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How high y'all think this is going to run?
$17-19? $19-21? $22+?
What is considered the bottom? 14.92?
I forget emoji don’t show up.
Don’t jinx it blind John! ??
I’m in at $14.98. Waiting for a bounce above $20.00 now.
This is true. I was trying to look back over past charts and predict. It seems to pop every 2-3 months.
Obviously market sentiment news etc all play into effect.
Whoops! I was! Ha.
So VXX, you think once it bottoms out again, it will take off and short squeeze? Next few days to few weeks.
What do you think is likely bounce for it? Based on charts?
Are you saying you think it will drop to 9 and then rise to 12-18?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/vix-short-volatility-stock-market-fears-look-overblown-2017-10
$100million short interest was added. This is the most the VIX has EVER been shorted.
Sooner or later when the whole market switches to bear and we have a full 10%+ correction.
But it’s going to take a hell of a lot to push it over. I expected a bigger dip on SVXY this run.
But like clay trader said on UVXY, if that stock holds $16.50, the inverse of this one, then it could push SVXY lower.
Otherwise this was probably the biggest dip it will have until the market changes.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/vix-short-volatility-stock-market-fears-look-overblown-2017-10
$100million short interest was added. This is the most the VIX has EVER been shorted.
Sooner or later when the whole market switches to bear, that’s when the short squeeze will probably happen. But it’s going to take a hell of a lot to push it over. I expected a bigger bounce on UVXY. But like clay trader said. If it holds $16.50 it could go back up and push a bit higher. Otherwise this was probably the highest bounce it will have until major bad news. Just my opinion, thoughts?
I meant they become non standard 20 or 25 option instead of 100 and liquidity decreases drastically.
That can screw you over.
I’m hoping for $22-28 this run, today/tomorrow
That makes sense. Also with the risk of splits that ruin option chains.
If you just buy the stock. You’re not hurt by them. But man they can screw over options.
The question being is it a 1-2% blip on S&P.
A 3% multi-day correction.
Or a 10%+ month long downturn 2008 style.
How long term are you thinking?
I think it’s due for a sizable pop! But then will likely continue its downward direction unless the overall market corrects.
So you think a 3-20% market correction is coming in the next 6 months?
Guess emojis don’t work. ‘:)
Thanks ha. I might hedge my bet with a very small call in case of a huge market correction.
Well I plan to buy put options once this tops out lol. And the candles on the chart show signs of reversing! Heh.
http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=UVXY
Average volume 16 mil. Last few days 30 mil.
With 6 mil short, I’m hoping for a 50mil plus day ending above $18 today.
Notice the word hope. Lol this is merely a guess and not trading advice!
There are 6 million shares short.
I think today and tomorrow this will run 10%+. Too many shorts
That’s what I thought. I just wanted clarification. I think it’s been hammered to death now lol. The wording could be taken two ways.
And since like fuzzy said, I’m no expert, I wanted to ask, even at the risk of sounding stupid.
True! Or I just move to 60 day options and sell around 20-30 days left assuming I timed the market and future news correctly and managed to beat the time-decay value of the option. Or buy right below the money and sell on the flip side right above the money.
Sarcastically - so few variables.
High risk = huge gains/losses.
So it seems you trade options often.
A question I asked on another board was long call options on SVXY vs long put options on UVXY.
Same principle, different leverages. It would seem the long put on UVXY would return more than a long call on SVXY. Assuming you don’t get sidewhacked by a reverse split and get stuck in an option contract you can’t sell and don’t want to convert to stock.
Also assuming no major market correction like ‘08.
There’s lots of people claiming another large correction is due this quarter or early 2018.
We just hit a new record for number of days without a 3% correction. So I think a small pullback is due.
$2448 is where a lot of chartists show it would probably hit on the S&P.
Correct - call it, purchase the stock, and own it, or simply resell the contract depending on how things play out.
That’s what I had always read and seen from experience. That the fee is essentially ‘invisible’ it’s worked into the resets of ETF which are daily or monthly depending on which ETF.
Option contracts are based on the price of the ETF so if the stock is $100. The call option for $110 is out of the money and let’s say .20-.25 (bid/ask) or $20-$25 a contract for a 30 day.
20 days in the stock is at $110, now my contract price is in the money, $1.2-$1.3 or $120-$130 per contract.
If I bought $.30 and sold at $1.3 a contract, I would profit $100 a contract. Minus the broker fee ~$6.99 + .50 a contract in and out.
There’s no extra ‘premium’ that you have to pay for purchasing an option contract for ETF.
Obviously theoretical numbers and a nice play out.
I have read a good bit. Asking questions can be a good way to learn and find information.
You don’t know the amount of $ I’m using.
Experience of going through the process is a good way to learn.
Usually premium is the income received by an investor who sells or "writes" an option contract to another party and thus is the option contract price.
ETF have a fee associated with trading them if you hold them overnight. That fee is worked into the price changes and not something you get a bill for at the end of trading or end of year.
He made it sound like there is a fee on top of contract price for buying an ETF option. I haven’t heard of this before. So I was double checking.
Yeah I figured it was the same as buying stock, it’s worked out into the price. So it doesn’t affect much other then added time value decrease.
How do you know what that premium is?
I was considering 60-90 day put options on the UVXY after it spikes.
I thought it was just the contract price?
What are the premiums?
8 reverse splits. Couldn’t find share structure, but it still trades average of 20mil shares a day. So we are a long way from reaching 0 shares.
Budget passed unlocks hurdle for tax reform.
https://www.google.com/amp/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/1AAFABBC-B552-11E7-87F4-F3579E138DD6
Happened yesterday. Possibly why stocks are never letting up in trend the are on.
I agree, however it still has blips of resetting along the path up
Good lord. I still think over the next week or two we will see a bounce UVXY or breather on the market.
Once this reaches 50+ RSI on the 6 month chart over the next few days I’m going to get long term 30+ days put options on UVXY.
3-4 day run is my guesstimate if it holds and continues to strengthen. Maybe only 2 days if it pushes real hard.
Due for a pop $20-32?
3rd Tuesday. Thanks!