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Appreciate the solidarity, Trader. I bought them quite some time ago when the 7.50 options were at the money. It is a big hit no doubt.
Luckily, and no credit to me at all, I bought a few thousand shares of a company called HMNY (Helios and Matheson, a tech company that's a puny competitor to Netflix but primarily in the movie theatre ticketing business now) based on someone's advice when it was at $3 and sold it around $30, which is by far the best return I ever had in my life. Please see its graph over the last 6 months, it's insane. And it made up for my options losses. I also lucked out last year with AMD.
I still think ADXS might be one of my best returns ever if Tony Lombardo executes. Fingers crossed.
I agree, Gantor. 3 is the new 8 but I think they don't want investors, both existing and new, to know that 3 is the bottom and would prefer to keep them wondering. I believe they are still covering and will perhaps finish, to whatever extent they want to, in alignment with tax loss selling, and only end on 12/31.
I think there's a good possibility that the tide will turn around in January with one or two major catalysts, followed by some positive press.
Good question. My suspicion is they don't want to send out a buy indicator to the market by closing out the puts at this time. I am not sure they are done with closing out their short positions to the extent they want to as yet. I'm only half sure about this.
Ig, I think so too regarding the short control ending by now if not for the tax loss selling. But interesting perspective on the 7.50 puts expiring Jan 18. They only have themselves to blame for killing volume in the options market. I actually have 100 Jan 18 7.50 calls contracts myself, which are as good as dead. But I do see how your theory might work out if they start buying shares now to help them exercise the puts on Jan 18.
Some fund appears to be buying or covering this morning. Nearly all of the volume is from this entity, besides some MM churning to facilitate their trades. Won't be surprised if a bunch of short funds start to close out their positions before the end of the year with as little stir as possible. They are setting themselves up for 2018. Hoping the new year starts with a bang, with Lombardo announcing an EU partner or PSA deal or HER2 sale, followed by an EMA submission. Tony will get it done!
Cab, I think most people are either tapped out of investment dollars or exasperated with the early stage biotech sector, which has been reduced to a hedge fund playground with no referee. So if you notice a lack of enthusiasm about another micro cap, that might be the reason. In any case, it appears you have a good entry point at 1.07, assuming players like Adage will get on board shortly. I will get into it the moment a big player makes entry.
Bourbon, I previously put money into ONCS (in early 2014) and took it out at a 20% loss. Believe me, I know all about Punit, that talentless wonder. I also know that he shares the same philosophy about funding company operations as Dan - largely, perhaps overwhelmingly, through dilution. Punit didn't do even that very successfully. Which is the reason why Dan now has the controls. His only job will be to bring in money, as he did at ADXS through for good, bad or ugly deals. He will bring in his hedge fund friends by making shares + invisible warrants deals (which act as insurance in case the stock runs away and they are short). I'm waiting for the announcement about new investments into ONCS. I strongly believe the stock will go up quite a bit before they pull it down.
I don't think so, Attila. I think there will be a run up first, to pull in retail investors, and then they will start shooting from the top. I will be long first.
If Dan can get hedge funds like Adage and others to invest in ONCS, as he has done with ADXS, we know what happens next. Well, I do intend to participate in the run-up if that happens and swim alongside them in their double game; run with the hares and hunt with the hounds.
Yep. If long time longs are willing to give away the company's products or their shares for peanuts, I don't know why they are even waiting for a buyout. They might as well sell now or could have done so sooner. It is like an unhappy marriage that they don't appear to have the courage or conviction to get out of.
I think 3 billion would be a fair offer if we can get EMA application submitted soon, get a good upfront payment for licensing AXAL, PSA or HOT, or sell HER2 for a good price. The SP would obviously be pushed up before a buyout offer is made to make the premium look reasonable. Serious long term investors should ignore noise coming from every direction in the fog of this manipulation program. Whether it's Amgen or someone else, I believe the offers will start coming in once some positive material news starts rolling in.
Fbg, come on man. Ig obviously meant $250 million to be the upfront payment, not the overall value of a potential AXAL deal for US + EU. That would make zero sense. Seriously, you think ADXS' lead product that is in phase 3 with an SPA, and with Avastin's $6 billion annual revenues for comparison, would simply be given away for peanuts? For less than half of the preclinical NEO? All because the manipulators have taken the SP down to senseless levels? If you care about your investment, you have to reevaluate your expectations for the company, independent of the manipulation garbage being perpetrated on the stock.
Gantor, I would hardly blame you for wondering if the silence on the part of ADXS is deliberate in order to help their hedge fund investors cover. However, I fail to see what the company or management could gain from a multi year manipulation scheme. If the suspicion is that they are being paid off through affirmative votes for comp raises every year, it seems like an awfully huge legal risk, compared to easily profiting from a stock rise over 3 years, as retail and non manipulative institutions would have happily voted for them for good stock performance.
However, I never say never and there might be the remote possibility that Dan knowingly struck some dirty financing deals, for lack of better options, and got fired when the details came to the BOD's attention. And now Lombardo and the BOD might be allowing the funds to get it over with once and for all, before initiating a better funding model for the future. But this would be pure conspiratorial speculation that wouldn't seem outlandish only because of the way the stock has performed while the company was largely silent. But if true, I would be inclined to think that there won't be a buyout in the near future; I mean why would the BOD and Lombardo worry about burning the funds if they can no longer hurt the company as it's being sold? If the conspiracy is true then there would no telling what would happen next and I would prefer to sell the stock on the next rise up. But I still remain unconvinced that management would take such a risk. Events that will unfold over the next few weeks and months will shed a lot more light, though they will never complete the picture for us.
Even if you hate this company, including its science and management, to your bones, the stock takedown we have all been witnessing is completely ridiculous and utterly criminal. The stock is currently trading at less than cash plus assets for goodness' sake. No unorchestrated market functions this way in the absence of any news whatsoever for days, weeks, months and years on end. Broken stocks also trade heavily in premarket and after hours, which never happens in ADXS. Today's takedown appears pre-planned to be the worst in the last one week, to coincide with the release of the short interest later in the day. We'll have to see the numbers to get a better sense of their covering activity, although a lot of buying/covering has occurred within the last 10 days and will be invisible in today's report. But make no mistake, this is not "free market" trading in any sense or spirit of the word.
In a way, I'm glad that the hedge fund and MM manipulation scheme is in its laser throes now. We are pretty close to zero and they are fast running out of altitude to crash this in a controlled way.
Just as long as ADXS doesn't dilute anywhere below double digits, which I seriously doubt they will, I can see a path to very meaningful recovery (EU partnership, with US rights possibly added to it, and EMA submission). There could also be a sale of HER2 or prostate licensing with Merck. But if they choose to sell it after the EU story advances and the stock recovers to the 20s, I won't be complaining.
Thanks for that info, good to know. If multiple biotech stocks had similar closing trades, it might very well be a fund or, more likely, funds rebalancing. It is just the MMs implementing pre-arranged trades for the funds.
Agreed. While I do not doubt that some institutions could sell because they think they may have made a losing bet, I doubt that that is the case here, especially given where the PPS is. We'll see.
Ig, TD Ameritrade shows it as a sell. It was for 337K. It looks as though someone is still not done selling in order to cover their boxed short, presumably Adage.
I agree with everything you said, Fbg. It is only a matter of time now before we hear about the EU deal. We are getting close to a few goal posts, so just a bit more patience from longs will pay off.
I think at this point it would cost people a lot if they misinterpret the trading activity over the last few months, including the odd large block sells and buys every now and then. Luckily for them, even the most exasperated longs here only complain, which is understandable, but don't sell. And some like me, add. But it would make little sense for longs to believe that Adage is starting to sell at multi year lows, or worse, for Adage to actually be doing it. All without any material negative news, but just a few irritating delays.
Good observation. One cannot say Adage made a killing on their short - them being short being the general wisdom now - unless they covered it or are doing so now. Which means Adage sees this as the bottom range.
On the other hand, if they are simply selling their position, it means they are realizing actual losses, which in turn means Dan made no dirty deals and Adage thinks they made a bad bet. But I doubt that they are just selling now in the 4s, and not even in the 7s when they had the chance to, considering how slowly and methodically they are doing it (I mean why the 2 week gap in selling since 9/29).
I am now even more convinced that Adage is just covering from their box and this garbage will end soon, and will be made to coincide with the announcement of an EU partner, the delay in filing notwithstanding.
Interesting, I didn't notice the rest of the transactions at 12:22 PM. TD Ameritrade only shows smaller blocks, not adding up to much, besides the 3 large blocks. In any case, it is amazing that volume is almost non-existent if not for this one minute, besides the usual HFT churning.
Watching L2 - a single 510k block purchase for 4.30 at 12.22 and two sell blocks cumulatively amounting to 110k pretty much simultaneously. We know that the stock is being closely controlled by MMs and hedgies while they are gathering shares here and there to exchange these pre-arranged trades.
As I was saying yesterday, it didn't appear that the short scheme had ended. I wouldn't be surprised if the net volume yesterday was short, as all the large blocks were sells.
I noticed that the HFT algos went into full gear about 30 minutes ago and have dropped the SP by 20 cents using very few shares.
I wouldn't be surprised to see this continue until there is material news released or the primary short entity is almost fully covered, whichever comes first; preferably the latter so we don't have to deal with them again in the near future.
I don't disagree even remotely. In fact, I want the price to go much higher than $30, simply based on clinical progress and partnerships, although it may take a bit to get there.
But I can see how longs who feel so beaten down for so long would want a much higher price simply as a reward for patience all this time.
Longs would be much more open to saying that there is HFT manipulation upward if there were more instances of it occurring. The stock has been manipulated down relentlessly for over 2 years, so a move up is only logical. But the HFT machines can certainly amplify the move.
If there was no manipulation in either direction, investors, or for that matter shorts, wouldn't have to say anything at all. But we know that that is not what's happening.
For the record, while there are quite a few retail buyers today as well as some large block sellers, I will acknowledge that HFT 100 share blocks are propping the price.
Yep. We may need a few more days to evaluate the HFT trend, whether it is a reversal, plateauing in the current range, or continuation of the beat down.
I doubt that there will be further SP beat downs but they may keep it within a certain range, in order to confuse both shorts and retail buyers with regard to direction ahead of material news.
I added yesterday around $4, not because I foresaw today's activity but the idea that Adage would let the SP go much lower than their original purchase price seems implausible.
I am absolutely certain that the SP will go up and the very shorts who have been suppressing the SP for years on end will contribute majorly to it. I was responding to Ig's question about L2 activity today, specifically.
I am seeing certain indications of HFT reversal, such as 100 block shares largely pushing the SP up instead of down, but I also see that the large blocks at pre-arranged prices are mostly sells. But unless we see this HFT trend continue for a few days, it would be hard to say whether the short entities have changed course. I am sure they will (or might already have) very soon though, seeing as there isn't much room to go lower and because the positive catalysts are coming.
Honestly, I don't see any indication on L2 that the short suppression scheme has ended. I keep seeing a bunch of steady buying from what appears to be retail (<5000 shares). But the large block sales at pre-arranged prices all appear to be sells.
Regardless, the HFT machine is propping the SP up today for whatever reason. It could be an indication by the big short entity to the market that "this is it, no more". Hard to say based on today's activity. We need to wait a few more days.
My suspicion is, only a material event (very likely the EU partnership) will be a definite upside indicator at this point. Also, if an entity like Adage has wind of it by whatever means, they may play some funny up and down games with the SP before the PR is released in order to catch the uninformed shorts by surprise. We'll see.
Hmm, I didn't know that rule. Ain't it nice and dandy for these institutions; to be able to screw over other investors in the very companies that they are invested in, despite being insiders. Now I'm feeling more certain that they are about to take an even larger position than they had before by purchasing from the open market, even cheaper.
While it would not be prudent to call out a pattern using just 3 data points, it is interesting that Adage sold fewer shares during each of the last 3 trading days - around 530k at 4.68 on 9/22, 430k at 4.38 on 9/25 and 300k at 4.00 today. If they are indeed covering from their own box, it would suggest that they are doing so by selling the fewest shares at the lowest price. That would make sense. It is admittedly a very small price range for a company like Adage to really worry about, but I still find it curious.
On the flip side, if Adage intended to fully vacate its position, it makes little sense for them to have sold so few shares (which they knew they had to declare to the SEC) in the $4 range, and not higher, knowing that they still hold 4.7 million shares to sell.
I still think they are either covering using the box or rebalancing at the end of the quarter. But we'll know soon enough if my speculation is misplaced.
The SEC has been useless for a very long time. At this point, it is a joke.
My hunch is that Adage is covering from their box, seeing as there is already no room to go lower (we are closer and closer to cash and assets), and even if they did it would have diminishing returns.
Even the depressed longs here are at a point where they see no reason to give up, since they are already up to their chins in paper losses. I won't at all be surprised if, counter intuitively, if this is Adage's signal to the other tutes that the HFT downturn has now reached or reaching the end of the rope. We'll see, just speculation my part.
It is as blatant as it can get. I too have never seen anything like this before, with the exception of MNKD and DNDN. Unfortunately, the only way to get out of this is to sign a massive cash upfront deal for AXAL or license out a significant percentage of one of the franchises (HER2/PSA). I would prefer that they keep HOT for now.
The EU deal for AXAL is coming very soon anyway, as the company is openly advertising ongoing negotiations. It better damn well not be a hybrid deal with a low cash payment. But I am confident that Lombardo is not nearly that stupid, and is more than aware of how the manipulators will use any news that is not indisputably positive in order to beat down the stock.
Also, while significant short covering occurred over the last few days, today appeared pretty even with regard to shorting and buying/covering. It is clear that the manipulation will continue at least for the rest of this week and will pretty much end almost simultaneously with the PR for the AXAL deal, whenever that is.
Agreed, Catt. If there is one positive here, it may be that the hedge fund shorts aren't getting too many retail shares from this manipulated downturn. That is one effect of manipulating for so long; it gives a chance to retail who initially might buy some shares on margin to eventually move to cash only. But I still see that the shorts are able to cover quite significantly. I also think they are able to get several shares from smaller tutes who might be rebalancing and from mutual funds that drop shares below $5.
Fbg, while I was being facetious in my post, I know that you are very convinced that that's what happened. Whatever may be the case, Dan's out of the picture now. I agree with you that the activity of the last 2.5 years is likely to come to an end very soon. The HFTs are operating frenetically, as if they are running against a clock.
Even shorts will admit, if they are in a good mood, that the 50% beat down of the last few days has nothing to do with the company or its updates but an effort to cover everything that they can before material news is released.
Lol, I won't be surprised.
I will fill in for Tin this one time, with his kind indulgence.
Doc was the mole who has been feeding inside info to Adage, FMR and other major institutional holders for over 2.5 years. He promised to notify them either when there was bad news (such as the clinical hold) in advance or neutralize the impact of good news (such as the AMGN deal) by diluting subsequently. In return, they granted him all his comp packages without offering any resistance.
The BOD found out about this illegal arrangement and fired him. He then took it as an opportunity to notify these tutes that none of the licensing negotiations were advanced enough to be finalized right away, so they have one last chance to short the stock as much as they can, as he can be be of no further help.
Once the short tutes have covered, they and Dan will profit from this inside deal when the price is driven up. Also, any additional rewards will be deposited in Doc's offshore account in Luxembourg. The retail base will be none the wiser. Thanks for the opportunity to retrofit the events!
Oak, I am happy for any retail investor/trader who is able to see through this charade. It is intended solely to induce voluntary and involuntary selling. There is zero justification for this downturn, except to serve vested short interests who will eventually take this up with the same gusto.
Gantor, I have to admit that I'm surprised by the relentless push down too, with zero resistance from any long institution. But I have seen other bio stocks pushed down to ridiculous levels, although there was at least a plausible reason to do so in their cases (see Exact Sciences, EXAS, which was pushed down from 14 to 5 dollars even after the FDA approved their home based colonoscopy kit, Cologuard, in 2015 before it went to $40 subsequently).
I still think the end game will be that the short funds will cover almost entirely by the time ADXS announces an EU deal (now it's only a question of when, not if), leaving only the retail, hangers-on shorts in the lurch. It would be crazy to think that anyone really believes that ADXS should be trading here, let alone going down further.