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You get in on any trades today? I only did the 2 myself.
Very nice. Yea I made a couple of goodvtrades in GUSH but not near 100%.
Yes but regardless of the SA and Russia device also consider whenever COVID-19 subsides (which we don't know when) that will bring a good amount of demand back. Also the price being so low helps demand. Then US producers will have to cut back (takes time but they will) and then add too the huge gap down now in the chart of oil at $41 which those always fill eventually so yes I'm pretty confident oil back to 40s in a few months. Might go back to 20s first though.
Couldn't help myself. Bought two different batches. 1.66 and 1.305
I think this is justified. Well in the near term. Demand will be shot for a few months. $30 oil is about fair right now. I expect however that oil will rise back to $40 however maybe by June.
$32 is a major support area. 30 is as well and also about $27. Hours ago oil caught a bid there at $27 and bounced and has been holding $32 since. Considering adjusting for inflation over the years etc I would be surprised if oil was to go lower then $26-27. Right now it looks the absolute bleakest for the oil sector, no hope at all. That's usually a good place to start buying. I'm not concerned at all about buying either UWT or GUSH at these levels. My only concern today is that these ETFs don't "break".
At the time of that post oil was down 31% but it has bounced now and holding around $32. I think UWT will be ok today and not be broken (go down 100%). 3 times 33.3% down in 1 day is 100% and that would break the ETF. I do not think that will happen but it was something that I feel people should be aware that there is a possibility. That it isn't impossible and keep an eye on that.
Well it shat massive. Good call. I have almost nothing but cash (thank God) and am comfortable to start buying oil at $28 but not until I see that UWT doesn't get broken on Monday which right now is a possibility.
Be careful here on Monday. If oil goes down more then 33% then UWT can break. I want UWT myself but I'm not buying until Tuesday to make sure that the ETF being broken isn't a possibility when I buy. Please be aware and don't be like those people in early 2018 that got caught in inverse VIX ETFs that got broken.
Oil down to $28. Can and probably will go lower but it is crashed now. Oil stocks were already crashed. XOP is almost half the price now then in 2016 when oil was at this price. XOP was about $21 the last time oil was in the 20 handle.
I have almost no stocks. I'm almost all cash and have been since late last year as the low VIX and complacency had me a little concerned. I'm now looking to put at least a little money to work but most of the market is only down 15% so it isn't time yet. When I look at oil and oil stocks however they are down now over 50% so actually oil sector might be getting close to a bottom even though the rest of the market is no where close.
I'm debating on whether to start accumulating GUSH or UWT. XOP as I stated is already a dead horse that's been beat over and over. Then UWT well oil won't stay in the 20s. Months from now it will be 40 again. Problem though is UWT might get broken tomorrow. If oil falls more then 33% then UWT will break. Remember those inverse VIX products in 2018?There is a risk it won't trade anymore. If oil can fall less and not cause UWT to break then I think I'm going to start buying UWT Tuesday once that broken ETF possibility is no longer a risk. If UWT does break then obviously I won't buy that and I think I will start to accumulate GUSH.
Time to start nibbling again. Took a bite on Friday.
Very nice day. I sold some at $3.40 that I grabbed awhile ago at $2.52. Still have a mixed bag. Got some bags at $6 and $5 but also have a lot of shares at $3 and under. Been flipping around a core position. What I sold today I would like to buy back when the gap up today fills later. Nice little W forming on the daily.
Im looking at low 3s as my next buy target.
Yes the resistance level is pretty much obvious. In that 28-29 range. Eventually XOP will get through that. Historically speaking XOP should be mid $30s with where the price of oil is at. Big boys have the correlation all out of whack. That will correct though but will take time.
I was looking at low 4s also to buy back some of what I sold yesterday. I'm not buying anything back until that gap up yesterday fills. My $30 XOP target I realize will take some time. There will be major resistance at 28-29.
My target is whenever XOP hits $30. That would be about $8 for GUSH. However because XOP did hit my first target of $25 I did sell 1/3rd of my shares of GUSH at $5.32 and took profit. A very great day for the few of us that were in.
Remember everyone by my calculations gush has decay of about 3.5% a month. If I look at XOP chart and I see a target level that it should hit but I'm referencing a XOP price from 2 months ago I then have to adjust what that would then make the gush target in correlation, so I would have to subtract 7% from the correlating gush target. Therefore it is easier to just use XOP chart only and buy GUSH when XOP chart is a buy regardless of the price of GUSH and sell gush when the XOP chart says to sell regardless of what gush price is.
I would watch only the XOP chart as far as filling gaps. Gush has decay. It won't always fill gaps because of that. When XOP gets back to $25 GUSH will not be as high as it was before when XOP was $25 for instance. XOP will fill gaps though and in my view the chart to use. With these high leveraged dirivites ETFs I always chart the underlying ETF that they are dirivites of. I don't chart NUGT instead I chart GDX. I don't chart UWT instead I chart WTI. Same here. Chart the XOP instead of Gush. It works better.
And that is the chart I have been watching this whole time. The weekly chart, but I am using the XOP chart. XOP chart is more useful IMO because GUSH has decay and so XOP chart is more accurate. I really see no major resistance in XOP chart until about $25. That would bring GUSH to near $5. August 1st XOP was $25 and gush was about 5.25. Thats the decay factor. However I believe before the end of the year XOP will be back above $30.
Things looking better here in September. Keep an eye on XOP $25. That is my first target. Demand for oil is strong despite what headlines say. Massive drawls in inventories for several months now. Week after week. Close to 60 million barrels of drawls total over the last few months. Headlines won't mention that though. All will balance out though and XOP will return to 25 then 28 and then 30.
XOP has 4 gap downs under $30 that I am certain will fill. Just back in May XOP was around $30. Oil really hasn't moved much since then. Either has the market. No reason for XOP to be at $20. The decay is about 3% a month here but I keep accumulating as I truly believe it will pay off.
Xop is way out of correlation with the price of oil. For months I have believed that it all gets turned around starting in late August or September. Fact is historically XOP would be in the mid 30s with oil in mid 50s. I believe what happened in the Gold complex will happen in the oil complex. They drove the gold stocks insainly low in the early part of the year. Made them look undesirable and worthless. Made them look like a lost cause. Then boom a few months ago they started a huge run. With Xop already way out of correlation with the price of oil it should not take much of anything to get these oil stocks to run. Things are way out of balance but that always corrects itself. Also they keep talking about a recession looming. Never has a recession ever started without inflation preceding it. The next recession will be after there has been inflation. Without inflation consumers will spend and as long as they do no recession comes. The price of oil is a huge contributor to that. A spike in oil always precedes a recession. When oil spikes it puts major strain on consumers in many different aspects. For instance oil spikes in 2006-2007 to over $120 a barrel. Then the recession started in 2008. If there is going to be a recession then oil will spike first and if there is not going to be a recession the still the Xop being so far out of correlation with oil will have to correct. Either way I believe GUSH is setup really good. Just like gold stocks were earlier in the year. Only negative to waiting is the decay and it is roughly 3% a month but I think we won't be caring about that too much 9nce GUSH is ripping higher. There are 3 gap downs in XOP to watch. At around 23 then around 25 and finally a huge one at 28.50 or so. These gap downs will eventually fill and if you do the calculations you will see what kind of run GUSH is setup for. Again the only thing that will hurt that is the 3% monthly decay but I believe the fire works should start within a month or so. Also for my friend private messaging me I can't private message back but I believe I have answered your last message within this post.
Grabbed more at $2.95 today. The last time XOP was at these levels the S&P 500 was 1800 and oil was $27.
Absolutely ridiculous for XOP to be anywhere near all time low with oil being $57. Bought more GUSH at $3.50. They have clearly artificially kept XOP down.
Bought again at 4 bucks.
There we go. I figured just a waiting game. Nice huge bullish engulfing today looks good. Flush out seems to have happened from mid last week to yesterday.
This one is a waiting game as I've said before. Its a great buy if you can wait. If you can't wait then probably shouldn't buy. XOP is currently one of the most undervalued ETFs in the market if not the single most.
Another inventory drawl. Bought more GUSH today at $5.28.
Oil is down some but not to the amount to where GUSH should be down 8%. The XOP has been getting treated very unfavorably over the last 2 months. Oil is about even over that time while XOP has gone from 30 to 25. My best guess is that a couple months ago big boys betted that oil would fall back to mid 40s. They were wrong and now hold XOP down to buy time until they figure out what to do. I said it when I first started buying GUSH that it would be a waiting game.I'd say maybe by September Xop will be back above 30 and GUSH back near 10. I bought more today myself.
Anyone else have a look at the weekly chart? Looks like a nice setup. Possible W formation. Oil at $60 should have XOP in mid to high 30s. Huge gap down in XOP in daily chart also. Looking for at least low 30s in XOP before selling GUSH. That would be in the 9-10 dollar range. I am currently slightly green but will wait until target is hit. I will make about $3 a share profit. Also fyi the energy sector currently is less then 5% of the S&P 500. Only once before in history that was the case and it tripled within a year. Back in early 2000s.
Those buys in the 5s and 6s were low hanging fruit just like I said. The XOP should have never been under $30. It is still under $30 but not for too much longer.
Sorry. At times I can go days without coming to this site. No I didn't know that. Oil has been doing very well over the last week. Looking strong. XOP should already be well over $30. It will go there and then some. My gut tells me institutional shorts piled into XOP too drastically and MMs are holding it down. Only a matter of time. I continue to accumulate GUSH. I am nearing a full position. Gold is going through the roof. Which I anticipated about a month ago would happen.
Every headline is against XOP. Every talking head on tv too. Again XOP is near all time low but with oil being twice as much as the 2016 low. The short trade in XOP is way overcrowded and XOP is very manipulated for now. I stated this would take some time when I first started buying. The manipulation recently has gotten especially onerous. That always balances out though. I'm buying more today. I will continue to slowly buy as again this is the best bargain on the market. The companies in the XOP are all now mostly trading at huge discounts, almost all now have price to earnings ratios of 7 and below, this is not sustainable and with those in the media so quick to say sell sell sell it makes it even more attractive.
XOP could definitely hit $40. Fact is it should be around $35 right now with oil near $54. Regardless XOP will jump back over $30 for sure. To me that is a slam dunk so I'm expecting that minimum and that would put GUSH back at $10 or so. That is the low hanging fruit. Much more then that is very possible however IMO.
The decay of GUSH is roughly 3% a month by my rough calculations. For instance it is roughly 18-20% lower then about 6 months ago when XOP was at current price level. A few weeks in this and the decay isn't a big deal but start to hold for months and it eats away.
I don't know about holding it till September. I'm probably selling when XOP is back in low $30s. Oil does have a yearly pattern though. Usually buy in March and sell in May then buy in early summer and sell in late summer but it isn't exactly like that. It varies some year to year. Like last year it bottomed in December which is not typical. News, headlines, inventory data, and most importantly charts I use. O and the news and headlines are best used to do opposite.
No. I only worry about reverse splits if its a sorry company desperate for cash and doing toxic death spiral financing which concludes in massive dilution. With these ETFs that isn't the case. These ETFs only R/S when needed to stay listed. Actually usually when these R/S over the years I have noticed they turn and run up usually because by the time the split comes the ETF downward trend has exhausted. The % move up or down remains the same regardless of any split. The movement of the XOP is what moves this. Nothing else. There is decay in these but it isn't a huge deal if just swing trading for a few weeks. The XOP is priced as if oil is $35-$38. Historically speaking that is. XOP also has a huge gap down to fill at just under $29. Also it has been over $30 for 99% of its existence so a return to $30 is inevitable which will get GUSH back to $10ish. Nothing to fear here at all. This is the best buy I can currently find in the market.
Oil should bounce at $52. I'm not buying this though. I'm buying GUSH instead. The XOP is just way too cheap. Inventory numbers later today.