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Just started reading and looks mostly good so far. A few have asked recently about how much is left to spend and it's answered in here.
They have $2.5 milly left to pay on first 2 SPORT units. After this they have $43.6 milly left to US launch. Footnote (1) also states that G&A expenses are included in these figures.
I know some of you have already worked the #'s, so where does this leave us
Thanks so much for the update! I'm going to go over it tonight when I get a minute. All of it actually sounds pretty positive to me!
Thanks again
Four new SEDAR documents up on site. Haven't had time to look at them yet to see what they are. Maybe just updating the supplement again?
Yes. It's been down since last week. In the past they've never pulled it down for an update. They just switched old for new and someone would find the new one and share.
Something material must be changing for them to pull it off the site before posting the new one. Why pull it down and not just switch once new presentation is ready? Not sure if good or bad news coming. I tend to agree with some that the distributor wouldn't have entered the agreement without seeing SPORT and believing.
These guys should join the WSOP because I can't tell what hand they have! Are they sitting with pocket Aces or are they bluffing us all with an 8/3 hand!?
New Material Change Report up on SEDAR. Don't have time to read. Can someone take a look and update us.
Thanks!
OK....So these examples are just like Cardinal Health, PSS, Medline. These are "distributors" for Covidien, J&J and many other companies here in the US. Each of these have reps that call on hospitals and doctors offices and take orders for band aids, cotton balls, suture......
I have NEVER seen one of these reps in the OR selling. They are order takers not sales representatives. Ask them a question on a technical product and they'll look at you like you have 2 heads. Ask them to ship you 25 cases of cotton balls and they'll be there on Thursday.
So, yes technically these companies use distributors to move product for them, not sell.
I just purchased over 10,000 more shares last week on top of an already substantial amount so I hope I don't get burned on Monday! I am still hopeful Titan pulls this out and I do think there's a good chance PPS increases Monday. Just being realistic about the longer term and Titan's chances. Nothing would make me happier than to be wrong on this!
I work in the med device industry and have friends at almost every major med device company out there. Know the industry from this side more than almost anyone on this board I promise. Those stating that Medtronic and J&J don't have a MAJOR presence in China show me how little they know. Both companies have large R&D and sales force in China. I never said they had the same size sales force as in the USA. The US outspends all others in healthcare so that's where resources have gone. Look at almost any major healthcare company and their growth in US has slowed and new growth comes from overseas markets. That's where a lot of resources are headed as we speak.
Show me any solid info that Medtronic or J&J use distributors in China. I just showed you proof from both companies websites and get attacked that I'm incorrect. Some of you guys make me laugh at how little you actually know about the industry side of the business.
I remain long, just not as confident that Titan will be the grand slam I thought it to be.
If J&J having 9,000 employees in China is not significant I don't know what is. Many of these are sales positions. J&J has 113 sales openings in China.
http://jobs.jnj.com/go/Sales-Jobs-in-China/1239500/
https://www.jnj.com/caring/citizenship-sustainability/strategic-framework/Market-Presence
Medtronic focusing heavily on China. Covidien has 97 sales positions open and Medtronic over 50 sales positions open in Asia Pacific. This doesn't include the sales representatives they already have in place.
http://marketing.scripintelligence.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2014/07/Medtronic-and-Covidien.pdf
https://covidien.taleo.net/careersection/2/jobsearch.ftl?lang=en
http://jobs.medtronic.com/search/advanced-search/ASCategory/Sales/ASPostedDate/-1/ASCountry/China/ASState/-1/ASCity/-1/ASLocation/-1/ASCompanyName/-1/ASCustom1/-1/ASCustom2/-1/ASCustom3/-1/ASCustom4/-1/ASCustom5/-1/ASIsRadius/false/ASCityStateZipcode/-1/ASDistance/-1/ASLatitude/-1/ASLongitude/-1/ASDistanceType/-1
This move is very disappointing to me. I'll reserve my final judgement until I get a look at a completed SPORT and what the final distribution deal entails.
1 - Every large suitor is out of the picture. All of the large players are very focused on international markets and wouldn't do a deal with Asia Pacific market gone. This means Titan will compete with Intuitive, Warren Robotics, Medtronic, Olympus.....
2 - Good luck with the above. Unless SPORT is complete disruptive technology Titan will be a small time player in Robotics. The large companies are leveraging their power and blocking out a lot of small players. Unless the technology is so much better it won't gain much traction. If SPORT was that much better one of the above companies would be doing an M&A.
3 - Medtronic does $1 Billion sales in China, J&J $2.5 Billion. Titan is looking to sign with a company that does $100 Million in Xray film and equipment. Think this through....Medtronic and J&J have many sales representatives all over Asia that have relationships with surgeons. Titan's distributor has reps selling Xray equipment. Do they even know the procedures SPORT will be used in. Training these reps will be a nightmare, cost a ton of $ and what surgeon relationships do they have?
4 - Again, I'll wait to see what the final deal is, but this distributor got a good look at SPORT. Why is Titan discounting share price if SPORT is that great? Start ups that have tremendous upside this close to market usually go up in valuation not down. If the deal is completed and Titan gets everything mentioned in the PR and an upfront payment of $50+ Million for the rights to distribute SPORT in Asia Pacific then great.
5 - I'm very concerned management has no clue what they're doing from a business perspective. I feel like Intuitive came out with first cell phone that changed an industry. Titan management has the Blackberry that could have made a ton of $ if it got to market in time. Titan took too long and Warren Robotics will have the iPhone to market before Titan can penetrate the market.
The Q3 MD&A should be out in the next 2 weeks and hopefully has more detail. Warren will also announce something very soon. My guess is RAVEN. Hold on tight this could get ugly. I hope I'm wrong though and management has something up their sleeve!
You maybe correct that they go to the shelf, I still believe it will. What keeps driving me crazy is there are several people here who say PPS would be climbing if M&A was happening.
NO IT WOULD NOT
These deals don't get leaked often. I have many friends that work for Covidien and Medtronic. Not one of them or their managers knew that deal was going down. They all told me they found out when the deal was publicly announced not a minute before. Same with Synthes being bought by J&J.
If Titan is purchased or a Partnership happens we will wake up one morning and this board will have 500 posts in the first hour as PPS skyrockets.
Good luck to all longs! I'm going quite until we have some real news in next few weeks.
Very interesting if he's telling the truth. Not sure he can come out and say "yep we'll be going to the shelf and diluting in a couple weeks to raise $". That's information you could use to trade in & out to your advantage. So shelf is still very much in play for sure IMO.
If he's telling the truth though there's only 3 options.
1 - Loan
2 - They have big announcement coming that they feel will get PPS up enough to have Warrants exercised.
3 - M&A
I never expected much from this conference because it's too specialized. One interesting thing on the slide in the background though.
It mentions miniaturization which might be just because of the conference and trying to tailor to crowd. Most companies though build the presentation to the needs that they have or are working on solutions for. So maybe Titan has some plans for miniaturized instruments down the road or the unknown supplier is already working on this?
I completely agree with you. All I'm trying to say is you and I have waited years at this point and we should be getting a lot of information over the next 3-4 weeks. I'm as frustrated as most with the lack of updates. My main frustration is that we all purchased based on opportunity. We have yet to see a finished product working. They could run into small technical issues that delay SPORT by another year.
If An MA doesn't happen and Titan doesn't give some great news it may be time for me to move on. As many have uncovered there's a lot of new technology coming to this space.
I'm in the same camp as all of you, but let's all take a deep breath. If Warren Robotics is not Titans partner then my early retirement plan may be out the window. However, I still feel if Titan has their act together we'll all still make money on this. I agree the seeming lack of urgency is concerning. We all went into this knowing it was boom or bust though.
Have a few beers and watch some football this weekend and news will be coming within the next few weeks. We've all waited a long time and are getting on edge. The time to evaluate where our investment stands is coming very soon.
Agree with you 100%. If an MA happens that's great and we'll all be happy. If not Titan better get off their A** and start promoting SPORT. Technology in this sector is now changing rapidly and what could be a Billion $ idea today could be 1/2 in a year or 2. They need to start communicating what they have to get surgeons and hospitals excited.
Supposedly they have great IP so the ideas are protected. Why keep it a secret at this point???? If MA doesn't happen this management team is just in over their heads. Why the silence?
I hope I'm wrong and Warren Robotics announces a takeover of Titan in the next few weeks. I just don't see it. Here's another link to a robotic conference in May 2015 just after the Google/J&J partnership. Look at the first keynote speech. Raven 2 transition from research to start up presented by Blake Hannaford. Go to the very bottom and see his bio at bottom. Spending time working with Google Life Sciences.
If we all saw that Fowler was working with Google Life Sciences people on this site would be taking 2nd mortgages out and putting everything on Titan. How is no one saying "WOW" this is pretty big news.
Not saying it's a done deal, but to me more of a sign than Titan. Why couldn't J&J be developing instruments for the RAVEN system????
Again hope I'm wrong, but wish I could invest in Applied Dexterity tomorrow.
http://icra2015.org/conference/forums/11-conference/40-industry-forum#!R10low
Heard the same from Medtronic rep. Unless their system fails they're out.
I've flipped my position on Titan being bought out by Warren Robotics. IMO odds are very high that this will not be the case.
1 - Google/J&J had their robotic partner picked out long before Warren Robotics was announced to the general public. This isn't being worked out on the fly. They've been working with someone for over a year IMO.
2 - If Titan is being bought out by Warren Robotics. There's NO WAY they let some random French guy present at a conference just before they take over Titan. They would require Titan have a quite period going on.
3 - No way a lifelong developer of RAVEN robotic surgical system flips and starts to help develop Warren Robotics, a major competitor. (unless he just wants a pay day which most academics would turn down)
4 - LTG seems to know exactly what will happen. TRXC is the next king of surgical robotics.
In all seriousness, everyone needs to prepare for the fact that odds are that Warren Robotics is not a buyer of Titan. They will more than likely be a major competitor. My bet is on either RAVEN or DLR system. Both are MUCH smaller that the SPORT system.
I hope Titan has a solid plan in place as I'm riding this out, but I'm sweating all the way on this one. The management team better have something up it's sleeve and I'm not convinced of the Warren Robotics like a lot of you.
Fingers crossed!!!!
I felt the same way about the open source. My thought was they could buy out and take it private. Not sure how the open source community would feel about that though. It would be like Firefox going private, which is against everything they stand for.
I hope Google just hired him as a consultant and he agreed based on getting a large grant or some cold hard cash.
Everything I've seen has pointed towards Google/J&J and Titan. First piece of info that really has made me question.
Is anyone familiar with RAVEN 2 and it's size & capabilities? Does it match up with what Warren Robotics is looking to do?
Looks like Google/J&J might be looking at Applied Dexterity's RAVEN 2? Not too familiar with the system other than it's an open source platform.
Look at Blake Hannaford
http://applieddexterity.com/about/team/
https://plus.google.com/+DanielFerris/posts/eFsvRi5F3Bu
He could be just a paid consultant because of his vast knowledge of robotic surgery programming. RAVEN 2 is his baby though and why would he agree to help what could be the competition.
Looks like Google/J&J may be going another direction. I hope not, but first sign I've seen pointing somewhere else.
I'm in a hospital multiple times a week that uses Microline instruments. Mainly the scissors. The hospital likes that they save $ reusing handle and shaft. Surgeons like that they get brand new sharp scissors each case.
Correct that Microline is a resposable company. What that means is the handle and shaft are reusable and the instrument at the very tip is disposable. This is exactly what Titan is doing. Reusable snake arms and disposable instrument at tip.
Very well could be Microline still.
Got it Thanks. I agree it's not a big deal if just on the capital. I thought it was everything.
All 3 of the robotic companies are outside US. Just shows J&J's thought process of looking outside US right now for M&A.
I don't think DLR or Samsung is further along than Titan. Just other options out there that Google/J&J might find they can do more with. Just not enough information as to where those platforms are in the process.
I agree Samsung looks big.
Don't discount the problem that the royalty may cause. Per CUIN2 and I think I remember seeing the same it's a percentage of net sales. This means they would take about 5% off the total sales not just profits. That's a big deal and when translated into a % of profits is a much larger %.
Not saying it's a deal breaker, but a red flag for sure. Warren Robotics could just throw a large sum of cash at the University to purchase the patent.
Thanks for the info CUIN2. That's $50MM on every Billion in sales. Not sure Warren Robotics would go for that unless the University took a buyout offer. This might make Samsung or DLR a more appealing takeover.
J&J's CFO stated at the Q3 update that they would be more likely to look at outside of US M&A's due to most of J&J's cash being held outside US. He was quoted as saying “more to come on that at a later date”.
I do think that Titan has around a 25% chance that they're the partner with Google/J&J if that is the direction of Warren Robotics. There are some other companies with good technology that may be a more attractive play for Warren.
One reason I say this is I'm not sure that Google/J&J wants to pay a royalty to the University that Titan licensed the main patent from. Does anyone remember what the deal was on that patent? I thought it was a straight % of profit or sales?
IMO that could be a deal breaker unless Warren could buy the University out of the deal. It just might be too many hands in the pot for them. Unless Warren felt SPORT was just way ahead of the rest they may look at another option just to avoid a royalty deal.
I'm excited and fearful at the same time. This could go either way very soon. Like I and many others have said if Titan ends up on their own this could end up ugly for us longs.
Interesting J&J Q3 call today & very worth the listen. If you listen to the podcast at the 27:50 mark robotics is brought up. Then again during the Q&A session at 55:30. Should take no more than 5 minutes to listen.
What I got out of it:
- J&J (Ethicon) just working on tools and instruments. Disposable was mentioned.
- Interestingly they brought up surgeon to patient proximity and surgeon isolation from rest of OR. Does this mean their solution is surgeon standing by patient side like Surgibot or not having head down in console. I believe they mean not having head buried in console. You listen and give thoughts.
- Brought up surgeon comfort which is why I believe the above. Sitting ergonomically looking at a large screen is best IMO.
- Smaller footprint in OR. This makes me think of Google developed, DLR or Titan. Samsung's system just looks big, but it's possible still.
- They said they are close to issuing more information on direction very soon. (next few weeks)
What I find interesting is Titan should be out of funds or running on fumes right now. No company waits til 12th hour to almost run out of funds before doing a raise unless they have something in back pocket. Not saying it's J&J, but Titan has to have $ coming from somewhere and very soon. Did J&J tell them to sit tight and quite while we dot the I's & cross the T's????
We'll all find out in next few weeks/months it sounds like. If it's a MA with Google/J&J it could be big. If not we're in trouble IMO as J&J just duplicated the customer needs identical to what Titan is trying to deliver. Titan would be in competition with Intuitive and Google/J&J and I personally wouldn't like their odds of success.
That's the million $ question. Once we know this a lot of other things will fall in place. I'm still wondering what is taking so long for Warren Robotic approval in US. We're 3 1/2 months past the date they said it would be approved.
I think Samsung, DLR, Titan & even maybe Raven are probably all in play for Google/J&J. Also, even though it's been said Google will only be involved with software maybe they have a system they've developed in secret. Otherwise why did Google get 70% of Warren Robotics ownership.
I've searched and I think others have also and have found no patents for Google or J&J (Ethicon) on a surgical robot. That's why I believe they have already purchased or partnered with someone. You don't develop robotic instruments for a robot you don't have a stake in already. We'll find out soon enough because Google/J&J wouldn't do all this work without a deal done and in writing.
What makes me question the Google/J&J/Titan deal is this:
Titan announced the instrument supplier agreement in April and J&J is just hiring for these positions now. The SPORT human clinical trial is supposed to start in Q3 2016. That doesn't leave a ton of time to get everything done.
I agree that J&J doing MA with Titan is still not even over 25% probable at this point. I do think a lot of these little signs could point that way though.
I just don't see Titan going it alone in the long term. This would be way to costly to get going. Battling a giant like Intuitive will take deep pockets that Titan just doesn't have. I think Titan has already been made offers they didn't like and will continue towards market to drive offer prices up.
I disagree completely with the idea that it's too big a secret to keep. Most MA rumors that get out end up falling through or never were on the table to start. The MA's & partnerships that get done are completely out of left field usually (ie. Medtronic/Covidien & Google/J&J).
http://surgrob.blogspot.com/2015/08/samsungs-single-port-surgical-robot.html
I do find it interesting that all jobs are related to surgical instruments only. Also, back to what we've all discussed that Titan has partnered with a "worldwide instrument supplier" that they will not disclose. Why not disclose this? Only two options:
1 - the supplier also manufactures for Intuitive and doesn't want their name out there.
2 - the supplier is a possible partner or more and wants to remain anonymous for now.
Also notice the addition in almost all the new J&J job postings:
"develop highly articulated surgical instruments to interface with a novel surgical robot"
Has anyone seen a more highly articulated arm/instrument than Titan? I can't think of one I've seen, but would love to hear if anyone else has. How does Samsung's robot articulate?
I hope you're correct! As others have said there will be an announcement soon no matter what. What it will be is the question.
The reasons I tend to lean toward believing you for once (other than the 6.5 Billion craziness!):
1 - Why would Titan wait so long to raise more $ when we all know they're very close to running out? Maybe they knew what was coming and were never worried about it.
2 - What has taken so long with the Warren Robotics US approval? Have they been spending time negotiating and couldn't get US approval until negotiations were done.
3 - J&J just closed the sale of Cordis for $2 Billion today.
4 - The percentage of the Warren Robotic deal in India raised questions for me. Why is Google a 70% owner & J&J is 30%? They said Google will only provide software so why would they own 70%? Are they going to buy out a robot company and close the deal with % of Warren Robotic stock out of Google's shares? Could Titan be it and become 40% owner of Warren Robotics with Google & J&J as partners?
All speculation and I still think the odds are if an announcement is made it will be:
1 - Cash raise
2 - Completion of 1st SPORT system.
L&S
Thanks SurgGuy. That does make sense to merge the systems, but that will take a fair amount of time to accomplish. I would imagine that it would be at least 2-3 years before we would see a surgical robot that blends the two technologies together. By then you have a new improved Davinci, Google/JNJ, Medtronic and possibly Titan.
What am I missing here? There's a reason TRXC paid $100MM for Alf X, I just can't see why.
Just in a brief glance the robot looks outdated already. Each instrument has it's own separate arm & boom. Not many OR rooms will be able to fit this machine. There has to be technology being worked on behind the scenes that lead to this.
I'm just confused as to why a company pays $100MM for an outdated technology unless they have something being worked on. Everyone is working on moving to smaller more flexible technology and this thing is gigantic!
Nope. Just in India.
The closing of the transaction is subject to clearance under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act and other customary closing conditions. The transaction is expected to close during the second quarter of 2015. Financial terms were not disclosed.
Still waiting for some reason it's delayed?
That would be interesting to find out if she received some options and how many.
More important is what's going on with the J&J/Google partnership? Was supposed to close at end of 2nd QTR. Here we are almost 2 months later with just India approval. Did Google forming Alphabet delay the deal????
Once that domino falls I think we start to see the big picture of where robotic surgery players fall. We're just 4 months away from multiple SPORTS being finished supposedly. We'll find out a lot in next 6 months for sure.
Also, when do we get the announcement of how many shares they add to raise more $. They're getting low on cash by now. I hope it's not all $45MM.
PUMPER....He's bringing up info we've all know since she was hired. Claiming she gets a BIG payout if Titan is sold.
She gets $20K a month for doing who knows what. She gets $120K if Titan is sold. What's her incentive to work hard on a M&A? She's getting $20K a month for sitting back and watching the stock lose half it's value.
Now if she had stock options that would make her rich on an M&A that's different.
Just sit back and be patient as others have said. No news and people are throwing **** at the wall to see what sticks.
Completely agree...scratching my head as to why Google would get 70% and J&J divided up their share between Ethicon and JJDC. All press says that Google will just do software and sensors. What are we missing here that Google would get 70% of Warren Robotics??? Google is going to be doing more work than being disclosed.
maybe this is why Google getting 70% of Warren Robotics?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/google-secretly-released-version-glass-202726171.html
http://pdfpiw.uspto.gov/.piw?Docid=09094677&homeurl=http%3A%2F%2Fpatft.uspto.gov%2Fnetacgi%2Fnph-Parser%3FSect1%3DPTO2%2526Sect2%3DHITOFF%2526u%3D%25252Fnetahtml%25252FPTO%25252Fsearch-adv.htm%2526r%3D24%2526p%3D1%2526f%3DG%2526l%3D50%2526d%3DPTXT%2526S1%3D%252522google%252522%2526OS%3D%252522google%252522%2526RS%3D%252522google%252522&PageNum=&Rtype=&SectionNum=&idkey=NONE&Input=View+first+page
New J&J patent for single port access system. It was originally filed for in 2009, but modified and reapplied for. Just granted 2 weeks ago. Looks like the J&J/Google robot might be a single port. That leaves developing their own, intuitive, Surgibot or SPORT if it is single port. Any other single port robots being developed?
http://pdfpiw.uspto.gov/.piw?Docid=09078695&homeurl=http%3A%2F%2Fpatft.uspto.gov%2Fnetacgi%2Fnph-Parser%3FSect1%3DPTO2%2526Sect2%3DHITOFF%2526u%3D%25252Fnetahtml%25252FPTO%25252Fsearch-adv.htm%2526r%3D29%2526p%3D1%2526f%3DG%2526l%3D50%2526d%3DPTXT%2526S1%3D%252522Ethicon%252522%2526OS%3D%252522Ethicon%252522%2526RS%3D%252522Ethicon%252522&PageNum=&Rtype=&SectionNum=&idkey=NONE&Input=View+first+page