I would say it's a chicken or egg debate. Streaming and Rivers as you put it are not the creators of or encouraging more LPs...the government and intention of the whole system is. Canopy knows you can't beat them all in the long run so you may as well join them and make some profits of them...this is the true intent of streaming, rivers and craft grow.

The larger reality in every single industry or business pool is and always has been that 90% of the profits are made by 10% of the players. The only question is will Canopy be in that 10%...I believe so.

Further I would suggest it's not a short term problem at all. New LPs take years to come online. Streaming is partnering with players already a good way through that process...grabbing additional sales for rec start 6+ months from now.

No surprise the market is not seeing it this way...it's to complicated with to many tentacles. Retail market realization is always behind regardless of the sector. The forest will become clearer quarter by quarter now the the hype is out of the way. Over the next 6 months we will see which players will be in that 10% that make 90% of the profits.

Yeah...but no. Its not a wild assumption at all. You move towards operating to the standard, building out your facilities and daily operating procedures well in advance of any inspection. You spend the time and money up front....you dont just wake up one morning and say hey lets go GMP, book the inspection for tomorrow please.

Dealers licence is good but GMP is neccesary imo in regards to Europe more so than Canada. GMP will likely be key in recieving DIN or having any real presence in pharmacy in the future.

Basically a delaers licence as I understand it allows an LP to perform any vertical within the cannabis industry. Its a license to contract other activities within your cultivation space including the ability to perform research and development of the active plant profiles in anticipation of conducting clinical trials.

Tyler stated a couple weeks back in person on a tour of Smith Falls that the GMP certification is coming. My understanding is that both Bedrocan & Smith Falls have been basically producing to these standards forma while but the inspections and certifications as a result take time. Personally I think the continuous expansion at Smith Falls is partly if not wholly to blame...better to have all your rooms done and running to fall under any GMP compliance inspection.

I have a link to an article where Bedrocan Netherlands was quoted as saying they expected Bedrocan Canada/Tweed to be certified GMP in 2017....the article was i think from last November or December. If I must I can certainly dig the link out and post it. Its coming without a doubt.

Neither. It is simply a motion to pass the bill along with out further debate to the committee stage. Recreational marijuana will be available upon Royal assent. Here's a good research link for you.

http://www.courthouselibrary.ca/training/HowToGuides/FedLegGuide/HowABillBecomesLawInCanada.aspx

Here is the actual Bill for your dd as well:

http://www.parl.ca/DocumentViewer/en/42-1/bill/C-45/first-reading

Yeah but no. Mettrum had a slow start in January 2017 like most LPs yet by the end of the quarter (Jan-Mar 2017) they were averaging 351 orders per day...granted this was down from an average per day of 423 which is likely due to loosing patients via the recall issue imo. If sales were immaterial then sales from all other LPs like Canimed, Aphria, Aurora etc. can be considered that as well.

Here is every release from MT January 2017-March 31, 2017. All were sold out in days each time.

Mettrum Releases January-March 2017.
1. 01/02/17 Red No 2
2. 01/02/17 Red No 8
3. 01/02/17 Orange No 8
4. 01/02/17 Blue No 1
5. 01/02/17 Green No 4
6. 06/02/17 Red No 7
7. 08/02/17 Red No 4
8. 08/02/17 Red No 7
9. 08/02/17 Red No 8
10. 08/02/17 Orange No 7
11. 08/02/17 Green No 5
12. 10/02/17 Purple No 3
13. 14/02/17 Yellow Oil Hybrid
14. 03/03/17 Yellow Oil Hybrid
15. 03/03/17 Red Oil Sativa
16. 03/03/17 Red Oil Indica
17. 07/03/17 Blue Oil Hybrid
18. 03/03/17 Red No 6
19. 10/03/17 Yellow Oil Hybrid
20. 10/03/17 Red No 3
21. 10/03/17 Green No 3
22. 14/03/17 Red No 7
23. 14/03/17 Red No 7
24. 14/03/17 Red No 8
25. 15/03/17 Yellow Oil Hybrid
26. 15/03/17 Blue Oil Hybrid
27. 15/03/17 Red No 5
28. 30/03/17 Yellow Oil Hybrid
29. 30/03/17 Blue Oil Hybrid
30. 30/03/17 Red Oil Indica
31. 31/03/17 Purple No 3
32. 31/03/17 Orange No 7

Here it i:
https://www.midasletter.com/2017/06/cannabis-wheaton-financing-dead-water/

Well yes it's possible but it goes to committee then back to the house for third reading, approval and off to senate. Now this could certainly happen quickly but of course the committee which is made up of all parties could reccomend changes (and likely will) which could slow it down.

CPAC online.

http://www.cpac.ca/en/

Yes I watched it. You don't get a better response than that! Bill Blair....you couldn't of picked a better person for that position. He is the hammer....on point at all times...like my dad he can send a nail into 2 x 10 with one swing...old school, no air nailer needed.

Unfortunately no. It needs 3 readings in the house then three in the senate which leads to Royal Assent. Bills come into effect upon Royal Assent unless the legislation specifically states a start date. The house breaks for summer then back in the fall. My hope would be to see it go to the house either before the break or soon after the fall session starts. Most likely it does not go to the senate until the fall. Here are some good links for you:

1) https://www.ourcommons.ca/en/sitting-calendar

2) http://www.courthouselibrary.ca/training/HowToGuides/FedLegGuide/HowABillBecomesLawInCanada.aspx

If you can find the link to that I will take a look. Personally I am not putting much weight on export for this year...it will be gravy as it happens. I don't think the future is in export...I think it's in boots on the ground as in Canopy needs to have a grow op on German soil etc.

As will the Feds to what is best for them. Besides there are provinces like mine which will most likely prefer mail order only. Besides the municipalities trump all when it comes to distribution and as you look at the larger picture there will be far more municipalities and people that will not want retail outlets or dispensaries so to speak, at least to begin with.

You can't have recreational allowed and essentially enshrined as a right without access to it for people not close to a retail shop or whom want privacy while purchasing. Additionally if you read the verbiage as a whole from the Feds and the bill it is carefully crafted to AVOID EXCLUDING this as was the task force recommendation. More times than not in politics it's not what's in a bill but what's not. Also the inter provincial trade deal has been crafted to head that way once the legislation was clear. The political moves on the whole from my view have been crafted this way. Time will tell and I do think that time is much closer than some think.

On the black market side of things online sales are massive already. Big city folk like to think hey are the centre of the universe lol but the reality currently is there are way more towns and cities in this country without dispensaries and many people in these communities no longer get their cannabis from a guy on the street. They buy it online shipped to their door and not from an LP. The Feds will be keenly aware of this so another reason to have mail order. Impossible task to say you can have mail order but it can only be ordered by mail within your province lol. Case in point...mail order medical.

Well that's what I think but no one really knows for sure. You are correct on the consensus but the low estimate is 14.99 million and Canopy has only beat the consensus 2 out of the last 4 quarters I believe. Some models show around the $13 million and some show $19+ so who knows which is more accurate...I only know what I think..

It's completely possible on a number of metrics...of course they have to continue to scale at the same to increased rate of scalability in regards to expansion, production, harvest and inventory levels. I am not concerned with sales so much but what the market will need to see is positive steps towards cashflow and profits to put it in simplistic terms. Most new stockholders going forward will need to see this as the larger picture is just to big with to many tentacles for many to see imo.

On another note I think it's achievable because Inhave always thought you will see Royal Assent by this year which means you will see mail order rec immediately imo. The current legislation does not actually specify a start date that Incould find (if this is not the case Inimagine someone will correct me here) which means it comes into force upon Royal Assent. Given the liberals have already stated a mail order rec system will be in place for provinces without a plan this is a very real possibility. I also believe Bruce strongly believes this, hence the roll out of mainstreet with craftgrow now. Who knows though. Time will tell.

Besides if I was a liberal who wanted to appease provinces but grab as much revenue as possible I would roll it out via mail order well in advance of the provinces being ready so that I could rake in pretty much 100% of the tax revenues for 6 months while in effect creating somewat of a lead in market share of retail so to speak. Further this would be politically savvy for the next election to show the Feds are capable in contrast to the fustercluck of the provinces.

Better

Q4/17: 17.2 million revenue

Q1/18: 24.9 million revenue

Make that order #414124 now from yesterday (just before midnight).

Average is slightly down if you EXCLUDE 4/20 so I think the average is holding because while you can discount some of 4/20 you can't discount it all.

Canopy Order Tracking - New Website (updated 5/25/17)

1. (4/12/17) #338825
2. (4/13/17) #342580
3. (4/17/17) #344491
4. (4/17/17) #345540
5. (4/20/17) #3493XX - 11:10 am - "Adambro" SH
6. (4/20/17) #349XXX - 2:34 pm - "RainbowRunner" SH
7. (4/20/17) #349843 - 3:38 pm - "Dewd" iHub
8. (4/20/17) #363679 - 5:55 pm - "Blackgold12" SH
9. (4/20/17) #372990 8:00 pm - iHub
10. (4/27/17) #379187 4:20 pm
11. (4/27/17) #379716 1:29 am Christopher Yahoo
12. (4/28/17) #380150
13. (4/30/17) #381510
14. (5/01/17) #382580
15. (5/03/17) #384810
16. (5/03/17) #385221
17. (5/03/17) #385313
18. (5/04/17) #386258
19. (5/04/17) #386420
20. (5/05/17) #387712
21. (5/06/17) #388930
22. (5/10/17) #393350
23. (5/14/17) #396440
24. (5/25/17) #406269 Ridgeback 2017 iHub

Current Order Tally:

* 67,444 total orders over 43 days including 4/20 (4/20 orders were 23,990)
* 43,454 total orders over 42 days excluding 4/20
* Current orders per day = 1,034

Did someone place an order today? If so post the order number and I will update the average for you. As of May 14th the average daily order number since the start of the new website is 1050 per day...THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE 23,990 orders procesed on 4/20 as I extrapolated that day out of the equation so the numbers are not scewed. We are definately still tracking the 1100 orders per day mark that we had in Q4/17.

Give me a newer order number and we can see how its holding up lately.

The reason it will survive and in fact flourish is because of DIN (drug identification numbers). You will see scripts turn into specific prescription amounts & daily dosage recommendations in the future and it will not be for dry bud....capsules will be the script because doctors will be able to say how many and how often and print such on the label. I think in the future if you want your MJ to be covered by a health insurance plan or even prescribed by doctors you will likely have to live with capsules only....same way most drugs are prescribed now. This is why Canopy is pushing so hard on encapsulation and study of dosage etc...they will give the government this data and in return preferential treatment in the DIN process...just my opinion here. First mover on the DIN capsules whomever that may be will have a big lead advantage in approaching doctors to reccomend their capsule in a script.

http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/dhp-mps/prodpharma/activit/fs-fi/dinfs_fd-eng.php

Yes Canada Post is supposed to check if for alchohol...it's in their regulations:

"4.1
Why identification is required
To help prevent identity theft and other improper uses of products and services, identification is required to ensure mail and other services are properly provided and to permit follow up if further investigation is required for law enforcement and other legal purposes.

Identification is required in various situations including when customers are:

recipients of alcohol"

https://www.canadapost.ca/common/tools/pg/manual/PGpolicies-e.asp

Disappointed but probably not to the point of selling. I suppose a lot would have to do with why they missed my projection targets as well as the lowest analyst target of 14.99 million.

I think you are wrong there but we can agree to disagree. Easily half imo of medical is just rec in disguise anyway which is why Health Canada as we speak is nearing the 200,000 patient enrolment mark. This is a long play for me, has been since I got in August last year. I don't follow the stock price daily but concentrate on the changes company wise...I bought a company not a share price. I like posting on occasion sharing my thoughts as they change but frankly short of a hurricane blowing up Smith Falls I probably won't follow the sp daily until $20 sometime in the future.

I calculate the revenues pre legislation among other things just to see that my expectations in growth are being met and so far they are. I'm not interested in daily share prices only my expectations of management execution. There is tons you could debate but frankly not much that hasn't already been hashed over endlessly here already.

The simple reality once you eliminate all the noise is this:
1) recreational use is coming
2) globalized acceptance of cannabis is coming
3) 5 billion plus sales in Canada alone is coming
4) not a single other Canadian LP at this point has shown they can scale up q over q year over year anywhere near what Canopy has done. While other LPs are trying to catch up with their million square foot plans it's one thing to build it and another entirely to grow it...Canopy has already as of last q proven they can do both. A long ways to go but no disputing history.

The 17.2 million estimate I am going with would allow for the same amount of product as exported in Q3 but no increase...you could argue there should be an increase with respect to Germany I suppose but I am not convinced there will be YET. It's a growth revenue stream to be sure for Canopy but I think it's best to assume it's in the extreme infancy still at this point. The 17.2 million would NOT have any Australian export in it as there is no historical metric yet with which to project this so I prefer to leave it out and consider it a bonus if it happens.

Would love to be wrong here but I personally don't see it. I will say that I consider the 17.2 million to be the minimum.

I've run a number of different projection models and they all come out in a range of 16-20 million in revenues. My bet is $17.2 million...likely on the conservative side but I prefer that anyway.

Just follow this link to see what the progress is.

http://www.parl.gc.ca/LegisInfo/BillDetails.aspx?Language=E&Mode=1&billId=8886269

And what step is that? Second reading?

Again man....I didnt attack you...informed you through discussion. As for properly predicting i really dont need your help bud....i have been dealing with financial statements in my real life for 30 years. I own/owned multiple business from franchising to real estate. If i needed advice in that regard it wouldnt be from a stock board with strangers lol...i have lots of resources any day of the week with one phone call and lunch. This stock isnt me making money or net worth...its making some of my net worth make money while I build outside of the casino that is the stock market.

In regards to my revenue prediction model via orders etc I am simply crunching other ways of looking at things outside of the box you want to "teach me". Stay in the box and your business will fail. Not to long now and we will see if that method specific to Canopy works....quite curious to see it myself. I would suggest its value is in predicting the bottom end of revenues, conservatively so to speak. It may also prove to be a handy monkey math prediction model that can be done and understood by others less experienced easily.

One thing I have learned over 30 years as an entrpreneur is that most of the time there is so much noise you cant see the forest through the trees. Dumbing it down or Occam's razor proves to be most accurate most of the time.

Innregards to the Pharmachoice letter of intent I still dont think ypu really understand the business model of Pharmachoice and how that affects the letter of intent with Camnimed. Will just have to agree to disagree on this as there is just nothing more to beat to death on it lol.

As for mods deleting posts I assume you can post a private reply to me anytime or do so on stockhouse as I use the same alias there. If I think its worth a reply I certainly will. Cheers.

http://napra.ca/pages/Practice_Resources/National_Statistics.aspx

Also PharmaChoice is somewhat different than a lot of the bigger players that serve a larger percentage of the Canadian public like Shoppers or London Drugs....a lot of this is due to geography. Essentially Pharmachoice is 700 independent opperators with an agreement to use PharmaChoice as a banner or consultants but I do not believe the independent operators are tied to any particular drug brand should they choose to and again when they can't get product on the shelf exclusivity will not matter (yes the press release states exclusivity but that is with PharmaChoice on a recommendation basis not an agreement with each of the 700 individual owner operators). It's not like a Shoppers/Loblaws set up. Even if you were right more locations does not necessarily translate into more sales if the vast majority of your locations are for instance small rural towns. Take Saskatchewan for instance....1 million people in the province with 75% of that population in major cities dominated by either Shoppers, London Drugs or Walmart from a pharmaceutical sales bases.

Even PharmaChoice states the following:

"Each location is unique and tailored to the community it serves. With the support of the PharmaChoice team, your independent owners and operators are united in a promise to always provide you with best Advice for Life."
Imo the reason PharmaChoice has so many locations is only because their play is the smaller communities that can't support the larger chains...good play but doesn't mean they have a 30% market share.

As far as the oils set up goes great to have the ability but far from the execution at this point. Lots of players have or will have this same ability.

You seem to be taking this as some sort of personal attack on my part which it isn't. You stated 30%....I am pointing out it is simply not founded on any fact yet. Time may prove you to be right but it may also prove you wrong.

Yes I was aware of that...heck I live 10 minutes from Cannimed. Nothing in the agreement to my knowledge states exclusivity which is my point...highly unlikely a pharmacy of any reasonable size will stock only one source. Additionally Pharmachoice has 700 locations while Canada as a whole has 10572 pharmacies as of January 2017. So that's 6.5% of the total pharmacy market share and again no mention of exclusivity...hardly 30% but a good move none the less.

One thing Cannimed has going for them is the GMP compliant...a good move to be sure.

Shouldn't be to far behind. This article is from January 2017 in regards to Bedrocan in the Netherlands but quote:

"The company also hopes its sites in Canada and the Czech Republic will become fully compliant within the next year."

So likely we will hear news by year end. My guess is GMP will not be limited to Bedrocan Canada but Tweed Smith Falls as well since they have adopted the same consistency standards.

I will put an email into Tyler in this regard and see what he says.

As for anyone LP locking up pharmacy it is just not likely to happen. Since supply will be exrtremely short for years management of say Shoppers (Loblaws) would have to be a pretty short sited to only use one supplier. Ever go into a pharmacy and see only one brand of anything available? More likely they will have multiple brands individually and work out various supply agreements on bulk to supply their own branded whatever....this is where GMP becomes important - if you want to have multiple sources supplying you then you need to guarantee those multiple sources are following the exact same process to deliver you the same strain consistently even though it is different growers. Just my guess. In reality this industry is so young that statements of any one LP locking up 30% of pharmacy are highly unlikely. Of course if anyone has some concrete evidence or source link in this regard I'm sure we would all love to see it.

http://mobile.in-pharmatechnologist.com/Regulatory-Safety/Cannabis-grower-gains-EMA-GMP-status-for-Dutch-plants

Here is what I have Bedrocan at for this year prior to the new website up and running. The new website will make tracking easier as a whole but will make it impossible to see any one entities singular performance.

Bedrocan (02/20/17) #66100 to Bedrocan (03/15/17) #72347 = 23 days = 271 orders per day

So kind of bored last night and recrunched some numbers a different way. Pretty much comes out the same as my previous $17.2 million projection for Q4/17 but some interesting stats none the less. I attached a google drive link for complete calculations etc for anyone who cares to double check the logic & math.

New projections based on determining the Mettrum & Canopy combined sales, grams sold and orders for Q3/17 (ended December 31, 2016).

Using Q3 stats and Q4 total order numbers I project $17,238,006 in sales for Q4/17 (ended March 31, 2017).

Highlights:

Combined Canopy & Mettrum Stats Q3/17:
* Total sales Q3/17 = $15,044,556
* Total orders Q3/17 = 86,205
* Total grams sold Q3/17 = 1,798,614
* Average sale price per gram = $8.36
* Average dollar per order = $174

Combined Canopy & Mettrum Stats Q4/17:
* Approximate total orders for Q4/17 is 99,069
* 99,069 orders x $174 per order = $17,238,006 sales for Q4 2017

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B7fe_9gq4QXUY2VZUGJkWHVqOG8

order number #379716 placed at 1:29am.

Nice. So I readjusted my orders per day tracking based on you number but REMOVING 4/20 orders so the data isn't screwed. Current average orders per day as of your number for the new website is 1081. Thanks!

What day was that order placed? Today I assume? Thanks.

Excellent thanks. I hadn't thought of that metric. I was focused on the $ per order from last q which came out to as you said to $180. Another way to project. Its going to be interesting if nothing else to see how accurately either system is at projecting the outcome. Appreciate the insight thanks alpine.

Well if you are right on the 2.3 million grams in Q4 that would be approximately 17 million which would definately fit the daily orders profile.

Do you mind my asking how you came to estimate the 2.3 million grams sold in Q4?

At December 31/16, 3,809 kg of inventory was in finish process & awaiting approval for sale. So that still leaves 28.3 million to be accounted for at the $7.43 per gram historical average plus the oils at 2,683 litres.

Also there was 3,844 kg held back for conversion to oils and capsules so there is more there at some point. Can probably write that off for now in projections as capsules are still unapproved and the AES industrial capacity extraction equipment which is still to be fully commisioned I believe.

Yeah you are right...I was just litterally going over that again because it was bugging me the sales were so low pre 2017! I should have checked my math before posting. I was just about to correct it on the board so this reply will suffice. Sorry all.

I now have sales of $40,304,351 and 5,418,471 grams sold as of December 31, 2016 so that should put Canopy at an average of 7.43 per gram...exactly as you have stated. Thanks.

I agree with your order count analysis as I have pretty much the exact same thing using that method but if you crunch the numbers with the corrected math above and a theory based on 7 million grams to date it now it puts sales much lower than 17 million....closer to 12 million which seems way to low to me.

On another note if you look at inventory available as at December 31/16 it was 3,809 kgs so at $7.43 oer gram that is $28.3 million which is why 12 million in sales Q4 2017 seems way to low.

So I crunched some numbers based on todays press release. Here is what I have come up with....let me know if the logic & the math makes sense to you. It looks like $32.6 million in sales this year to date!

Canopy Sales Projections For Q4 2017 ( ending 03/31/17)

* 7 million grams sold to date under the Canopy.
* Canopy average sale price as of December 31, 2016 was $7.22 per gram.
* 300,000 orders to date under the Canopy.
* $17,866,050 total sales under the Canopy as of December 31, 2016
* 7,000,000 x $7.22 = $50,540,000 in total estimated sales under the Canopy.

Thesis:
Based on the disclosure by Canopy today of over 7 million grams sold to date & the average selling cost per gram by Canopy since 2015 of $7.22 per gram we can assume that total sales to date have been approximately $50,540,000. Since we know the actual total sales under the Canopy since 2015 is $17,866,050 then we can assume that there has been approximately $32,673,950 in sales from January 1, 2017 to date. The question is how much of the 32.6 million in sales was done as of March 31, 2017......safe to say it was a lot.

Based on my order tracking projections previously posted I had sales for January 1, 2017 - March 31, 2017 estimated at 17 million. Based on this new data I am leaning toward it being substantially higher in the $20 million plus range.

Source Notes:
* www.canopygrowth.com. Total sales from all financials to date. 2,371,351 + 12,699 =2,384,050 + 6,984,000 =9,368,050 + 8,498,000 = $17,866,050
* www.canopygrowth.com. Average sale price per gram from all financials to date. 7.30 + 7.34 =14.64 + 7.09 =21.73 + 7.01 =28.74 + 7.36 =36.1 ÷ 5 = $7.22
* https://www.newcannabisventures.com/canopy-growth-details-rigorous-testing-procedures/