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It depends on what day it is. Honestly, I sometimes think its positive and sometimes think its negative.
The black blob always was, and still is, an area identified with a "?".
Nobody outside of this board ever said it was highly prospective. It is an unknown.
The ground water you mentioned was more to the east... and too salty to be used without desalinization.
You are right. I check and the source of that info was also Oilnewskenya.
It would be very helpfulto the share price if they announced "Egole-1 has spudded". It would show that they liked what they found at Tarach.
You're just a few miles from their headquarters. Go do to the courthouse and ask that they subpoena ERHC to comply with material disclosure laws.
If you think they are hiding the results, force them to disclose.
Flappin' your keyboard here accomplishes nothing.
That's totally false.
What September drilling? Egole was postponed "indefinitely".
Asbey's resume contains a lot of entries surrounding well testing. Whether that was the hat he was wearing at Tarch-1, I don't know.
"anything is possible but I have not seen a single positive sign"
Could that be because you ignore anything and everything that doesn't sound negative?
How about this... they are negotiating for full carry through production. I posted the idea before. However, see the sentence above.
Karma will get them eventually.
Yeah, we could get to 10 CENTS!!! Right?
Even middy admits $10 is possible if the *block* is successful. That means as many as another dozen wells and a couple of years. How much of ERHE's share will they have to part with for a full carry? Remember, carry is a *loan* that gets paid back from cost oil, and they pay interest on that loan. If Tarach is a success, CEPSA should offor a carry for a reasonably small part of ERHC's share.
No, that's no wishful thinking. ERHC will already be paying interest on that loan. Any percentage they have to give is simply incentive to provide the loan.
Who knows, maybe ERHC sell a few percent to Offor for direct financing.
The point is, once there is oil, there are 100's of ways to finance development.
The cumulative volume since that article was posted is 2.62 million shares. That's double counted, so 1.31 million shares have been sold in the last week.
Less than 3% of the outstanding shares were sold over the course of en entire week *after* your proclaimed end of the world news... which was only published on one website that itself said, "if true"?
If this were a "game over" scenario millions and millions of shares would be flooding the market.
New Global Acreage Resourses, RAP.P, and 0.09
The volume is zero almost every day since January... still an idea, not a company.
I believe their initial plan was to either take ERHC's assets for pennies if they have NO integrity, or sell ERHC and use their profits from that in RAP.P if they are honest men.
Because amateur management still has not taken convertible debt off the table. Until they do, or a hostile takeover jumps at us, this stock will have a very hard time moving.
There can only be 3 reasons for not hearing anything yet...
1.) they are still analyzing what they found.
2.) it was a dry hole and we're toast.
3.) it is a bona fide discovery and they are negotiating a carry arrangement going forward.
It was an "article", not "news".
Referring to that article...
1.) "OilNews Kenya cannot however verify whether any hydrocarbons were encountered during the drilling."
That would be the first question any reputable reporter would ask, yet this one didn't.
2.) "it is unclear whether a planned second exploratory well , the Egole-1"
Egole-1 was postponed indefinitely months ago. The "reliable source" didn't know THAT???
3.) "The news if true..."
A reporter calling into question the data in his own article? No other news source has picked up the story and/or validated any part of it... and the trading volume for the entire week since the article has been less than 2.5% of the shares outstanding.
This "story" smells of someone that may have heard otherwise tanking the share price to load up... and the steady increasing price since the article backs that up.
There are 42M shares outstanding and in strong hands. The total cumulative volume (buy and sell) since the article was posted on this board, including today's volume so far, is 2.62M shares.
Eliminate the double counting and 1.31M shares have been sold since the article... just 3% of the shares held have been sold since last Wednesday.
They other 97% are being held. I could be wrong, but it looks like the "story" was intended to cause a drop in price, which it did, and the buyer of those shares was likely the "source".
Have you watched the share price climbing back up? Nobody's buying the story, they are buying the shares.
It still could be true, but I don't think so.
No. There isn't.
That website announce Cheptucket as a dry hole 5 days before Tullow announce 700M of oil shows.
I'll wait for the company to tell us, it won't be long.
Either the website or the "source" seems to be releasing false info and buying the "sale" they created only to profit from the soon released "real" news of a discovery.
As dishonest as that is I hope and pray it is true in this case!
Agreed. CEPSA has no reporting requirements, why PR a failure... if the well is a failure?
ERHC Energy on the other hand has reporting requirements. There is nothing more material in the entire history of the company than this well, yet days after an article says the well disappointed they have said nothing?
They are either ignoring the article because it is false and immaterial, or they are very, very far over the line on the "material events" reporting requirements, or... don't let this one shock you... they will report well results when work on the well is completed... like Keeney said.
We could argue that "work" could include plug and abandon, site cleanup, environmental restoration, etc. It could b many months before we get results. The longer they play that game, the lower the share price goes. They did that with the JDZ... we still haven't had a comprehensive report on the wells drilled there.
If they had shows in this well, announce it. Soon. If they don't...
announce plan B... C... D... or whatever letter they are on by now.
Block 11 had little to no seismic. Block 4 has substatially more. That adds value. It is possible that they've had an offer or offers with cash and carry, but for more % than they want to part with. With their back against the wall I can't imagine any offer being "nice".
"Let us think about it" awaiting Tarach-1 results is what I'd do. If Tarach hits they are in a much stronger position. If Tarach is a dud, they grit their teeth and take it like men.
Remember the last filing in the "going concern' statement...
"Management believes that the Company’s current operating strategy will provide the opportunity for the Company to continue as a going concern"
What else could it be? Please don't say dilution, with this market cap they can't raise enough to buy a Happy Meal. That's a non-starter.
I wonder if we would be reading "the fact that results have already been reported by third parties" if the article said oil was found?
Everyone knows the answer. It's "No".
Let's wait for the company to release the official results before calling an article where the author qualifies his own article with "if true" a fact.
I didn't say "sell", I'm thinking farm-in.
Total confidence pre-drill that they would succeed?
I suspect they've had a less than generous EEZ offer in hand that they have refused to accept pending the Tarach-1 outcome. Success at Tarach, negotiate better terms. Failure at Tarach-1, accept the less than generous offer.
We'll see soon enough.
I'll wait for CEPSA/ERHC to announce results. It's simple, really.
His B.M.'s are like anyone elses...
it's all chit if it doesn't come from the company(s).
Don't try to connect me to that Big Jane B.S. I never had anything to do with any of it... in fact I have asked people what the Big Jane rumor was because I never saw anything posted.
I don't watch message boards 24x7.
Agreed. A *lot* is riding on drilling results. It could be the life or death of the company.
Exciting times!
IMO, that is clearly telling us what we need to know. If work on the well is still ongoing 8 weeks after spudding she isn't a dry hole.
Did they blow the Tullow news? Or did they profit from their false report?
Anything for a buck, I guess.
I eagerly await for CEPSA/ERHC to announce official results.
"We have no experts, equipment, money etc etc"
None of that changes the value of oil. At $0.30 with 50M shares out you are valueing the entire company at $15M, that's 1.5M or so barrels of oil.
If that were all they thought was there they wouldn't be drilling a well that cost twice what you say the entire company will be worth if successful.
That is so detached with reality I can't fathom it.
I have a theory... it goes like this:
The value of proven reserves triples as they go from proven undeveloped to proven developed. If the value of the proven undeveloped can be suppressed, a significant risk free 3-4 bagger can be had by buying after a discovery derisks the investment.
That explains that massive time and effort to undermine any talk of valuation spikes on discovery.
*I* am the one that has been posting that Africa Oil took 3 years of drilling, so quit posting lies that I think this will go to $10 with Tarach-1.
The desperation to discredit anyone that feels this well is going to be the start of something very exciting is off the charts.
I have a theory... it goes like this:
The value of proven reserves triples as they go from proven undeveloped to proven developed. If the value of the proven undeveloped can be suppressed, a significant risk free 3-4 bagger can be had by buying after a discovery derisks the investment.
That explains that massive time and effort to undermine any talk of valuation spikes on discovery.
That shows that you don't understand the oil industry. AKPO sold for $7 per barrel. Had the JDZ panned out ERHC would have exceeded even those numbers.
That's the mathematical proportional equivalent to the JDZ estimates vs. market cap during drilling. Ntephe and Odobulu destroyed market trust so bad that we can only achieve 1/10th of what we could in the past.
It's sad.
I predicated it on this well being a success and derisking the rest. Fortunately everyone can see that and disregard this "totally false" nonsense.
None. What other stock trades at 8 cents that should be at $0.80?
You can't pick where it will go based on where it is at. You and middy have played that card to death. It will go to the value of the oil found, period. It could be worth 0.0001 cents per share and go to $10 per share if that is the value of the oil found.
Saying the upside is limited because of where it trades now is silly.
"already issued new toxic debt of $95,000 that we know of"
that could be converted to a paltry 20,000 shares after a discovery... and post discovery the lender may very well choose to hold, since the value of proven undeveloped triples once developed. The "debt" is no longer "toxic" after a discovery.
Simple math.
Whoops, I didn't even make my point!
A discovery at Tarach-1 will be leveraged to fund the next wells, without dilution.
That is if they don't just sell the company outright and leave y'all saying "darn".