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Thank you for this new insight. Very interesting.
Perhaps this explains the relatively low sale price of the spinal portfolio.
This is not all bad; however, as it definitely simplifies any efforts to sell the remaining IP and manufacturing capabilities/deals.
OMID
I'm with you. I've been all in since last week with warrants to leverage upside. That PR on the site comes off as if something fantastic is about to happen.
https://onecast.thinkpragmatic.com/ses/8JeRIX31t6pPlM3Dm85kJA~~
I certainly stand by my earlier comments: ATNM will revolutionize medicine. This company will be enormous in due time.
OMID
Interesting new 3-d printed elastic ceramic bone..
Perhaps anyone can make a SiN filters, clothes, mattresses, etc; however, only Sintx (AMDA) can market these items are virucidal and antibacterial. This is what the patent is for.
OMID
I feel you. I have actually really been enjoying the low prices.
Decided just to grab 10K limit .37 for now as there appears to be a large force loading without showing a footprint on L2 at low .36s
Ask is essentially paper-thin; perhaps the blood letting is over.
Watching closely and waiting to buy.
Looks like the series Bs are dropping out in bloody fashion.
OMID
To answer your other question.. I am not simply holding out hope; I am very comfortable with my convictions regarding the end-game for AMDA, which were developed years ago.
With the recent liquidation, further polishing the balance sheet, while maintaining manf., R&D, and IP: I am thrilled and expect that the end is finally very close.
It is no surprise to me that the price was pushed back down yesterday; the Series B holders have put forth significant effort to be able to convert at the floor price which will finally be possible on or after 07 September 2018 (which is today).
OMID
At this point, I would not be surprised if they got PFDA/CFDA approval and simply didn't disclose it.
Kind of like the very brief but time-consolidated PR that took it to $4.
OMID
If the inventory on hand is sufficiently equivalent and can be modified to produce the new finished good, why wouldn't they proceed accordingly?
I believe they have mentioned on several occasions that they can and were actively processing and updating their old inventory.
Do you really think a few years - in a specified storage environment - would affect a material that is meant to withstand decades of repetitive loading in an extremely corrosive and dynamic environment?
Being that they are seeking to remove material, I would certainly expect them to be able to rework the inventory as boston previously suggested.
OMID
I would like to think they manufactured new product for this line they’re introducing to US markets rather than dusting the cobwebs off of product produced years ago and simply modifying it. Probably be a good idea to sell newly manufactured product when you’re competing against the incumbents.
Pushing price down to completely mad extremes was a great tactic to shake loyal longs when it recovers a bit - this thought is still relevant at multiple $$ per share IMO.
OMID
yeah, pretty much. But why not extend it beyond that if you can keep accumulating.
It's fascinating how little interest there is in this stock given the allegedly huge partnerships. It seems that the LOI in 2015 is a real killer as it dissuades any other organizations from getting in until the last moment.
OMID
Just to be clear, floor price does not mean it will not go below that price.
It simply means that any fool selling below it is a f***ing fool and sadly, after being through so much pain, I can't blame the typical retail shareholder.
Don't expect to see a lot of volume down here.. so any serious attempt to accumulate at these prices will take a lot of time.
OMID
Still not concerned; however, still impressed by how undervalued this is: IP value is totally disconnected from reality.
Can't wait to see Japan clearance and an explosion - at this point, why not take it down since it takes no volume.. it appears that they will just keep the downward spiral going to inflict maximum pain and accumulate until it pops on news.
Ain't worried for a second because I know the value is enormous but I am very upset with Sonny for throwing retailers under the bus with the recent financing. I'm starting to think all these anomalies are nothing more than a complete failure of Sonny to do his job - (withheld obscenities for our boy Sonny). Sonny: if you read this board, I want you to know that you suck. I'm ready to apply for your position.
What we have is the obvious outcome without competing forces trying to accumulate - where the hell are the big institutions and potential partners?
I suppose they not taking a stake in this until they are firm on their desire to acquire it. Until then it's crystal clear that the company needs significant capital to go it alone and when the CEo is ready to bend over to anyone, why not wait til he's infront of you begging for millions of dollars and the opportunity to dilute retail by ~80%+.
OMID
I am not sure it would spike lower without significant cash burn being that the company has expressed a clear interest in BO.. but anything is possible through manipulation as was very well-illustrated when the stock gapped down from .80+ to below .60 with ask slapping for millions of shares (all pre-market!)
Nothing I have ever seen reeks of manipulation more than that.
OMID
As I previously stated: a floor conversion price of 0.48/share using 1.1x the capital invested yields a true floor price of 0.432/share.
It appears that this level is being defended as one would expect from monied interests.
OMID
Raj, to be clear: I was not lying in my previous statements.
OMID
Yes, I forgot to add the 6M pre-financing OS.. worst case is 51M as you said.
I expect far more than 300M in the event of a merger. NOLs alone are significant value to acquirer at $225M.
OMID
Tell me how not disclosing information not previously asked from me makes me dishonest.
Why should I answer your question?
Understood.
Tranches implicate that they are issued in phases and bulk - a partial issuance. Your use of the word in financial terms is a bit of a misleading, and honestly: improper.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tranches.asp
OMID
Currently this is the case:
Therefore, the Series B conversion price is ~$0.679/share (87.5% of .776) for the next 40 trading days.
$16.5M converted at $0.679 = 24.3M shares
With 11.37M warrants (representing additional $18M in paid-in capital; fixed @ $1.6/share) and the pre-financing fully diluted share count of 6M, the new (worst-case) fully diluted OS could not be more than 41.67M
Worst-case (theoretical only; many were surely converted at best case):
$15M *1.1 = $16.5 converted at $0.48/share = 34.275M common issued.
Combined with the 11.37M warrants this represents dilution of ~88.5%
review this post
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=142138885
Also this one, references at the bottom
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=142082051
Do you mind sharing your worst case OS scenario.
The are no tranches.. just various conversion prices.. the conversion price will soon to be dynamic, changing daily when above the floor price, after September 7th.
There are no conversion windows, I can convert whenever I want.
I have personally computed next and worst case OS.. Boston you need to add some of this stuff to your sticky, I'm growing tired of setting the board straight on all things related to the financing.
OMID
I posted a theory earlier to explain this.. Zimmer wants to enrich their loyal institutional holders. The price does not significantly change for them if AMDA dilutes.. they could've legitimately accomplished this by telling Sonny that they expect to buy the company only if it is free of debt. It may have also been a tactic by Sonny to cover his ass legally and very rid of the debt owed him by the company.
OMID
This was a toxic financing, than God it had a floor price.. once again, terrible terms by Sonny.. imagine if he had some more charisma to properly market the technology and IP to investors. Still stand by what I said earlier: I could've done a better job for sure.
OMID
Yeah, certainly. Now they covering on the back end with conversions.
If they spike it on high volume they can short it and cover with the conversion without holding more than 5-10% at any time
What makes you think they can't convert very fast? Elaborate on what you think fast is.. 24 hours between notice of conversion and sale of the common stock received on the public market? This is certainly possible through shorting against your future position via the securities dealer.
As for strong-arming the series b holders, the are not many good outcomes for retail. My expectation is that only lackadaisical series b holders (if any!) may get shafted but no active, knowledgeable holders will be affected, especially since the securities dealer will provide warnings and advice to their customers if anything meaningful should arise. I'll outline the options below:
1) forced conversion - stock must trade above $4.3536 with over $500K in volume for 30 consecutive days before they can force conversion. Perhaps good for retail if this happens after a pop but before merger announcement.
2) redemption - starting 6 months post-closing of the financing, the company had the option to buy preferred back at a 25% premium to the stated value AND requires the company to provide a 30-day written notice.
3) fundamental transactions (e.g. merger) - warrants are not affected: they are convertible as usual for up to 30 days post-announcement OR the acquirer can be forced to buy them with cash. Series B likewise will be able to convert into the acquirer's stock or any "additional consideration receivable".
None really have teeth toward the series b.. which figures because this financing was Sonny bending over backwards as I said before.
OMID
Importantly, they traded their plan and accepted the risk that a significantly positive material event might happen prior to the 80-85th trading day.
It appears that they will ultimately cover whatever remains of their lost position (whatever they can't sucker retail into selling to them down here), used to take the price down, when they convert at floor price.
Same deal as the shorting from $4 to concert with the series b and warrants..
OMID
80th trading day.. not 80th day.
The date is clearly defined in the most recent financing filing , filed the morning the deal was finalized.
OMID
If you attempt to approach this situation thinking as an institution or MM that wants to load up on a long position, this all makes sense.
What an upset to ruin the cup and handle, pennant, and golden cross.. an upset I imagine a lot of day traders and technical traders did not stick around to hold onto by this point.
It's taken a while but I think we finally bottomed today. It was quite a large swing but now we've scraped all the weaklings off and they can once again start buying at large volumes to load technical seekers and people who are disenfranchised as they take it to the next level.
OMID
Put on your institutional cap for a second and consider why you would go to such great lengths to ensure that you are converting your series b at the lowest possible conversion price.
Why would I care about the difference between 0.67 and 0.48/share conversion price. As I have shown extensively, it ultimately amounts to an additional 8% of the OS from aconversion price of 1.45 versus 0.48/share.
An army of fake shorts posting nonsense all day to keep the bottom feeders and stock sleuths at bay. Millions of shares forcibly sold at unnecessarily-low prices the day we gapped down.. mound you that this manipulation came with a guaranteed significant loss on the price tag.
My expectation is that they are fighting for a measly 8% that must be worth one hell of a lot of dough.
OMID
A few facts about the recent financing to set the board straight:
1) the wanrants are not equal to the series b preferred shares.
2) the warrants are convertible at any time.. you may pay the company ~$1.60 directly to retrieve a common share versus buying them at ~$0.50 on the public market.
3) the is no meaningful forced conversion of series b shares that you all need to be considering applicable at this point
4) the series b are currently convertible for ~$0.67/share and the shares would be tradable within days if not sooner - no converter has made a profited selling below this price.
5) day 80 is September 7th.. the conversion price will become a variable which changes daily.. on any given day it will be determined by the prior 5-day VWAP. The floor price will remain 0.48 and with the 10% conversion bonus the floor price is effectively 0.438. The converters cannot profit below that price without a new financing deal offering better terms to which the series b holders will be matched.
It is clear as a glass that what happened when we gapped down was manipulation. Who suddenly moves to sell millions of shares by placing an ask wall 25% below the prior close at 7AM and otherwise goes to great lengths to ensure that the price stays down despite the intense buying pressure?
My take on it all is that the financiers will hold her down here until they can convert after september 7th for the floor price... at this point there will no longer be a reason to hold the stock down and it will absolutely grow wings and fly.
I am not perplexed or confused whatsoever by the financing terms or how the financiers are going to play this. I am abit shocked at the extent of this manipulation but I am with them and you all at the same time.
OMID
Haven't we had some examples posted by CL of these types of deals where the valuation is based on synergy?
There may have been some type of discount applied but the IP was significantly valued in the end nonetheless.
If a company is valued at 5 million on the stock exchange, nobody pays 1.5 billion. Nobody ever paid such a premium and nobody will.
There is a lot of valid criticism of management. I for one believe that Sonny really gave away the company on the last financing. I was expecting a buyout to be reasonably priced somewhere over $200/share price prior to the financing; however, I now expect that buyout price to be in excess if $35/share, with overall price constant at $1.5B.
Realistically, I don't think $1.5B is enough.. at $5B the current buyout will be roughly $110/share. Perhaps a 1:1 share swap is still possible.
I would love to believe that the financing decisions have been sound but I'm confident that I could've obtained better financing terms. Simple, effective communication of what AMDA is would've done the trick - a little passion and excitement couldn't have hurt either. Based on everything I've seen over the years, I'm doubtful that these are skills that Sonny commands; the market doesn't seem to disagree with that either.
Importantly: IMO, it's almost over guys. Ash has been getting me very excited with his sleuthing lately.
OMID
It's a short attack or a shake by people interested in loading. If I was trying to load, disappointing traders on the golden cross and hunting stops would be my play as well.
I expect that the worst is over and look forward to the Actimab trial news.
OMID.
Excellent analysis.. there's truly a remarkable opportunity here when you assess the facts as you did.
The science and product are nothing short of proven to be legit - this is not some speculative investment into a potentially superior solution.
The partnerships scream value as well and in normal cases, public disclosure is perceived very favorably and is subsequently reflected by a pop in the share price.
At this point I refuse to let go of what I'm holding. It really feels very close now after many years.
The extreme manipulation here is appalling and it is only possible because the wider market is not usurping control and setting the price based on the facts.
AMDA is currently being priced more unfairly than if it amounted to a preclinical long-shot miracle cure which is certain to be raising tons of capital through several rounds of financing for years of development with the possibility of heartache with a failure to meet the endpoint.
I don't believe the narrative that the share price is telling for a second. I'm very calmly and patiently holding and will add if my other play pops, hopefully this month.
OMID
Great insight. Thanks for sharing.
OMID
It was pretty clear that this is heavily manipulated the moment it gapped down from the 80s to sub 60 and held there despite heavy buying.
Something very interesting is going on here. As I said earlier, they may stagnate it at these lows to allow time for people to release their shares.
OMID
Not at all my man. I'm just kicking back and waiting for the dawn; they say it is always darkest before the dawn.
If my other key investment plays out before dawn strikes here, I will be adding heavily.
OMID