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"bringing the total number of authorized shares of common stock to
95,000,000 shares"
Hahahahaha just think what a 1B BO would look like fully diluted! I will help. Around $10 a sh. Nice! That should make all the LTSH sleep well tonight.
But yea, BO any day now. Hahaha so glad I bailed 11 months ago on this.
Is that a serious question? They need more shares to raise money, which they are about to desperately need. Its not rocket science. They are still able to issue 20-25M shares as of now, but they want 30M more. So issue 20M now at $3 and still have 30M more to issue later on to fund all the trials. Seems pretty obvious this was needed.
Does this proxy really sound like a company looking to be sold? Of course not. Has it looked like it would be sold before this information? Nope, just hopeful longs looking to bail ASAP.
I think the biggest piece of your statement is no CMO by April. There will be no new CEO until $ issues are resolved. If the cash balances are still low by April with no near term resolution for cash needs, then the interim will issue shares and then be replaced. If a CMO is brought in before then, this is even more of a possibility. If, if, if, the company is not looking to sell now and wants to hold off a year or 2 for more money, then someone will have to do the dirty work of rasing cash and who better than a interim CEO on the way out the door for retirement. Then cash reserves are solid, a new CEO can be brought in, and then as new data rolls in the SP should climb accordingly for an eventual BO at much higher prices than 20. But I agree, if neither are brought on within 6 months, something is going.
Very good question Steve. Everyone here yeasterday was aware of this news and called the company either lazy on the PR front, or in operation silence because of pending BO talks. Well, they PR'd it today, 1 day after it was available, so I guess the operation silence is not in effect at the moment and the only reasonable conclusion is poor PR operations. This should reduce alot of the BO talks here I would hope.
Oh I guess you were not here in 2015 when this rose from $7 in Feb to $30 in early June, just before ASCO? Oh wait, yes you were. Maybe you forgot about that, or attibute it to something else. What real data has ADXS released over the past 2 ASCO events? Need a hint, I think that would be zero. Might contribute to now drift up. But this year, they might actually have new data to release that casuses some excitement.
So do you see the only 2 options for ADXS as being masively dilute now or sell the company? Really? And you think those options are more realistic than releasing good combo data at the largest event of the year?
And that is exactly when they will get funding in my opinion.
Historically what happens when ADXS releases something good? It goes up a couple days, then goes back down, or it goes down the day they release a good PR. So why release good data now if they cant capitalize on it. Outside of the withholding data by federal law, would it not be prudent to structure everything around the same time if possible, in a good overal market/enviorment and release everything back to back, and then get funding in that 8-10 range? Items like (new partnership, good data, royalty income, sell of a franchise, ect) right around ASCO when all eyes are on Bio's. I certainly think that soulds reasonable. Why release anything now unless you have to?
Absolutely they do need money. But they don’t need it tomorrow. They should be good for at least 6 months, which takes them through ASCO. If this can drift up like most do under the ASCO effect and then release some data which is already slotted for 1H, then maybe this gets up close to 10 or so. Do an offering on that momentum and cover your expenses for another 6-12 months without massively diluting existing SH. Heck if DO was able to bring in $200M at an average cost of $12, then surely ADXS can find someone to do just as good a job as him right? I mean the company is stronger now than it was, they have millions of RSU to give away, DO has since been fired/left, Bio is heating up, M&A is heating up, plenty of new investors out there that have not been previously burned by ADXS or DO, so surely they can find a solid reputable CEO out there somewhere to run this company for the next 2-3 years. It doesn’t matter what the SP does day to day. As long as the science is solid in the end and they can keep enough money in the bank to keep the lights on (and fund everyone’s paycheck) then it is just a waiting game for everyone.
Yes that is exactly my point. Agreed just letting this trade on its own would help, along with getting a reputable CEO would help also. Lots of things will help rise this, but the approval would be almost a sure thing. With that being just 2 years away, why would anyone want a BO now at $10-$20? That is my point. If we agree this can recover on its own, and a new crazy high on FDA approval, why sell now for $20? I just dont understand that thought process. Why would management ever consider selling now when they can just wait 2 years and let the science do its thing. They dont even have to do much. Just hope the science works and sit back and wait.
So you do not beleive those 2 things would cause ADXS to go to new highs?
Also I never said recover. At what price would this need to get to be considered recovered? $8, $10, $20,$30?
ADXS has entered multiple agreements, multiple partnerships, multiple Institutions owning a substational number of shares, great (best ever) data, countless ophan and fast track designations. Yet... This sits at $3. My statement has always been, sure anything could happen that might cause this to rise one day, it could even do that without anything even changing, but once that final data is released and it is good, then there will be ZERO question as to this going up or down. This thing would rocket to all-time highs on insane volume and would be out of the control of the "manipulators". Until then, it is a coin filp really.
Unfortunately the same exact thing was siad for 2017. And same exact thing was also said for 2016 (especially after best ever GOG data was released in late 2015). Now its 2018. And 12 months from now 2019 will be the make or break year. The data with keytruda will still be early stage data. The strongest data that can be released is late stage or final phase 3 data. Anything before that is just interim data that might or might not move the stock or shock the market. ADXS needs to release final data, that is good, with a plan to market. If that were to occur nothing would be able to stop this thing. This data is expected 2020 I beleive.
Keep in mind you are not allowing for any delays in your 12 month window. Risky given the history of ADXS. FYI A 6 month delay puts you in mid 2019 which is not that far from 2020.
I think selling for $100 has always been the plan for the company and 2020 has always been that timeframe they have been thinking IMO. Why sell now for 10-20 if in 2-3 years you will have some real data and late stage data to release. Assuming it is good, then a multi Billion valuation at that time is perfectly reasonable. A billion BO valuation now is a joke. Everyone just needs to sit and wait 2-3 more years.
I have wondered the same thing. Also everyone was estatic when DO came on as CEO with his M&A background. Now they hate him. Everyone was estatic when that guy from Merck came onboard because people thought Merck was going to buy ADXS. Then he was fired and no BO offer ever materialized. The list goes on and on. Good deals at the time turned out to be garbage now hindsight. Bad timing of stock offerings turned out to be great timing. There is countless scenarios of this 180 degree flip over the years by posters.
He created a 100% rise in SP from the day he came on till the day he left 4 years later. Not bad. He added around $250M to the market came over that same time. Looking at the peak to $30 he added $25+ to the SP and over $750M to the market cap. With all the talk about a near term BO, who will you attribute that sucess to? Mr interim CEO? No of course not. The would be DO. The same guy who is going to take ONCS to a $20-$30 SP. Possibly higher, possibly a BO, who knows.
That is why I bought 10k shares at $1.07 the day he was given a seat at the Board. I am already up over $10k and could walk away with over a quater mill if he has the same sucess there as he did here. Also I used the profits from ADXS to buy ONCS. DO has made me a LOT of money so far and I hope he can make me even more. The writting is on the wall. I am shocked so many can not see this money making opportunity because they are still butt hurt that ADXS is not at $50 right now.
Also something very funny, if you go read the comments on the ONCS message board, most are word for word what once was posted on the YMB. It is entertaining to read how they are expecting a 1B-2B this year with the possibility of a 2018 BO. Actually sounds a lot like this board also. Haha
Then ADXS management would PR that a BP offered to buy the companay for 10, the BOD determined that unfair for it's shareholders, and then when the SP skyrocketed to $20, a partnership/deal/offering could then be annouced bringing in lots of money with minimal dilution causing shorts to panic and institutions to jump in with the cash needs resolved. None of this has happened yet, but the need for money is real and close. If a offering were to occur down here in the future, obviously no deal talks were ever in discussion. Or management is really just that terrible. Might not be in the best interest of the buyer but would be in the best interest of ADXS and SH.
Correct I do assume there has been no buyout discussion, but if there have been, then they have been discussed in the $5-10 range. Who would bring a 20 offer to the table on a 3 company when they could take that offer to the shareholders directly? If ADXS wants 20 and the buyer wants to pay 10, well then the discussion pretty much ends there. If BO talks have ever occurred, then why have they never mentioned it, why has no analyst ever mentioned ADXs is prime for a BO, why has no Institutional interest caught wind of this and caused a feeding frenzy, and why have shorts held their short position even at all-time lows if there was any merit to the company ever getting a BO offer or even having a discussion? The BOD does not want a 10 offer but the buyer will not want to pay 20 right now. Pretty straight forward really. False, small biotech companies can carry high values, based on the assumption and likely hood of future value. Basic math. If ADXS has a 50% chance of $1B in sales in 2020, then this would not be valued where it is today.
A company entertaining BO ideas at all-time lows is laughable and would look incredibly week! They don’t even know where they are going to get funding for their salaries in 12 months but they in talks with BP for a Billion $ BO? Pure delusional!
Exactly, they value potential companies on many as aspects, some of which are future revenues and ROI. If a potential buyer thought there was a decent chance for ADXS to have significant revenues in the future, then buying the company for 5-10SP would be a great deal for them. The fact that nothing what so ever regarding a potential BO has ever occurred here, means BP does not see this as a good ROI even down here in the 2’s.
It’s as simple as that really. ADXS is still a lottery ticket that could pay off huge for a buyer one day, or they could take a wash on the deal. With markets at all-time highs and ADXS at all-time lows, it would seem that talks of a hypothetical BO should be the last thing this MB should be concerned with.
ADXS should NOT extend the expiration of the Warrants! Every warrant holder had the opportunity for a 2,000%+ ROI if they bought in the open market early on and pure profit if they were involved in the original offering. If the company has the possibility of releasing Phase III data in 2020, then extending the warrants to expire in that year is NOT in the best interest of the shareholders. That would dilute the company roughly 6-7% if they did that. How would SH's feel about that? This MB looses it when they dilute 5% to pay employees, so why would they be any happier watching more dilution to pay a few warrant holders a larger profit?
It seems very reasonable that could be exactly the case. Why else would Doc acquire so many free RSU’s? I think he was getting as many as he could as fast as he could to then do a quick flip and walk away with 8 figures.
Why would Doc not want sell after acquiring soooo many shares so quickly for absolutely nothing. If the company had sold he would walk away loaded and could get a new job as CEO at another bio comp (such as ONCS) with a solid reputation and plenty of $$$ to buy in and become a major player/CEO. Get that next company up and sell out and then walk away with $100M. Sounds like a solid plan to. What does not sounds reasonable is to get a ton of ADXS RSU’s, get fired because you are holding off for a $25M payday rather than $10M, and then watch your shares become nearly worthless after you leave, and then go get a new CEO position at a similar company with the option to buy in massive quantity of shares. If someone could explain that I would be impressed.
That is the exact same thing this board was saying 12 months ago and will be the exact same thing it will be saying 12 months from now.
I would say on average over the years they have done 1-2 dilutive offerings of some kind per year.
This link will give you an idea of the new shares offered over the past 5 years.
https://ycharts.com/companies/ADXS/shares_outstanding
Some of these were secondaries to the public, some were direct placements, some included as part of a partnership.
This does not include the warrants that (if excercised) will add another roughly 3 million shares outstanding. This also does not include the potential near term dilution/partnership that includes new shares at who knows what price.
I understand that dilution is part of the process, but with the outstanding share count at an all time high and SP near all time lows, that is a dangerous spot to be in when you are counting down the months till the cash reserves run out.
Not sure where I lost you there? What do you not understand about that comment?
So you are saying buyers were buying at the close and sellers were selling? Isnt that pretty normal, especially with day traders? Did a massive number of shares trade hands? No. Is a close at 2.99 that much different than 3.00? No. 2.99 or 3.99 or 4.99 or even 1.99, no major difference.
How are posters still calling manipulation? Everyone is looking for that magical answer but it does does not exist. Just plain supply vs demand, risk vs reward. Plenty of supply as stated by you with the heavy sellers at sub 3, yet no real volume stepping up to load the boat. All the recent talk of selling for 10 when this is at 3 with talks of dilution. Plenty of risk with minimal reward. Plus a BO is rare and only happens once. With ADXS dilution is very common and happens annually.
Dilution at historical lows, adding debt to the books, and selling off assets? All in one fell swoop? Sounds like desperation mode rather than making deals in a position of strength.
This is why the shorts have not been concerned about covering, this was there plan all along. The "smart money" institutions held out to the last minute hoping for the company to pull off a decent deal or create some SH value. The company failed at that and it is getting to close for comfort on the dilution needed front. I am supprised thet gave Lombardo such a chance. Guess they really didnt want to sell down here either but were left no option.
That is correct, the "take down" "manipulation" is nothing more that lack of interest in owning these shares. There have been more shares liquidated by instituions than covered by shorts. Shorts have massive unrealized gains and are not covering, while institutions have the potentional for MASSIVE gains (based on the predictions of this MB) and are liquidating at a loss. Hmmm sound strange to anyone else? Or does it sound like shorts made the right call on this one? Stocks dont always go up, not even eventually.
No reason for the short interest to go down substantially until they are provided shares by management. They are clearly not worried about covering now or in the past even with the SP being under $5 and now at $3. They are waiting for either zero or a direct placement. Just like this MB is waiting on a deal or a BO. Who do you think will call it correctly? Some random anonyms posters or some deep pocket shorters who have tens of millions to gain and hundreds of millions to loose?
I think you mean the last 5 times has just been a rehash. When is the last time any new data was released at a conference? Even ASCO and the business update was just rehashed information. Has any new data even been released during 2017?
Atcually BO talks have been going on by these posters on this MB and the previous YMB for over 3 years now. Back then the BO target was 100-200 SP. Just since the recent crash has that # dropped to the current $20-30 range.
And two years ago ADXS had a market cap six times their current level. They have not done any better.
So you say he was "suprised" yet going back through the company PR's, we can see that the upset BOD allowed him (in Feb 2017)to propose a proxy consisting of 2.5MM RSU's per year for 10 years, issued DO 177k RSU's (in June 2017) and the fired him in July 2017 for poor job performance? Really?
Seems like he accomplished the goals the board set out for him to achieve and he was rewarded for it.
Well actually the evidence always pointed to him quiting. The PR heading was "Advaxis CEO Daniel J. O’Connor Resigns". I guess the real question is was there ever any evidence of him being fired. It was never "well stablished" he was ever fired, merely hypothesized on this message board that he was fired.
That was my exact plan when I saw the news that they give him a seat at the Board and this is the exact news I have been wanting to see. I purchased 10,000 shares of ONCS @ 1.07 after reading the news they brought him on. It was only a matter of time before he informed the BOD of how he took ADXS from $3 to $30 in short order. Of course they want him as CEO now. DO made me a six figure profit on ADXS and he could do the same on ONCS. Couldn't be happier about my holdings.
FYI just saw the news on ONCS and wanted to check back with this board and see the responses. No one seems thrilled or sees the buying opportunity? Everyone has seen this once before. You now have a 2nd chance to get in on the ground floor and this time, sell near the top. Rinse and repeat (with the same CEO, just different comp).
And if he does not deliver on all those items you just mentioned, this will remain a single digit stock going into 2018.
Agreed. Looks like institutional shares being dumped into the hands of shorts. I guess that was their long term plan. Seems to be working like a charm. Friday should see crazy volume if I am correct. At least now the shorts are able to cover and wait for the next rise.
This is not a serious question right? You do know how covering a short works I think/hope.
Because the company has not led on that a BO is approaching. This board reads between the lines but the market does not. They read the PR's (and whatever inside information they might get). Only this MB predicts a BO. No other investors other than this MB. This MB can become toxic with predictions if you are not careful.
If a BO was realy a possibility, would this thing really be at multi year lows? I mean really?
Good point. So you are saying for the SP to improve, ADXS only needs to get a drug approved. Sounds easy enough based on their prior experience.
Also something interesting to note. Our largest holder (Adage) also held a large stake in PBYI when they went to $230. They held during the entire drop never once adding or selling, until Q2 2017 when they sold 30% of their stake in PBYI in the $80 range followed by a recent filing where they liquidated another 850k shares just 10 days ago, right around $100 SP. Even the pros make mistakes. Adage missed out on a $1B+ payday, and is settling for a price 60% below its 230 highs.
Maybe he never got fired. It was never disclosed the he ever did. It was stated that he was stepping down for personal reasons. Maybe he saw this coming or has something to do with it. Who knows.
From the beginning everyone knew that biotechs like this have a 90% chance of failing. The odds were stacked against ADXS from the start. 3 CEO's later things are coming into perspective. This is a learning experience now.
I absolutely agree. But this does not need Nuclear Level Warfare news to drop 20%+. It can do that on its own with just a business outlook PR. The R/S and a secondary will become more discussed topics on this board in the near future I bet.
Just some things to consider: delisting regulations, institutional portfolio re-evaluations (we are nearing Q end, this could remain sub $5 by then), $ needs assuming a "deal" is not struck. Lots to think about I/m/o
If secondary would get the shorts to go away I think they should consider it. But if they are waiting and pushing for zero then this could get ugly.