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Every piece of news about new development is a gift. Spoiled children expect new gift ever day, every week.
To 4 months old timers, congratulation, you have your money doubled. To new comers, congratulation, you found a rocket. The only thing you need to know is that the destination is not the Moon, it's Mar.
I totally agreed with you Dr. Jerry. I have 2 family members with MSTP training and one of my friends is a PI. They all concurred with your opinions.
I hardly trust business people. But I do believed extraordinary people could do extraordinary things. I believed Leo and Menon are extraordinary bunch. They would never sell CTIX before they exhaust exploring Kevetren potential. I believed they are working on 'HIGH CALLING'. This is a cult stock.
Here is a copy/paist from Yahoo board,
<<<mearley51 • 2 hours 35 minutes ago
4 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 1
Reply
WhyI bought CTIX
I live in Syracuse NY, been a season Tix holder for SU Basketball for 30 years. I am very familiar with Coach Jim Boeheim, he is the same coach who battleded prostate cancer, lost two parents to cancer and is one of the largest fundraisers with Coachs Vs Cancer in the nation. He does not lend his name very easily to anything, we jokingly say he still has his first communion money still sealed in an envelope. Coach Boeheim lent his name to CTIX, he is a business advisor for CTIX, I bought CTIX at .55, and .73, right now I could get out with a huge profit, I do believe this is a super winner. I believed in Coach Boeheims judgement and also CTIX Less
I have no doubt that Dr. Menon would do his best to design the protocol in a way best fitting CTIX interests, based on his past experiences in developing 2 drugs of billions dollars. But to get a FDA approval for a trial protocol in a 2 weeks window is going to be difficult around the holiday time.
I suspected there are some exchanges going back and forth between CTIX and FDA daily, on business days.
So if there is news out Monday morning, it most likely is about test results for K and B.
If there is news out about a partnership, I'll be very upset. A partnership deal this time around is most likely an underbid deal.
We all need to be patient. Let Leo run CTIX, without burdens of delivering news weekly.
OTC stocks cannot be naked shorted. Shorting any stock can happen only when the stock price is in ascending, meaning the executable stock price shorted must be higher than the stock price of the previous trade.
For that reason, if a trader plans to short a stock let's say in $4.20~$4.50 range, he has to first knock the price down 15~20% lower than the low band (in this case it is $4.2), depending on the share amount he plan to short, the average daily trading volume, and the perceived available volume when scare takes control.
Bottom line, no naked short here. If there is no seller, there is going to be no profitable short trade here. The best the market maker could help the short trader is using 100 shares bid/ask a time to explore the lowest price possible. When a MM does this 100 shares bid/ask, it could be naked, as long as he could allocate all the shares within 3 days. As a matter of face, a MM does this is not necessarily helping short sellers. All he wants is the trading volume.
After uplisting, CTIX would be subjecting naked short. All naked short sellers are subjecting the same rule to allocate the share amount within 3 days.
Those are what I understood about shorting stocks. Correct me if I am wrong. BTW, there are many published statistics showing that about 75% short sellers are losing money for last 30 years. Short seller like CLAY is making money by selling their service, not by some of his trades. Just like Cramer.
short covering never happened with large block tradings.
I am 80% certain that short covering is happening now. If you have Level 2, you could see how this MM is executing short coverings for his clients. It's very interesting but it is just as usual. The reason MM could do this type of short covering is most likely, based on my experience, he saw lots of stop loss orders. Mostly those stop loss orders are set by those who bought in around 2.5 if I have to guess.
Lack of confidence is what I concluded. As for me, I am adding here.
Have you ever done shorting any single one of stocks?
Dr. Jerry, what is the 'other company'?
Dr. J, I remembered you once said you were an early investor in CELG in 90's. What would you say about CTIX now?
More and more I see the resemblance.
1)CEOs have been loyal only to traded shares;
1a)CEOs won't sell owned shares before accomplishing milestones
set based on science which are promised to share holders;
1b)they are not shy to clue to share holders about progresses
prior to public announcements. Some people with limited
investment experr ience called it unprofessional. I called it
a showing of loyalty. CELG CEOs in 90's did exactly the same.
2)Concentrating on pipeline development only. When weighting on
whether to spend money to attract new institutional investors
or keep all available resources for pipeline developments, while
resources are limited, they always prioritized the latter.
3)Constantly looking for new opportunities, even made bold
acquisitions in new fields.
Of cause those are just behavioral resemblance. To confirm CTIX is going to be as good as CELG, to me, CTIX needs to be above $7 at least. Therefore, I decided once it reaches that level, I am going to fully load it up. For all of those reasons, I don't even read message boards regularly.
I told my children that I missed out a life changing investment, in CELG, and I am not going to miss out another one, with CTIX.
What do you think?
No, you were wrong BigK. It cannot be '0 or yacht'. It'll be 'one cottage or a few more'.
Dr. Jerry’s contemplation are in right direction. The day the shelf registration was announced, I posted the similar prediction. Now it’s a known fact. Let’s see what’s follow up.
Witnessing/participation while CTIX is evolving into a mega pharma in fastest steps, and producing values for shareholders, I am very excited indeed.
coming headline news; CTIX bought R&D and manufacturing facilities in India, using its shelf registered common stocks valued at $30 millions based on its Friday closing price of $3/share (10 million shares)..........
My first predictino was confirmed by Leo's email replay to a share holder, that he had been in India for last 2 two weeks.
The above headline is my new prediction.
Did he spend time in India for food? For food adn drugs?
For hardware! For new investment capitals!
Don't miss out the chance to buy low!
Noretreat, since someones wanted to kick me, I had to tell you taht this time I did better than you.
I added 50K at 2.85, 2.87 and 2.88, although my plan called for anther 50k shares.
English 101, since...so...Dr. Menon's sons needed money badly from Dad's CTIX holding.
But (since) Dr. Menon hasn't sold a single share of his holding up to $3.51, (so) why would you?
Teacher of Biotech aka TOB
COO is talking. It's all good!
This is good! 'We're under no pressure to ever exercise the registration, but it is a prudent financial move to have additional cash available to us should a unique opportunity arise'
Questions for BigKahuna and Noretreat, why Leo couldn't wait to file S3 until he got bottom line data, which he told us was due in 'weeks'-1 week pasted?
Here is my analysis,
good-he had cut deals with institutions yet to be named to raise certain amount of capital. The arrangement could be that those institutions have to buy from open market. Those kind of things happened to other companies. To move things fast, he filed S3 just to be ready. In this case, we should expect announcements in next few trading days?
bad-he just wanted to test faithfulness of those 1700 individual investors, to see how much you could raise from retailer investors to prepare his plane to go alone until phase III B is done. In this case I believed we could say that so far top line data for B has not attracted much interests, or the level of interest is not what he expected?
ugly-he saw the bottom line data could be controversial. He wanted to raise money anyway to propel his plans. So he is going to dump stocks to get money before the bottom line data is revealed.
What do you guys think?
So using BK's 15% market penetration rate across the board, we reached $8.4 billions annual sale potential.
Conventional market valuation number is 5 time annual sale, therefore we have a market valuation of 8.4X5=$42 billions.
By industry average, for a breakthrough technology in drug/life science, the royalty for "ready for launch" product is 30% (adjusted by profit margin).
In other words, we could expect 0.3X42=$12.6 billions royalty income for CTIX.
In my experience, this $12.6 won't all reflect in stock price. CTIX is a company in developing. It has to yield some interests to others, internally and externally. I believe 70% of stock price realization is more realistic, based on my experience. That is to say that we could expect 0.7x12.6=$8.82 billions market cap for B alone, within next 3 years according to Leo' workaholic tempo.
But, I actually believe BK's 15% market penetration rate is way too low. I expected a 30% market penetration rate a minimum. We could easily see a $15 billion market cap for Brilacidin alone. That'll give us $136 apiece for the stock price.
Called out BigKahuna's big miscalculation. As a professor in engineering especially sensitive to numbers, I have to correct you even if it might give you a few more nose bleeding, crazily happy for my CTIX holding and not so happy for my concern for your health, though
For ABSSSI, the calculation should go like this;
18 million patients a year for ABSSSI, 15% initial market penetration = 2.7 million treatments per year @ $2500 per course (current median for MSRA treatments) = $6.75 billion/year with year over year increases.
The rest calculations including "5 times" stock market valuation are correct. So the final valuation number for Brilacidin should be, 6.75+0.35+1.3=$8.4 billions.
<<
18 million patients a year for ABSSSI, 15% initial market penetration = 2.7 million treatments per year @ $2500 per course (current median for MSRA treatments) = $675 million/year with year over year increases.
B-OM has no effective treatment for 400K cases per year so 25% market penetration = 100K cases @ $3,500 per treatment = $350 million and increasing year over year.
B-Diabetic foot has 3.5 million cases a year so 15% market penetration is 520K per year @ 2500 per treatment = 1.3 billion with year over year increases.
Brilacidin for 3 indications all entering Phase 2/3 or 3 trials in the next 6 months has an initial market potential of $2.325 billion in annual sales. So, expected cap would be 5 times that. Oh, did I mention these are minimums?
Thanks, I just packed my nose with cotton to stop another nose bleed. And, those numbers weren't even crazy high yet.
>>
Forget about all the other stocks you owned! CTIX is the only one you want to pay attention for next couple of years! Be careful not to flip yourself off this bull wagon by your ugly, dirty, shaking fingers!
Leo said to expect top line data at the end of this month. I expected it in next 15 trading days.
BioHedge, you are one of the best stock market investors. Your $30/share withing 2 years is definitely not a far reaching guesstimation. In my experience, I have seen a quite few stocks which experienced similar monster ramp-ups. Some of them (25%?) have never looked back, others either dropped down later or even collapsed though. Comparing to those successful ramp-ups, I see CTIX is the most promising company fundamental wise.
Also, all of those companies which saw their own stocks had monster ramp-ups are, biotech companies, based on my observation.
Dear fence sitters, we are willing to buy at $4.5 apiece once the news come out, even if the efficacy is as good as expected only for 1 of the 3 arms. Because we know actually, the resistance free antibiotics is the future king, who is badly needed last decade.
PS, I won’t flip this stock not until it’s reached $20 as long as there is the B+P, although I have a record of trading stocks 400 times annually.
PPS, lots of people I know of would never sell out their total holding as long as the K is there, for personal feeling.
Do google search for ‘cult stock’, you probably can see some performance like CTIX. And you should understand the power of “cult stock”.
Are you ready?
Fellow longs, hold tight of your CTIX stocks. Your holding is your certification of rights to brag, to your dears, to your next real estate agents, to your next generations.
Checking the stock trading patterns, I have my personal confidence that some very good news is in cooking, and the smell is leaking out to a small circle.
useful trading info
dates avg close SP total traded volume
April 15~Aug 17 $1.71 11millions
Aug 19~Sep 25 $2.13 13millions
Sep 26~Oct 20 $2.92 10millions
In other words, they are so confident about the B test results after they peeked into the raw data, that they both felt the urgency to explore next steps for B, no longer in lab, but for hardware. What kind of hardware? Let's see.
I for one actually hope they won't evolve CTIX into a drug manufacturer.
Licence fees and royalties are what I like most.
Expecting new deals of funding or joint venture from India after the test data for B becomes available.
What else could drag their feet into the same country at the same time, for both Leo and Dr. Menon, when the data crunching is in the high gear???
There is no reason for Dr Menon and Leo both showed faces in India at the same time, other than...looking for business opportunity for B! Drug manufacturing? Forming corporation?
Dr Jerry, your thought about the following quot, please?
I actually believed that even if B is 85% effective in one of tests,B would be a highly demanded drug with a billion dollar revenue,simply because of its treat of resistant free.
I called this BB!
Quot;
According to CDC:
"Each year in the United States, at least 2 million people become infected with bacteria that are resistant to antibiotics and at least 23,000 people die each year as a direct result of these infections. Many more people die from other conditions that were complicated by an antibiotic-resistant infection."
'Added benefit'? ......That must be the understatement of the day!
Aspire has not sold 1 share since that up swing started, to my knowledge.
People shouldn't under-estimated those fund managers. I know 2 things for sure, 1)They know the developments much more than most of us, at least to me; 2)They have much more money to endure business up/down, than every one of us, or, at least to me.
BK you said it best,'due to their shallow DD and additional short interest will further fuel each series of runs that they short into.'
Too many years in stock market, too many call/put buy/sell, I am pretty confident that there would only be two kinds of people who would short CTIX, and short it for sure in coming years;
1)those who trade stocks mostly based on pure TA, strictly. Even if CTIX is only 70% as good as we believed in, we shall see its sp enduring many parabolic movements in coming years. I personally knew some persons(math/engineering professors, you guessed it!) lost big time trading in biotech field, due to their professional love and belief for mathematical perfection;
2)those who trade stocks mostly based on mixing of TA/FA/manipulation, opportunistically. Those people could be a great help for long term stock holders when they mis-judge the company developments, if new revenues for the company continously pop up, due to PIPE LINE EXPANSION.People like Cramer could be in that rank.
I firmly believed in CTIX. That's why I welcome Cramer and his like.
I welcome Cramer and I loved shorties.
My qualification? I was the initial 100 members of his paid subscribtion service 'the real money' for an anual fee of $270, more than a decade ago for 3 years.
My confidence? We as paid members knew up to today, his shorting recomendations are losing money, big time for 30% of his recomendations.
My point? I was paticipating a few of his shorting, lost money, helped shorted stock price maintained at high levels or pushed them high, 60% of time.
My recomendations:
1)if you are afraid of being shorted, you should not buy CTIX;
2)if you don't have extra money to play with shorties, you should not pay any attention to them.
Conslution, with CTIX pipe line, Cramer would never dare to short CTIX.
noretreat, thanks for the reply. I actually got that order filled, just a misreading.
you have touched my itching point of 60, again.
noretreat, if you don't mind, may I ask how many shares you got this morning and at what price?
trading report this morning:
Everyday morning for the past two weeks, after I had checked the market and all stocks I hold, especially CTIX, I'll set up an order to buy CTIX at 10% lower than past week's high, with no condition attached.
This morning I checked my order and the trading closely. I saw when the ps dropped down to 2.7 and stayed in 2.7~2.74 for more than 15 minutes, my order for 30k shares at 2.75 got nothing. Then when it dropped down from 2.74 to 2.72 again, I got 300 shares. So far I got 300 shares at 2.75 and the trading range moved up a little bit to 2.78 up.
My conclusion is that MMs are accumulating at 2.7~2.75 range. They confiscated all shares at that range and won't allow me to have my order filled. I understand that is legal, for MMs.
I would report back after market close, if I have time.
Dr. Jerry, nice to see you. Your input from medical fields are always appreciated.
BTW, your calls for gap down level are expecially appreciated
To all of those gapists, your life would most likely be full of sorry because you waisted your time by watching/flipping this wakening lion king stock of your life time.
Believe me, keep your money, go to some other stock forums and fogget about this stock, your life would be much better.
I for one can happyly tell you guys how I 'flip/gap' this stock, and I believed many here normally do the same.
I bought 100k shares averaging $1.64 as my core holding, planned to start to 'flip' part of that once it reaches $60 a piece.
When it first time rushed over $2 and stalled, when Dr. Jerry talked about buying more if it gapping down to 1.40 range, I sneakily laugh to myself, sold out other stocks, started buying more at 1.7 level.
When it first time rushed over $3 and stalled, when Dr. Jerry talked about buying more if it gapping down to 2.5 range, I sneakily laugh to myself, sold out other stocks, started buying more at 2.75.
Now, if you are paying attention to the ps flucuations for the past months, you know what I am talking about.
In short, I am here to give you a lecture to teach you why your TA would never work on the stock like ctix. Because of its huge upside potential, there are many who are willing/capable to buy in large lump sum, at way up over your 'gap down' level, making the entry path much narrow for those who don't have any shares and fear to left behind. AND MAKING YOUR TA TOTALLY USELESS.
Very sneaky trade pattern this morning.
I had a limit order to buy 20k with no condition for $2.75 at 9:40 EST. I saw some shares sold at 2.73, but I got nothing.