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CLNE pattern breakout today, up 5%+
Huh?
Picassa, Don't try to figure it out. Take out the emotion (you'll know what I mean someday, don't worry).
Not all chart formations play out as hoped, and there are a LOT of reasons why. Too many possible reasons to even guess about.
That's why a trading plan involves stop-loss orders, and that's why a "trading plan" exists at all in the first place. It is a way to remove all the IFs. That way we know all possible outcomes for every trade before we enter. If we miss additional profits after we exit according to our plan... so what. Missed additional losses are part of the game, and are much better than losing original capital.
Picassa, Don't feel too bad. You could look at it this way... you needed to learn the lesson of ignoring the story or what you "think" should happen. Right? So, this stock has been a positive. Now you can begin your own formulation of a trading plan. Chipping away, no huge jackpot wins. That's the way to trade successfully. Other styles usually eventually take away your $$ unless a person is very savvy in their ways.
CLNE came a few cents from breakout today... might be worth keeping on watch. I'm seeing 14.85 area as breakout, but waiting for a closing price could be smart on this one.
icuc, GMR, I just entered early 1/2 a position size due to good volume, and since most of the hints point to strength right now. I'll complete my position most likely if it breaks above and stays above 4.50 level. It looked to me like your trendline was sloping down maybe a bit too much, so the trend break might be 4.50 area instead of 4.30's. I know there's a margin for interpretation and error, and we'd all have a slightly different trendline. I was using the candle tops for the two most recent highs.
icuc, GMR I see good entry possibly around 4.40, or do you think 4.50 as it breaks that resistance level would be better? First target for me would be 5.00 at resistance which is a nice 10% gain, then I'm not sure of target after that.
lowtrade, Have you cut my cord also, or can I still lean on you? :) lol
icucTrader, I agree with lowtrade, you're solid on your perspective.
Hi mtc, CLNE ascending triangle might be a good play soon. 14.80s entry area on resistance break. Target around 16.30 area based on the chart formation.
By the way... cool board, I enjoy browsing your scans. Thanks!
CLNE on watch, ascending triangle? Volume is declining nicely as the triangle forms. Sorry, I need to get with the program and start posting charts. Looks like around a 14.85 entry if the formation happens.
Anyone agree, disagree?
icuc, The water is warm, jump on in. lol Trading plan, chart pattern price calculations... plug nose, enter trade. haha
icuc, XSEL I exited at 2 levels today for a 17% gain on it overall. Great pattern play! :)
In the pinksheets, that's true! Other types, definitely sketchy nowadays but I don't think it qualifies as gambling or insanity if you have a well founded approach. It's as safe as... uhhhh, stateside jobs. Same same nowadays.
lastdog, Like I said, repeating the same mistakes over and over w/out learning from them is the definition of insanity (or corruption). In investing, it means ending up with an empty wallet.
onewho, FYI, main dilution did not happen a year ago. Surely you don't think that, since you're the one who's kind enough to keep track of the OS. 2010 has seen a lot of dilution. Can it be overcome? Sure, if current sales are legit and continue to increase. Simple as that. If the dilution continues, then something's up (or they'd better have something huge they're funding which will happen soon as a result).
lastdog, haha!! In investing, that's called insanity: repeating the same mistakes over and over.
icuc, I'd say definitely. 3 or 4 touches to the resistance line, and a 2 month old formation. If it goes much longer, it may be stale, but it still looks good right now to me. Wonder if low agrees with us...
trade, LOL! Are you holding 'pinksheet training class' today? :)
icuc, Thanks. You know the rules already, you find good picks, what else is there? Trading paralysis can be tough, but seems to me like you're already ready to do some trading.
Phx, I agree... good tactic. I use that method of profit protection a lot.
icuc, You going to get PMs again, or stick with a free account?
I'm still in. lol But I'm just not aiming for full target of .30 :)
icuc, I like to use a quicker trigger finger on low priced stocks if I have a good % gain already, as they seem more subject to schizo drops or insider games. I know they can also jump up more too, but 2/3 from my entry to target is my "real target" rather than using the full target from the chart.
icuc, IMO entry shouldn't have happened until at least .245, to confirm break of prior resistance or top line of the triangle. I made a mistake in my order type, so I got filled at .24 but luckily it as a beneficial mistake.
I'm still not 100% sure what my view is on buying breakouts... to wait for closing price, or not to wait and simply enter on price break like I was trying to do today.
Which do you prefer?
XSEL, Got in at .24. Target should be .30, but these low priced stocks are so wacky. I may not hold for target, this gain came so quick. Great chart find, thanks again!
SMT last week proved what can happen after a breakout day (ouch, that was a crazy crash!), although I took the fixed 5% loss and then re-entered and traded my way back to breakeven on it last week. Probably shouldn't have done that, though.
icucTrader, XSEL broke out nicely today. I got a lucky fill on it this morning - I typo'd but it went in my favor thankfully.
Great viewpoint, trade! I agree completely.
low, Good! Then I did as you would have... I watched the pullback, then I added some on the bounce off of the pullback as it broke a resistance level or trendline break. It didn't go up much after that, but I stuck to what I thought the method should be. So that's a plus. For a moment, I thought I did something that you thought was a bad decision!
low, BCSI, exited all at the same exact price I exited yesterday for 7%. So, as you suggested, my adding on the dip today (broke even on it) and holding past yesterday's 7% was a waste of thought, time, and commissions. lol
I'm happy with 7%, and leary of the long side of the market right now same as you are... so, I like your view better than mine. Thanks for the tips. I needed some practice on reading this stuff intra-trade. The 2nd half of a trade is my weakness, when to stay in past first target, when to get out of dodge, when to add or just sit tight.
Picassa, I'll pretend I'm lowtrade for a moment... STOP trying to "figure it out". You have to get over that hump of "thinking too much", and many of us have that same problem. Stocks & markets aren't required to make sense. Just play the chart, and exit when the chart looks Ok for an exit.
Try not to inject your thoughts about things too much such as "buying interest seemed strong at XYZ prices, so it should continue" and being confused when that doesn't happen. The chart said take gains at that level when it began to break down. Who knows why things happen: insiders, stock groups, shorting, retail mindset change, all sorts of reasons.
lowtrade, Thanks for the info. That makes more sense to me now, you're factoring in the market caution & also lowered your stops to -2.5%. I was hoping you'd say that, on both points. Whew. Means I am not lost regarding a trading plan formula.
About BCSI, why would we enter on pullback instead of continuation? If we enter on pullback then we don't have much idea of whether it'll just continue downwards... while entering on continuation might make the odds a little better?
I did adjust my target to today's high, though, a little earlier today since I added some on the dip. And like you said, I don't trust the market or this stock too much when looking at 5%+ gains already.
Still in BCSI with half, but added a few at 26.90 today when it broke that resistance level. Low volume today, not looking too strong.
Sorry, I meant SMT. I traded it after that crash yesterday, got in 12.69 got back out today at 13.20 on the breakdown.
If that's not a transfer agent error (have seen them give out different numbers by mistake on other penny stocks in the past - not this TA but some others) then it's good that they've bought back some shares!
low, I got out of BCSI at 13.20 as it broke that intraday support level from yesterday/today.
stogie, Of course it didn't. It could happen in any number of ways, or not happen in any number of ways. Hopefully the Mexican govt agency has clout or pushes the products on the list, since Nansulate is probably one of the cheaper & easier solutions on the list.
You sound less angry today. lol Did you look up those 3 summer 2009 sales/revenue PRs and compare it to the 2Q 2008 & 2009 filings to see if the PRs were accurate? What do you think of that, or does that not matter to you?
onewho, Just some math to keep in mind... they said $15M for the first 12 months of the Mexico sales, didn't they? Starting in July 2010.
That's $1.25M/month in sales. 4 months = $5M in sales by now.
Have they done that much, or did they razzle dazzle in that PR again? It better ramp up fast, if they were being truthful, because it seems like they're way behind schedule already.
But if the recent revenue PRs were true, then doing $2M in the 3Q is a great start even if it wasn't Mexico orders.
lowtrade, This question may sound silly, but why have you been exiting so many of your trades at 5% lately? Is it because of the state of the overall market such as the Dow or S&P daily chart looking toppy and acting choppy lately?
Or is it because of technical indicators and support/resistance causing you to exit? If so, don't those same factors always exist? Doesn't exiting at 5% corrupt your trading plan ratios, such that now a stopout is equal in size to a win?
Or is it simpler than that, in that you know the chart patterns make it so that your trades will win more often than they lose... so, even if your wins are = to your stopouts in size, you'll still win more often than you'll lose?
Seems like we can always come up with a chart or technical reason to exit somewhere during a move-up such as after a 5% gain, but what gives us confidence (or lack of) to stay in for 10%+? Faith in the chart patterns, or other reasons? And when to deviate from that and be more aggressive in exiting as you have lately?
low, Nice one. I sold 1/2 at 26.97, and have moved my stop to protect me at the 3% gain level on my remaining position in case it retraces significantly today.
I did get caught up in the SMT debacle this morning, though; didn't expect such a big crash after yesterday's breakout confirmation. I should have let the dust settle instead. But, exited 5% loss as planned and I've re-entered as it settled down. Will add to position to complete my usual sized position if it breaks 13 again today (so far, intraday ascending triangle breakout at that level).
I may qualify today with SMT as looking too hard, or maybe revenge trading, though. Hmmmm. Think so?
It sure is acting like a penny stock. Very weird crash today after such a big day yesterday. Maybe this stock is an insider play toy.