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OK, so you think we bounce further from here before continuing the downtrend? Could be. But I think we still will hit a new low this week. I expect at least 10-12% down from the top before any meaningful bounce.
No, I hadn't. Not something I generally watch. Going down, what's your take on it?
OK, so who's loading up today back in short? I think we get at least one more leg down before any kind of substantial bounce.
surf, the problem I see is that most traders have preconceived notions on what the market is "supposed to do" and are unable to just go with the flow. Any kind of market bias will quickly kill a trader. JMHO.
Expect in the next couple of days the talking heads start talking about "contagion" from Turkey. I don't think this is even close to over.
We've seen this same story with currency crisis in history over, and over. The ending is always the same. The story goes like this: Lot's of panic, market recovers a little after damage control tries to make it seem not so bad, truth comes out and market continues to selloff. Smoke clears and the market is much higher a year later. So, I think using the final wave of panic as the time to load up long will be the game plan for me. This will be exactly the time when everyone else is selling, taking, losses, and piling on short only to get trapped. JMHO.
what I'm saying is if the fed will stop the taper, then the market will continue up. So no, don't short when overbought, take profits on longs, then load up when oversold. Much easier and has worked flawlessly since the fed started QE.
Even if the fed doesn't stop the taper, it certainly will if the market takes a 15% correction. I don't see a repeat of 2000 just yet.
I agree and think we can go down lower. What I was referring to was your comment that if during Wednesday's Fed meeting they decide to stop the taper (don't think it will happen) we'll see a spike and you said short it. If the fed really stops the taper I think we'll be right back to "buy the dip" mode.
If the fed saves the day on Wednesday, why short? It will be back to the same game.
I'm not so sure that the fed change their plan this Wednesday, but I can tell you this, if the market continues to correct and it corrects more than 12-15%, you can bet the fed will step in and stop tapering. Given that, there is a signficant backstop here with going long.
They're going to have to play a lot harder against denver then they did with SF if they expect to win the superbowl.
Right, but eventually with less U.S. people working, who's going to buy their products...the Chinese making $1/hour?
It's funny because everywhere the dems and republicans are fighting over increasing the minimum wage to $15/hour. Dems say who can maintain a family/household on $8/hour? Republicans say minimum wage jobs are stepping stones and for college kids...that increasing the wage will hurt businesses. Well NO DUH!! They're both right and missing the bigger picture. Why are grown adults with families flocking to minimum wage jobs? McDonalds, Home Depot, etc. Because all the good jobs have been exported overseas. If the dems/repubs don't get their sht together and figure out how to legislate and incentivise real job growth in the U.S. jobs, salaries, and benefits, are going to continue to erode along withh consumer purchasing power.
This is true for those companies looking to hire. However, if overall no one is hiring, the implication is businesses are not growing so bad for the market.
munkey sea, monkey du.
16.5? QID 50ma is at 16.25. The QID hasn't touched it's 50 since Oct. And 17.5 is a huge long shot...very doubtful and not the easiest play here.
And something should only be labeled a bubble if there is no good reason for the run-up in price. That's not the case with the overall stock market
LOL, that is too funny. In 1999 everyone was saying this time is different because we have the internet. The internet was an amazing reason for the market to go up. So by the above standard, in 1999-2000 the market was not a bubble. Haha, yet it burst like the hindenberg.
Some people can justify and rationalize anything.
Here is the one fact about bubbles. You don't know you're in one until it pops.
I don't know if this is a bubble, but the bull run is very long in the tooth and a major trend reversal is more likely than not.
So yes, I continue to btfd. But anyone that does it with wreckless abandon may get slapped pretty hard if they are not careful.
This is something everyone needs to watch at least once a month as a reminder. Sorry I don't know how to imbed the video here, just click the link. Do it.
That's awesome. So no execuse to not enjoy a good craft brew! I stopped running a couple of years ago too. Too much stress on the joints and back which is why I started cycling. Have you tried strava? It's a great motivivation tool for cycling.
You just got burn off those calories. I started doing some serious cycling a couple of years ago. Put in about 2200 miles in 2013. That lets me eat my chili and tacos and have my beer too. Ride to drink!
I'm more of a craft beer guy. Like my IPAs, stouts, and porters. But I'll take a good bourbon and coke, or scotch on the rocks anytime.
At least your consistent. Anyone with a good supply of jim beam is a true prepper!
If we all need guns to survive, nobody wins.
Exactly, so I don't understand all the folks that are wishing for $7000/oz gold because when that day comes, you won't need it because we will all be in "mad max" mode.
If gold reaches $7000 and people lose faith in currency, you won't be looking for gold because it will be useless, you'll be looking for guns and ammunition. BTW, you know there is a big ammo shortage going on, right?
will lead to a huge rally in gold to over $7,000/oz and “at some point you are going to want your gold and there is not going to be any around.”
Ya PWE realy took a beating but looks to have stablized now. I think you picked a spot for a buy. I also have some EXC. Good dividend, also likes like a good entry point to add. Good luck with those.
I've got some CMLP which looks like a good point to take some off the table. Unfortunately I'm locked out of my 401K for about the next week.
I think gold and silver really got into a bubble for a while and were overpriced. They will be in a bull market again someday but it will probably be years before the peaks are ever seen again. JMO.
Yep, but I think the tweet was more of a dig at that pompous ass Peter Schiff that had been pumping gold all year long. Lost a lot of money for those that bought into him. And trust me, he has been very convincing in all of his interviews because much of what he said makes sense in theory. But when you present it like it's fact, there's going to be a lot of gullible people that get hurt.
I heard that there is huge inflation in collectables going on.
Here's the funniest tweet I've seen on metals from the reformed broker:
Downtown Josh Brown ?@ReformedBroker 31 Dec
2013: Gold minus 25% Silver minus 35% Gold Miners minus 52% Junior Miners minus 60% Have a Schiff-tastic New Year.
Ya but the GDP report was over 4%. Whether it's smoke and mirrors is another issue, but for now, yes the market can keep going up.
Is my mike on?! Didn't I say that to you yesterday.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=95135044
I wouldn't be so sure. Even if the fed continues to taper by the meager $10bil a month each and every month, the fed will have injected an additional $320Bil by September. And it is not a given that they will continue to taper at this rate if at all. Once Yellen is at the helm, I would not be surprised if there there are periods of hold on the taper. You seemed to be surprised by yesterday's rally, but by making the announcement, the fed just confirmed that it's a long, long ways off from closing the spigot entirely.
Like I said earlier today, it's simply a relief rally and not surprising at all. BTW, a $10B taper is nothing. Still $75B in bond buying is nothing to sneeze at.
Here's my take. What time is the announcement...like 2:15 Eastern? Most likely there will be no taper. Market will rally and continue upward. If they do announce a taper, there will probably be a relief rally. The market has been in a malaise since November because of the taper jitters.
The republicans have no more interest in ending QE than the democrats. Who do you think stands to gain the most from a never ending rising market, the poor, or the wealthy?
No comparison to the tea party faction of the republicans which is the biggest perpetrator of tying politics to economics. They've pretty much shot themselves in the foot.
That's an interesting point, however, it's not the rich, elite faction of the Repubulicans that are the obstructionists. They just don't have the same kind of control anymore. Those republicans that represent the rich have been ready to vote the budget in and end the shutdown long ago.
I guess Boener was just waiting for that before giving in today.
I'll bet no one saw that coming today. Wonder if Boener saying he'd agree to extending the debt ceiling today was in anyone's charts?
That is definitely in my plans, but we need to get closer to the 17th first.
The shutdown has nothing to do with the debt ceiling.