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First sale posted today.
This thing is like Chinese Water Torture......don't have that much in it, but still I like to protect what I have. Don't think that I have had a good nights rest since I bought this dog. Mistakenly, thought that the big moves in oil downward would bring the snp with it.....got greedy; however, it looks like this is going to pan out (fingers crossed). Get around the 2.50 range and I'm golden for tuition. Still, Im upset with myself for buying this hunk of youknowwhat. Albeit, what doesn't kill you makes one stronger and I'm quickly remembering what it feels like to be punched in the nose and that can be a good thing, lol. Thanks for the advice and I wish you well.
Thank you VC!
What is the PSAR indicator or what does the acronym stand for.....positive strength?? ?
Some are telling me like a 1997 style crash. Spy 160 with a brief stay at Spy 199. Abuelo, as well as, many other smart men are saying this week. Maybe, the Chinese will announce another devaluation. Abuelo is one smart cat, wow.
I don't put much value on the overseas......it will drop going into the open. It seems like the energy from the US market transcends into the overseas futures. Like now the Dow is up a good bit overseas but oil is dropping again, e.g., it will open negative here.
Maybe, we will some positive trading patterns develop that are reminiscent of what was developing prior to the Turkey coup in the morning. There was some buying going on at the 1.13-1.11 range, Friday.
Many leading minds are saying "Get Out Now"!
Yeh, they don't count the everyday things we use and need in the inflation charts.....for their convenience. Had a guy tell me the other day that he ordered a double hamburger with grilled onions and shrooms with fries and a drink and it cost him 16 dollars, from a fast food joint in the mid west. They better figure out something soon because people will just start to riot. They got to bring back manufacturing with the good paying jobs and bennies.
VIX tidbit "Friday's reading for the put/call ratio of the VIX soared to 158%. A high reading means far too many puts are being bought relative to calls. It's a lopsided bet on a lower VIX (and presumably a higher stock market). Stop for a minute and digest this. When the VIX was in the 20s, folks did not load up on puts, but here at 11.7 they are loading up on puts, enough to push that ratio over 100%. I know -- I find that shocking."
"Looking back over the last 15 months I discovered the put/call ratio for the VIX has been over 100% 11 times, two of which were consecutive days. What surprised me was that every single time, the S&P fell by at least 1% sometime in the ensuing 3-5 trading days. This does not mean we had a down day that totaled 1%. Sometimes it was a few days that totaled it up, but I couldn't find one example where it didn't happen."
Could you please elaborate? I, like most, are probably confused to what your even talking about; i.e., conceptual terms can be ambiguous without concrete pathways.
FYI, The Human Condition is inherently "Blindfolded" by self serving ego and the mind made story.
I think he meant 160 on the SPY. If you look at the previous major crashes and their coinciding percentage moves and existing supports.......160 would be about right.
Lower dollar helped oil today. Hopefully it continues for those drilling rigs.
I think when they see DB down to 5 bucks they will start to take notice.
Wow, Cushing gained 1.2 million barrels last week in peak oil/gas season. Cushing is going to be full to the rim within 5 weeks. Tankers are docked and mothballed around the globe with oil, gas, and diesel.
China devalued 4% August of last year and 2% in Jan. Some say they need to do at least another 20%.
Just to give you a idea of how much they have diluted here is this interesting tidbit......."China’s got the printing presses going each and every hour of the twenty-four, all seven days. And its money supply now stands at a Himalayan-high 149 trillion yuan. That’s 73% higher than the United States, if such a thing is possible."
I really think that one of major reasons they didn't raise rates was because of the threat of China devaluing the yuan. China, was probably the minor reason with Europe being the major. Some are saying that the situation in China is so dire that it will make our 08 fallout look like chump-change.
Remember the 08 election? Heck, the market starting tanking like October of that year. First round of bailouts came under the previous presidents watch, so things probably started to unwind in Sept or Oct. That was scary times.....many calling it the end of capitalism.
I would bail there too....just to lock in gains. Yesterdays finish was disappointing to say the least-----figured it would have held a little of those gains with the VIX and VVIX. Hopefully, TVIX closes a little stronger....instead of the 3 o clock daily let down. Good Luck.
"Past History" of their recommended trades. Thank you for your advice I will gladly accept and contemplate any available knowledge that you may posses; however, I'm, fully aware of the movements of VXX.
I have a hard time holding this dog. But, my gut tells me it is about to move big and I am willing to risk a little for a potential big gain to pay for the kids and wife. If this pops up to the 4 or 5 range that would pay for college expense this year.
I really think this is being held back. Looks like a great deal of buying is taking place. Figure they took it down to take out stops to pick up the cheap shares. But what do I know....."for those who talk the most, know the least".
Go to AmericanBulls.com and just type the symbol in and it will give you a recommendation, past history, and description of the charting patterns. Might add...looks like they have a success rate of 55% using charts in this manner.
Sentiment is somewhat self evident in this flea bag, lol. I'm here for the chart and oil tanking too; however, I'm growing weary of it being on my mind, e.g., will sell if support is broke in the next few days. Not like I'm betting the house and kids, but still it is capital that I prefer to keep and I just have a hard time sleeping with one eye shut holding this dog.
Hopefully, this is merely day trade manipulation. Was hoping that it would close positive in alignment with the vix so that we had some wiggle room on a market positive day.
""From the “no rumor is confirmed until it’s officially denied” department: Italy’s finance minister has ruled out any “bail-ins” of the country’s sickly banks.""
I think this is so because it goes against the laws established by the EU.
Sept Oil just touched 42.99!
Thanks Xzibit....maybe we will be on the right side of it. "Even a blind squirrel will find a acorn every now and then" LOL.
Abuelo, you could very well be right and I wish I had some of your insights; however, at this juncture and in this environment would think it would be wise to be on the long side of TVIX.
I currently don't posses the knowledge to be a effective day trader, e.g., I just place a few long positions here and there and research/analyze of trends and conditions.
Wish you well!
A nice surprise from the fed would really shake things up. If they don't raise now...they will commit to next month, in my opinion.
Wow, looks like a good deal of buying going on. Good Luck Abuelo! How high do you think we are going on this move up?
VVIX is up almost 3%...so we should be following soon.
Intra-day will sometimes take it much lower to pick up the stops, e.g. it could go past the established bottom of 39 and then settle at the end of trading just above the stop; thus, trading side ways for a few weeks and possibly drop further.
I been thinking 37-39 for quiet some time. This slow down in Europe and China, as well as, the one we will most likely experience could take it down into the 25 range. Been thinking most of those gold miners will now take a hit from deflationary pressures.
New article "How the Oil Market Threatens Stocks Record Run"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-market-threatens-stocks-record-091500959.html
Draghi said they could possibly provide a backstop to the Italian Banks that would take the debt off of their backs. Heck, Cramer said a couple of weeks ago that they will eventually bailout DB and the Italians at the last moment. It is just digital currency that is easily created.....type it in and push enter. They're committed to actions that will do whatever it takes to prevent failures.
However, at this juncture, those EU officials hands are tied because various banking laws prevent them from bailing them out. But, I think they would change the laws when collapse is near.
I think it could see the 42.75 range in a day or two, that is, Sept 16 Crude.
Oil shorts surge 25%. September is typically refinery's scheduled shutdown season; however, since stock piles of gasoline are sitting at the docks, many refineries are starting their prospective outages early, e.g., adding 1 million barrels of crude a day to the stockpiles. 1.30 at the pump for the election.
Think this oil issue will start to cloud over the market soon.
One would think that our markets would start to take a hit. I wish the VIX was trading a little stronger.....makes me feel like they are going to keep pushing it up. A rate hike would certainly bode well for TVIX but I think that the EU situation will hold it off. Futures are turning negative now, marginally.
They say France is planning a Frexit vote soon....just to be allowed to ship them home. For some reason or another, EU members are not allowed to deport these transients. A couple of thousand of those religious zealots are going to cost millions their homes.
We have had our share of our own crazies though, i.e., postal office workers bombs.....remember the phrase "going postal" in the 80/90's, anti-abortion/abortion craze blowing up McDonalds in the 80's, Tim Mcvey blowing up that bldg. in OK, Ted Kysankski, whole fleet of school shootings, heck gang violence in Chicago killed 36 in one weekend.
True story....I was sitting at the break table one day having lunch with a younger co-worker and he just read a story about a couple of journalists getting killed on the streets somewhere in the Middle East. He was irate and went on and on about how crazy it is to live in a place where a journalist couldn't safely walk down the street. As irony would have....just happened to finish reading a large article on how to gain safe passage on some of the streets in Compton, thus one needing a Compton Pass not to get killed.
The people in the US are reading articles on those Journalists getting killed by Islamic fundamentalists; conversely, those in the Middle East are reading articles on the 36 killed by gang violence in Chicago.
Thanks Rufus. Evidently, your just a guy that sees the potential...like me. Timing is crucial.....and it looks like the printing presses are starting to turn out some pretty negative stuff, e.g., from the eloquent lips of Fred Sanford "this could be the big one". I was hoping that you worked on The Street and that you are was privy to directional insights. Good Luck, regardless.
I hope your one of the guys on the inside Rufus12!