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That's a great report, Toast!
I also recall some months back where folks were posting about currently operating Li battery powered container ships. The additional demand for Li from all of these revolutionary, and green, changes is going to be nothing short of amazing in the next 10 years!
Go LAC longggg!!!
GLTA and regards, G8tr
Nowhat, I'm experiencing more than "difficulties" ...
with your negative (as usual when it comes to anything related to LAC's success) opinion because, um, how should I put this? Ah, how about -- it's myopic, simplistic and incredibly short-sighted to simply dismiss Cormark's target PPS and Cormark as analysts, when it's only June 1st and LAC has had a very successful 12 month trading period. Yes, I think that covers it. Self evident, really.
Why are you experiencing such "difficulties" with that?
Thanks Toast, I read it and ...
"stoked" they should be!
I previously posted excerpts from an article about heavy equipment being used in underground mining all going electric for the obvious benefit of eliminating fumes in the shafts. The list of Li uses is seemingly endless. Just this morning, I was watching a television ad for personal home generators for installation now that hurricane season is here (I live in Miami) and thought how obsolete they are when a Tesla Power Wall storage battery will power my entire home without the need for electricity.
GLTA and regards, G8tr
Nowhat, reading your posts once is enough, thanks.
But why are you basing your negative Cormark opinion on LAC's "past performance," when, over the last year, LAC's performance has been excellent? Isn't what you're really saying is that you wouldn't "trust [Cormark's] analysis (based on [recent] past performace"? If so, fine, but it seems to me that your analysis of Cormark's analysis is short-sighted, at best, for the reasons I stated, which you didn't address.
So, if I have to choose between Cormark's $10.23 U.S. pick and yours (whatever that is, which you haven't made clear -- care to?), I'd have to go with Cormark.
GLTA, G8tr
Jet, a Canadian $13.25 ($10.23 U.S.) price target ...
sounds good/reasonable to me, particularly considering that LAC is not yet in production (as discussed in my last post re Nowhat's negative opinion on Cormark).
My sense is that some folks here can't ( or won't) see the incredible strides that LAC has made over the last 5 years, probably because they weren't invested in and trading LAC during that time, but have become involved with LAC more recently. That's part of the difference between investing and trading, the former takes the long view, which requires patience, while the latter is easily frustrated by temporary setbacks because it impedes their ability for a quick score. Of course, you know all of this, as you and I have both traded and invested in LAC over a number of years. The trick is, like Kenny Rogers sings, "you gotta know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em." I don't trade LAC as much as I once did because my purpose in doing so was to get enough ahead of the game to own my LAC shares free and clear and make a bit on the side for other investments. Right now, I'm where I wanted to be regarding that strategy and would no doubt end up kicking myself for selling too soon if I divested my LAC shares now, so I'm just holding and waiting for the bangs to come (and smiling).
GLTA and regards, G8tr
Am I reading your chart incorrectly, Nowhat?
The orange line begins last July at 4.0, right?
It then goes up to a titch above 6.5 as of now, right?
Now I'm not sure what the 4.0 and 6.5 mean (please advise), but it appears that, if LAC went up from 4.0 to 6.5 (as your orange line indicates) then LAC went UP 2.5, which is an INCREASE of approx. 62.5% in that span, right?
So, if I'm correct in reading your chart, and it reflects an approx. 62.5% INCREASE in the last year, then where is your dissatisfaction with Cormark, who "don't seem like very good analysts to [you]," coming from? Is it because they rated LAC their "Top Pick" and you think that a "Top Pick" should do better than a 62.5% annual gain?
If so, I respectfully disagree, considering that: 1) LAC is not yet producing and loses money and will continue to do so until it starts producing; and 2)the year is not even half over, so there's still plenty of room for LAC to run (particularly, given that the SP is likely to be stongly supported by the PFS later this month and by other positive news (both from LAC and the lithium sector in general) with the timeline shortening until LAC begins production in 2020).
But maybe I'm just misapprehending your chart and orange line. Am I?
If it goes to $4s, I'll be ...
... happily buying!
GLTA and Regards, G8tr
Great posts, Jet!
Between this one, and your "the headline says it all," I have no doubt that, even when LAC gets production up to 50,000 tpa, there will be plenty of waiting buyers! Buckle up all; it's going to be fun ride!
LAC longggggg!!!
I hope you do the SQM call, Jet.
I would, but am slammed with two of my own conference calls and a meeting this afternoon. I look forward to hearing your take on SQM, which has been in a bit of a slump of late.
Regards, G8tr
The news just gets better and better, Jet!
Thanks for posting that link and also for big institutional investor news!
GLTA and Regards, G8tr
Jet, I'm way behind on my posts.
Can you please tell me which is the one you posted with the audio re the big buyer? Thanks.
Regards, G8tr
Does this mean you bought ...
another 400 shares, Nowhat?
I hope so. Time for you to get some skin in the game and back your predictions. Or do you still not have "an ounce" of faith in LAC?
Short on, dude. I bet you can't wait to sell. Some people never learn.
GLTA and go LAC longgggg!!! G8tr
P.S. Did you ever consider that there might be a very good reason for the all the "Long-Term-Buy and Holders"? Do some more DD and you might find out (although, God knows if you haven't figured it out yet, with all the great DD postings in here, well ... sometimes even a blind squirrel finds and acorn and sometimes he don't.
Just got back from a long weekend, Jet
and am finally caught up on emails/posts. Your posts regarding the dramatic increase in buying LAC shares by institutional investors is great news indeed! To be honest, I expected it (as I know you did), but the volume is higher and it has started in a substantial way sooner than I expected! Great stuff!
GLTA and regards, G8tr
Nice post KS.
Looks like we're about $1.250M and a completed PFS away from starting to really run with Nevada. IMHO that's coming and coming fast!!
Go LAC longgggg!!
Regards, G8tr
Also from today's WSJ ...
"China Won't Be Able To Dominate Lithium Mining Forever"
Excerpts from article on page B12, Business & Finance:
* Rising prices for a key commodity, high-tech industries fretting, and behind it all China, buying up supplies. If this sounds familiar, it should. Since emerging as an industrial superpower in the 2000s, China has repeatedly tried to lock up essential resources like iron ore and so-called rare earths. The latest example is lithium;
* Global supplies are tight -- prices roughly doubled between early 2016 and late 2017;
* China sees battery metals as key to its future, so deal financing will likely be plentiful. Rivals without cheap state-backed funds will find it hard to compete for companies with existing projects. The solution is obvious: develop new mines; and
* If lithium prices remain near current heady levels, the wait probably won't be all that long.
IMHO, eventually supply will probably eclipse demand in the Li market, as new mines continue to go into production, but that is well down the road and there will be plenty of time in the interim to make a nice profit as LAC, one of the most promising front-runner juniors, kicks into production and ramps up to 50,000 tpa of Li. Of course, that's just my opinion, I could be wrong, but I've already bought my ticked and I'm definitely taking this ride.
Goooo LAC longgggg!!!
GLTA and Regards, G8tr
"3 lines working together" caused LAC's rally ...
Righttttt ...
Or, it could be something like ...
"A Hunger for Lithium Juices Deals"
Excerpts from this article on page B1 of Business & Finance from today's WSJ (I know it's DD, which you eschew Nowhat, but give it a read anyway):
* Tesla's and Tianqi Lithium's respective recent deals with lithium producers are "the latest sign that big users are rushing to secure supplies of the material used in electric-car and cellphone batteries;
* Both lithium and cobalt, which is also used in these batteries, face potential shortages in the years ahead as electric-vehicle use increases;
* That concern is driving a number of companies like technology firms and car makers reliant on lithium and cobalt to strike deals now, even if it means joining with suppliers that have yet to start producing;
* In addition to the sector's dominant players, analysts estimate that there are more than 100 smaller lithium miners and about 25 cobalt firms. Many are publicly traded in Canada and Australia and some have already clinched deals with big users. "It just looks like we're on the precipice of this wave," said Chris
Berry, founder of House Mountain Partners LLC, a New York-based adviser to battery-metals companies and investors. "You're going to need a lot of investment in a hurry to meet demand."
* Japan's Softbank Group Corp. last month paid nearly $80 Million for a roughly 10% stake in Nemaska Lithium Inc., a Quebec-based producer. It marked Softbank's first investment in a lithium company. Nemaska has produced just small samples of lithium compounds at this point, and its mine and plant are expected to be fully operational in the second half of 2019;
* The trading arm of Toyota Group, the parent company of Toyota Motor Corp., also said in January that it was taking a 15% stake in Australian lithium firm Orocobre Ltd., for roughly $225 Million;
* Because most investors looking for exposure to cobalt and lithium take positions in mining companies, analysts said the recent share-price declines reflect uncertainty about which ones will end up on top and the risk still involved in the fledgling market; and
* Analysts expect demand for the materials used o power electric vehicles and smart phones to more than double by 2025, pushing transportation and technology companies into exploring unconventional deals to meet that pressing need.
IMHO, given the obvious trends, it's only a matter of time (not if, but when) before LAC, the largest lithium holder in the U.S. and well on its way to production in Argentina, strikes its own deals with one or more "big users rushing to secure supplies" of Li.
GLTA, G8tr
It's more like "Admiral Hindsight" at this point.
But your point is certainly well-taken Intel.
GLTA and Regards, G8tr
Your technical terms are self-contradictory, Nowhat.
First you say "It was Whoosh!" But in the next breath you say "It suddenly became Ka-whoosh." If you're going to toss around that kind of technical analysis jargon in your posts, please be more precise.
GLTA, G8tr
To paraphrase the Bard ...
"There are more things in heaven and earth, [Nowhat], than are dreamt of in your [highly questionable charts]."
GLTA, G8tr
The future is now, Jet!
All of this news is great for LAC and the lithium sector in general, as born out by the first 30 minutes of trading today and the entire lithium gang going bananas (with the exception of LAC, which is sitting on the bench and taking a breather - flat - after the amazing gains of the last two days)!!
I hope these gains hold for the rest of the day.
GLTA and regards, G8tr
Jet, "far more than the financials" ...
may be a bit of an understatement, given that we're now up more than 21% in the last two trading days, and this coming on an unremarkable quarterly report where we lost $4.4 million and only had $1.1 million in revenue.
The problem is that we don't know what we don't know. But I'd love to know and there is definitely something going on behind the scenes.
I'm also curious about the insiders' trading activities, but haven't had time to investigate further on that.
Maybe it's the Chinese/strategic metals/national security concern; maybe it's the PFS getting closer; maybe it's SQM starting to take off too; maybe it's the whole sector starting to heat up again; and maybe it's a combination of one, more or all of these factors? Or maybe that Giga deal is in the works and the smart money is getting in fast? One thing is for sure, it's definitely far more than the financials.
Maybe I missed it, but in my more than 6 years as a shareholder, I've never seen a two-day uptick like this one. It is getting very interesting (not to mention fun!).
GLTA and Regards, G8tr
LAC, the purported "very unreliable corporation," just posted
A 12% GAIN TODAY!!
ON THE HEELS OF A MORE THAN 9% GAIN YESTERDAY!!
BETTER THAN 21% GAIN IN THE LAST TWO DAYS!!
UP 32.81% IN THE LAST 5 TRADING DAYS!!
UP 26.79% IN THE LAST MONTH!!
Now that's the kind of "unreliability" I like!
GO LAC LONGGGGG!!!
GLTA, G8tr
Yeah Doc; Good to see you back!
I figured you were out shopping in the Med for the yacht you're going to buy with your LAC profits! Regards, G8tr
Too bad, Nowhat, because I wanted to ...
thank you for driving the LAC PPS price up. I remember your post telling me that you "save a bundle" by "not buying whilst the price is trending down." So I figure, now that LAC is trending UP, you must be buying up a storm!
LAC longs rule! Shorts, not so much.
GLTA
Further to my post re LAC's JV Partner
SQM
After reading the article below, it's not hard to envision both the auto manufacturing industry and the U.S. Government scrambling to work with LAC, as the largest Li holder in the U.S. If ensuring a secure and robust supply of domestic Li hasn't already become a strategic national security issue, it is rapidly becoming one. There is no way that the West will simply concede this game to the Chinese. With geo-political forces at play, in addition to the usual macro and micro economic dynamics, LAC is about to get really interesting (read: profitable for shareholders). Of course, that's just my opinion, I could be wrong. Anyway, I hope you enjoy the article.
BREAKINGVIEWS-China's Chile deal highlights a battery dilemma
6:50 AM ET, 05/16/2018 - Reuters
(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own. Adds graphic.)
By Clara Ferreira-Marques
SINGAPORE, May 16 (Reuters Breakingviews) - China's latest resources gambit highlights a battery ingredient dilemma. Tianqi Lithium is set to buy a stake in $14.9 billion Chilean giant Sociedad Quimica y Minera. That suggests local worries about Beijing's excessive control over the metal's supply have eased. Still, if approved, the deal would hamper resource-rich nations’ scope to push back.
Tianqi, an ambitious Shenzhen-listed producer, has been circling SQM since 2016, but its bid for Canadian firm Nutrien's roughly 30 percent stake hit a roadblock in March. Two days before President Sebastián Piñera took office, the government asked regulators to block a sale, arguing it would "gravely distort market competition". If Tianqi’s deal goes through, it would imply a softening of stance.
SQM is getting a decent deal: at the reported 22 percent premium to the market price, Tianqi is paying almost 44 times expected earnings for a 24 percent stake, compared to SQM's already-rich 30 times. Yet the concerns expressed in March are not unfounded.
China Inc has moved swiftly to secure supply of ingredients to feed a strategic battery industry. The boss of top cobalt producer Glencore - who sold a chunk of output to China's GEM in March - has warned the Western car industry it is waking up "too late". As well as mines at home, Tianqi controls the giant Greenbushes mine in Australia, run with U.S. partner Albemarle. It also has processing facilities, and a partnership to invest in lithium-ion batteries.
One answer to China's growing clout would be for the countries that control the resources to club together to balance that out, with a coordinated approach rather than individual sabre-rattling. There are reasons for that to work: cobalt and lithium, two key ingredients, are highly concentrated. In lithium specifically, Australia and Chile together accounted for three-quarters of 2017 global production. An OPEC-style model has been floated sporadically around the 'lithium triangle': Bolivia, Chile and Argentina.
Yet an “OLEC” also faces big challenges. Instead of an Aramco <IPO-ARMO.SE> of lithium there are private companies, which might attract antitrust attention and complicate disciplined output cuts. The bigger issue is China, increasingly a behemoth on both the producer and the consumer side of the fence. Insufficient domestic production is increasing, but bold bets like SQM spread out supply risk further. China may already be too big to stop.
Getting Noticed By The Big Boys ...
As most folks know, LAC has been a staple in the portfolio of LIT ETF (Global X Lithium Battery & Technology) (.91%) for some time.
The following ETFs also now hold LAC in their portfolios:
1. VanEck Vectors Rare Earth/ Strategic Metals (REMX) (5.47%);
2. iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers (PICK) (.04%);
3. Innovation Shares NextGen Vehicles and Technology (EKAR) (.03%); and
4. SPDR S&P International Small Cap (.02%).
IMHO this is a direct and proximate result of the NYSE listing and LAC's impressive potential as a short term Li producer of up to 50,000 tpa.
IMHO this trend will likely continue with more ETFs picking up LAC and with those already holding LAC in their portfolios increasing the percentage held.
GLTA and regards, G8tr
Lol! But Jet, don't forget the "Blue Oval."
Barzini was a pimp. He never coulda outfought Santino. But I never knew it was the Blue Oval all along, until now.
And besides that, there was the not knowing that the quarterly reports come out, um, quarterly. Because if he had known that the quarterly report, which comes out quarterly, would show a $4 Million plus loss, he would have definitely predicted a 9% plus uptick.
And besides that, there was a full moon in China, which no doubt affected the Hang Seng index, which, as we all know full well, predetermines the fate of LAC share prices.
OMG! I'm laughing so hard here I'm cryin'!! I'm seriously thinking about writing a sitcom loosely based on this hub.
GLTA and regards, G8tr
Probably a good idea to keep that disclaimer
for ALL your charts, Nowhat.
That way, you can't ever be wrong - right?
BTW, did you ever provide the % that you believe your charts to be accurate? Just wonderin'; dying to see it.
GLTA, G8tr
New Development With LAC JV Partner, SQM!
SQM announced that Tianqi, a Chinese company banned by the Chilean govt. from purchasing SQM shares directly, will purchase a 24% stake in SQM for $4.3 Billion, the shares coming from Nutrien, Ltd., which is required to sell its SQM shares soon as part of its purchase agreement.
SQM, which is known as the world's most efficient producer of Li (and it presumably sharing its knowledge/expertise with LAC, thus reducing risk at LAC's Argentina operation), had a market value of approximately $14.8 Billion at yesterday's close.
Like LAC, SQM has been rallying and was UP 2.04% today, UP 8.18% for the last 5 days, and UP 9.72% for the last month.
Nothing like running with a winner!
Go LAC longggg!
GLTA and regards, G8tr
Wooweeeee, Nowhat! When you mess it up ...
you mess it up BIG!
LAC "selling off" and "forming Head-Clonk Number Four" today?
Uhhhh, NOPE!
According to Schwab:
*LAC UP today 9.49% (I think I made more $$ today on LAC than I made in my first year out of college), on twice the usual volume;
LAC UP 18.11% over last 5 trading days;
LAC UP 14.72% over the last month; and
LAC UP 50.16% over the last year.
By way of comparison:
S&P US Materials only up 1.49% over last month and 12.28% over last year;
Long term, Jet ...
I wouldn't bet against either team.
Regards, G8tr
"LARGEST LI RESOURCE IN THE U.S."
Oh, I do like the sound of that! It sings doesn't it?
Go LAC longgggg!!
GLTA and regards, G8tr
I'd be there in a heartbeat KS.
If I didn't have an impossible business conflict. And, like you, I'm hoping Jet can make it and be our inside man for this important event.
GLTA and LAC longgggg!!!
Jet, LAC is not just different ...
from when we bought in; it's a much sounder enterprise with much less risk and a much shorter time frame to production, very substantial revenues, substantial profits and big time PPS (and I know you know all of this, but I'm writing for newcomers). The DD was good back then, but now it's wayyyy better and IMHO you are spot on about LAC being a long term bargain at the current PPS. Watching LAC unfold into a major Li producer over the next 20 months is going to be a lot of fun.
GLTA and regards, G8tr
Lol! That's exactly when you do buy!
BTFD!
And duly noted that you won't step up to the plate and offer what you contend to be your accuracy % since you started posting charts here. So be it. But don't expect folks to take you seriously when you won't even man up on your own charting.
GLTA! G8tr
How do you "save yourself a bundle," Nowhat?
By not buying when the PPS is down? I think even you would agree with my advice of "buy low; sell high" (I wish I could say that I invented that one, but someone, probably Buffett, beat me to it). Anyway, I tried it with LAC and it worked like a charm. I bought low (sometimes very low) and sold high and made a nice nickel, which I plowed back in to LAC, repeating the process, again, and again, and again. Son of a gun if every time I did that, I didn't make more money. Go figure huh? So, today, I hold many thousands of shares, all paid for by profits from that incredible system, Why, there was even enough in extra profits to go our and buy more stocks in the Li sector and elsewhere (you see, I also read something somewhere about it being a good idea to diversify one's holdings, and -- you guessed it -- that seems to work pretty well too). So, I don't get all worked up when the market, the lithium sector, and LAC are all down a bit after a huge year last year and especially when my DD tells me that LAC has a very positive future (IMHO). Nope, I now have enough free shares of LAC accumulated, so I don't need to BTFD anymore and can just sit back and laugh at short seller wannabees (like you, maybe?). Go for it if that's your thing, but IMHO, you'll be sorry in the long run as LAC is a gem and will only continue to inexorably climb in progress, revenue, profits and, naturally, PPS.
And the other tried and true maxim that you seem unable, or unwilling, to grasp is that one cannot lose any money on a stock unless, and until, one sells said stock. Hence the need to have the best DD possible in order to predict the most likely future PPS scenario. But, unfortunately, you (by your own admission) eschew DD and instead rely solely on charts, which in turn, rely solely on past performance. But, and here is the obvious rub, as you have pointed out "past performance is no guarantee of future results." So your system is an inherent contradiction and fundamentally flawed.
And, in closing, while you take umbrage with Jet's 90% to 91% estimate of your charting inaccuracy, you have never (as far as I know, but I might've missed one of your posts) gone on record with what you believe your charting batting average is since you first graced our humble hub -- i.e. what charting accuracy % do you ascribe to your efforts? C'mon, inquiring (and slightly deranged) minds wanna know! Please enlighten us and we'll start checking on a going forward basis to see if you're right.
GLTA and LAC longggggg!!! G8tr
Kinda sounds like a frustrated rant, Nowhat.
The repetitive part especially. Maybe your short strategy hasn't been working out?
Which wouldn't be surprising because, after all (according to Schwab):
LAC was UP .92% at the close of trading on Friday;
LAC was UP 3.8% over the last five trading days;
LAC is UP 49.88% over the last year;
LAC is UP 56.29% over the last three years; and
LAC is UP 561.03% over the last five years (back when JET, I and others here did a lot of buying).
And all of this positive traction comes with LAC not yet mining a spoonful of Li and not yet making a profit! You don't need a chart to see what the future holds when LAC's Li production nears, begins and increases up to 50,0000 tpa. Can you say "exponential PPS increases"? And,IMHO, the PFS next month is yet another harbinger of all of that and more. So, forgive those of us who are excited about such a positive development and go ahead and do your best to put a negative spin on it. Rant on, if it floats your boat, but, again IMHO, you might want to rethink your short strategy and adjust your charting so that it shows what actually occurred, i.e. a temporary downward adjustment/correction in the overall market, the lithium sector and in LAC PPS. The key word being "temporary" and the upward tics have started, again, and will continue, IMHO.
GLTA and gooooo LAC longgggggg!!
It's out of character for LAC to promote.
So, I think that LAC already has a pretty good idea that the PFS will be a very positive development, one that can be monetized sooner rather than later. I'm very pumped (no pun intended) about it and hope that you and others can attend.
GLTA and regards, G8tr
The NV Conference is definitely Sticky Note worthy.
I hope as many folks as possible attend on 6/26. I'd be there for sure, but have an unbreakable business commitment. Enjoy and I look forward to hearing the great Intel I know you'll come back with.
Regards,G8tr
Jet, that LAC Field Trip looks fascinating.
I hope you attend. I'd go myself, but have a business trip planned for Manhattan that week. Check with your accountant, as you may be able to write it off. I'm looking forward to hearing your observations/take on LAC's Nevada project.
GLTA and regards, G8tr