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Haha, I can't believe the rest of my 1.71 buy order went through on Friday. How strange.
Thanks for the insight. Will be great if P knocks it out of the park. Question is the role of the immune system in psoriasis and its recurrence - something about intradermal t-cells are implicated by the UV treatment according to the studies on Xtrac. Likely not a mechanism reflected well in the immune compromised mouse models - which lends ourselves to have our hands on a treatment rather than a cure. But we will see.
The statement "everybody knows that Reo works" is pretty bold.
The issue with mice studies for something like Reo is that it avoids the obvious issue of the human immune system and how it tends to get in the way of a virus like this. If you have immune compromised mice, no immune system to get in the way of efficacy
The problem is completely different in a human.
The only thing that will prove it works is that Ph3 blinded study. That should come soonish. But not something I would want to risk money on the unblinding of. That can get very nasty very quick.
Thanks for the insight. UV treatments. Vaccines for bacteria. A company targeting the fatty acids of bacteria as a novel MoA without the side effects associated with also killing beneficial strains of bacteria in the body and low likelihood of resistance development (see our competition at the partnership conference).
Haha, its times like this that you have to appreciate and be thankful that P and B are side shows.
FYI now the ads that pop up on the board for me are all for the Xtrac treatment. I think I said Psoriaisis too many times in combination. Damn smart ads.
Have you all heard about xtrac? A laser Psoraisis treatment, FDA approved, dermatologist recommended and now running tv ads in NY. Apparently this has been around since 2000, but they are claiming 95% clearance of psoriasis.
So apparently this isn't new - 2M treatments performed. Just first I have seen an advertisement for it.
People aren't joking about Psoraisis treatment market getting crazy.
Good thing we aren't just a Psoriasis drug development company.
"For decades, dermatologists have used ultra-violet light therapy for the effective and safe treatment of many skin disorders, including psoriasis. The medical engineers and research teams at PhotoMedex in coordination with Rox Anderson, M.D. at Harvard Medical School and Wellman Center of PhotoMedicine in Boston, created the XTRAC to produce a monochromatic wavelength (308nm) of ultraviolet light known to positively impact the psoriasis action spectrum."
Hahaha if only I could.
Let me help again. Every cohort has increased by 50% since Cohort 2. A 50% increase (which is still expected if nothing has changed) would take us to 112 which is..... ABOVE 100!!!! HENCE WITHOUT ANY NEW INFORMATION WE CAN ANTICIPATE A DOSE ABOVE 100
As for a restaging - had this fight with Seal already. If you are using the metric of less than 20% increase in cancer size as remission it is easy for that not to happen in a slow growing tumor. Hence you can have restaging (apparent lack of 20% tumor size increase) followed by an increase in tumor size of 20% and disease progression - neither of which are attributable to the drug working or not working.
Kevertrin is a miracle drug... but it has not shown itself to be so yet clinically.
Gov... I am as confused as ever by your post. Isn't 100 the minimum they could have started Cohort 6 under our protocol. Namely 33% above 75. There is no way it could be a dosage below 100 according to the protocol unless they had hit MTD.
I continue to doubt they are holding anything back. We just aren't there yet in terms of dosage. We are soo very very close though. Cohort 7 is the money shot for all of that stuff.
You were right... what else can I say. I eat crow here. On my next trade I will look to your sage advice. That will not be for a long while, but when the time comes :)
Ok I am stimulated. Everyone is getting so excited. So lets look at the numbers they are trying to beat. In the 2002 study with the arm that treated with paclitaxel and carboplatin the treatment showed 34% survival. So that is our control. Unfortunately it had a much larger number of patients, but lets translate that into our study numbers
34% =12 patients 1 year survival with just chemo
53% = 19 patients 1 year survival with chemo and Reo
Difference of 7 people living living 3-4 months longer than the median survival on just the chemo- which was 8-9 months.
So tell me honestly. Is this data everyone is ready to hang their hats on? Just seems like a far reach from anything conclusive. Just a word of caution. I have nothing invested in ONCY and everything tied up in another cancer stock which I will not mention here. I just would not feel comfortable with a big play based on this. However enjoy the ride everyone. But you will need a lot more data before this thing really climbs methinks.
Not trying to get anyone down, just be cautious. Lots of questions still need to be answered here. Its one of the big troubles with combo drugs. How in a small study can you be sure you are helping or just experiencing a statistical bounce in your favor that would have occurred without your treatment.
CLSN anyone....
Fear of dilution is always worse than dilution itself. Bc buyers are more hesitant while it is overhanging. The fear will have a hard time subsiding until either the partnership materializes or a financing materializes. A plan to partner does not get you past the issue. But what do I care. Sitting pretty till March at least. Hopefully I get to pump my bonus in here at these prices. Unlikely, but I hope.
"Needed" is a bold exaggeration. More like "useful" to fund our activities. Also "useful" because of long term revenue potential as well. But by no means was this an essential part of the K strategy.
Not arguing. Just emphasizing its all gravy. The meat remains K. Always was. Always will be (unless that autism drug is for real). Nothing wrong with gravy. Just saying worrying about competition when it comes to your gravy is kind of pointless.
As always your level head is always welcome.
Of course. Safety blanket and all that. Honestly I'm fine without it. K works and is safe. We are just waiting for the study to catch up. But if its just for safety then even if the two drugs combined P and B are only worth 200M nobody should care. That is still an 800M dollar market cap company and you still have the rest of the preclinical pipeline. Competition be damned. We are a cutting edge cancer company. The rest is just gravy.
Am I missing something or isn't everything just gravy compared to K. Almost a joke by comparison. None of it will matter once K is proven. P and B are just to keep things interesting and add another Billion to the market cap. Maybe they are worth 200M and maybe they are each worth 1B. Still small fries if K is proven. We will leave CLDX in the dust.
My guess is MGH stands for Massachessts General Hospital. Of course how that makes sense in a reference to DF not so sure. How does she have the inside track on buzz?
Definitely agree. The case for B is compelling and in the new stronger hands of CTIX with more willingness to agree to partnership terms that split the pie in a way that gives more value to the partner than our predecessor was willing to do, there may be no issue at all finding a partner. For B's former owner B was where all the value was (especially after D flopped). For our guys its not that big a deal in the big picture so I think we will end up being able to find some common ground on a deal where everyone wins.
After much reflection, I have to agree with the sages here that they decided to cancel PoC because P is more valuable in terms of overall market opportunity than B and they could pursue a partnership for B instead of P and thereby give up less opportunity since the total market for antibiotics is something like 1/5 of the total market for psoraisis. As a result, no need do a study designed to tell partners how good P is - just move it along ourselves. Hence the change of plans and no PoC.
Then you have the reinforcing thought that moving the catalyst to later was safer for the company just in case. But I tend to think this was just another reason rather than the primary reason.
Well I got $10K at 1.71. Lets see if we can find a seller for 2500 more shares :)
-Its cool when you hit a literal 100,000 share count the math for how much your stock is worth becomes really really easy. Lol
Looking to buy another $15k at 1.71. Will I get it? Haha. I really hope so.
I don't follow your logic. Aspire buys at some discount to market right? Only rule I thought was Company determines timing and total amount of shares purchased is equal to $10M. So Company has to sell less 6 dollar shares to get to $10M. That means less dilution. I don't think we are better off selling at 1.80. But the Company needs the money when they need it and if that is now 1.80 is it. But for sure 6.00 with fewer shares issued to Aspire overall is best. That is why the delay draw is such an awesome concept bc chances are if you can delay the sale the price of the shares will go up over time and you won't have to sell as many to meet your financing needs as you would have had to in one big deal at a lower share price when the deal was inked.
They have a few months to clear things with the FDA which takes us to the November presentation where it seems they will push for a partnership. If that doesn't materialize and they don't get an attractive financing deal it becomes likely they will probably mothball B until circumstances permit. I guess it's a luxury of having three clinical stage drugs. A delay on B will not even register on the Company's prospects given that all attention will just remain on K and P (once the trial gets rolling).
So dilution of any significance looks increasingly unlikely. Partnership or hold on B. Big Kahuna is looking right on the plan.
$2.5M is the Ph2 expanded price for P. PoC was always estimated to be in the hundreds of thousands.
Key from 10K
P trial to cost 2.5M
B trial not budgeted yet
So without B trial they need "financing of approximately $5.0 million (as per current management's budgets)" plus whatever B trial costs will be so we are looking at about another $10M in financing (unless they partner it off in November).
Doesn't seem bad to me...
Hahaha, if it dips buy more. Its true that short term catalysts seem sparce, but its in such unassuming times that run-ups begin. Just remember that we are a few months away from a potential partnership on B (BigK sounds like you were right about the partnership route if they are presenting at that partnering conference in November (thanks BooDog) which could also serve as a catalyst) and Cohort 6 completion will occur around the same time (hopefully)
Also the big picture is that for longs the time horizon is not this week, this month or even January 1st. It's the big news that will inevitably come our way and has a deadline of end of March.
Those who are ok risking missing the boat are welcome do do so. Just don't be surprised when you wake up one morning to find you have missed the boat.
The smart ones take weakness like this as opportunity to load on up and I for one am not selling a share until I see a rapid move of some multiple of 2 dollars.
If we get to 150 or more without MTD we will be both a lone and combo therapy depending on the efficacy against different types of tumors. There are some it works better on than others. Those types of tumors where growth is just slowed rather than reversed are probably the most likely candidates for combo therapy. There is a long list of cancers and K's effect listed on the Company's website if you are curious. Then again K may be effective alone on even more cancers if you get to 200 and start administering multiple times a week. Our drug is very concentration dependent so how high we go on MTD is key. I say we can go as high as 350 but time will tell.
In terms of currently contemplated studies I think some are combo and some like the eye cancer study are intended to be sole administration. If we get a high MTD I think we will see a significant expansion of K as sole therapy studies.
Not halted according to this. Sometimes MM keep the bid ask from meeting. Probably just no bids at the lowest ask of 1.90
http://www.otcbb.com/marketwatch/
Oh lost soul of little faith. I have been up all night working so our perspectives on life are probably just about equally depressed right now. For the acquisition you have to understand that the Company was in liquidation. It had no Investment Banker shopping around its assets to the market. Add to that the fact that interested purchasers who were limited to begin with (how many biotechs are actually in this space) were distracted with their own acquisitions or sales in some cases. So you have no money to advertise you are on sale and likely the only publicity you get is a small ad in a trade publication specifying the date and time of said auction. If you aren't involved in the bankruptcy from the beginning (like our stalking horse CTIX) you may not have the auction on your radar in time to do enough DD to make an appropriate bid. You don't even have enough time to confirm whether or not you are interested. It is easy for an auction in bankruptcy to fall very much under the radar bc likely the only announcement is in some trade publication. Often there is only 1 entity that ends up bidding for the assets of a failed company. Even for a big company like blockbuster there were only 3 interested bidders.
All of these are very real reasons why CTIX was able to steal. Add to that big pharma not developing any antibiotic pipeline and therefore 0 initial interest in the bankruptcy auction. Do you really expect some small biotech to keep an eye out for an opportunity like this? Of course they missed it. We got lucky our guys were savvy enough to spot this. It's a huge victory. Lucky, lucky lucky is the only way to describe us. Today it is the only positive thing I can think about before I go to sleep.
How often are any of you right? Really, have you tracked your accuracy? Lets play the game here again. I will take the counterpoint :)
The fun stuff happens when we you anticipate getting 30-50 percent of the market for 50% of cancers. I like to focus on that number whatever it might be. Most of that potential will get baked in within the next 2 years once we can show the efficacy seen in the animal models tansfers well to humans.
Then the speculators will take hold I think and we ride to the moon. You know the people who invested $10,000 with Warren Buffet when he got started would be worth about $500M today.
Those are the type of numbers I am talking about :)
CTIX might just be the only stock you ever need to own.
Only headwind is time to completion of the K trial. It has been moving at a slow clip since they have only been increasing levels by 50 percent. But we are almost there and we are getting to the point in the next 3-4 months where we may have real signs of efficacy though the real fireworks probably start February. Stock has shown a tendency to make a steady climb with cohort progression so if you wait until January to buy in I would be willing to bet you will be paying about at least 30 percent more
To be fair it looks like the market for Psoriasis treatments is 5B and fractured among about 4 competitors. Plenty of room for a decent product to grow and if its a pill that doesn't need injections and possibly a cure vs a maintenance treatment well, you do the math :) An interesting article about the current market.
http://www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/novartis_secukinumab_tops_enbrel_in_psoriasis_study_487824
Which quote made the partnership so clear? Partnerships only happen if a good deal comes along. A good deal does not always come along. Most biotechs would rather do a financing if the partner would take too much of the value. Then again you could be right and its a partnership.
Either way we have the money we need. Either way we gave up something to get something. Personally unless its a necessary partnership (ie commercialization which we could not achieve on our own) I would rather we just take the ball into the endzone financed with equity as needed. Dilution in the midst of real progress isn't a big deal and often preferable to selling the cows for some quick cash.
Hope you are right. Guess we will find out what CTIX thinks if we are lucky in the 10-K budget
To be honest I would rather just get another aspire deal done now and then do a real capital raise in 2015 when we are already up 500 percent. Then raising the funds for a Ph3 will be childs play and no big hit to our stock price. Who cares at that point anyway.
Point is dilution will be small now and will remain small until we have a proven drug or 3 so who cares... Kerx raised 90 million at $8.40pps after they proved K worked as well as they could have hoped and the stock kept going up and hit 10. It was hilarious to watch the shorts scream.
Partners can go screw... we got this :)
Idk about all that. There was a reason 4-7 million was the estimate our predecessor Company came up with for the 2b trial. Unless Dr Mennon figured out a way to do the trial with fewer patients I think we are stuck with those costs. I do wonder however how much the P trials will cost though. Perhaps we won't need as many people for that - 50 control and 50 treatment? But you would think they might also want to do some dose optimization so I am defaulting to 8-14 million for the two trials. Maybe a bulk discount if they do everything through the same CRO :)
Guys relax - 10 million is hardly even a pinch.
I believe as we move ever closer to an effective dose, which I am willing to say is around 150 given we can administer frequently, we will get a steady run up. Cohort progression = steady price appreciation. It will accelerate as we come into the effective range and risk of MTD issues disappear. A lot of risk that has been hanging around since Cohort 1 will suddenly disappear if we successfully complete 7. I view that as a catalyst itself - and should be emphasized as such when it rolls around.
Before that... well lets just say sometimes you have to take a longer view. CLDX was a slow grower for a while too. Slow and steady until she is not.
Lol why the nervous chatter? Hahaha. Did I miss something? Lots of focus on the short term moves. Weren't we just at 1.88 last week? Still waiting for bioman's first buy signal of 1.85 to roll past so i can start eating crow. I still say wishful thinking by some who hope to buy lower. Fundamentals say up. This lottery ticket is safer than ever before.
In other overlooked good news Nutlins were posted here to have reached a therapeutic dose in leukemia patients without toxicity getting in the way confirming p53 activation as an effective avenue in the fight against cancer. Those still worried about safety should heed well that glimpse into our future. Get in while you can and wait for the fireworks. They are going to be big :)
But the patent is limited to Psoraisis and related skin related issues. Would there be any IP protection for P for other indications? My working assumption was that they limited to these indications for a reason.
Nutlins strike again. Haha. Sounds like good stuff. Ours will work as good or better :) Tell me that isn't worth something huge.
How big a loss are we talking? I thought the loan was for something like 6 million and we paid between cash and stock about 5 million. Doesn't seem like a huge loss if they liquidate. Secured Lenders don't like money at risk and nothing is riskier than equities. Unlikely they would hold anything. Liquidation is virtually certain. Unless I am missing something?