Closely Watching Level 2 (even on my phone)...
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Looks like Niv & company will get their bonuses cut if less than 90% of the LUK loan is repaid by EOY...that's an incentive for these guys to work things out and the fact that a few had their base salary increased this month also is a good sign that the company feels stable and has strong beliefs of profitability...per the 8k:
"None of the 2015 Leucadia Loan Portion or the 2015 EBITDA Portion will be earned if less than 90% of the Leucadia Target or 2015 EBITDA Target, respectively, is achieved, and 100% of the 2015 Leucadia Loan Portion or the 2015 EBITDA Portion will be earned if 100% or more of the Leucadia Target or 2015 EBITDA Target, respectively, is achieved. If between 90% and 100% of the respective target is achieved, the 2015 Leucadia Loan Portion and the 2015 EBITDA Portion will be subject to proration."
Absolutely...I'm 100% confident that FXCM will pay at least $60 million within the next 30 days. LUK sent out a PR a week or so ago claiming they expect to receive MORE THAN 25% of the loan from FXCM...that's $75mm paid by april 16th based off my math.
This statement came from the creditor, not the debtor so it holds much more weight IMHO. I loaded more today and will continue loading any dips under $2.35 this week.
$FXCM$
.. $60 million
Basically if FXCM hasn't paid the $10mm deferred finance charge and the aggregate balance of the principal loan is $250mm or more, FXCM will be hit with a $30mm penalty.
So basically FXCM must pay at least $60mm to LUK by April 16th.
I'm sure lots of institutions loaded up today...the gap up on Friday didn't give many of them a chance to load cheapies, but today (and probably for the next few days) they will be loading for the inevitable pop by EOM or early April once sell of non-core asset news drops
I agree. Then we can see $3+ by EOW
This really puts things in perspective:
"BUSINESS
Banks fined $4.3B in foreign exchange probe
Jane Onyanga-Omara and Kevin McCoy, USA TODAY
Nov 12, 2014
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CARL COURT, AFP/Getty Images
U.S. banking giant JP Morgan's offices in Canary Wharf are pictured in London, on May 11, 2012.
Six big banks agreed Wednesday to pay $4.3 billion to settle civil allegations from regulators in the U.S., Great Britain and Switzerland that some of their traders attempted to manipulate the world's $5.3-trillion-a-day foreign exchange currency-trading market to boost trading profits.
Traders from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), HSBC (HSBC), Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), UBS (UBS) and Bank of America (BAC) shared information about the foreign exchange trading activities of their firms' clients and colluded on strategies aimed at manipulating benchmark exchange rates for pairs of leading world currencies such as the British pound and U.S. dollar and the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen, regulators said.
The traders formed tight-knit groups to share information about client activity and used code names to identify clients, regulators said. The traders groups were nicknamed "the players," "the 3 musketeers," "1 team, 1 dream," "a co-operative" and "the A-team."
Excerpts of chat room exchanges released by investigators show the traders spoke in shorthand as they colluded to push foreign exchange rates up or down at the daily 4 p.m. London time "fix," one of the most widely referenced benchmarks for major world currencies.
Sounding more like a mobster rather than a bank employee in one exchange, a Citibank trader issued what regulators termed a "presumably facetious" warning to a trader who sought to join one of the groups: "Mess this up and sleep with one eye open at night."
"If the manipulation effects had succeeded, there very well could have been distortion effects on relative prices for imports and exports related to the various currencies," said Robert Hockett, a Cornell Law School professor who specializes in monetary and financial law.
USA TODAY
Forex traders plotted strategy in secret chats
The fines were announced by two U.S. regulators — the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency — Britain's Financial Conduct Authority, and Swiss financial regulator FINMA.
JPMorgan and Citi were hit with the heaviest penalties — more than $1 billion each in all. UBS' fines total $800 million, while RBS will pay $634 million and HSBC will pay $618 million. Bank of America, which was only fined by the OCC on Wednesday, was penalized $250 million."
See!? We Can't trust nothing those shady Citigroup analysts say about FXCM...we all knew they were shorts from the start...and mama said "SHORT ARE THE DEVIL!"
Interesting indeed....next week promises to be even more interesting ; )
$FXCM$
$3 is definitely coming next week...lots of profit takers and flippers today...especially since it was FRIDAY.
Next week we break $3. The closer we get to April 16th, the higher the pps climbs with belief that $60 million of loan will be paid as CEO sounded very confident in this happening "thru multiple streams"
Dip and rip after lunch anyone?
Agreed
I disagree in part to that comment. I will trade some shares as this will inevitably run next week and certainly once news is announced around late April regarding paying the $60 million off the loan to avoid the high fees.
Then I'll keep a core bunch of shares for some long term capital gains benefits...FXCM is the largest FX broker in the world and is NOT going anywhere buddy.
GLTY
All my newsletter buddies are sending FXCM alerts this morning...tons of new investors on the way... $5 imminent
$FXCM $
Would be nice to close around $3 today given it's friday...then next week shoot over $5
Go FXCM
Conference call posted in written Form on SA just now for those that prefer to read:
FXCM's (FXCM) CEO Drew Niv on Q4 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/2998256?source=ansh $FXCM
Trading was anemic this morning but I'm glad I has faith in my trading instinct and grabbed another 3k shares at 2.14
AFTER HEARING CONFERENCE CALL AND READING THE PRESENTATION SLIDES, NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING GREENER BY THE MINUTE.... $$$$$
SELLING NON CORE ASSETS WILL YIELD $250 million for FXCM...this load will be paid off way before the year is over.
Long and strong $FXCM $
To answer $uperman: this is the post I was referring to when I said "I heard the expo wasn't poppin the way people thought or expected" PR hyped it up as the real deal BIG TIME and from the looks of photos and twitter posts it was just "Ok"
But I think HEMP has some more tricks up its sleeve later this year...this show ain't over
$$$$
Scroll thru the posts here during the week after the event. Somebody attended and posted about it being pretty dead at the HEMP booth and in general...I recall somebody asking you to posts pics from the event since you said you attended and I never saw your pics posted.
I'm not bashing at all mind you....I still have a large core of shares at .02 average
But something smells fishy in regards to HEMP'S recent steady decline from the .04 range...all this good news about the decorticator getting approved and progress being made...you would think the pps wouldn't be testing the .02 range now like it is.
The expo was a disaster from what I heard...that's why no PR about it
Seems technical traders played this perfectly today...once trips were near huge volume poured in and BOOM!
..hopefully run keeps going
Yep complete chaos occurred within minutes...but I think FXCM has done a great job changing it's operations to prevent future black swan events from occuring (e.g. removing certain currency pairs from its trading platform)
Correct. Furthermore, as it stands now with FXCM collecting negative balances from its top 10% wealthiest clients (mostly institutional) which amounts to 60% of the loan amount and the soon sale of non core assets which accounts for 30% of the loan, LUK will NEVER force any such sale of assets.
Let's not forget that LUK already will receive over 25% of the loan repayment by april.
FXCM to host Conference Call and earnings after market close on Thursday March 12th 2015:
http://ir.fxcm.com/common/mobile/iphone/index.cfm?CompanyID=AMDA-13JM9E&mobileid=
I'm waiting on news regarding FXCM collecting negative balances from those 10% institutional clients. That is the big news IMHO as the article points out this debt collection will knock off 60% of the loan balance from LUK.
that doesn't even take into account the sale of non core assets which has been estimated to be worth about 30% of the loan balance.
FXCM has an easy short term target of $6-$7 from here!
All IMHO of course ;)
[QUOTE] it now moves to the full House for debate and vote on March 11[/QUOTE]
If this passes, I'm expecting a little pop this week back to .04
Not wise to empty out your reserves like that
Manipulation at its finest...regardless, if support at .0296 breaks it's gane over
Just checking in on this train wreck....ouch. after the R/S TBEV is almost trading in the trips again.
This further strengthens the belief that a R/S is never good in OTC land...hope the bag holders aren't too naive to hope for a BIG bounce from here
A nice solid support base has been building in this low $2.00 area over the past month...once volume pours in with solid news...KABOOM! payday coming
Patience will be rewarded here...;)
Fuse has been lit...ready for KABOOM! ;)
Precisely my thoughts
Article mentions LUK expects to receive more than a quarter of its investment from FXCM within 3 months. I bet all 10k of my shares they're not factoring in the sale of non-core assets in that statement. I expect FXCM to repay more than half the loan within 3 months with the sale of fastmatch.com and their other "non-core" assets
Beautiful day...glad I grabbed another 2k shares yesterday at 1.98
Support at the $2 bottom last two days was a HUGE buy signal to technical and experienced traders. If we can push ahead again tomorrow shorts will be running for the hills.
FXCM
I agree!
10q next week should ignite some solid movement. if news hits at the same time....watch out shorts!
Anybody know the names of the 4 awardees for the BARDA contracts to develop ebola antibodies? I know MERCK, NEWLINK and MAPP got one and today MEDICAGO was announced. is that it?
All this churning in the .03 range is great for the inevitable run ahead. Alaska is the 3rd state to legalize recreational MJ and Maine and other states garnering more support for HEMP farming to be legalized...elections next year will certainly rally the sector too.
$$$$$$2015$$$$$$
HEMP
Pretty good interview. Obviously with FXCM being the largest FX retail broker it makes sense they also took the biggest loss with the SNB move. It seems FXCM noted the problems that plagued the entire industry and are taking the necessary steps to ensure a similar event doesn't happen (at least to their company) in the future: hence dropping certain currencies from their trading platform that are subject to government manipulation.
I feel the sale of the non core assets will drive this back up...once the loan is close to being paid off this will shoot up a few dollars easily. Right now shareholders are in limbo and uncertain with the loan looming over their heads.
Shorts trying to take advantage of the fear but smart traders loading long positions on that same fear...
They state on their front page that their speculative:
" Each day we present our publisher's pick where we profile a stock that our publisher has taken a position in, we believe that the stock is extremely undervalued with potential for significant percentage gains. With over 1 million visitors to our blog and thousands of visitors daily, Sierra Equity provides MASSIVE MULTIPLE DAY targeted exposure to our publisher picks. We also make speculative predictions on potential mergers, acquisitions & joint ventures."