business. The government support on the metformin study adds credibility. I naturally wish the share price was much higher but and the split lower but this is the circumstance we are in. The company could not wait for the share price to rise as the quite period precludes any marketing and most news. Further, we all so the unfortunate financing available without and up list. Long term, I remain confident in this company. All should evaluate the information and make their own informed choice. Personally, I added today near the low. If you are a believer in the drug, than today should have done little to change your view. Good luck to.
That is ignoring the CRADA. We will have to agree to disagree.
The float will be so small a large move will be very possible, especially if we get updates and begin to get analyst coverage. There will be around 3M shares outstanding. I don't love that it is now a 400/1 split but at this point I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt. I do not believe they would go through the difficulty and increased scrutiny of an uplist without a belief in their pipeline and business plan.
I know you have been critical of the company and I understand your concerns but at this point I see a path to a market cap that will be 10x to 50x the market cap post split and financing and I am willing to take that risk.
Imagine if we get a 10M in volume day.
They mention a new acquisition with updates expected by the end of the month, showed a share reduction, and confirmed a few items of recent news. Still need more updates but this shows continued progress and no dilution or insiders selling. Seems like they are building for something. Hopefully we get some substantive news releases in the next few weeks. Time will tell. I remain cautiously optimistic.
Quarterly posted. My initial skim through looks very positive.
Updated S/1 just dropped on otcmarkets.com. Looks like they will only have one warrant per unit opposed to 2 warrants which looks to be a good sign (they don't have the sweeten the offering quite as much) and ultimately less shares on a fully converted basis. I haven't reviewed the rest of the document.
Thanks for posting. Really encouraging.
The hope is that the low volume move up the end of day Friday is indicative that selling has been absorbed and we see a move up. As far as financing being non-dilutive, I don't see that being the case but the terms will be substantially more reasonable than the last financing. I reviewed a few similar financings and it tends to be at the post reverse split price.. The warrants tend to be at the same price but can be above the reverse split price.
Insiders will have to convert their preferred shares prior to the up listing. While they will own a much larger percentage of the company than any individual shareholder, they still are incentivized to keep dilution down.
Nice little recovery today.
Nice buy.
Just low volume. It appears many are in a wait and see mode.
I would imagine they are not happy with the current share price but are limited in what they can state during the quiet period. I can tell you I am very disappointed and thought we'd be closer to .20 at this point. That being said, the reverse split is not going to wipe out shareholders. That is hyperbole. If there were large amounts of convertible notes etc. and it wasn't as part of an uplist then this would be a legitimate concern but I just don't see it in this scenario.
Insiders are going to be in the same boat as us. In the future they may get additional shares as part of the share compensation plan but that is typical in public companies, generally comes with a vesting requirement and according to the S-1 would not be more than 10% of the OS.
Sorry was posting on my phone didn't catch my typo. I suspect we have a market cap of around $65M at the time they go public and after raising funds. I think the company is deserving of a meaningfully higher market cap (several hindered percent) and as it becomes available for institutions etc. to buy I suspect we see it move well north of the $65M market cap. I'd be curious to know what Threeflight's friends things but I could see any one of their 4 drugs being sufficient alone for a $65M or so market cap, with the Metformin justifying significantly more.
There are several pending news events and I suspect news will start to flow once they are on the NYSE and have funds available to move forward with their pipeline.
There will be some warrants that convert but, assuming a 100/1 reverse split the stock price will need to get to around $15 for most warrants to be worthwhile.
Company leadership isn't moving from the OTC to the NYSE (which will have substantially more scrutiny and opportunity) and will require conversion of their preferred shares without the belief that meaningful price appreciation will happen.
This is not a r/s for a stock with multiple convertible notes. This is a reverse split to uplist to a major exchange. I suspect we will see a split of approximately 100 to 1. After the split there will be a financing. My math, assuming $20M in financing puts this at between 12M and 14M shares afterward (exclusive of warrants) and a market cap of approximately 20M.
Even on a fully diluted basis the market cap here is very small with the potential of the pipeline.
Insiders preferred shares will need to convert before the uplist. Most insiders need significant appreciation before any of their warrants will be worthwhile.
Senior leadership has agreed to a share lockup.
At the end of the day insiders need the price to appreciate in the long-term.
It seems pretty evident to me leadership has a plan for share price appreciation with the first step being an uplist.
I suggest everyone reads the S-1 and makes their own informed decisions.
Thanks for the post. CUBT has the chance to go parabolic after the uplist.
can you provide a link? Thanks.
Insiders agreed to a lock-up. It's all in the S-1. Also the preferred need to convert before the uplist. The preferred will convert to 30% of the OS.
I suspect they are nearing an inflection point. They need to raise funding for their studies and they can get much better terms as a company on the NYSE. The quiet period prior to uplisting limits their ability to provide news. In my opinion, the share price does not come close to representing the value of their pipeline but funds and institutions cannot/will not buy a penny stock.
Once on the NYSE, institutions can buy and initiate coverage. It should help us achieve a more appropriate market valuation. Even if they did $20M of funding, with a 100 to 1 reverse split, and with the conversion of preferred shares we are looking at a market cap of around $65M market cap.
That being said the S-1 is full of information but unfortunately most penny stock investors do not take the time to read filings which allows the stock to be negatively influenced by online posts.
The S-1 is pretty clear on that.
All shares will be subject to the split. Management will have to convert their preferred (which will convert to 30% of OS before the split and uplist. All warrants are impacted and adjusted by the split. Most insiders need a 300% to almost 600% gain to make their warrants worthwhile. Financing will likely need to occur after the split as the company will likely need to be on the NYSE at the time.
The company will be uplisting soon, likely in a few weeks, and are in a quiet period. They likely filed several preliminary S-1s and during that period were limited in being able to provide public updates.
They have not been able to provide updates as anything provided could be viewed as "promotional" and delay their uplist. If you read through the S-1 there is a lot of detail about what has been happening.
Once they uplist, institutions can invest and analyst can begin coverage.
Dr. Sohn, is on the board of several large public companies including one with a approximately $10 billion dollar market cap. According to the S-1, she is largely paid in shares and stock warrants (all of which will be impacted by the split). Her warrants will also be adjusted based on the split. Meaning, her warrants at $.11 will be at $11 if there is a 100 to 1 reverse split. This means if the stock is at $.05 at the time of the split (and I hope it is higher) she will need the $5 stock to get to $11 before she would be even on her warrants. Further, I cannot imagine she would associate herself with this company unless she believes in their pipeline and business model, especially since she is largely compensated in equity.
Nobody is happy about the current price but everything I have said is derived from the S-1.
There is a lot of misinformation being posted. The market cap of this company is relatively small, especially with a four drug pipeline, one of which would address a an $11 billion dollar a year disease. Once institutions can buy I see a path for this market cap to get to a few hundred million, especially once news starts flowing. That would be a several hundred percent gain from current levels.
Great analysis.
Naturally this will be higher than that but I don't think they will go anywhere near the maximum. Remember, the warrants that several insiders have are adjusted based on the ratio, including the warrants as part of Dr. Sohn's compensation package. She needs almost a 300% increase just to break even on her warrants. Most insiders have common shares as well and are in tbe same boat as us. In addition, company leadership has agreed to a share lockup (more details in the S-1) so it seems evident they believe this is going up meaningfully in the long term.
Lots of info in the S-1
Retinal Degeneration
We estimate that it will cost approximately $2.0 million in pre-clinical, IND-enabling studies, manufacturing, and other costs related to submitting an IND application. Provided we are able to receive IND approval, we estimate that it will cost approximately an additional $1.0 million to conduct and complete a phase 1 clinical trial of dry age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and Geographic Atrophy. Pursuant to the CRADA (see section of this Prospectus entitled “Product Development” – Degenerative Eye Diseases” for more information), our contribution to the first clinical trial will be a maximum of $115,000, with the balance to be covered by the National Eye Institute.
I believe there are a decent number of pre-revenue companies on the big boards.
Not sure many could meet the market cap requirement or would be willing to have fully audited financials.
They have made a lot more progress than we knew. From below. They have already begun animal studies for two of the drugs. They clearly are in a quite period but looks like a lot of news and updates will start flowing soon.
(1) Each of these therapeutics have undergone certain toxicology and pharmacokinetics animal studies. Please see further description in “Product Development” below for a further description of the development of each indicated therapeutic.
Thanks!
Thanks for the post. Can you remind me where item 6 is from? Thanks.
A reverse split would also impact mangement's shares. If they uplist to go to a higher exchange where institutions can invest it will help us.
Some people trade solely on technicals. Also, maybe they sold a percentage of shares and plan to ride "free shares". I can't speak to their mindset but 100% in two weeks isn't too bad. Personally, I've been adding and holding.
I'm sure lots of folks bought in the .03s during the sell off on March 10th. Some of those folks probably are flipping for close to 100%. There were 9M shares traded that day and only 1.2M yesterday.
Insiders agreed to a lockup.
ASCM was also on the bid. Looked like ASCM was trying to absorb shares in the panic selling. I went to the bid a couple of times and ASCM jumped my bid.
Agreed. Being associated with Dr. Sohn adds legitimacy.
Of course management thinks the company is going somewhere. Why else would they agree to lock-up shares? This piece of information keeps getting ignored. I agree the loan terms were not ideal but that is fairly typical on the otc. Hopefully, they are serious abiut uplisting and this loan is to keep development going and pay for expenses of an uplist.
Insiders agreed to a lock-up.
Agreed. I added today.