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I sold 2/3 of my dgaz AH. Was expecting a bit quicker drop in NG, so I'll wait and see if I can add back tomorrow at a better price. If not, I still have some skin in the game.
-Tim
Good call on that one too. You seem to do that a lot... :)
Best,
-Tim
Congrats, Wrinkles! Very nice job.
Are you thinking it will reverse and head higher if it doesn't break below 70? Or just being impatient? lol
-Tim
Agreed. If oil could make it down to 69.65 area today, I'll sell half and try to buy back in lower. Doesn't look likely though.
-Tim
I use henry hub since it is available in real time on tradingview. Futures data has 10 min delay.
tradingview.com/chart/ngas
It is currently about half a cent below current contract NG price.
Looking good now.
-Tim
Will see shortly. Bought some at 20 and added 19.66. Will stop out if NG hits 2.988. (Henry Hub price)
-Tim
NG is right in the zone i mentioned yesterday. I will prbbly pull the trigger shortly.
-Tim
Thank you. I just added at 5.80.
I generally also use the "basis" for charting and determining support/ resistance lines instead of the etf. Some of the etfs (nugt/jnug) use another as basis, so in that case I use gdx/gdxj instead of gld. Will still look at the gld chart but mainly the basis for picking entry.
-Tim
Do you have a target for exiting? I bought a little yesterday and was thinking about adding a bit more this morning but was a little late looking this morning, lol.
Thx,
-Tim
Good morning, Wrinkles. Thanks for the detailed comments about your strategy. This is a good reminder for me on something I know I need to work on--discipline and following my own rules. I'm getting better at it but it takes a constant reminder, so THANK YOU.
Might I suggest that you sticky this? It's great basic info that's good to have available without digging. I will probably print it off when I get home, but others might find it helpful also. Obviously disregard if it's a hassle or you don't want to clutter the board with very basic stuff, but I find this type of reminder to be invaluable.
Best,
-Tim
Thanks for you thoughts and the link. You're awesome!
-Tim
Looking at an entry on dgaz when ng hits about 2.955-2.960 (Henry Hub). This is on a resistane trend line that started May 2017 (broken once early this yr but the same basic line has continued to serve as resistance since then, with reversals in June and Aug). Thoughts?
-Tim
Thanks so much Wrinkles. Im really impressed with this board. I haven't seen as helpful of an attitude on others on ihub and often it's just a lot of one-upmanship with just one or two posters that provide periodic helpful comments. I'll be watching the video you sent tonight. Very much appreciated!
-Tim
I see you did already. I'll have to make it a ha it to read thru all the posts before I respond to anything.
Glad you like it!
-Tim
I have never experienced this with tradingview. Set up a free account and give it a try!
I use tradingview.com. I think it uses the same platform for the graphs as investing.com, at least it looks quite similar to charts you have posted. You should be able to set up a free account. I have used it for a few years and really like it. You can search on functions to add to your charts and there are a lot of user-created functions from other users in addition to the built in functions. You can also program your own if you are so inclined. Very complete.
With the free membership, I think you are limited to something like 5-8 functions (MAs, RSI, MACD, etc.) that you can plot on a single chart. Adding to that number requires a paid membership. You can also save different views with different functions included, but the number is again limited for the free account. They have changed the policy over time, so I don't know what the limits are now. Anyway, it's pretty flexible and has many features, so I would definitely recommend it if you are doing a lot of charting and want more than just very basic options.
-Tim
Thx, Sendme. You seem to have a system that works well for you. I haven't been consistent and I'll be up one day and then I'll make a stupid trade and ride what was a winner way to long and lose all the profits. I'm trying to learn some techniques that can yield consistent wins. I'm hoping to read up on others strategies and incorporate things that work (not to complicated) into my trades.
-Tim
Thanks for the welcome, Wrinkles. Looking forward to catching up. I already saw you have a ton of posts, all with great info. I'm feeling very lucky to have found the board, with the very generous posters.
-Tim
Hi all,
I recently found this board and see there is a lot of discussion and sharing of ideas on etfs related to gold/silver, oil and ng, which are some of my regular trades. I just wanted to say hi since I plan to follow the board regularly now that I found it. I probably won't contribute too much to the board since I don't have time at work to follow the market all day, but thought I'd let you know I'm here anyway.
Happy trades!
-Tim
Wow, holy s$*t.
I took a look and saw $27s on xiv. I have no experience with this kind of AH plunge w a big etf like this. Is this a buy all you can get moment, or get out of the way cause it's going to zero?
Any advice? I bought some, but thinking I should pull all stops. Not even close to same change on other vix related products!
Hi Kam,
I check the forum only occasionally, but I noticed you haven't posted in quite a while. I hope you are doing well and that your absence was for a vacation or just to get away for a while.
What is your take on oil these days? WTI has been very strong over the last several months. Nearly a straight line up since September!. It seems to me like we're due (or overdue) for a reversal, but I've been expecting that for some time... Is your time machine still working ok?
Best regards,
-Tim
Crude -5.7M, sorry for typo/dyslexia
Crude -7.5 M
Gasoline +0.9
Distillates +0,5
Propane -0.1
Ok, thanks.
There's about 0.30 contango right now between Nov/Dec contracts. Isn't this normally favorable to dwt after the contract roll? Not sure I understand your caution about tomorrow.
-Tim
Hey Kam,
What is your expectation at this stage? Do you think there is high probability for a strong down leg? Or do you not have much bias either way?
If we can break below 50.15, then I can easily see a drop into the lower 49s or even a bit below, but I don't have a lot of conviction that we're not headed higher either. Have you fired up your time machine recently?
Thanks,
-Tim
Could you explain what you mean by "destroyed the buying pattern system?" I'd like to believe that it's going back down, but if we close above 51, I'm thinking it is more likely that we go higher before lower.
Thanks,
-Tim
Yeah, looks like I was expecting a bit much. I was hoping there would be a real fast retrace to higher resistance levels then continuation downward. It doesn't seem to be in the cards for today though. I still have some D and a small put position in uco, but would like to add some back if there is a good setup.
Thx,
-Tim
It looks more like the bounce scenario to me. I could see a quick bounce to either 50.20 or up to 50.5x, then I think it turns again for next leg down. I'll prbbly be buying back more D at those levels.
Happy trades,
-Tim
Thanks, kam. I did roll some forward into next week. I had >7x gains, but I bought a single position back. I have not done very well with options in the past, so I would rather take the cash and start another small trade than move the full $ amt forward. I also tend to trade within the middle range relative to vwap/vwma, so when it gets to the +/-mpd levels, this is where I generally take my profits. I leave money on the table this way sometimes when a longer drop or rise takes place, but it seems to work ok and I don't have better indicators/criteria that I have found work consistentky to determine buys/sells other than general support/resistance and trendlines. Still learning but not enough time to put it all into practice and stay on top of things. Sigh...
Are you holding puts that have an expiry further out or keeping it short term for the addl leverage?
Thanks,
-Tim
Wow! Nice drop this morning. I have some uco puts that I will be cashing in and will probably take some off the table from my dwt as well. Looks like we could go further but we are hitting lower levels of vwma-mpd on 4hr and daily charts, so caution dictates at least cutting back a bit here.
I have been swamped at work recently so not following too closely. Hope everyone on the board was able to catch this correction for profitable trades!
-Tim
Ok, thx. Please let us know what you see in the cards, i.e. after your trip in the time machine. :)
-Tim
Do you still think it's headed considerably lower after the break above the long term downtrend line and July highs?
Thanks, kam. I'll watch for the big dump this afternoon! Have a great weekend.
-Tim
Thanks, pleebs. Still holding for now.
-Tim
Dwt 28.5? Thanks.
Are you expecting more downside, kam? Have any targets for today and next week?
Thanks,
-Tim
Thanks. I was trying to decide if I should hold and look for a more sustained drop, even over a couple days. Decided I don't want to hold over the weekend and may be away from the computer this afternoon so I will likely sell it here shortly. I think there will likely be more downside, but hopefully I'll get a chance to to buy back dwt after a bounce on Monday morning.
Have a good weekend!
-Tim
Nice little drop there. What is your target for wti on your short trade?
I also bought some dwt after the eia report and am holding overnight. The 49.50 level has some relatively strong resiatance, and if we go there I will add but with a tight stop. The technicals say lower, but with multiple hurricanes in play who knows what to expect. If it doesn't start to turn lower tomorrow I will step aside and wait it out. Strange time.
My father in law lives in central Florida. He was planning to leave the state but found out there are 1000s of people with cars stopped along the highway--no more gas available for anyone to leave! Once refineries are all back online, I bet wti will run as they catch up with gasoline shortages. Prices at the pump are up over 50 cents in TN. I expect it will go up quite a bit more as Irma moves this way early next week.
I mentioned GUSH as a play on oil services last week. It's up over 20% since Harvey.
Good luck.
-Tim