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I guess we know where all the money came from to keep the global markets from crashing...
JPY carry trade and a big fear of deflation out of the fed(s), i guess the leveraged players get nervous when rates get a few tics above %0.00 in japan and sell everything they can
BOJ injects funds to market to check rapid rate rises
The Bank of Japan on Thursday morning injected 500 billion yen into the money market in a same-day bill-buying operation, in a bid to curb recent surges in short-term interest rates.
It is the central bank's first same-day fund-supplying money market operation in about 15 months.
Overnight interest rates have been rising at a quick pace recently, causing worries among market players, a senior BOJ official said.
The weighted average of unsecured overnight call rates, the BOJ's monetary policy target, rose to 0.035 percent on Wednesday. The key short-term interbank rate stood at around 0.001 percent under the BOJ's quantitative easing policy, which ended in March.
The sharp rise in the call rate reflects progress in the BOJ's fund absorption from the banking system since it scrapped the extremely accommodative monetary policy. The balance of private financial institutions' current account deposits with the BOJ totaled 12.54 trillion yen on Wednesday, nearly one-third of their peak.
The BOJ announced its fund injection on Thursday after the call rate hit 0.08 percent. The rate dropped temporarily after the announcement but bounced back soon and stayed at 0.05 to 0.07 percent in late morning trading.
Financial market players welcomed the fund-supplying operation by the central bank.
The BOJ's operation indicated interest rate levels the central bank currently deems too high, a market source said. A major bank official said the BOJ action will help check rate rises to some extent. (Jiji Press)
May 25, 2006
its frustrating when you watch whats actually happening in the market, and then a certain "invisible hand" seems to come in and suddenly buy massive blocks and contracts at some random ass price that completely ignores convential 'market manipulation' techniques and technicals of the market, usually goes market and you see 2 or 3 big candles before the natural market forces kick in and start pressuring the market again...
especially premarket in the futures market... run us up and then try and hold the gap for the market to find brave buyers and traders...did it monday but it failed horribly...held the lows yesteday...and they're doing it again today...
internals are garbage and yet we're up on a double digit bounce? there's massive distribution and liquidation going on across the world and we're bouncing and holding 10 - 15 pts before crashing again....
they did in in 04' and 05' , interestingly enough right after they had Hiddenburg Omens(a set of coditions that if met predict a crash or large decline w/ amazing accuracy), as we have NINE Hiddenburg Omen clusters in the las 2 months...
"In September 2005, the Fed pumped $148 billion in liquidity from the first week in September, just before the Hindenburg Omens were generated - to the third week of October, an 11 percent annual rate of growth in M-3 (2.5 times the rate of GDP growth and 5 times the reported inflation rate), to stave off a crash. The liquidity held the market to a 2.2 percent decline from the initiation of the signal.
In April 2004, the Fed pumped $155 billion in liquidity from the last week in April - right after the Hindenburg Omens were generated - to the third week of May, a 22 percent annual rate of growth in M-3, to stave off a crash. Even with the liquidity, the market still fell 5.0 percent." - Robert McHugh, Ph.D [Why the NASDAQ Decline is No Surprise:
The Past Performance of the Hindenburg Omen,
from 1985 through 2006 - An Update]
S&P starting to get crushed again... a few points from going red again...UH OH
I wish.... im gonna be in this 'country' to the end, whenever that my be
in any event, if what im saying does come true it will move us much closer to the goals of a world government/police state and a single global fiat currency...
"We shall have World Government, whether or not we like it. The only question is whether World Government will be achieved by conquest or consent." - Paul Warburg, Banking agent of Rothschild family, alleged to control the majority of the worlds wealth
although we are almost there already... U.N ICC IMF WHO WTO NAFTA EUROPEAN UNION EURO , the plans for an american superstate and single currency(Amero), Patriot Act(complete distruction of the bill of rights), Homeland Security, Biometric Ids, NSA spying and databases , 7 times as much debt as money in the system, removal of M3, actions of the Gold Cabal etc etc etc.
all for global security and to fight terrorism...people need to realize who the real terrorists are...
market got support overnight by a "hidden hand" and is now bouncing on the incredibly weak durable goods #s as a pause in rates becomes more plausible
can the fed pause? NO, unless they want the dollar to plummit and a further push of paniced dollars into the safety of the prescious metals...
and we all know how hard the central banks have and will continue to fight the Gold market
S&P bouncing early, i have no f'n clue whats going on right now
S&P futures trade up to 125900 overnite then return to 125100...
WE've traded 130k contracts overnite which is insane...expect the fed to be active in the markets pumping them full of liquidity(buying) to fight the deflationary spiral thats starting...
if we break under yesterday afternoon 124675 low then watch out....
S&P futures trade down to 1246.75 after hours... pushing about 6 points under the close and now about 29 points lower than it was 3 hours ago
...yes the market dropped about %2.5 in under 3 hours... and is till under heavy pressure
Wednesday May 24 2006: STOCK MARKET CRASH possible...
With todays action I feel we have a higher probability chance for a crash or significant decline tomorrow than ever before in the history of my following the market... between now and the 2nd week of june i would pt the odds about 50/50 ... trade carefully
we went from + 13 to -10 , to close at the LOD on HEAVY panic selling... im curious to see how the futures trade after globex opens in a lil bit
but the action this afternoon was very scary, the only chance now is for the fed to step in a pump this thing full of liquidity... but w/ inflation where its at their hands seem to be tied...
They gap the market up and hold it up all day... then in the last 2 hours we go from + 13 to close - 3, even after cash closed we're still getting pressure on the futures and they just broke yesterdays low, we got within 4 pts of the crucial 125000 level
it looked like a race to get out of the market into the close...could tomorrow be the day that everyone has feared? maybe
GOLD on the other hand had a very strong day bouncing as much as 37 points of its monday low ... looking for pullbacks to add to my position
Dow priced in gold(BELOW)...historical average is around 9 which would price gold @ 1300 based on todays dow, or the dow @ 5850 based on todays gold...
BUT, and heres the good part, theres two lower lows between the great depression and the 80's inflation scare/crash...connecting those lows you come to an area around 1, which would put gold @ 11,700 based on todays dow, or the dow @ 650 on todays gold price....
i cant imagine those extremes happening (ex. gold moving to the extreme and the dow staying costant) so if you take a simple midpoint you would get a gold price and a price of the dow around 6175...
WE have been and contine to be in a bear market in equities, since 2000, the dow chart you see on cnbc is an illussion, you need to hold a value constant if you want to use it as a measure of another things value, and we all the know dollar is anything but a constant....
first time in a week and a half ive seen some effort to put a bottom in....
S&P would need to push up another 2.5 pts to break its descending ressistance line thats been in place for 8 days around 126650 in ES06M ... looks like we could do 1.5 mil + contracts today which is a BIG days, slow days are around 400 - 600k contracts...
the volume is there but is anyone other than the fed ready to step in and support the market? seems doubtful but the market does need a break from its oversold condition... if it holds this down channel(which im betting it will) and we break 125000 then id be very worried being long any equity market, anywhere in the world... India crashed today, Europe and Asia have been taking a hit as well, the S&P has dropped 8 days straight and fell as much as 77 points so far...
any more and panic will start to manifest itself, there are alot of people long and alot of bullish sentiment out there, as major technical levels are broken to the downside you have longs being forced out, technical and program positions coming on strong, and large institution players will look for protection by selling futures or buying puts, putting more pressure on cash markets...
Gold has rallied 20 pts off the low this morning... i love the gaps they put in driving gold down at the begining of NY trading, rumors of some big players adding to shorts near the highs, this gold market is trouble for ALOT of people...if it can crack the overwhelming short put on by central banks and some big players all hell will break lose....
if people start to see gold testing its old nominal high of 850 and the market dropping, and bonds dropping, and the USD dollar dropping the move in gold will be so fast and furious ... all China has to do is up their gold reserves from %1.5 to %5 and you could easily see new highs...Middle Eastern Countries and Russia are also suspected of increasing gold supplies as they understand whats going on and the type of paper short position there is out there...
all that i know for sure is this is gonna be a crazy year...
no, it will be much much worse
sorry for all the pessimism but we gotta be ready for it
GOLD targets:
$1000/oz + by the end of 2006
$3000/oz + within 5 years if the US economy/dollar doesnt collapse...
if the USD does collapse, which i think it will, gold will be invaluable.... you wont be able to find an ounce anywhere
a brief glimpse of inflation: if it wasnt for our policy of exporting inflation using oil priced in dollars, importing deflation from southeast asia, and understating consumer/producer price growth our USD would be half the value it was in 1997... but the system is close to critical mass and the house of cards is about to fall apart
Long Gold ~ 655 and Long GLD 64.95 ... needed to get long gold into the weekend after a %10 correction from the highs...
if central banks and wholesale bullion banks weren't trying to keep the price artificially low for the last 20 years and we had an accurate measure of inflation out of the fed Gold would be 1000+ already....
Its crazy how many people price gold on conventional fed inflation measures and yet they dont care about the MASSIVE growth in money supply over the last 93 years that the fed recently stopped reporting on, the M3 number.
Whats even scarier are these economists and pundits claiming that the rise in metals , energy, housing prices is the CAUSE of inflation. high prices DONT CAUSE inflation, they are the consequence of inflation and reduced purchasing power, which is cuased by an increase in the money supply(i.e. more dollar bills printed and loaned out of thin air)
Why should Americans who are the major USD holders, care how many dollar bills "hellicopter ben" can legally counterfeit anyway ?
Orders in to buy physical gold @ 656, will add every 20 pts lower until a good portion of my assets are in the precious metals ... a lil late to the gold party but in terms of TRUE inflated dollars gold should be in the 1000's, its not a speculative play but a very defensive move to protect assets as the USD and paper assets emplode
also looking to buy palladium < 360
bulls tried all morning to bounce the market, that failed miserably and we give up another 10 pts after being + 7 in the morning... we've given up 70 pts in 6 days
1250 fails and who knows how low we go... if we break it tomorrow things should get real ugly
ya, the fed governors literally lieing to the market about a rate pause pushed us higher than i thought we would go before this...
next 2 weeks will give us the signal as to wether this is simply a large pullback in the 3 yr bull market or if this is something bigger...
in 5 days we've lost almost all the gains this year, and if you price the market in gold we're down BIG...
get out of the market, get out of debt, get out of the USD...
PRECIOUS METALS on the first significant pullback, real-estate(if prices crash), and maybe the Swiss Franc if you NEED to hold a paper currency
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN IN S&P ... market rolls over and dies, giving up 55 pts in 5 trading sessions - market participants will be scrambling to buy volatility(especially to the downside) and take on added protection/insurance putting more pressure on market to push important support levels and take the bulls with some brains out of the market.. the rest of the morons will wait to sell sub 125000 in ES
u better believe it...
started buying short end of yield curve today...
Long 912828EY2 UNITED STATES TREASURY NOTE 4.62% 02/29/2008 - YIELD %4.86
will add to it until fed is done or sends us into recession....
target hit, a little late but good enough w/ ES06M trading to a 132150 high and cash hitting ~ 1310.00... im still looking for a top in the market here, but will condition it with the possibility for another blow-off/capitualion rally before we finally roll over and die...
Posted by: jon_e_og
In reply to: None Date:1/28/2006 7:13:06 PM
Post #of 1950
The end of the 3 yr bull market... according to cycle highs/lows , wave pattern, and overall sturcture of S&P we should have 1 more high somewhere between 1310 - 1325 in S&P futures(1305 + in cash) sometime in late February or early March...
S&P target by early
havent tried, but i cant get the time & sales trade data for the forex market like i can for futures, and if i did the number of transactions would be too massive to run regressions of...
3 day mean price still moving up, high probability buys 128500 - 128000(which we could buy now in globex market) and higher prob buys < 128500
high prob sells 129500 - 129850 and higher prob sells > 129850
the rest of the sad story...
from 129550 ES goes to 129900 giving 11.5 pts from the buy...then i sell 129775, market tops i cover for + 3 and it drops to 128600 giving up 11.75 points from the sell...
a total of 23.25 potential points i only get 6...
low of the day was 128450, bought 128750, sold for +3 and then it goes + 8 to 129550, which is in the sell zone as well...
Bullish bias in ES above 128400(if that fails looking @ 128100 and 127850 to downside), looking to buy 128600 - 128850, on the upside looking for markte to test 129400 - 129650, which may work as a good sell if ES stays < 199800, if that falls then will look for ES to test 130300/130400
we got 1 tic off 130000 and failed yesterday, we broke 128500 and stopped at the 128000 level outlined as support,
127775 127500 127275 to watch on downside tomorrow, looking to SELL 128475 to 128725
system giving some conflicting signals but mainly to buy above support w/ high probability buys 128725 - 129000, looking for ES to hold 128500, if 128500 fails on downside system says to look for 128000 area next...
key areas to watch will be 129600(last weeks highs) 129800 and 130100, if we get through 129600 I have a feeling the bulls will run the market through stops and 130100 could fall very quickly, at that point id be looking for ES to make an attempt at 131000 - 131500 sometime this week
ya we had dips to 128825 and 128700 and 128900, which were all high probability buys and gave atleast 5 points....
tried 5 buys total, 2 were filled and both worked for more than 1 pt...all 5 would have given profit if could have filled
if it wasnt for Oil + 2 i think our 129700 target would have been reached...
system saying to buy dips over 128500, possible 129700 today which could trigger some programs and stops into 130100 area....
system worked very well again today, tomorrow similar story, overall bulltrend in pullback mode building a base above the support area outlined yesterday, will look to buy in front of 128000 and sell under 129500 or so for high probability trades....
longterm down trend into subpenny zone, trying to build a base down here but history has shown it unable to put in any real bottom...there has been a large pick up in volume off the new lows which is bullish but was unable to hold above above .043 retrace after its test of .07 ressistance
Id be watching for a .045 break on some volume and increase my position on a .07 break...would also like to see it hold .03, remember this is an illiquid OTC in longterm downtrend that ur trying to play off bottom, it needs to prove itself first
athlonmanK deals w/ these otcbb bottom plays, maybe he can give his opinion as well...
good luck
System showing S&P still in bulltrend w/ decreasing volatility, a sign 130000 + is coming in ES shortly... I think we need a pullback before bulls can take the 130100 down... our high probability sells are 129900 or better and 129750 - 129900, but if we get that close to 130100 the bulls may want to break it out, if we make moves up there on monday morning and market strucutre accomodates it may be wise to sell, if we pullback and hold support then we'll probably wait for a break of 130100 to start our selling party ... the main message is pullback -> support building around 128000 - 128275 -> 130100 break -> breakout move -> MULTI YEAR TOP in S&P (remember the call for a high in ES in late Feb / early March)
today we're getting conflicting signals, theres a high probability sell at 128575 or better, and a lower probability sell at 128225 or better(which we could sell right now premarket) , but there is also a small chance we make a run at 129000, in any event the high probability trade is still a sell, it just may need some room to work...
nope, created it myself, in 2 days its opened about 30 pts in the S&P, i cant believe it
i missed buying the LOD yesterday by 1 tic, lol
the new system called todays move almost perfectly, tomorrow its saying we go lower, a %99.5 chance of lower prices selling 128150 or better, a %97.5 chance selling 127700 or better - it sounds crazy, but we could retrace most of yesterdays move, would target 126700 area on extreme move... (the dates on bottom of chart are wrong, the data represents last 4 trading days)
please son, daddy got paid tonite
Seattle better win, or atleast not lose by 5, 6, 7, or 25+
and also... no t/ds from the 1 yrd line