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Am I correct that, if the trial is successful, the time between announcement of trial results and the BLA submission will be around 6 months?
I have a modest amount of shares, but at current SP, my holdings are already worth more than my annual salary. I've been in and out of CVM several times over the past decade, but I've held about 2/3 of my current shares for 3 years, and the rest I've been able to swing to increase my holdings. I'm determined to wait out the trial results, and now thinking about taxes. The shares that I swing could actually be long-term gains by March of next year. Just wondering if anyone here has some insight... I have the worst luck trying to time things out, and just trying to decide, given my decision to hold through announcement of results, if it would be worth holding the shares I keep for swing-trading. If the trial results are positive, and are released in, say, mid-June, would that mean the BLA would be submitted around December? Meaning that a response from the FDA could come around March of next year? Not asking for advice, of course, just wondering how other, more-knowledgeable longs approach the prospect of short-term gains tax vs. long-term gains tax with situations like CVM, where the potential is so great.
Wow... Great job! Thank you so much for sharing this here, Sushi. Much appreciated.
Robot, I found this:
"Biden’s plan is expected to call for a 39.6% top tax rate on long-term capital gains, up from the current 20%. The tax would apply to returns on assets held more than a year and to taxpayers with more than $1 million in income.
When combined with a Medicare surtax on investment earnings, the top federal capital-gains tax rate would be 43.4%."
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/27/biden-capital-gains-tax-plan-could-raise-113-billion-if-step-up-is-killed.html
Thank you, Sushi, for this insight. I remember that you have made this point a few times here and on ST in recent weeks, and I've been watching for the form. Hoping to see it before June.
I second that! Excellent insight, Bio. Thank you so much for taking the time to post!
Sab, I wanted to thank you for your posts. I rarely post here because, aside from having some education in the base medical sciences, I am largely ignorant with regards to investing, doing dd, reading stock charts, etc, and therefore have very little of value to contribute to the conversation. Furthermore, my teaching job and side gigs keep me occupied to the point that I don't have a lot of time to devote to training to be a successful investor.
That is why I read (almost) every comment posted on this board everyday- to learn about what I need to learn about. (Also, I am a long, been following CVM since 2013, been holding most of my current shares for ~3 years).
I just wanted to say that I have learned a lot from your posts, and I very much appreciate the efforts you make to post here. Please do not let some skepticism or opinions of a few posters keep you from posting here. You play an important part here for many in our community, and I believe I am not the only one here grateful for your market insights. Also, I hope you are faring well.
Biobonic, thank you for this excellent perspective.
Geert hates the shorts. He wants to see this go badly for them, he wants to punish them. They have made his job much less appealing for years. All of the years he had to arrange stock sales to investors that gave warrants for each share sold... with the end of the P3 trial literally years away, he was never bargaining from a position of strength, and I feel like he had to grovel a little (or a lot) to get the funding that Cel-Sci needed (and to jump at every chance to be interviewed by some podcaster or youtuber who inevitably would pronounce his name wrong...). The shorts' manipulation of the SP made this even worse. So, from this perspective, and given the news of the change on the clinical trials website (not a guaranteed date of data release, I agree with Sushi and Fox), I wonder if Geert is playing a brilliant game - goading the shorts into false confidences, while giving the longs an opportunity to purchase more shares at what will be comparably cheap prices if the P3 data is good bc of the shorts doing what they do. I trust Geert, insofar as he obviously believes in what they are doing. He has far more to lose than all other individual investors.
Yup. I'm in the same boat there, lol...
I'm 1 and 1. I did quite well on Titan Pharma, TTNP, when they received FDA approval for Probuphine, and then got out. Then I sank a lot of my earnings into NVAX, and lost my shirt. I've been following CVM for almost 10 years, and really hoping (for the science and the patients as much as for the profit) that CVM hits it out of the park.
I am also of the opinion that AVDL will be a low-risk investment into 2022, with recent FDA acceptance of their NDA for FT218, and the PDUFA date set for Oct. 15th. You might look into it, do some DD. I would like to take some profit from CVM and put it there.
Hi Jim. I've been reading all of your posts. Thank you for the insight and reinvigorated in-depth discussion you've brought to this board of late. I hope that, in this case, The Tape is wrong and that news isn't announced tomorrow - I got burned bad on Novavax back in 2017, and they announced on a Thursday afternoon. A failed (really, more ambiguous, but "failed" from the viewpoint of the market) PII trial, and the stock dropped 85% afterhours. Maybe only because of this particular incident, but I am inclined to assume that news on Thursday or Friday is always bad. I would think that they would want to release good news earlier in the week. Anyway, hoping that any news is good news here.
Interesting article that I thought I would share. Doesn't mention CVM specifically, but it bodes well for the space:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/19/biden-says-us-will-work-to-end-cancer-as-we-know-it-after-covid-pandemic.html
I have friends in Abilene and in Dallas. I haven't heard from my Dallas people. My Abilene friends were melting snow in order to be able to flush the toilet... I know it's not worth much, but sending prayers and wishing all Texan-Americans health and a quick return to normalcy. We had more snow in Western KY than I've ever seen in my 28 years here.
You and the family all okay? My power went out for a few hours, on Monday night, and temps were in single digits. Scary stuff.
Thanks for posting that link. How in the world did our stock price rise 12% on Friday if 50% of the volume was shares being shorted?!? I'm not a super-knowledgeable investor, so I just can't understand how these numbers are what they are and the stock not take a nose-dive. Not complaining that it didn't, though!
I have to say, I keep expecting our stock price to drop back into the teens. As much as this stock as been manipulated by shorts for so long, I keep expecting to see a big short attack. I'm not complaining, by any means; I am thrilled to see it keeping a valuation over $21. And daily volume has been great since last week's weirdness. I would love to see it retain this price area or go higher until we get news, but experience with this stock makes me nervous about staying too hopeful. Any thoughts? I know some on here have posted expectations that it will drop because of shorts. As the week has developed, are there any new opinions on why it will or won't? (Asking for a friend.)
I wish I could tell you, but I only have a cash account. I've never had a margin account. I haven't received any notifications from Ameritrade asking if they can borrow or loan out my shares, but my position is rather insignificant at 1500 shares (currently), so I don't know if it would even be on their radar.
As a side note, I saw your post the other day, and I would like to offer my respects and my sincerest thanks for your service to our nation.
I agree wholeheartedly. I sold off some of my position on Wednesday, got really lucky, and got back everything I had invested in CVM plus a small profit plus the rest of my position are free shares. I don't wish the shorts well, and they have made being invested here a mental and emotional burden at times. But if they coordinate an attack and significantly drop the price, then, since there's nothing I can do about that, I will gladly buy back the shares I sold plus more free shares. ...that is, ASSUMING Ameritrade will actually let me buy shares...
Ahhh... Wow... I never realized that margin accounts could be used this way. I mean, it never occurred to me that someone might have several accounts, much less hundreds (or thousands)! Thanks for taking the time to explain it to me. I appreciate you.
I am so far removed from Margin Account status. I don't know squat about them. How could they be "weaponized"? And I fully understand if nobody has time to explain this to a long-time noob.
A war? Is this a social movement?? In the vein of Occupy Wall St?
Yeah, I've read a little about it. The Reddit group, or something, bringing market manipulation to the broad public's attention. I like the intention, but it's making the game even more confusing for my worthless amateur ass.
So this isn't investment advice, it's just a tip: it will probably be a good time to take a small profit anytime from here until close because I just sold 25% of my long position. So it should be going up quickly now. :/
Man... the author of that article was NOT very complimentary of CVM:
"I'm less familiar with CEL-SCI, but fellow Fool.com writer Brian Orelli recently explained that investors were far too quick to embrace the company's progress in developing effective tests for head and neck cancers. This microcap stock belongs at the very bottom of your watch list for further investigation."
But, even bad press is good press, and all that...
You make some good points. I wish I had been sharper with my strategy, but the price move caught me off guard, and I'm working today, too, so I haven't been able to devote my full attention to it. Do you have any thoughts about what the inevitable stock offering will do to the rise in price as it starts to go up in earnest, assuming positive results?
I tried to find news too, and couldn't. Ameritrade didn't indicate when halts were happening, either. Or, at least, I didn't see them. So I was confused about how to proceed. Congrats on the profits. I'd take some now, but then TLD would be revealed and I'd lose out. Because that is my way...
:(
Well, I'm starting to think that this price action is just a phenomenon resulting from GME and Geert's tweet. I hope I'm wrong and that we get results today or soon, but... I'm kind of thinking this is going to settle back down and slowly drop as we wait another month or two for results... Wish I knew how to play this game better, I would have taken some profit this morning and bought back in for some freebies... :(
Thank you so much for the early explanation of the upcoming forms. I didn't know any of this, but now I know that this is something to look for and research. Many many thanks.
To the CVM community here, I wish you all a very Happy New Year. I rarely post, as I am an amateur investor with very little of substance to add to the conversation, but I read every post here with great interest. I would like to extend my most sincere and heart-felt thanks to Fosco, Sushifishman, Lightrock, Cotton, Biobonic, Sab, Robot, G8, Master, (what happened to Learning Curve?), and others who momentarily escape me, for teaching me so much over the years. While the conversation here sometimes (unfortunately) takes a negative turn, nonetheless I have found immense value in the information and the perpectives that are shared here. Though I do not contribute often, I do think about the individuals whose posts I read, and I wonder about how each of you is doing. To everyone, thank you so much. I wish for each of you a very prosperous and safe New Year. May 2021 have many better things in store than 2020 did (shouldn't be hard to do...)
I have done as much DD as I know how to do over the past decade with Cel-Sci, and for personal (family) reasons, I want to believe in what Cel-Sci is doing. If anything, the company has true grit. I pray that they have discovered something that will benefit humanity, particularly those who suffer from the absolute horrors of cancer. We need more positivity in this world as badly as we need new treatments. As we head into 2021, I would like to wish everyone here the best of luck in all endeavors. If Multikine is a success, I will certainly profit, though I will not become rich. If they fail, I will lose money, but at least the lessons learned from the company's 30+ years of efforts in this direction will have made significant contributions to the knowledge that our best and brightest can use to create new, better treatments in the future, as they will surely be needed. I apologize for the long-winded post, and certainly don't expect any replies. This was meant merely to be a Thank You to so many who have taught me so much. Blessings and peace to all, and best of luck. Happy New Year.
What an absolutely beautiful response to the piffle of an obvious short lol...
Sushifishman, thank you for another excellent article. I was curious about the minutes from Aintree Hospital that you quote in your article. I followed the link, and was glad to see that the date on the minutes was October 2nd 2015. However, the statement that "..observed effects of the drug have shown significant reduction in size of tumour..." from the minutes doesn't necessarily imply that the study researchers there at Aintree had witnessed this themselves. Could this not simply have been a reference to the final PII trial? Wondering what your thoughts are on this. Reading through the rest of the minutes doesn't show any other comments regarding observations from any of the other studies mentioned taking place under that facility's purview.
Teaching doesn't pay squat, but I'm a guitar player with benefits and lots of autonomy, so it's not a terrible gig. Is that a video of your band?!?
Great tune! Never heard of these guys before.
I believe we will only hear something about the P3 data on a Friday if the data is bad. This would be timed as such to allow investors to take the news in stride and not completely freak out. Assuming the data is good, we will most likely receive the news pre-market on a Monday or Tuesday, or maybe in the last 30 min of trading with the stock on hold until after the announcement.
It may be that the company won't have the option to "time" the release of the news regardless of how the data turned out. I don't claim to know how these things work, but I did read here from someone that the company would have 72 hours to inform investors of the data after receiving it. If that is the case, and the company receives the data on a Tuesday, I guess we could maybe hear about it on a Friday. However, if the data is good, and the company CAN time it, they will not want to release it on a Friday. They will want to release good news at the beginning of the week, so that the share price has a blazing fire under it for the trading week, instead of smoldering coals that have been cooling for an entire weekend before trading can begin. Just my two cents...
Ha! I hear you. Same thing with me. Hence my job. "Those who can, do; those who can't, teach."
Some beautiful analogies there. I loved that! I am the founder/director of a guitar studio at a small, regional university, and I very much enjoyed your explanation. Do you play?
LMAO!!! I agree, that article was a total booger. Full disclosure: I only read about half of the article, and then just couldn't stomach it any further. Posted it just to keep all in the loop insofar as the shorts' antics are concerned.
I suspect that, once the Russell rebalancing begins on May 8th, it will be quite telling as to which way this will ultimately go. ...could this drop in price be connected to that?
By "Data readout Friday evening imo," do you mean to suggest that Cel-Sci will publicly release the data from PIII on Friday evening? Aside from it being too early for data as yet, I feel confident that the data won't be released to the public any time on any Friday unless the data is bad news.
Does anyone know how long Cel-Sci can hold onto the data once they've received it from the independent 3rd party before they are required to publicly release it?