Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
The news is good but the market isn't static. Competition is producing new drugs as well. The share price seems to be a function of the expectation of near term monetization. Growing the developed products without the funding of bug pharma may prove to be too slow and get beat to market by competition. Especially with no more HB, who was largely the mind behind a lot of the science.
Supply, demand, meet equilibrium. That's a fair point. I'd venture a guess that there's still some "it may not happen soon" risk holding the price down still. Perhaps the NPV of the current price times the expected delay before payout.
Given all that you just pointed out (and rightfully so), would big pharma really be willing to offer much of a buyout premium over market value for a handful of drugs they know Ariad probably will never be able to monetize without their help? If you were in their shoes, would you?
Was there something important worth replying to?
"Fire the Doctor", they said. "We'll be rich overnight", they said. "It will increase shareholder value", they said.
When Harvey Osborne gets the last laugh, it won't be so funny.
The sentiment seems pretty lopsided to me. I can only think of a few posts I remember seeing someone defend the idea of HB staying. And I check these boards pretty much daily. What other users consistently support HB?
Am I the only one here who finds the notion of ousting a man who's dedicated his life to curing disease from his own company in order to reach a higher short term stock value a bit depressing? Will it help in the short run? Yes. But how much of a driver has HB been for innovation in this company? Is it worth losing the hen that lays the golden eggs to sell the farm quicker? Does this effect ARIAD's long term prospects?
Interested to hear thoughts.
I've been trading Ariad for about 2 years now. I play options every month. Done pretty well. I pop in here from time to time and have for a little over a year. This doesn't happen every month.
This was one of the more epic de-bunkings I've seen on here to date. Best comment on this board since I compared Harvey Berger to the green goblin (Harvey Osborne)... Which the verdict is still out on till everyone finished voting him out of his own company.
This is the kind of thing that turned Osborn into the green goblin. Hope Spider-Man is around to save y'all.
My long term outlook is positive. Which way the wind blows aria on any given day is like trying to predict a coin flip. I'm estimating 9 as the baseline in a month or so.
For every call at 9 there were probably just as many puts. I don't see how manipulation is necessarily a factor. Stocks trade rather strangely before options expire but I think s more rational explanation is that people are just making the moves they need to in preparation for whatever positions will close.
So if HB gets run out of town what would be projected estimates on PPS buyout prices? Presumably a premium over what the market value is currently - even with the upward tried of late.
It's encouraging to see Harvey is buying the stock. I wouldn't put up 150k if the outlook was poor.
LOL! I've wondered that before. Might not the the worst strategy in the world. Not that anyone in this board is materially affecting the price compared to the institutional investors.
On a side note, is the 21 VP rumor I hear floating around occasional true?
New approvals! So logically we can expect another 40 dip in share price...
Don't drink the Kool Aid. Or worse yet take it's advice if it's talking to you. Words to live by. I'm glad scottrade reminded me this stock was still a thing because this message board could go in a text-book example of pump and dump trading.
Presuming the IPO goes favorably. 50 million is a lot of cash to a company the size of Ariad.
Pardon my ignorance. What does this have to do with Ariad?
When the rathole "qualified investors", that your CEO sold the below market shares to before pumping two months of "good news", decide to unload the briefcases of money they no doubt split with Fellner under the table and donate it back to the masses they stole it from.
Or maybe when the outstanding shares somehow ends up below 60 billion for a company generating >100k in revenue.
In other words, never.
I'm no expert though...
Hope you only wasted 100 bucks on those shares. Might be worth the lesson on researching company owners... You know, to look for felony records lol
I had the same thing happen and I haven't owned this pos in months. And we all know it didn't ACTUALLY increase in value lol
Thank you Mershaw! I'm a bit embarrassed I was mis-using a tool like that. I appreciate the correction!
A 5% drop off is pretty meaningless in the short-long changes we see here. Short analytics shows swings from 30 to 65+% in almost every week.
Well at least the insiders aren't dumping after the pump we got from the news today. Maybe once we have a confirmed cure for all forms of cancer we can get back to $7.00. Who knows?
Though to be fair the abstract was not announced by Ariad. So I misspoke.
The abstract zuzie shared about the superiority of ponatinib over pfizer's bosutinib
Ariad announces great news and drops 20 cents on the day. Makes perfect sense to me.
I don't know how well I trust the projections of an analyst ranked in the bottom one percent of his peers...
I use roughly the same strategy but I think you misunderstand the real reason most option purchasers buy. When I buy options it's usually both calls and puts for a price range that allows me to day trade with practically no risk during the options period. It's just an insurance policy.
If you pay $.30 for a month long contract but make 12 $.10 per share trades you more than covered your expenditure. And that is pretty modest expectations.
Looks like we're doing the limbo dance today... How. Low. Can. You. Go.
Makes you wonder what's going on behind the scenes.
Didn't think we'd be seeing 5.30's anytime soon. Foreshadowing of a poison pill perhaps?
What it says is:
1. The big boys knew a day or two before the rest of the world and already did their buying.
2. No news on major R&D developments is bad news. For a company that has overhead + R&D dominating it's P&L the trend line will be a continuous run to zero without the successful development of drugs.
Simple as that.
We aren't like them (institutional investors) though. They're looking for monthly, weekly, daily, even hourly floors and ceilings.
All I'm saying is there isn't some conspiracy to drive price in one direction or another because that requires you as an investor to buy when you really think you should sell and sell when you really think you should buy. Non-sensical.
No one throws themselves in front of a train to stop it's momentum. Just fear, hope, speculation, predictions and rumors guiding the best guesses of investors.
IMHO no one is trying to do anything but find the floors and peaks.
Would you say those warning signals were unique to that crash or have there been a good number of "false alarms" that looked about the same but signaled nothing. It's like Nostradamus predicting everything that happened this century. Throw enough fertilizer at the wall and something will stick.
I'd be interested to see what signals he considered to be red flags and how strong/unique they actually were.
Technical analysis = alchemy
It's all about the outlook for a small biotech company like this. Big enough news and we'll be at 12 in a week. Bad enough news we'll all be homeless using our three dollar Ariad stock tickets as fuel for the alley-way trash can fire we're huddled around.
Or perhaps a healthy dose of both.
It's in keeping with GAAP, since the revenue can't be reasonably estimated (one condition for recognition). This is one of those difference between actual events and what's recorded on the books that investors need to understand.
Good catch SS. You'd have made a good CPA in another life ;)
We didn't learn anything we didn't already know today. The FDA killed Iclusig for a while and slowed it's growth. Ariad didn't slow down their R&D plan moving forward so the reduction in net loss wasn't as great as we'd hoped to see. All we're really seeing is that the plan has been delayed a bit. They made a decent case that confidence was being successfully restored.
If you look at the executive compensation packages, it would make no sense that with the revenue they are getting currently from Iclusig they would be burning through R&D money just grasping for straws. These guys don't get paid any better than they would as self-employed practitioners without the company succeeding long term. It won't be over night though.
Just my humble opinion.