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Lol, that is so funny, a few years back I was thinking sail boat or children.....like a van but for water, big adventures....would love to cross the Atlantic one day, Med to Caribbean.....maybe when myngiros are teenagers....
no one in their right mind would actually pay $65 a share though, because there is a deal on the table for STZ to buy over half the company for less than $48.60....
at that price, $65, we will see a fully diluted share count of well over 500 million shares, putting the diluted market capitalization close to $35 billion dollars.....a price that rivals a fully developed dividend producing corporation like STZ itself....
I know Tweed is a great brand with a great position in a new and potentially lucrative industry, but can it really compare with Corona?
that is the way I look at it, anyways, going to take a nap, hopefully when I wake up there will be an opportunity for profit here, one way or another....
all the best businesses are government monopolies, I would be all about investing in Powerball if it were a corporation.....the payout ratio is ridiculous, they sell tiny scraps of paper dreams for cash....built in formula guarantees they win every time someone buys...
it is such a beautiful business......a group of people get together and decide to throw their money in a pile, money they made and paid taxes on already.....the government takes a slice for the service of picking someone in the group, they distribute what's left to that someone in the group, call that earning money and tax em again!!!!
you know what, I think this stock is going to go up.....even though I think it shouldn't be sustainable, there is so much hype, its a silly hype train, demand, demand, demand.....supply.....explosion....
it is wild, all I ask for is some nice volatility
approximately 1% of humanity resides in prison, .3% are in the military....
another 1% have at least $700,000 in net worth.....that is 80 million people world wide, about the population of Germany, obviously the ruling class of people, they control the world's resources and have influence of the world's population....
and everyone else lives in the middle....mostly they are busy working, building the prisons and military, protecting and solidifying the wealth of the rich...
i have found I can live outside the system, but not with children....so I got to make a run for the top 1%
I don't understand the logic in that......Constellation bought in at significantly less than $48.60 Canadian.....for that price they got a share and a warrant to buy one over the next three years....
that is what Bruce Linton thinks of his company, he is willing to sell out at $50 a share, so much so that he is willing to take it three years from now......
if you think that warrant has zero value, ok......but you can't also tell me that WEED is worth over $50.40 CAD a share..... really got to decide one or the other......if WEED has a value in excess of $50.40 a share than Bruce Linton sold shares at less than $48.60...
ultimately what the market is telling me is $5 billion in Bruce Linton's hands is instantly worth over $7 billion.....over 40% ROI instantly....and I don't buy it
I believe that everyone should try out homelessness for a while, once or twice in their life......freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose - it can really put things in perspective, best times of my life for sure
I currently live in an apartment, but spent about 8 years living in a Chevy Van.....did a few.road trips across this continent....lived in a trailer one winter ski bumming.....parked it in Barry's driveway ....those were the days my friend
That is the literary equivalent of a handjob, good writing
I don't believe is RSI.....only thing that matters now is $48.60, $50.40....and how far we go above that....
It is about phantom billions, not RSI, in my opinion
My profit.was just $6,400 on that one, 800 shares two days...wife will take half, $3200, pay a third in taxes....still left with $2,000....which is about what I would take home in a month from work....just fun money, going out tonight if my girlfriend ever gets ready....hear her drying her hair.....what the fuck am I doing waiting on smoking my own damn weed
Fuck, if it took me this long to take a shower.....I would probably be in the shower right now
Ganja Express sells cannabis in Canada, in case you haven't heard that is fully legal....
I am an American living in Canada.....Canadian just sounds better, sold at $72 two days ago, bought back in at $64 today, put the profit in a few bank stocks......see what I mean?
I don't see any cannabis for sale there
But ganjaexpress.ca is still open, thanks
Now that it is legal in Canada I guess I will order some cannabis.....
Anyone know how to order product in Quebec????
you can ask to be forgiven, costs $200, small price to pay, little paperwork.....i hear this all the time, got to get my girlfriend forgiven....it is crazy that people would just give up on the USA like that.....how do you go to Vegas? I couldn't imagine.....thank goodness I was born there, or they would never let me in.....lol
Selling in the 70s is where you get the real green....hoping to buy back at $64.. or maybe I just buy more STZ and wait it out....I don't know, exciting times
Do you have examples....
I was thinking that legalization and or this deal closing would lead to a big sell off.....but it could go the other way too, I am prepared to sell more if it gets crazy
Either way I am happy....I already have a lot and I like where my money bid placed at the moment
You can read CGC press releases at Canopy Growth.com, the answer to the question you ask is there.
it is all just an opinion....i count over 500 million shares three years from now, but I would say that must be conservative....I didn't count employee options for example.
I am confident that each STZ share has access to about 1.7 weed shares....or about $80 USD of value at $65 CAD a share....and they paid or will pay less than $50 a share ......with some real basic math it looks like it is definitely over $12 USD a profit per STZ share at these prices.....
a lot more, I mean it wouldn't take long to get into the math....just got to break down each deal on a per share basis....all arithmetic..three deals, shares, warrants and convertible notes....they got these beautiful convertible notes that make money and convert to WEED shares at a discount when they are done paying interest....the capital and the interest all get converted to WEED shares at a discount to the current investor....to get into that you would need something more than basic arithmetic....and the rainbow warrants....to be honest it is actually ridiculously complicated but with some basic math and logic you can see that it gets really good for STZ when the price goes far above $65 a share....
Even though I am pessimistic about CGC's long term prospects from here on out....price wise...I am still an investor and don't have any plans on selling all my shares....but I am definitely willing to bring it down to 100 shares with the hopes they one day pay a dividend I guess....still I am hoping for some legalization day madness, big price rise....
anyone think it will be a big deal here? Will it be all over the news, everyone waiting in lines, reporters ordering cannabis online? How is Tweed looking, do we have stores ready to go yet? Where I go to get my first truly legal all 100$ legit Tweed cannabis in Quebec?
depends on the price....in the low 30s, when I was all in before the deal was announced....it was super positive for me as a shareholder, I went up over 100% and I sold it all, and did some trading for added extra profits and it was certainly great....
but take that same deal for a shareholder that is holding his shares at $70 a share, to the person that bought shares from me.....for that guy this deal is not so good....for any further returns on investment there will be a require a massive increase in the value of WEED....because of the built in dilution....
in my opinion of course....could be that WEED does so spectacularly good that investing in WEED vastly outperforms an investment in STZ....but I am confident in my basic arithmetic and logic....if Bruce wants to sell his baby for $48.60 a share.....why not sell some myself at $70 and buy into the company that has all the warrants....
Essentially STZ bought in and they get an over sized proportion of further increases in value to WEED than the average shareholder because they got the warrants.....
they are going to more than double the number of shares and the increase to the book value of WEED will be less than the increase in its market capitalization......by billions....at these prices of about $65 a share...Canopy Growth Corp has a fully diluted market capitalization in excess of $32.5 billion Canadian dollars....
No, i honestly don't think that STZ will ever actually become a 50% owner, they can obviously sell their warrants....the first tranche of warrants from their first deal have been available to exercise for over a month now....
they could exercise the warrants, and sell the underlying shares on the market and just keep the profit, to help pay for deal number 2, that will close later this month.....9.4 million warrants at $50 profit each - they could easily get half a billion for those....10% of the big deal right there.....
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/canopy-growth-establishes-groundbreaking-strategic-relationship-with-constellation-brands-654060453.html
sure, there was a press release in mid August I think, explains it all....always consider the share structure....over 500 million shares before long.. this is got a fully diluted market capitalization of over $35 billion CAD at this point.
yes, after the deal is done, they will control the board of directors of WEED>CGC.....Bruce sold controlling interest to one organization...for $48.60 a share Canadian...this organization will have access to over half of CGC equity, all for under $50.40 a share and they have three years to payout....
If you include the shares and warrants and convertible notes, we are most certainly already there.....above 60%....just the equity will be paid for to the corporation over the next three years....STZ owns this corporation.....controls it outright
Thank you.. simple arithmetic is always hard to argue over....at $30 billion dollars market capitalization you would want to see at least a billion in annual sales, hundreds of millions in earnings.....and further immediate growth potential, getting to and keeping $60 a share in two years would be a win
You talk about an imaginary price of $150 2 years from now.
230 million shares currently outstanding.
104.5 million shares constellation deal II
139.7 million new warrants constellation deal II
12.4 million shares from Convertable senior notes
18.8 million warrants constellation deal I
= 505.4 million
and I don't know what other dilution that is built in - guaranteed to be more than 500 million shares...
you need to consider the share structure - because $150 implies a fully diluted market capitalization of over $75 billion CAD.
a price of $100 implies a market capitalization of $50 billion dollars CAD, about the valuation of Constellation currently.....
a price of $75, a price we have already seen (although I never owned shares when it got that high) - that is $37.5 billion CAD....I mean if we see that in 2 years it will then be certainly more than $40 billion dollars....I know I haven't counted all the dilution...at $75 every one of those warrants and convertible notes is guaranteed to be exercised...
at $60 - looking at over $30 billion CAD - at $60 every one of those warrants and convertible notes is guaranteed to be exercised...is it really worth $30 billion now?
Bottom line, Bruce Linton was able to sell WEED shares for $48.60 a share, a lot of them, but he had to give away three year warrants to get that price for MY EQUITY....he decided that cash was more valuable than WEED shares...
between the first constellation deal, the convertible notes and the second constellation deal - Bruce sold more than half the corporation for cash....all significantly less than $48.60 a share...factor in the true value of the warrants and that is plain to see
and a few weeks later I was able to get $66, $68, $70 for that same EQUITY and I invested that money in the company that was able to buy that same equity for $48.60 BECAUSE they ALSO have warrants that are worth over $10 a piece still, and they are for three years....STZ has the optionality, Rob Sands and crew going to know when to dilute you, WEED has a ceiling built in, dilute you out to my benefit
and what do you know, it makes sense to me, and it seemed to make sense to the market as well, since I have started doing this WEED volatility has paid me, and I put that money into STZ, STZ goes up, WEED goes down.
Mexico would be an absolute great destination for cocaine tourism..... already is
I know I will support it down there for sure.....
And I feel the same way, I was using $65 as a base to sell stock, and using the $50s to buy it back...but then I diversified - at this point for me it is all about relative value WEED to STZ, as the price of WEED approaches and crosses $50.40 and $48.60 the value proposition changes dramatically - the current intrinsic value of a deal that has not even been finalized can go from billions to less than nothing...and the prospect of dilution as well, I mean at $70 dilution could happen without any further benefit to a current shareholder, you cannot say the same thing if the price is $49...at $49 you still have to make some profit before Constellation can strike those $50.40 warrants for profit
yep - all stems from this document
https://www.canopygrowth.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/CBI-CG-Press-Release-FINAL.pdf
logic tells you to hold....have you tried arithmetic, logic combined with numbers....what is the logic you use? Buy Canopy Growth Corp because it is the best company, because cannabis is awesome? I am smoking cannabis right now, I am high, I know Canopy Growth Corp is the best company in the world, by far, in this space......but does that mean that Canopy Growth Corp is a better VALUE than STZ right now....
Got to do the arithmatic, STZ is earning cash that it uses to pay out shareholders by buying back shares, paying dividends, and purchasing shares of WEED.....and each share of STZ right now has low cost access to 1.7 Canopy Growth shares, that number actually increases as STZ buys back it's own shares....
STZ owns 1.7 times more warrants and shares of WEED than there are STZ shares outstanding.....get that through your head! The price of WEED is SIGNIFICANTLY higher than the strike price for ALL of those WARRANTS....the WARRANTS damn near 200 million of them, I did the arithmetic already, forget all the details....been making money ever since - LOGIC
at todays price CGC is 47.49 USD per share....each STZ share will have at least 1.7 CGC shares in three years at low cost, financed entirely by earnings...that is $80 worth of CGC equity USD prices....that is 36% of the total price of an STZ share...
Each share of STZ pays out an ever increasing amount of cash quarterly, and each share will buy itself at least 1.7 shares of WEED over the next three years at low cost compared to today's prices....They pay about 60 million dollars a year to finance this whole deal 4 billion dollars and they are already up 1 billion dollars on their first deal!!!!!!! At these STUPID prices!!!! and the first tranche of warrants from their first deal is available to convert! Who's making the money??? STZ has already paid for the whole damn thing....it is in the bag....it is so god damn beautiful.....these beautiful shares pay dividends and buy WEED shares with WEED warrants.....lol....oh my god I love it
So explain the logic where WEED outperforms STZ? In what scenario does WEED outperform STZ....???
I don't even care, I know logic, I put in the work, doesn't take much to see the truth.....
Logic tells you to hold? Did logic tell you to hold @ $70? Logic told me to sell....even when I had my last 1000 shares, my 'long' position....I couldn't ignore the simple logic that the farther it moves past the latest and greatest bought deal price of LESS THAN $48.60, the higher that goes...the less likely you will see future positive returns
Last two trades were sell 800 at 70, bought them back at $64, that is my long position....but $70 is just too stupid...I have only 1000 shares, purely for speculation of big moves on legalization
First big sale was at $66.66, and since the I done good, STZ done good too....logic
sitting back thinking about the money I will be making with my sweet investment in STZ....
Overvalued, over bought, strong sell....,at these prices it makes sense to sell WEED and buy STZ.....if you got to own one cannabis stock, at these prices, should be something that generates meaningful earnings and pays out dividends
STZ is a cash generating machine that builds brands, and they bought half of CGC EQUITY for LESS THAN $50 A SHARE CAD!!!!
this is all just my opinion.... except it is damn near a mathematical fact that an investment in STZ will outperform WEED at these prices because about 150 million WARRANTS
It's the damn warrants!!!! The WARRANTS!!!! Warrants, three year warrants
In Quebec, home to about 20% of the population of Canada, they don't yet have a plan for how to educate the people that will work in the stores they don't have yet to sell cannabis....
but they are working on it, soon they will have a plan, then they will start the education
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-cannabis-store-training-1.4814270
they say that online sales will open up right away, we will see
For once I am with you - please, do something useful and make the price of WEED drop so I can buy more shares.....tell me, do you know where I can buy some Tweed in Quebec next week? or the week after that?
I sure as hell don't know