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I agree with you bull. Now the bid is 0.571, and people are still selling into it. Makes no sense.
Not sure I understand all of the talk about getting off the OTC. Where are we supposed to go then? To get on the Nasdaq, there are significant qualification requirements that we don't come close to meeting, including revenue and profit requirements as well as a $4.00 stock price and at least 3 market makers.
After all of the complaints over the last reverse split, I can't believe there is any appetite here for another one. But that's the only way I can see that we could possibly begin to meet Nasdaq qualification requirements. There would still be work to do after that, assuming we could hold a post split price over $4.00 long enough to get it done.
I kind of feel a little bit like I got kicked in the nuts. Overall market is flat today, but everything I own is down. Great news from Capstone and very positive on the call, but down too.
I agree that the increased volume is positive, and the recent price growth is great. I agree that slow is better than volatile. Overall, I'm happy with what's going on with CAPC. But I still don't like today's reaction to the news.
Yes, I was definitely wrong about the volume, but not the price.
Earnings are out now, so let's see tomorrow.
My bet would be that volume will remain muted today (compared to recent days), with the price slightly down at the end. A few people making the wrong bet about the earnings, and a few people willing to pick up those shares.
Tomorrow though, I think we will see another spike in both volume and price. How big depends on the numbers.
So this gives me a new opportunity to discuss my pet peeve, the web site(s).
That graphic that you pasted into your post looks great. But I've been to most of these stores trying to find Capstone product (Hoover and Duracell branded as well), and can find none in any store that I have visited. During the last Christmas season, I did find one product at Home Depot, and I bought it. Can't find it in the store now. Can't find Capstone products on these store's web sites either.
I know that Costco does carry the products that have been highlighted by several members here, but I don't shop there, so I haven't personally seen them. However, I do know that those products are sold in my local store.
In any event, I have a real problem with the company advertising that their products are available in all of these places, when it is apparently not true. Maybe this is a problem only in my local area, but I would think that if the products were actually sold at these stores, the store web sites would have them. I wish the company would either get the product into these stores, or remove the stores from the web site.
Also, while I'm on my rant, Uranium posted a nice list of positive features of Capstone, that included the web site. The web site in that post is the corporate, Capstone Companies web site, which is actually relatively nice. However, it does not link to the Capstone Industries site that shows all of the products and contains the aforementioned list of stores. So, for one thing, I think that is a mistake. The corporate web site should direct you to the brand web site. But more importantly, the brand web site sucks. It is really terrible. It needs to be completely torn down and re-written from scratch. And when it's done, the "where to buy" page should only show stores where you actually CAN buy.
Yes, I did miss it. Scottrade still has a link to the original filing that didn't include the financials. Thanks for correcting me on that.
I've reviewed the amended 10-K, and I definitely feel a lot better now. However, the gain on change in fair market value of derivative liabilities was a significant factor in the favorable performance for FY16, $489K. That won't repeat in future periods. They also had a significant gain on forgiveness of debt, $188K, which isn't likely to repeat either. In reality, they had a significant operating loss for the year, but made it up with these one-time other income items.
So, looking forward, I'm not really confident that they have a handle on operating performance. Hopefully the operating loss for 2016 is just growing pains. If the growth continues at the 2016 rate, some of that should fall to the bottom line, and we might be OK.
Anyway, even though I'm hoping for the stock price to increase, I'm still not convinced that it is currently under valued.
What exactly makes you think this stock is undervalued? Here's how I see it:
- The company can't seem to provide an annual report of earnings for FY16.
- For FY15, they had losses.
- Based on the first three quarters of FY16, they show good top line growth, but still have a YTD loss.
I think, rather than buying back shares, Brian needs to prioritize reporting financials on time, and maybe getting out of the red sometime soon.
The weird thing to me about the ask is that the sell order has been sitting there for quite a while. I'm surprised the seller hasn't canceled or revised it, but I'm also surprised that someone hasn't grabbed it up.
Since we seem to be feeling positive on the board, and compliments are flying, here's my two cents.
I would like to congratulate this board and it's participants, not because CAPC has had a good run over the last two days, but because the board itself is useful and constructive. A lot of boards I follow contain mostly single phrase posts, sometimes snide, sometimes insulting to prior posters, rarely helpful. On this board, we actually have conversations about the subject company. People share their opinions, and we don't always agree. But we are civil for the most part, and inclusive. This is my favorite place to come on ihub, even when I have nothing to say.
Happy about CAPC's performance the last two days as well.
Was off line over the weekend, and just caught up on all of the messages in here.
Seems like the excitement has worn off from the post 10-K activity. A couple of positive posts, but mostly people seem to be down on CAPC's progress.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think we are up 18% YTD, while the DOW is up 4% and the Nasdaq is up 10% (not counting today's activity, looks like a good day on the overall market). Even though I want the price to climb faster, my feeling is that the current growth path is acceptable, as long as it continues over a longer period. I agree with several recent posts that some positive news would be welcome.
Regarding selling the company, I'm still against it. I think a valuation of the company would result in a buy-out price that would be disappointing to long term shareholders. If I were preparing an offer to buy CAPC, the very highest price I could come up with would be $1.41, and that includes a substantial premium based on future outlook. I would give that price as an absolute ceiling, but would not want to approach it in an actual deal. A more realistic valuation based on actual performance would only come in at $0.85. Based on outlook, I could see a final price somewhere in between those two numbers. Not good enough in my opinion as a shareholder.
This is a great point, running bull. Any positive news that might be released today would help keep the momentum going. They certainly know what the sales were for Q1 and what the backlog is for Q2. They could give us some kind of hint, and that might push some fence sitters in the right direction.
Uranium, I'm guessing that you are referring to the post I made earlier regarding ELED. That post was in response to a post from traderbbc1, who did reference the ticker symbol.
Since the posts on this board plainly indicate if a post is in response to another post, and provides a link to that post, it didn't occur to me that I should restate traderbbc1's comments.
However, as soon as my post posted, I realized that it might be confusing, and that a cursory glance at the post might give the impression that I was referring to CAPC. I apologize if this was the case here.
This is a very small company. They haven't reported FY16 numbers yet, but their total revenue through Q3 was only $340K. The best year they've ever had was only $760K in 2014, and they've never made a profit. Market cap is only $4M.
However, their stock price is up over 1200% YTD, all on some huge trades over the last 6 days. Can't find any news, so I don't know why the price is spiking, and I don't know anything about their story.
These guys filed a notification of late filing for their FY16 10-K. I wonder why they were unable to complete their financials on time.
Looks like they did the same thing the last two years also. File the notification on 3/30, then file the 10-K on 4/15. Maybe this is standard operating procedure for them, but I would think that they would want to get their act together at some point.
The activity on this stock has nearly ceased. I'm hoping for a bounce once the FY16 financials are released, but I'm not sure anyone will notice or care based on recent activity.
Today's activity makes me wish I had more shares! I hope this is the start of a trend, and not a momentary blip.
Yes, it is an interesting technology. The LED lights need so little power that the power can be provided by your internal LAN over the ethernet cable. Now the lights are wired into your LAN, so you can control them via software.
Unfortunately, no one made my day today. Maybe tomorrow will be better.
Can't understand the lack of activity on this one. Maybe no one is looking, but this company seems to be doing (or trying to do) the right things to enhance their growth.
No trades, and even this board seems to be practically dead. The info is still from Joe's Jeans, which isn't even a brand owned by this company anymore.
It's a really good question. I thought we had a patent on the technology that allows the bulb to be controlled from the switch during power outage. But the Lyfelite bulb apparently performs the same trick. I'm not sure what advantage the CPC bulb has over this competitor, if any. Maybe this is an opportunity for royalties if they have infringed on our patent rights.
Also, the bids are much higher quantities than last week and prior. Even though the price is not going up yet, buyers are interested in large lots. That has to be a good sign.
I hope you are right, and that it happens quickly. Anyone who knows the story will hold on to their shares at this price level.
Sorry, I missed a page. 36 individual trades totaling 180K shares.
28 individual trades so far today, totaling 112K shares. Volume/interest is great. Now we need it to translate into price growth. Not sure why anyone is selling at this price.
Very short spike to $0.85 in June and July of 2014.
Very short spike to $0.80 in October of 2007
Between June and September of 2006, the price spiked to $1.00 - $1.50
2004 and part of 2005, price was between $0.50 and $1.00
Prior to 2002, price was very volatile and ranged between $$0.30 and $236.25
All of these statements are adjusted for the split, to today's share count.
In between these spikes, the price has been at or below the current value, and the only time it traded in the ranges you mentioned was prior to 2002.
Not saying that I'm particularly happy with today's closing price, but we have been on a steady upward trend for the last two years. And, if you take out the summer of 2014, the steady upward trend is 3.5 years old. I bought my first shares in 2008, and some more in 2015, so my shares are worth more than I paid for them at today's price. Hopefully we will get to $3.50. I will open some champagne as well.
If this or the market order idea that running bull mentioned is what happened, then whomever ended up on the buy side of that transaction is one lucky sob. It was only a $224 buy, but now it's worth $448.
More importantly, it seems to have given potential buyers the idea that something less than the current ask is possible and/or likely. Bid is way too low now.
The $0.358 bid is just insulting. Whatever happened at the opening yesterday really hurt the perceived value of this stock. I would love to know how 1066 shares were available yesterday at $0.21. Who would sell at that price? Now buyers think there is an opportunity to get cheap shares, and they might be right.
Very weird. Did we really have a trade of 1066 shares at $0.21?
Once again, I just don't understand this statistic. I wish someone could explain it. As far as I know, every sell order must be matched up with a buy order, and every buy order must be matched up with a sell order. So my understanding of the activity today is that there were 39,771 shares sold and 39,771 shares bought. My feeling is that today was a good day in terms of interest, even if the price wasn't very good.
If I have this wrong, then I would truly appreciate an explanation of how it actually works.
The price on an outright sale of the company to a larger company would be heavily discounted from what we expect the stock value to be. A reasonable expectation for a company the size of Capstone with Capstone's performance would be somewhere around 20 times EPS. We are nowhere near that, but that is what all of us are looking for. However, a larger company valuing Capstone for an acquisition will value the company based on a multiple of EBITDA, not a multiple of EPS. The current going rate for a company Capstone's size is 10-12 times EBITDA. Stewart announced a 2016 EBITDA of $3,497 in his Roth presentation. At 10 times, that only values the company at $35M. A little higher than that if Stewart could get 12 times. Such a sale would provide us shareholders with around $.73 per share.
Your question about "one on ones" is key. The real reason for doing presentations at these shows is to gain and improve the potential for meeting one-on-one with interested investors. That's where the sale is closed. If Stewart is not doing this, then this strategy will fail.
So I agree with most of this, Townie. However, I think Stewart is doing a good job running the company now, even though he is on the road for a large portion of the year. Investors expect to see someone with a title, either CEO or CFO (not sure what McClinton's skills are here). It certainly wouldn't hurt, and might help, to hire someone with skills in the investor promotion area, but Stewart should still attend the shows himself and bring the new person along for support and guidance. Other than that, your list of priorities is right on.
Thanks for putting that in such a brief and concise way. I've been trying to explain that here for some time now. These presentations will never result in immediate buying, and Stewart knows that. The initiative to promote the company to the investing community is just getting started, and results will come after a lot of hard work on Stewart's part.
I want a jump in price as much as everyone else, and I'm sure it is coming. At least, I'm not going to start worrying until after the 10K, if that doesn't spark something.
I feel your pain Mike. I try to choose my stocks based on favorable operational and financial data, near and long term outlook, and quality management. That often seems like the wrong strategy, when like you, I see crappy companies whose stock is rising for no apparent reason. Especially in this space, where the prices are low and it's easy to get in. Seems like a real company with real results can't get ahead unless they are already priced with larger companies.
I actually think that might be part of our problem. A lot of people who buy stocks under $1 are looking for a "flash in the pan", that they can buy cheap, make a quick return, and get out. People who are looking for a company with solid performance and a solid strategy going forward aren't looking at companies that sell for .43.
I'm hoping that this is just part of the process. We are in a kind of awkward place between what we were as CHDO and what we are becoming as a serious company. Once we start building some price momentum, we will come out where we belong at or around $1.
Yes, frustrated by the lack of interest and/or slow adoption of Stewart's message. However, I'm going to be patient until after the conference call to see if we can get a rally. I don't think any of the people who personally witnessed any of the recent presentations will jump in before the 10K is published. And I don't think anyone else, other than those people who attended and those of us on this board, know anything about those presentations. Anyone else that might buy will only find out about the 2016 performance from the published filings. It's two weeks away, let's hold our ground until then.
Today there was a .41 bid for most of the morning, that no one sold into. I'm happy about that. The bid is now .42. That's a good sign. I'm hoping that the .43 ask is a line in the sand, and that no one will be tempted to sell below that point.
The investors that attend these conferences are the kind of people who read 10Q's and 10K's. Even though Stewart had the high level numbers in his presentation, no one is going to bite until they have the financial details to prove what Stewart is saying.
I can't explain 43 cents either, but I don't think it will improve until the numbers are released. Can't understand what is taking so long. I think only a small percentage of people who follow this stock are also following this board, so the 10K is key.
Only one question was asked because Stewart used up all of the time. They wouldn't allow any other questions. Stewart did ramble a little bit at certain points during the presentation, and especially while answering the one question.
I don't want a buyout. We will get a discounted value for our shares in any buyout, then, after the buyout, we will see muted growth in a larger company. Maybe after the market price is over a dollar.
What we need is the annual report. What are they waiting for?
Right on, marcelh. Only a small number of investors have seen the presentation, and the presentation only gives high level numbers and points of interest. We need the 10K, and the commentary that goes with it on a conference call. That will not only give us the confirmed numbers we need and some information regarding near term outlook, but it will also be seen by a larger number of investors. That's when we can hope to see some movement.
Someone who only has 1000 shares and just wants out. Not sure how to even execute that trade. Scottrade won't allow a trade that doesn't cover the fee.
As a person who has been involved in the kinds of transactions that Wilmington Capital would be used for, I feel that CAPC is more likely looking to acquire than to be acquired. Personally, I am in favor of acquiring over being acquired for current shareholder value purposes. If CAPC is acquired, the potential growth of our share price will be diluted by the performance of a larger company who will not be able to grow as quickly as CAPC should be growing. But if CAPC is acquiring, our growth rate should spike as a result.
This doesn't look to me like an exit strategy for Stewart, but I could definitely be wrong about that. I think the potential for large shareholders like him is greater if some of these strategies start to bear fruit, rather than just selling out to retire.
Regarding this being a sign of not having a plan, I don't agree with that conclusion. If your plan is to grow by acquisition, then you need an outside firm to drive that initiative. It is very possible that Stewart's plan was to grow the company organically to a certain point (this point), and then move to the next phase, where a strategic acquisition would be targeted. Today, the company can afford the consultant, which wasn't the case in the past.
By the way, an acquisition could include a similar sized competitor, a smaller competitor, a product line that can be absorbed into existing operations, a manufacturing facility, etc. Any of these things should result in a stock price increase.
The 8K states that there is no specific action or target currently identified. If that is the case, this process could take a significant amount of time. Finding the right company, at the right price, and with the right terms, isn't something that just falls in your lap because you hired a consultant. Usually you have several targets, and hope one of them works out.