Yes he was short MBS related to AIG. So when he voted TARP funds to prop up AIG, some of those funds ended up directly in Corkers pocket. What a swamp rat he is, but there are plenty of those in DC. Congress, WH, and staffers break laws and there is no equal justice.

I can see Yuma coming on the horizon. Your trains are heading to Yuma town.

I agree with you on the SCOTUS vote, but for different reasons.
Sotomayor and Kagan know the takeover was nationalization, but think the govt should run everything anyway. If the govt can tell someone what their beliefs are(Little Sisters), they should have unlimited power. Robert from yahoo posted a few things that confirmed my prior opinion of Kagan. Thanks!

Roberts goal is to have the court be non-political, but in trying to accomplish that he has been in on some of the most political decisions they have made since he was appointed. He rewrote the ACA language in that opinion and stepped all over what was actually passed.

As a liberal justice, I think Breyer is a wildcard(joker?) in this case. I would have put him firmly against us except for listening to the oral hearings. It seems like he understood the GSEs were nationalized and this hurt the little guys along with the greedy hedgies.

Assuming the 5 conservatives also vote for the plaintiffs the gses win 6-3. Maybe the vote is 5-4 if Breyer gets convinced the theft is acceptable.

Of course this is just my prediction, feel free to dismantle it. Im sure certain known posters will.

Another tidbit from Paglaria's book is regarding events in 2008. Bush Admin sent false financial information to Bloomberg News and Barrons about financial stress and possible govt takeover of fannie.

The kicker is that Bloomberg Markets Richard Teitelbaum wrote a story titles "How Paulson Gave Hedge Funds Advance Word of Fannie Rescue". On July 21, 2008 at Eton Park Capital Mgmt Paulson described a 'possible scenario' of govt taking over fannie.

Paglaria relied on a data hound named Ciklin to ferret out info that every single fund represented at that meeting was short fannie at the takeover. Page 194-196.

For some reason the book has an entire epilogue attempting to figure out why Paulson did it and praising him. Excuses are that he was an investment banker at GS, not a mortgage finance guy, so the fannie haters in govt misled him. Or that he intended the conservatorship temporarily necessary to get over the crisis. I thought that was mostly BS. He was a GS guy, and saw a chance to fix the crisis AND allow the banks to put the industry and profits into the big banks.

Looks like you put some thought into you calculations using worst case scenarios, which isnt a bad exercise. So IMO your share price estimate is absolute minimum after recap/release.
But if SCOTUS rules in plaintiffs favor or shareholders win in other lawsuits, then Treasury gets to negotiate with a $300Bil sword of damocles hanging over them. They might be willing to make a deal for warrants or capitalization under that circumstance.

Thats wishful thinking wrapped in hope with a gooey center of confirmation bias.
Most of the Biden admin economic advisors are former employees of CEPR and EPI. Those orgs have pretty much socialist leanings who would love to keep the GSEs in thrall to keep deferring mortgage payments.
There is no motivation for this admin to release the GSE shares to 'greedy hedge funds' when the admin can use them for social engineering.

On Paglaria's book cost-I got it digitally via Amazon for a buck. So about half a fannie share. Its a pretty easy and quick read for 250 pages.

I finished it last night and the ending was about as satisfactory as Python's The Holy Grail. IF the cops come and arrest everybody involved that would help the ending.

He covered GSE history pretty well but the last event listed was Sept 2019 En banc and Calabria allowing gses to retain some earnings.

My guess is he will do a revision or another book when the coming gse end game is complete.

I've posted here on ihub a few times but didn't realize the custom was to introduce yourself first, so here it is.
I am an engineer, have an MBA, and buddies with make_it. Been a neanderthal-American in Texas since the 80s, as reflected in the handle.

FNMA stock first came on my radar during the Nader runup, was that in 2013? Wow. Bought a few shares then, too high, been adding since until I had my max allowable of 8% of portfolio a couple years ago. I wont be specific on the amount but I am over 60 so its a good bit. Sold a bit of fannie last year to harvest some losses for taxes, but switched to about the same share count as freddie. Now about 50/50, all in commmons.

Ive been a lurker here a long time and would like to thank posters like navy, brooge, Guido, Robert, bunch of others for helping spread the word on the theft. BTW where is oberdictum at a time like this?

Ive been reading Paglaria's book the last few days so may have more to say on that.

Wait a minute, isn't being both regulator and conservator a conflict of interest? So shouldn't FHFA report itself to itself? Oh, never mind.....

I have a better rumor. SCOTUS voted on COllins today. All their interns went out and bought shares in their Robin Hood accounts.
What the hell. Makes about as much sense as anything with this stock.

SCOTUS decisions for this session have to be published by July 2.
Someone posted the average time between hearing and publishing is about 90 days, which would be early March. I would not expect 'average' on Collins.
I expect it will come out in June, but hope for March.

https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/2020TermCourtCalendar.pdf
or

Thats exactly what I thought. They have time to work on this case now.
Maybe it will come out within 90 days. Worst case is late Jun, or July 2nd.

Prediction for the SCOTUS arguments:
Collins: They forced the board to vote for conservatorship.
Catman: We just told them-we're from the govt and we are here to help.
Collins: They stole $120 billion!
Catman: Like I said, we helped ourselves to $120 billion.

This may not go well for FHFA.

I dont know where those figures came from but I checked the math.
$280k x .5% fee = $1400. That is reasonable.
Plug that into my handy HP10B finance calculator:
For a mortgage of 3% over 30 years the fee would be an impact of $5.90/mo.

To get to $15/mo impact on a 3% mortgage, the loan term would have to be about 7.5 years.

In olden times 7 years was about average for how long people stayed in a house, but I doubt very many $240k loans have a term that short.

Of course a squid is interested in sea cucumber poop.
He is on the lookout for another turd to polish.

So plaintiffs get discovery in the Lamberth court? This would be my first statement-Please turn over the 11k documents. Thanks!
Then let the contents of those start leaking to the press between now and the election.