Wow, What a surprise, Jorj, Lisa, and Lola. And me without my bottle of Myer's rum.

To think I thought this was about oil drilling. <gg>

Jack

Be nice to have fixed font for tables.

Jack

Can you change the misspelled "agressive" to "aggressive" on my thread?

Thanks,

Jack

Update on Marketcaps, Growth
2/19/01
Sorted by market cap from yahoo, numbers in Billions
PE per Yahoo
Only those over 1B in cap tracked.
Y2y Rev growth per briefing using last quarter’s
Future growth per Zacks using FY2001
For those with FY2001 ending in Jun, FY2002 was used
Company Mrkcap PE Grwth Future
1)MSFT 305 31 7 5 Gained 70B in cap
2)CSCO 203 69 54 30 Dropped 70B in cap
3)INTC 231 22 6 -30 Big 27% drop in growth
4)IBM 201 25 5 12 Gained 60B in cap
5)AOL 206 109 27 44 Gained 109B in cap
6)ORCL 134 21 14 21 Dropped 40B incap
7)NOK 124 35 45 20 Dropped 80B in cap
8)EMC 118 67 39 30 Dropped 40B in cap
9)T 81 22 3 -31
10)SUNW 75 36 43 26
11)ERICY 70 33 11 42
12)HWP 64 22 2 1
13)TXN 63 21 15 -18
14)NT 61 na 34 28
15)Q 61 81 9 1 PE too high for growth
16)QCOM 60 584 -10 18
17)DELL 60 28 27 11
18)ALA 49 41 26 23
19)JDSU 46 na 228 25
20)WCOM 45 11 15 -21
LU 43 na 26 -137
MOT 40 31 11 -2
AMAT 39 18 58 -16 big drop in earnings est
CPQ 37 67 10 22
VRTS 30 na 63 50
GLW 30 70 52 14
SEBL 27 327 110 101
JNPR 25 188 550 91
MU 25 16 15 -32 big drop in ests
CIEN 24 197 131 113
PCS 22 na 83 42
A 22 30 37 36
SLR 20 34 100 26
TLAB 20 27 42 29
CHKP 20 107 106 50
NXTL 19 na 50 144
BEAS 19 na 77 53
GMST 18 2623 -1 17 Seems high
BRCM 17 na 132 40
ADI 17 26 57 25
ITWO 15 na 115 41
YHOO 15 281 53 -23
GX 15 na 15 -17
FLEX 15 na 90 35
EBAY 13 283 81 82 seems high
NTAP 13 147 90 94
AMCC 13 na 213 43
PALM 12 210 102 64 big jump in estimates
ALTR 11 23 55 6
BRCD 11 191 339 120
VRSN 11 na 613 -19
LVLT 11 na 150 -84
VTSS 11 333 84 47 Seems high
EXDS 8.8 na 176 -27 big drop in growth
ADBE 8.7 32 26 17
PMCS 8.5 144 152 2 Big drop in growth
SFA 8.3 30 69 17
KLAC 7.9 22 73 -18
AMD 7.4 8 21 -17
ATML 6.8 26 47 51
XOXO 6.6 na 181 -50
WCG 6.6 na 80 -258
LSI 6.5 29 28 -5
AAPL 6.5 18 57 -105
SCMR 6.3 504 413 50
MERQ 6.3 112 62 33
SONS 6.3 na na 95 seems high
AMT 6.2 na 209 17
MFNX 6.2 na 383 -183
NVLS 6.0 24 121 22
ONIS 5.8 na 2147 78 seems high
ARBA 5.4 na 624 265
RBAK 5.3 na 339 92
JBL 5.3 32 63 26
CORV 4.9 na na 62 growth up, cap down
AMZN 4.8 na 43 31
QLGC 4.7 83 72 40
CMRC 4.6 na 1033 104
RMBS 4.5 na 190 121
TIBX 4.4 na 213 31 cap dropped in half
HAND 4.1 na 623 112
CNXT 4.1 na 19 -134 seems high
RIMM 3.7 1077 160 381
EXTR 3.4 167 163 95 seems cheap
FNSR 3.3 na 177 66
EMLX 2.8 58 111 27 cap dropped in half
RFMD 2.5 47 9 7 seems high
BVSN 2.4 na 212 43
WIND 2.3 na 37 51
NUFO 2.3 na 394 188 cap flat, growth up
AKAM 2.3 na 1279 50
ATHM 2.3 na 31 41
AVNX 2.3 na 637 163
STOR 1.9 na 577 31
PWER 1.8 42 109 40 seems cheap
NETE 1.7 780 345 520
FDRY 1.6 20 90 0 dropped half of cap
INKT 1.6 na 122 -29
VIGN 1.4 na 202 137 cap dropped in half
RNWK 1.3 na 34 -31
BKHM 1.2 na 454 51
INRG 1.2 84 48 na
AETH 1.1 na 537 -82
WFII 0.9 36 124 165

Dropped coverage
SAWS, SSTI, PRSF, MRVC, KOPN, BRZE, MTSN

Jack

KOPN CC
Pr Stuff
Revenue increased 81 percent to $24.6 million compared with $13.6 million for the same period in 1999. -- Product revenue increased 84.6 percent to $24.0 million in the fourth quarter from $13.0 million for the same period a year ago.
Net income increased 343 percent to $3.4 million, or $0.05 per fully diluted share, from net income of $776,664, or $0.01 per fully diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 1999. Net income for the fourth quarter of 2000 excludes a charge of $7.4 million, or $0.11 per share, for write-off of in-process R&D and related acquisition costs of Super Epitaxial Products.

Revenue from III-V products increased 64 percent to $18.2 million from $11.1 million for the fourth quarter of 1999. (Note:Kopin will use the term "III-V" to incorporate the breadth of its semiconductor processes, including GaAs HBT and its newly introduced carbon-doped Indium Phosphide HBT).

CyberDisplay(TM)product revenue increased 190 percent to $5.8 million from $2.0 million for the fourth quarter of 1999.

Commenting on the outlook for Kopin's business, Dr. Fan said, "Our CyberDisplay business should produce another solid year in 2001. With the advent of miniature DVD and video game technology, we expect to continue our penetration into the consumer electronics market both in the U.S. and abroad, and should begin to see demonstration units of 3G technology by the end of the second quarter. However, for the first quarter of 2001, we expect CyberDisplay revenue to decline sequentially because of softer-than-expected consumer electronics sales and an unsettled supply agreement with one customer.
"In our III-V business, general economic conditions and much weaker-than-anticipated handset sales have made our short-term outlook cautious," Fan continued. "In particular, forecast revisions by a number of handset OEMs, coupled with excess inventories industry-wide, will adversely affect our revenue in the first half of 2001. Consequently, we expect first-quarter revenue in the range of $12 million to $14 million, and a net loss in the range of $0.09 per share to $0.12 per share.
However, we expect that growth rates for the second half of 2001 should be in line with the first half of 2000. Our new III-V products should enable Kopin to capitalize on emerging trends in the fiber-optic industry and strategically position the company for the eventual rebound in wireless handset manufacturing."

CC Notes
Dr. Fan
- very challenging economic environment
- 24.6M in rev, up 81% y2y
- 18.2m for III-V products
- 5.8M in Cyberdisplay rev
- 3.3M in net income or 0.05 EPS
- Highlights: Optical communication product group created
- CXNT and NT relationship continue
- Matshushita, Samsung are customers.
- Shipped 1 millionth cyberdisplay in August
- III-V – completed Super Epi acquisition
- newly introduced carbon-doped Indium Phosphide HBT (or called GAIN) for OC-768 use and 3G wireless phones.
- KOPN and Rockwell introduced first commercial HbT product in the world.
- Cyberdisplay going to PDAs, been sampling to customers and feedback is positive.
- Resolved Cyberdisplay supply issue
- Financial overview
- 24.6M in revs and up 4% q2q
- 22.0M in product rev, 3% q2q
- III-V was 18.2M flat q2q
- Cyberdisplay 5.9M up 92% q2q
- Netincome was 3.3M,
- EPS was 0.05 vs. 0.06 last q.
- 73.8% cost of goods sold
- R&D was 5.6%
- SG&A 13.5% of rev, increased to amorization of Super Epitaxial acquisition
- Oper Income was 1.9M vs. 2.9M last q
- Super Epitaxial will be 5 cent dilutive to earnings for 2001
- 73.2M in cash, equities
- Debt 1.2M
- 15.3M in acct rec,
- 69 DSO
- 46% CXNT, 16% Mitshubishi
- Handset affecting HbT sales
- Fiber optics remain on track
- Cyberdisplay will be down due to one customer slowdown
- 0.09-12 loss EPS for next quarter
- Anticipate rebound second half in wireless handsets
- Dr. Fan objectives
- We are market and technology leader in our product and will invest to keep our technological edge
- Wireless, Fiber optics and minuature displays are focus area
- Economic pressure created significant declines in last several weeks.
- Q&A
- CSFB – congrats – Super Epi acquisition and GAIN?
- A: Super EPI has helped us in it, Looks at new products better.
- Reduce voltage with N2 addition?
- A: yes, we decreased about 150-170 mV, question with how much it can go in a PA. If we have a two stage amplieflier, we use a 3 volt battery. We are going activity to persue 2.7V phone which is in demand.
- Why no weakness in OC-192?
- A: We don’t think be a decrease but not much inventory to NT.
- Monet – Outlook for q1?
- A: We saw dropoff in the last 2-3 weeks. One customer substantially reduces and also another too.
- CNXT buying less?
- Expect for fiber optic, demand is slowing across the board. Some believe a rebound in q3.
- Lost clients?
- More a volume issue. There volume growth has change
- Sandy Harrison – 10% customer for q
- CXNT 38%, Mitsubishi 12%. Some others were getting close to 10%.
- Not seen weakness from NT?
- Fiber optics see no weakness so far.
- Optical %?
- 16% of revs
- Availability of substrates?
- We see always a challenge, but market is softening. Our supplier considering it a strong business.
- InPh?
- A: Coming on much faster than anyone thinking of it. Going to be important for OC-768 technology. InPh uses 1.5V vs. 3V. The questions is the cost. Will go in production late this year. Availabiliy of substrate depends on substrate manufacturer to ramp it up in 6 months. Manufacturing of InpH can be changed from current 4 inch GaAs fabs. We can grow InPh in our current system. Botleneck will be substrate mfrs.
- When Clear up Cyberdisplay supply issue?
- Did it all quarter, finished at the enfd of q
- Capacity?
- New facilty about ready to be moved into. Shifting to fiber optic items and hope to introduce these products the second half. Moving scientists and engineer into new product developments. Not going to ramp up HbT capacity.
- Nonrecurring items?
- 500K will be superEpi acquisition will be reoccuring, 500K in InPh patents, more marketing in 3G phones for 3G phones in Japan
- Pricing for HbT wafers?
- In line with projections. ASP %625, Will decline 10-15% in 2001 as standard in the semi sector. Customers want pricing releif of 10-15% more.
- Cyberdisplay breakeven?
- Good question, discussing price vs. quanity with vendors. Trying to expand into camcorders, but customers want pricing relief. Debating if we want to go that way. Most want B&W cyberdisplays.
- Losses in cyberdisplay?
- 30% in operating Margin, lost 2M overall.
- 3G design wins?
- Focusing on 3G phones in Japan since first to come out with it with NTT Docomo. No announcements since sensitive now. Color video phone is the future demand. Our display good for this. The margin is very good.
- Carl Mooney – cyberdisplay can it go away if KOPN no reduce price.
- Two customers satisfied, third wants ramp up with comensurate decrease in price. We are focusing on phone. Cautiously optimistic that we will get their business. Will finalized in next few week whether we go with third customer’s demands.
- III-V?
- Rev growth for first q will be 50%, Second quarter will be flat, see growth in second half.
- CIBC – InGap?
- Ingap (optical ) has partially increased. Customer want low cost for their customer.
- 6 inch production?
- Qualifying two more 6 inch machines and should produce rev in second quarter. Should be nmaterial rev.
- GAIN vs. competition?
- Shipping production for GAIN is not clear due to visibilty. People are sampling product. InPH will come out this year. GAIN will come out late this year or next year.
- Supply dispute on cyberdisplay?
- Not a dispute, negotiaton on volume vs. price. We priced cyberdisplay to gain share in camcorders. Target is the phone not camcorders.
- Cashflow?
- 2.5M in depreaiton and amorization. We generated 2M in cashflow for the quarter and negative for next two quarters. Cashflow positive second half.
- III-V and Cyberdisplay GM?
- Cyberdisplay GM target is 35%, III-V is 40-45% GM longterm
- Rev guidance?
- Rev for HbT will be down 50% q1 and sequentially flat in q2. Rebound second half.

See prev post for last q CC notes

CNXT is the albatross on KOPN’s neck.

Jack

Nice set of charts Reid,

Thanks for the hard work.

Jack

Screening through some stocks
Every 4 months or so, I try to screen through stocks of a wide cross section to get a feel what area is strong.

1) PE lower than last quarters net income y2y growth rate. No net losses or declines in net losses.

Fail: DELL, BGP, NTAP, GLW, PALM, DCI, X, PHA, PFE, MDT, CAT, AMCC, BRCM, CSCO, ITWO, MRVC, PMCS, RMBS, SEBL, ACPW, BLDP, EFCX, HPOW, IMCO, PLUG, SATC, GMST, JDSU, QCOM, WIND, ABUY, DTOX, GECC, THFZ, CXNT, CUBE, EXDS, GSTRF, GX, LNOP, LOR, LU, MFNX, NEON, NOVL, NSM, NT, NUFO, PCS, STOR, TERN, TSIX, WCOM, XLA, XLNX, SCMR, AVCI, AVNX, LVLT, MCLD, MONI, Q, XOXO, VRTS, ENE, CPST, XXIA, RFMD, CPQ, CHINA, ISLD, DITC, EK, TXU, FNSR, EXTR, HAND, RIMM, IART, ISIL, ININ, KLIC, LIOX, INCY, MLNM, MLTX, NMSS, NTCT, NSIL, ONIS, PUMA, OPLK, OPWV, SNE, SNCI, SONO, VIRS, TUTS, ZANY, FLEX, UAL, YHOO, EMKR, TIBX, DOW, MSFT, IBM, AOL, NXTL, VRSN, SYMC, ARBA, VTSS, QLGC, RBAK, CORV, AMT, WCG, T, GTW, AAPL, CMRC, SONS, VIGN, AKAM, INKT, ATHM, BKHM, AETH, INRG, SLAB, FFIV, ALL, BJ, SO, AEP, MIR, XEL, ED, CIN, EXC, PPL, DTE, CEG, FE, BMCS, BBY, TOY, SPLS, LOW, DPH, NSC, ACI, BK, BUD, CEPH, CHTR, CMH, CVS, DNA, ECL, EV, FLM, GLM, HSY, IMCL, JPM, KDN, KMB, KMI, LNCR, MCO, MO, NOI, OXHP, PNC, RATL, RCGI, RSAS, SWY, THC,

Pass: BRCD, DRMD, ORCL, INTC, DELL, SCHL, UCL, UPS, CIEN, CREE, MNMD, NEWP, SUNW, AVA, IDA, UTX, EMC, SNDK, A, ADI, ATML, CY, EDS, LSI, MOT, WFII, JNPR, ALA, TQNT, TXCC, C, EPG, CCMP, APC, PTEN, BRZE, KOPN, AHAA, CPN, CYTC, EMLX, FDRY, JBL, CLS, SLR, HSE, MARY, SUN, IRF, KEM , AVN, AVX, VSH, AMD, MTSN, METHA, MET, DE, OCPI, PRSF, SFA, SSTI, TWAV, TSTN, SAWS, SANM, CAMP, NETE, DD, OLN, NOK, ERICY, TXN, BEAS, TLAB, CHKP, ALTR, EBAY, KLAC, NVLS, AMAT, PWER, RNWK, JNIC, ABK, ACF, AES, BARZ, REI, WMB, NRG, ORN, DUK, CD, CMCSK, CVC, DVN, DYN, ESV, EVG, FBF, HRC, IDTI, KRB, LEH, MND, NBR, NDE, NE, OCA, OSCA, RDC, RHB, SEI, TYC, UTI, WW, XOM

2) No red single stick for largest volume day in three months. Been one of my negative indicators.

Fail: BRCD, ORCL, INTC, CREE, SUNW, IDA, EMC, SNDK, A, CY, MOT, WFII, JNPR, TQNT, TXCC, EPG, CCMP, APC, PTEN, BRZE, KOPN, CPN, EMLX, FDRY, JBL, SLR, MARY, KEM, AVN, VSH, SSTI, TSTN, SAWS, SANM, NETE, OLN, NOK, ERICY, TXN, BEAS, CHKP, ALTR, PWER, RNWK, JNIC, ABK, AES, BARZ, REI, DUK, CD, CVC, DYN, ESV, HRC, IDTI, MND, MBR, NE, OCA, RDC, TYC, WW, XOM,

Pass: DRMD, DELL, SCHL, UCL, UPS, CIEN, MNMD, NEWP, AVA, UTX, ADI, ATML, EDS, LSI, ALA, C, AHAA, CYTC, CLS, HSE, SUN, IRF, AVX, AMD, MTSN, METHA, MET, DE, OCPI, PRSF, SFA, TWAV, CAMP, DD, TLAB, EBAY, KLAC, NVLS, AMAT, ACF, WMB, NRG, ORG, CMCSK, DVN, EVG, FBF, KRB, LEH, NDE, OSCA, RHB, SEI, UTI,

3) Barchart.com Buy

Fail: DELL, SCHL, UCL, UPS, CIEN, MNMD, NEWP, AVA, UTX, ADI, ATML, EDS, LSI, ALA, C, CYTC, CLS, AHAA, SUN, IRF, AVX, METHA, MET, DE, OCPI, PRSF, SFA, TMAV, CAMP, DD, TLAB, EBAY, NVLS, AMAT, ACF, ORG, CMCSK, FBF, KRB, LEH, RHB,

Pass: DRDM, HSE, AMD, MTSN, KLAC, WMB, NRG, DVN, EVG, NDE, OSCA, SEI, UTI

4) EBITDA positive so they can fund their own expansion.

Fail: NDE,

Pass: DRMD, HSE, AMD, MTSN, KLAC, WMB, NRG, DVN, EVG, OSCA, SEI, UTI,

5) EPS estimates raised in last 90 days for annual.

Fail: KLAC, AMD, DRMD (has no info)

Pass: UTI, SEI, OSCA, EVG, DVN, NRG, WMB, MTSN, HSE,

Hmmm. UTI, SEI, OSCA, EVG, DVN, NRG, WMB, HSE are energy play. MTSN is one own before.

Will listen to the CCs and narrow down some more.

Jack

B)Caterpillar CC Notes and other
Rated a BUY with stop loss at $34.
Jim Anderson – Dir investor Relations

Linda Peters – CFO

- 5.11B for q
- 0.76 EPS for q
- 11% increase in financial products
- Engine sales down in all regions except asia
- Demand for power units remain strong
- Inventory down 125M in US
- Outside US inventories also down
- Profit increased due to increased volume
- Currency translation impacted 2 cents for the q.
- SGA was flat y2y
- NA rental fleet 64% run rate same as y2y
- Dealer rental up 9% y2y
- Seeing Cat rental stores up 45%, Added 60 stores and 295 total.
- 110 stores internationally
- NA used equipment prices strong but trending down as economy slows
- Acquired Pioneer Equipment – Foresty Equipment
- Announced a global mining division formation
- Engine business – truck engine down 17% y2y, truck build rate will drop further then level out and go up due to interest rates dropping and lower fuel cost
- Electric power business up 20% y2y, distributed generation growing faster market
- CAT elec rental grew 20%
- We expect 20% y2y growth in electric power for five years. Increased in electricity, shortfall in electri, and more desire for efficient electric.
- Petroleum demand picking up and will grow this year.
- Growth will be flat in first half and pick up later. Profit will drop 5-10%, due to global factors, unfavorable tax rate, and slowing NA sales
- SGA 11.5-12% target
- R&D 3-4%
- 32% tax rate
- 1.05B in capex for 2001
- Dealer inventory down overall. 2001 should decrease 300M worldwide
- The economic was challenging, US slowdown, instability in Asia, still made 1B in 2000
- Q&A
- USBW – Strat investments?
- A: 6 sigma initiative, e-business, supply chain management, trying to reduce long term cost structure, will see an increase in SGA due to these.
- SSB – 2001 guidance 2.70-2.85 EPS, maybe some upside due to pension and euro
- A: Currency was unfavorable in 2000 and probably unfavorable this year, pension will have no upside. Be minor if at all. Maybe about 30 cents to year number.
- 125M increase in SGA this year?
- A: probably true going from 11.1% to 11.5-12.0%. We knew we had to spend money upfront to reduce cost structure in the long run.
- CSFB – Machinery and engine profit in fourth quarter, profit doubled y2y?
- A: It doubled due to volume and cost reductions on the material purchase side. We expect NA to decline and that hurts us since NA has higher margin.
- Engine profitability was impressive considering sector collapse, are we seeing margin gains?
- A: Heavy duty trucks was half y2y, 150K units for 2000. It might drop to 125K rate and then build up to 175K at the last half. Projecting less than 150K for 2001. It will hurt us in total operating margin, but offset some by power generation and oil/gas business.
- EM – Retail sales up 2-7% in total, what won’t it increase for 2001?
- We think down in NA due to slowing economy, and up outside in US. Net will be up slightly.
- Interest rates declining, so should be up in NA?
- It takes 6-9 months for interest rates to play through for us. It will be late in the year before we see the effect.
- Won’t customer be affected in replacement decision this year?
- A: It takes several months. A lot of concern from contractors for economic condition in 2001. Business confidence need to improve and we haven’t seen it. Will see NA decline.
- Currency hit EPS 15 cents?
- A: Yes. Bulk of the number was currency.
- MR – capex up 200M?
- A: No adjustment for software. It goes from other assets property & plant.
- Profit down 5-10%?
- A: Yes. This is an EPS number and will repurchase share. Third year of five year plan to purchase shares. Repurchased over 10M shares in 2001
- GS – rent to rent free for 2001?
- A: Not specific forecast this, but it has been dropping. Probably flat to down for 2001.
- Rental strategy?
- A: As we evaluate the distribution strategy, we are doing the best for our customers.
- SSR – why profits down 5-10% for 2001?
- A: Tax adjustment in 2000 was 11 cents. Growth in SGA will hit it. We anticipate taking additional cost reductions. (analyst is very sarcastic). No going in more detail.
- Will your senior management listen to the CC and understand how we feel?
- A: Yes.
- GS – seeing receivable in financial?
- A: It was growth in portfolio. We see it growing at strong rate.
- Inventory was suppose to be down 300M?
- A: Yes, NA was 50M short in sales.
- LM – Bearish in area that should be bullish and vice versa, what’s up?
- A: NA is slowing. We need to see improvement in the US market regardless of fed action. Contractors must be confident before they will buy.
- Dealers in driver seats?
- A: 3.0 months of supply. Should get in down 2.6 in NA. Dealers and CAT are partners to improve lead times to reduce inventory since it is not a paying asset for the dealers.
- Investco – Said sales declining, how going to reduce inventory?
- A: Will follow economic situation. Only in NA is retail sales going down. As we move beyond 2001, the inventory will be based on 2002. Seasonally the inventory increase the first half of the year.
- Cash flow – where is software spending since?
- A: Other assets. Not sure where it is in the proxy. Other net line. Less than 100-200M this year, will increase it this year.
- Ramping spending to reduce cost over 5 years. Only 5-7% cost reduction. Isn’t there more that can be done. Seems like keeps up with inflation.
- A: It is a billion plus. Will be up more than 5-7%. We have been offseting inflation and took 100M in costs out.
- ABB – Strat investments – earning would be up if not for SG&A? Reducing headcount? DCX relationship?
- A: DCX not finalize until q2 of this year. Joint venture in medium duty fuel engines. Six sigma initiative will require 1000 people working on this. They will reduce cost and improve quality. These employment is not additive. No total reductions.
- Why will earning decline if improved mix?
- A: Downturn in NA, absence of tax adjustment and 6 sigma initiative.
- INGB – Less discounting improved margin yet pricing remain competative?
- A: We see competative pricing throughout world. Nominal price increase.
End of Q&A.

Caterpillar Inc. operates in three principal business segments: Machinery, Engines and Financial Products. The Company's products are sold primarily under the names Caterpillar, Cat, Solar, Barber-Greene, MaK, Perkins, F.G. Wilson and Olympian. The Company's machinery includes construction, mining, agricultural and forestry machinery. Caterpillar designs, manufactures and markets engines for the Caterpillar Machinery division, on-highway trucks and locomotives; marine, petroleum, construction, industrial, agricultural and other applications; electric power generation systems; and related parts. The Company provides financing to customers and dealers for the purchase and lease of Caterpillar and non-competitive related equipment, as well as some financing for Caterpillar sales to dealers

Insider: 13% · Over the last 6 months:
· 2 insider buys; 6,000 shares · Institutional: 64% (74% of float)
(1,025 institutions) · Net Inst. Buying: 10.2M shares (+4.43%)
(prior quarter to latest quarter)

52-Week Low on 29-Sep-2000 $29.00
Recent Price $42.68
52-Week High on 4-Jan-2001 $49.625
Market Capitalization $14.7B
Shares Outstanding 343.8M
Float 299.1M
Price/Book (mrq) 2.62
Price/Earnings (ttm) 14.14
Price/Sales (ttm) 0.74
Annual Dividend (indicated) $1.36
Dividend Yield 3.19%
EBITDA (ttm) $2.42B
Income available to common (ttm) $1.05B
Debt/Equity (mrq) 2.69
Total Cash (mrq) $334.0M
Short Interest As of 8-Feb-2001 Shares Short 3.54M Percent of Float 1.2% Shares Short
(Prior Month) 5.24M

CAT has made its numbers for at least five straight quarters.

20-Feb-01 Caterpillar (CAT) 43.30 - 0.82: Bear Stearns downgrades to ATTRACTIVE from BUY. Analyst cuts EPS estimates to $2.90 this year from $3.00 and introduces a 2002 estimate of $3.70, or 30 cents lower than originally intended. GE (GE) announced last Friday that it intended to aggressively target CAT's Solar division dominance of the <10 MW oil and gas engine market through a series of new product introductions slated for this year and next. Last week's announced truck engine alliance between PACCAR (PCAR) and Cummins (CUM) could also pressure CAT in an important market where it has been taking sizeable share in recent years.

18-Jan-01 09:34 ET Caterpillar (CAT) 45: Issue indicated to open between $39-$41 after warning of flat 2001 revenues.

22-Nov-00 08:11 ET Caterpillar (CAT) 38 1/4: Enters 50/50 global alliance with DaimlerChrysler AG (DCX) to develop medium-duty engines, fuel systems and other powertrain components for third-party customers. CAT expects deal to be immediately accretive and to appreciably increase company's profit per share over the next several years.

Note: MOT uses Six sigma and some chemical plants I been in. Not sure I buy it.

Summary

Looks tempting but still up 30% since Oct. lows. An interesting way to play the energy sector. Also inventory reduction is a change from listening to too many CC in tech. I’ve been in the Montgomery plant. The Dekalb plant seems to sit on inventory. The strategy of targeting the rental one is intriguing since there are several rental houses making a fortune. CAT would be the first big player to compete ala Walmart and the local retail store. Will sleep on it. The Bear Stearn dip is really an opportunity to buy and threats often do not materialize as planned. Value chains have to be formed and CAT has them.

Jack

B) DRMD DD and CC
Rated a BUY
PR stuff
CINCINNATI, Feb. 28 /PRNewswire/ -- Duramed Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: DRMD - news) announced today its results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2000. For the fourth quarter 2000, net sales were $23.8 million as compared to $15.9 million in the fourth quarter 1999. Net income for the period was $1.5 million, or 6 cents per share, compared to a net loss of $12.3 million, or 53 cents per share for the same period last year. For the full year 2000, net sales were $83.5 million, compared to $50.2 million for 1999, a 66 percent increase. Net income for the year 2000 was $164,000, or 1 cent per share, as compared to a net loss of $51.3 million, or $2.36 per share, for 1999.
E. Thomas Arington, Duramed Chairman and Chief Executive Officer said, ``The fourth quarter 2000 completed a solid year of progress for Duramed and marked the third consecutive quarter of sales and profit increases. The improvement throughout 2000 was led by solid oral dose hormone products and complemented by increased sales of other high-margin multi-source products.
``We are especially encouraged with the growing franchise that Cenestin® (synthetic conjugated estrogens, A) Tablets represent. From October 2000 through January 2001, total monthly new prescriptions were 20,000, 21,000, 26,000 and 33,000, respectively, representing growth of 65 percent. Based on 20,887 total prescriptions filled for the week ended February 16, 2001, Cenestin revenues are annualizing at approximately $22.4 million.
``We believe that the company is well-positioned for continued growth, led by currently-marketed hormone products and those that are expected to be approved in 2001 and beyond. The Cenestin family of products represents our most significant long-term growth opportunity and will require significant time and investment spending; in 2001, we intend to increase our research and development spending in order to build these products and concurrently intend to look at partnership opportunities for them.
``Turning to our ANDA (Abbreviated New Drug Application) pipeline, we now have five products filed and plan to file eight more products in 2001. We are pleased to report that we have received notification from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) that we have first-to-file status on two hormone product applications. As evidenced by the success of our Apri(TM) (desogestrel and ethinyl estradiol) Tablets, being first to file is important in establishing market leadership.''
Fourth Quarter Results
Fourth quarter 2000 revenue of $23.8 million was split evenly between hormone products and non-hormone products. Hormone product sales for the fourth quarter of 2000 were $11.9 million, as compared to $8.4 million in the fourth quarter 1999 and $12.4 million in the third quarter 2000. The third quarter 2000 amount includes $2.0 million to recognize the final deferred revenue from the original Cenestin pipeline fill. Commencing with the fourth quarter 2000, Cenestin revenues are based on actual shipments. Cenestin shipments were $4.0 million in the fourth quarter, as compared to $2.2 million in the third quarter 2000.
For the quarter, gross profits totaled $10.2 million, representing 43 percent of net sales, an improvement of 93 percent, or $4.9 million, over fourth quarter 1999. In addition to the increase in gross profit, income for the quarter was positively impacted by the agreement reached with Solvay Pharmaceuticals whereby, effective January 1, 2000, Solvay Pharmaceuticals assumed responsibility for the Cenestin physicians' office promotion in exchange for a share of the Cenestin profits. As a result of the agreement, Duramed's brand marketing expenses in fourth quarter 2000 (which represent Solvay Pharmaceuticals' share of the Cenestin profits) were $2.7 million as compared to fourth quarter 1999 when Duramed incurred an expense of $10.2 million for the promotion of Cenestin.
Product development expenses for fourth quarter 2000 were $1.0 million, $700,000 less than fourth quarter 1999 due to the timing of biostudies and the savings realized by the consolidation of product development activities into the company's Cincinnati facility.
General and administrative expenses were $2.9 million, approximately $1.0 million less than fourth quarter 1999 due to 1999 expenses for Y2K compliance and a non-cash charge for stock options issued to non-employees.
Full Year Results
Revenue for the twelve months ended December 31, 2000, was $83.5 million with the increase over 1999 ($33 million, or 66 percent) being due primarily to Cenestin and Apri. The year 2000 marked the first full-year contribution for each of these products (as Cenestin was launched in May 1999 and Apri was launched in October 1999).
Gross profit for 2000 was $35.1 million, or 42 percent of net sales. This compares with $10.5 million in gross profit for 1999. This improvement was due primarily to increased sales of Cenestin, Apri, and other high-margin multi-source products. For the year 2000, brand marketing expenses were $10 million compared to $21 million in 1999 as a result of the aforementioned agreement with Solvay Pharmaceuticals.
Product development expenses in 2000 were $3.8 million, $3.4 million less than 1999 due to a reduction in biostudy expenses, the termination of the Tamoxifen project, and the savings realized by consolidating the company's product development activities in Cincinnati.
For the year, interest expense was $5.3 million, representing an increase of $1.7 million over 1999 interest expense of $3.6 million. This increase was due primarily to increased debt resulting from the refinancing of the company's Cincinnati manufacturing facility ($12 million of new debt) and increased borrowing on the company's revolving line of credit.
Duramed's working capital improved substantially from $2.6 million at the end of 1999 to $24.8 million at the end of 2000. As of December 31, 2000, shareholders' equity was $6.2 million compared to a deficit of $2.3 million as of December 31, 1999. Long-term debt has increased from $31.6 million as of year end 1999 to $40.7 million as of year end 2000 due primarily to the refinancing of the company's Cincinnati manufacturing facility.
Mandatory Redeemable Convertible Preferred Stock outstanding as of December 31, 1999, was converted into 1.3 million shares of the company's common stock. Also during 2000, the company issued $10 million of Series G convertible preferred stock, which is convertible into common stock at $5.06 per share.
Common shares outstanding at December 31, 2000, increased to 26.4 million from 24.8 million at December 31, 1999, due primarily to the conversion of the preferred stock.
Pipeline
Of the five products awaiting approval at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), two represent ANDAs for which Duramed was first to file. In 2000, the combined brand product sales for these two products was approximately $250 million.
The company's filing on Mircette(TM)(1), one of its first-to-file products, is currently under litigation. The Mircette patent is held by Biotechnology General Corp., which has filed suit for declaratory and injunctive relief claiming Duramed's product infringes its patent. Duramed is vigorously defending this lawsuit, claiming that the patent at issue is invalid and not infringed. The Waxman-Hatch Act provides that Duramed will be awarded a 180-day period of generic marketing exclusivity should it prevail in the lawsuit.
In 2001, the company expects to file five additional ANDAs for hormones, including a progestin, an estrogen, and three oral contraceptives. Duramed also anticipates filing three non-hormone ANDAs.
Further, Duramed has four products, in various stages of development, that will likely be filed as New Drug Applications (NDAs). These products, including the combination of Cenestin with a natural progesterone, if approved, will expand the Cenestin brand franchise. Evaluation of the potential for patenting the technology used to develop these extensions of the Cenestin franchise is also in-process.
Completed Cenestin Phase IV Studies
The company remains committed to educating the scientific and lay communities about the advantages of the Cenestin product. Preclinical studies of Cenestin's ability to protect neurons from toxic agents believed to play a role in the development of Alzheimer's disease have been completed very recently. Results of these studies in neuroprotection and implications for memory have been positive, and Duramed is continuing work with researchers to gain more information in this area. Studies have also recently been completed showing Cenestin's positive impact on increasing bone strength and resistance to fracture in an animal model. In human trials, Cenestin has been shown to reduce bone turnover, favorably affecting markers of bone resorption and formulation. Additionally, Cenestin has been shown to have a beneficial improvement on lipid parameters, an important factor in the reduction of cardiovascular risk. Other phase IV studies will continue as part of Duramed's efforts to display all of Cenestin's expected beneficial attributes.
2001 Outlook
For the year 2001, Duramed expects net sales to be in the range of $110 million to $130 million. The company also anticipates net income before taxes to range between $7 million and $9 million. Hormone sales are expected to account for approximately 65 percent of the company's revenue stream.
Some of the factors that may positively affect these ranges include receiving approvals on key products earlier than anticipated; capturing greater-than-anticipated market share with current products; faster-than- projected Cenestin growth; and expanding the current product line through partnership(s). Some factors that could negatively affect these ranges include significant price erosion; changes in market share; new generic competition that has not been anticipated; and/or if the company should decide to invest more heavily in its R&D pipeline.
The company will continue to leverage its formulation and production capabilities to pursue opportunities for both branded and multi-source products in the women's healthcare market, as this field offers significant profit potentials. Duramed's top priority will be to focus on solid oral dose hormone products developed in-house. The company also plans to enter into strategic partnerships, where possible, so as to expand its product development capabilities.
Such partnering may occur in order to fund clinical studies that require large financial commitments. Other R&D projects will be funded internally, and Duramed's R&D spending in 2001 is projected to be approximately $10 million as compared to $3.8 million spent in 2000.
Additional Cenestin Phase IV Studies
As evidenced above, the company has initiated a comprehensive phase IV research program to investigate the potential multiple benefits of Cenestin. Studies highlighting the benefits of the product in the central nervous system, in bone metabolism and strength, and in the cardiovascular system are critical components of this research program. These types of projects are expected to commence in 2001.
Further, Duramed has shown that the patented formulation of Cenestin and its unique state-of-the art manufacturing process result in a product that provides consistent, predictable disintegration and dissolution in an in-vitro model. Blood levels that result from Cenestin treatment have also been shown to have favorable low variation. To ascertain the clinical significance of these observations, Duramed is supporting a major independent investigation to evaluate the actual experiences of postmenopausal women who have been treated with Cenestin and other estrogen replacement therapy (ERT) products.

CC Notes
Lisa Carlson Wilson – IR Insight Communications
Thomas Arington CEO
- Will be at SSB on March 9
- BOA March 12
- USBW late May
- Returned to profitability
- Entered into partnerships
- Strongly believe future is strong
- Tim Holt CFO
- Net 1.5M or 0.06EPS
- Solvay assumed Cenistin
- 23.8M in rev
- 4M in Cenestin sales – solely from actual shipments
- 11.9M non hormone sales due to seasonal cough cold products
- 43% GM
- Op inc 3M vs loss y2y
- Marketing 2.4M vs. 10M y2y, now Solvay markets in exchange for profits
- 1.1M in selling expenses
- GA was 2.9M or less than y2y
- 1.2M in interest expense
- 4.7M in acct rec
- 164K in net profit 0.01EPS
- 10M in marketing expenses for 2000
- 7M payment to Shine Pharmacuetical to settle lawsuit
- Tom
- Financial position improved due to Solvay and Focus on hormones, and marketing of higher margin products
- Cenestin growing fast 20K, 21K, 26K, 33K, per month since Oct2000-Jan2001. 22M in annually rev projected
- Patent protection until 2015
- Beating three other products launched at similar time
- Phase IV study will include several like cerebral blood flow.
- Focusing on women bleeding a reason why women discontinue at high doses
- 10M in R&D for 2001
- 4 applications in top FDA for hormonal products
- Will file 5 more hormonal products appl this year
- Excepts 110-130M in rev for 2001
- Net inc 9M for 2001
- 65% in hormonal rev
- q&a
- ML – nice report. High short interest. Why someone shorting it? 8 days to cover it. Any analyst coverage?
- Not sure why anyone shorting it. We must communicate our story to wall street. Three conferences in next few weeks. We will get attention of the market.
- BOA – Apri 8M in q for revenue Presales?
- A: Yes. 3.2% market share, 43% of new strips?
- Competition for Apri?
- A: None right now.
- Cenestin Solvay share was 2.7M for the fourth quarter?
- A: Yes.
- Tamoxicin was terminated. Any other projects?
- A: Tamoxicin was going to take too much investment in our corporate life. Working on bulk active material for some our product.
- When FDA approval?
- A: Optimistic on approvals and responded to all their questions. One product 100M and other is 150M if it comes.
- Cenestin studies?
- A: Dr. Ray Cline heads medical group. Feels Cenestin will impact on bone strength as estogen helps osteoporosis. Working on cognition issues with univeristy. Working on early indicators for Alheimer. Castovascular may be another. Partner with Solvay on this. Maybe 10 studies this year.
- Cenestin uptick in sales?
- A: Our story is being received well since day 1.
- Litigation?
- Not comment on it. In discovery process. The Mersat lawsuit in Discovery too.
- Update balance sheet?
- A: Keeping close watch on it. Lowering the debt is a priority.
- KC – feedback from Drs, onlabel vs. off label?
- A: no formal study, feedback from field, patients, and physicians is very positive. Patients like the product for consistent reproducibilty for blood levels.
- Hormone replacement market?
- A: There is a huge market place that is untapped due to patient’s fear of side effects with older products. Baby boomers are different. Bottom line is how people feel, when taking the drug.
- MtVA – congrats. 2001 outlook factoring Solvay. 80/20 split?
- A: We get 80% of the net after Solvay gets their money back.
- Could Cenestin be in black this year.
- A: Optismistic but no forecast.
- Gruntal, great report, Phelapromoline (PPA) scare?
- A: A lot of product had PPA in them. Some switch over as products
- Duramed coming in to chain store now.
- A: Not sure why it is happening?
- Prometrimine vs. Pervara?
- Studies publish that progestergen used makes a difference in lipid (HDL) profile.
- Does AHP have a product?
- A: not comment on their products.
- Avista prodcut vs. Eli Lily?
- A; Nothing standing out.
- Apri in demand for HMO, penalize if use other products?
- A: Please with product so far.
Duramed Pharmaceuticals, Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets a line of prescription drug products in tablet, capsule and liquid forms to customers throughout the United States. Products sold by the Company include those of its own manufacture and those it markets under arrangements with other drug manufacturers. The Company sells its products to drug store chains, drug wholesalers, private label distributors, health maintenance organizations, hospitals, nursing homes, retiree organizations, mail order distributors, other drug manufacturers, mass merchandisers and governmental agencies.

52-Week Low on 28-Dec-2000 $2.875
Recent Price $5.875
52-Week High on 13-Mar-2000 $11.375
Market Capitalization $154.6M
Shares Outstanding 26.3M
Float 18.2M
Price/Book (mrq) 24.62
Price/Earnings N/A
Price/Sales (ttm) 1.89
EBITDA (ttm) $6.01M
Debt/Equity (mrq) 6.53
Total Cash N/A
Short Interest As of 8-Feb-2001
Shares Short 1.02M Percent of Float 5.6% Shares Short (Prior Month) 921.0K

Cardinal to sell Duramed drug

Cenestin sales force to be built
3/2/01
BY RANDY TUCKER
The Cincinnati Enquirer
Duramed Pharmaceuticals said Tuesday that it has signed a contract with Cardinal Health Inc. of suburban Columbus to sell and distribute Duramed's estrogen-replacement drug, Cenestin.
News of the three-year contract came less than a week after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Cenestin for the treatment of menopause symptoms, driving Pleasant Ridge-based Dura_med's share price up as much as 59 percent.
Under terms of the new agreement, Cardinal Marketforce — a subsidiary of Cardinal Health — will recruit and train a sales force to market Duramed's product directly to doctors and pharmacists during what's known in the industry as “detail” visits.
Cardinal, which distributes pharmaceuticals to hospitals and drug stores, is a Fortune 200 company whose Marketforce management team has built a number of contract sales forces in the past, ranging in size from 25 to 400 people, the company said.
“The selection of Cardinal ... as our marketing and distribution partner will accelerate the rate at which women and their physicians learn about this important new treatment option,” said E. Thomas Arington, Duramed chairman and chief executive.
The contract calls for Dura_med to pay Cardinal a flat-rate, monthly fee for its services, unlike many sales and distribution agreements that give the distributor a percentage of total sales.
Jeff Kern, director or brand marketing for Duramed, said the deal with Cardinal will benefit the company in the long run.
“We believe we're going to be able to retain more income by having a flat-rate deal than we would by giving somebody a percentage of total sales,” Mr. Kern said.
Duramed is projecting sales for Cenestin — the first branded product for which the company has received FDA approval — to reach $100 million within its first 15 to 18 months on the market.
Mr. Kern said Duramed has several other products in the pipeline that the company plans to market under its new contract with Cardinal.
“For us, what Cardinal is doing is building a sales force and management team that will be dedicated to Dura_med,” Mr. Kern said. “Initially it will focus on Cenestin, but we'll also be able to sell other products with that sales force, leveraging the investment of that monthly fee over many products.”
http://enquirer.com/editions/1999/03/31/fin_cardinal_to_sell.html

Duramed thrives on new drugs

Focuses on women's health
2/3/2001
By Tim Bonfield
The Cincinnati Enquirer
The whirring tablet-press at the Duramed Pharmaceuticals plant in Pleasant Ridge spins so fast it can pump out more than 160,000 pills an hour. With growing sales of the hormone replacement drug Cenestin, and other products in the pipeline, Duramed executives predict their tablet press will be getting a lot busier in 2001.
After several years of struggle, executives at Duramed Pharmaceuticals say 2001 could be a break- through year. Even as the economy appears to be slowing on many fronts, Duramed plans to hire more workers and buy more equipment, including installing a high-tech automated packaging system by August.
“We didn't build all this capacity just to make Cenestin,” said E. Thomas Arington, Duramed's chairman and chief executive. “We already have five hormone products on the market. We have four we hope will be approved this year and 19 more in development.”
After several years of fits and starts, Duramed appears closer than ever to realizing its goal of becoming a force in women's health products, from birth control pills to various hormone replacement therapies.
The company told investors last month that it could post a small profit for 2000.
Three straight profitable quarters have reversed a string of losses that have punished its stock.
Cenestin sales remain far short of its goal of $100 million a year, but are picking up. Total weekly prescriptions were up 40 percent in December compared to three months before. New weekly prescriptions were up 55 percent in the same period, the company reports.
In 1999, Cenestin posted about $3.8 million in sales compared to more than $1 billion for competitor Premarin. In 2000, Cenestin sales tripled through the first nine months, but the company now reports Cenestin sales along with its Apri birth control pill and three other hormone products.
As a group, Duramed's five hormone products grew from $2.2 million in sales through nine months of 1999 to $28.7 million through nine months of 2000, the most recent figures available.
New directions
Improving sales reflect a company that has changed directions in several ways since forming 19 years ago.
Duramed was incorporated in 1982. It started production in Long Island, N.Y., in 1983, primarily making generic cough, cold and pain relief products.
In addition to Cenestin, the company produces more than 30 products including birth control pills, cancer drugs, blood pressure pills, pain relievers and a variety of cough and cold remedies.
Duramed moved to Cincinnati in 1985 and soon set its sights on the growing market for women's health products, especially hormone replacement drugs.
The company retooled in 1995 as it waged a prolonged effort to win FDA approval for Cenestin. The drug was originally envisioned as a generic equivalent to Premarin, the market leader. However, fierce opposition from Wyeth-Ayerst, maker of Premarin, blocked approval of the generic drug.
Duramed responded by seeking new-product approval for Cenestin, which was granted in March 1999. All the while, Duramed has been quietly building its production capacity.
What's inside
Inside a low building partly visible from the Norwood Lateral, production rooms are separated by air locks while temperature and humidity are carefully controlled.
Drug making at Duramed starts with mechanical arms lifting kegs of ingredients into a two-story-tall mixing machine. Products move on to a second blending room, then to a tablet press, a pill-coating machine and a packaging line.
A surprising aspect of pharmaceutical production is the smallness of the process.
A container of ingredients about the size of a beer keg can produce 800,000 to 4 million pills. In the tablet press room, a machine that can spit out 160,000 pills an hour isn't much bigger around than a home refrigerator.
At many points in the process, computer controls have replaced human operators, resulting in more precisely made medication and less risk of contamination, said Allen Marko, vice president of production.
To further minimize contamination from human contact, workers in “hot zones” of exposed materials wear full environmental suits. In other areas, workers don't wear clean suits but use glove boxes to run tests and make adjustments to avoid touching ingredients.
“We're a small company. But some of the top companies in the pharmaceutical business don't have this kind of technology,” Mr. Marko said.
The environmental controls are so strict that it required about three months of planning to set up a tour Jan. 26 for about 50 doctors, company staff and journalists, Mr. Marko said. Plant managers worked the production schedule so that the tour would coincide with a maintenance and cleaning day.
Duramed has room to expand production within its building and has land that could allow a two-story, 160,000-square-foot expansion that could triple production capability.
No date on building such an expansion has been set, but the company is gearing up for production increases.
Come August, Duramed plans to install a new packaging line that will transform an operation that takes 20 people to complete about 15 packages a minute into one that requires eight people to produce 140 packages a minute. Along the way, the updated equipment will allow better tracking of lot numbers, bar codes and product labels.
The increased automation means that some people likely will be moved from packaging to other parts of the plant. But the overall increase in production will require hiring more people, Mr. Arington said.
Seeing results
Only now are the results of investing millions into all that new equipment starting to show, Mr. Arington said.
Since 1985, Duramed has grown from employing about 200 people making products that generated $20 million a year in revenue to employing about 375 people making products producing closer to $80 million a year.
In September, Duramed continued its bitter battle with Wyeth-Ayerst by filing an antitrust lawsuit in U.S. District Court in Cincinnati. Duramed accuses Wyeth-Ayerst of illegally coercing managed health-care organizations to enter into exclusive contracts for Premarin. A Wyeth-Ayerst spokesman declined to discuss the allegation, saying the company does not comment on pending litigation.
But Mr. Arington said the company's main focus is building its women's health business.
“You can't fully get past your history, but we don't have people here looking back and talking about multimillion-dollar losses,” Mr. Arington said. “We believe we can now move ahead and become a major player in the woman's health care business.”
http://enquirer.com/editions/2001/02/03/fin_duramed_thrives_on.html

Summary:
Huge debt, but a product that is growing. I like the story and the conference may push the price up some. Also, my pharmacist says female hormone drugs are moving the best after amoxicillin and equivalents. I don’t have a biotech and this looks strong.

Jack

B)SYMC analyst meeting and other
PR Stuff

CUPERTINO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 17, 2001--Symantec Corp. (Nasdaq:SYMC - news), a world leader in Internet security technology, today announced the ninth consecutive quarter of record revenues and earnings. Strong sales in both the enterprise and the consumer markets contributed to net revenue of $219.3 million for the third fiscal quarter 2001, ended Dec. 29, 2000. The reported results include operating results from AXENT Technologies since the acquisition date of Dec. 18, 2000. Net revenue increased 18 percent over the same quarter a year ago. Individually, Symantec posted revenues of $211.4 million for the quarter and AXENT contributed $7.9 million of the quarter's revenue.
Earnings per share before all acquisition related amortization and one-time charges for the third quarter was $0.78, an increase of 39 percent from the December 1999 earnings per share of $0.56. Net income before acquisition related amortization and one-time charges for the third quarter was $51.4 million, 45 percent higher than the December quarter last year of $35.4 million. All figures exclude the results of operations from the company's divestiture of the Visual Cafe and ACT! product lines.
``We are pleased with the strong growth in our enterprise business,'' said John W. Thompson, Symantec chairman, president and CEO. ``We are confident that Internet security will be one of the top priorities for consumers and enterprises alike in the coming year. With the addition of AXENT, Symantec offers a broad line of industry-leading solutions and services that protect customers from all types of security threats.''
Revenues from Symantec's enterprise security products accounted for 52 percent of total revenues in the December quarter, up from 45 percent last quarter. Enterprise revenues grew 30 percent from the same quarter last year. AXENT revenues contributed 2 points to the mix this quarter.
Worldwide consumer business accounted for 48 percent of revenues in the December quarter. Retail growth was 7 percent compared to a year ago.
International revenues represented 46 percent of total revenue in the December quarter. Overall, the European region grew 19 percent, the Japanese region grew 29 percent and the Asia Pacific region grew 36 percent compared to the December quarter a year ago.
Quarterly Highlights
„h Symantec completed the acquisition of AXENT Technologies, Inc. in a stock-for-stock exchange on Dec. 18, 2000.
„h Symantec's carrier-grade solutions are gaining attention in the enterprise market. Sprint has chosen Symantec's desktop security products to protect the company's residential broadband customers. EarthLink offers a co-branded Symantec Security Check site for both PC and Macintosh users in addition to providing Symantec's firewall solutions to its DSL customers. I-Gear and Mail-Gear also now support Cobalt's line of servers. In addition, Symantec is integrating its CarrierScan Server with Oracle's Internet File System.
„h Flagship accounts internationally are choosing Symantec's solutions over the competition. Symantec products are now protecting the Australian Tax Office, China Southern Airlines Company, Daimler Chrysler and Scandinavian Airlines.
„h Symantec launched several new or updated versions of its consumer software for Apple Macintosh users including Norton AntiVirus 7.0, Norton Personal Firewall 1.0, Norton Utilities 6.0, Norton SystemWorks 6.0 and Norton Internet Security 1.0.
„h Symantec also launched the following enterprise solutions: Norton AntiVirus Corporate Edition 7.5 and CarrierScan Server 2.0.
„h According to the latest information from PC Data, seven of the top 20 best selling business software comes from Symantec including Symantec's Norton AntiVirus 2001 which ranked number one.
„h Symantec products continue to receive awards and recognition. Symantec's Norton AntiVirus received its 12th 100% Award from Virus Bulletin. Symantec's Norton AntiVirus Corporate Edition received Information Security's West Coast Labs Check Mark Award. Symantec's Norton Ghost received Network World's Blue Ribbon Award recognizing the best product in its class. Spanish publication ``PC Actual'' named Symantec's Norton SystemWorks 2001 Product of the Year in its Utilities category. Symantec's Norton Internet Security 2001 was named Product of the Year in its Internet Software category.
Analyst Meeting Notes
John Thompson CEO
Greg Myers CFO
- security software getting much more attention as we added two new analysts since last q
- John
- We have been working to build new SYMC since trying to build predictable results
- 1982 founded, 1989 public
- 1990 bought the Peter Norton group
- CEO been there 2 yrs
- 1999 acquired Dellrina, not popular and cause board for transition to focus on enterprise solutions
- Acquired IBM enterprise antivirus software in 1998
- Sharpened focus on individuals and enterprise solutions
- Dec 2000 acquire Axent, takes advantage of internet security space
- 3779 employees in 37 countries, up 50% in 12 months
- 100M users of our products
- Must embrace the new employees
- 20% in development
- 80% of our senior leaders are new to their job.
- Had 65% of the leaders meet last week
- Three development units; consumer products ¡V security and small LAN users, enterprise solution division ¡V corporate desktops, service provider solution division ¡V embed security into infrastructure.
- Focus on expanding market opportunity, from PC to being out their as a software opportunity. 27B market in 2004.
- It is important that customers trust SYMC.
- Want to be proactive in viruses not reactive.
- Gary Warren, Gail Hamilton, Dana Seibert, Steve Cullen, will speak.
- Gary ¡V service provider VP
- Security is more than a firewall, 30K of hacker orientated sites on net. Firewall need to be installed at every point in the network.
- 74% of security breaches originated in the corporation
- Prior 1990, less than 10 viruses
- Now about 50K viruses
- Now seeing PDA viruses
- Viruses never go away. We fix four viruses/min on Yahoo
- 50K files submitted to SYMC last month, 90% had viruses
- 1999 saw Yahoo and other get denial of services
- Feel that everyone will be their own server ala Napster
- Feel in 2004, we could see 1M network attacks, 2M file submission to our lab, over 500K viruses, 250M internet sites
- See a barrier to entry as growth is going on rapidly
- Gigabit ethernet is becoming a standard.
- Gail Hamilton ¡V Enterprise Solution VP
- Enterprise was 52% of SYMC rev. Target 30% y2y rev growth
- A single attack could cost millions of dollars
- Seeing competition like Network Associates stumble
- Security hottest area in IT software spending
- Network devices is number issue for IT managers, security is number two
- When an attack occurs, customer want technical advice, and help cleaning up the mess.
- ESM from SYMC has 68% market share
- Beat 19 competitors in a virus test at he University of Hamburg
- MOT, C, DCX, BOA, MBL, CAT,
- Been taking virus business from Network Associates like DCX, JPM, BMW,
- CHKP has 12 reported security issues vs, Raptor had none in firewall security
- Jun quarter should have intruder alert software out and compete with ISSX
- IBM has Big Blue and SYMC has Force in Yellow
- Dana
- Won embeded security at YHOO, INKT, ORCL, T
Too long to listen further

52-Week Low on 27-Dec-2000 $27.375
Recent Price $48.00
52-Week High on 9-Mar-2000 $81.625
Market Capitalization $3.63B
Shares Outstanding 75.6M
Float 67.3M
Price/Book (mrq) 2.24
Price/Earnings (ttm) 25.11
Price/Sales (ttm) 3.92
EBITDA (ttm) $176.4M
Debt/Equity (mrq) 0
Total Cash (mrq) $715.9M

Summary
I need to hear the CC, but I like what I see so far.

Jack

TIBX mid q CC 3/7/01
- As many customer reported, we too saw customers delay purchase
- 80-84M double q1 2000 result
- 75% license rev at 60M up 100% y2y
- operating results break even
- we did not miss target due to competive pressure but market pressure
- current economy putting pressure on companies
- leader in our space and provide solution that improve their business
- Q&A
- GS – good position to weather storm?
- A: Our customers can weather storm, INTC, A, ENE, DT, customer have sig assets and need to keep spending, we are looking 80M quarter and stronger than competitors, we have global presence and full solution. 500M+ in the bank and can weather this and break even, We saw a variety of deals pushed out. Customers saying we want to wait until last minute to spend. Across the bord cut in energy and others.
- Blance sheet metrics?
- A: 100M collected so DSO is mid 80’s, reduced it nmicely during quarter, cash 550M, deferred rev will be typical
- MS – B2B vs. back office?
- A: B2b getting delayed, pushing out until absolutley necessary
- TW – Pipeline?
- A: Wait until March 22 for full result. The quality of the pipeline is good, been delayed. Repeat licenses from existing customer base.
- Seasonality?
- A: It did enter into it.
- Deals cancelled?
- A: Not seeing that, Just waiting until absolutely necessary.
- Competitive landscape?
- A: Not change materially, See Beyond, Accenture, Webmethods, Vitria, IBM,
- Internationally?
- A: Seeing some delays in Europe, not as much in US, Asia is not much business.
- TW – Vertical changes?
- A: more detail onMarch 22. We tried to develop new vertical, energy was strong now seeing delays.
- Less comprehensive deal?
- A: Customers want to buy from one company vs. eight companies and saying need to buy bare minimum now.
- JL – deal size?
- A: Median deal size may have gone up a little. Fewer large deals.
- Portal business?
- A: did very well, many millions we did that we had not done before. Think our CSCO-YHOO will dominate corporate desktops solution
- How many missed deals?
- A: Enough to miss our quarter. Lost quite a few in the multi-million category.
- Where in cycle did deferral occur?
- We had won the deal and got stop through upper management approval.
- What application vendors feeling slowdown?
- A: People have these systems and they don’t integrate. Most want to integrate what they have now.
- SSB – Which area saw acceleration? Define deal?
- A: Portal, active data base were strong. Deferral were won, backlog was deal in pipeline. Deal won have procurement process. Procurement negoition saw deal delayed. We won the deal, agree to the pricing, and needed to get contract. Some cases where customer wanted changes. Some we got the technical win and CIO moves it through. Some companies procurement process is very lengthy.
- When see improvement? Which category will move first? Larry Ellison said it will happen on the CC.
- A: demand is strong, more detail March 22. People will spend on core integration area. Strong demand for portal and active database. As for B2b, waiting to see more partners in b2b space so can trade in b2b.
- INGB – flat revs?
- A; More detail guidance march 22.
- Breaking even, op interest,
- A: Operating excludes normal charges, about half revs from previous customers.
- GKM – b2b weak? EAI strong run counters to others like BEAS?
- A: We had strong q4, BEAS is application development platform and people continue to develop application. People trying postpone investment until they ready to be cripple unless they have it. Other have yet to report Feb #s
- Market share?
- A: we are taking market share across the board.
- ED – b2b pushout for time frame to restart?
- A: Hard to put metric, fell 3-6 months. Need enough people out there to do b2b to do transactions.
- 2002 budgets reduce?
- A: budget not going up as fast. Companies trying to make existing networks work.
Uneven call. I like TIBX in 1999 but scalped it and missed the huge run. 550M in cash is the main point. At $10 a share the bottom should hold for a couple weeks.

Jack

What's hot in largecaps (or things you never bought)
Largecaps over 5B
Symbol Company $Price Perf.
YTD
JELCY JOHNSON ELECTRIC HOLDINGS 17.25 397.4%

AMD Advanced Micro Devices 23.30 68.7%

BMCS BMC Software, Inc. 23.50 67.9%

DBRSY De Beers Consolidated 42.63 59.3%

BBY Best Buy Company, Inc. 47.00 59.0%

TOY TOYS R US INC 26.14 56.6%

CD Cendant Corporation 14.73 53.0%

HYSNY HYSAN DEVELOPMENT LTD ADR 3.41 51.6%

SFA Scientific-Atlanta, Inc. 49.33 51.5%

SPLS Staples, Inc. 17.13 45.0%

LOW Lowe's Companies Inc. 62.47 40.4%

T AT&T Corporation 23.61 36.9%

PKX Pohang Iron & Steel Co. 21.30 36.9%

FD Federated Department Str. 47.85 36.7%

AAPL Apple Computer, Inc. 20.25 36.1%

CA Computer Associates Int'l 26.52 36.0%

DPH Delphi Automotive Systems 15.15 34.7%

DELL Dell Computer Corporation 23.38 34.0%

NSC Norfolk Southern Corp. 17.73 33.2%

CP Canadian Pacific Limited 37.96 32.9%

SASOY Sasol Ltd 8.63 32.7%

JCI Johnson Controls, Inc. 68.99 32.7%

BSX Boston Scientific Corp. 18.00 31.5%

ELUX AB Electrolux 33.63 31.2%

MSFT Microsoft Corporation 56.69 30.7%

For Midcaps 1-5B
Symbol Company $Price Perf.
YTD
SRV Service Corp. Int'l. 4.40 151.4%

RAD Rite Aid Corporation 5.56 134.1%

IFMX Informix Corporation 6.75 127.3%

ELNK EarthLink, Inc. 9.88 96.3%

SEMA Sema plc 16.19 96.2%

AOLA America Online Latin Am. 5.06 88.4%

SKX Skechers U.S.A., Inc. 28.97 86.9%

ACI Arch Coal, Inc. 25.64 81.5%

KM Kmart Corp. 9.60 80.7%

MEE Massey Energy Company 22.71 78.1%

NETA Networks Associates, Inc. 7.44 77.6%

BRS Banco Rio de la Plata S.A 14.60 77.0%

EFII Electronics For Imaging 24.19 73.5%

LRCX Lam Research Corporation 24.69 70.3%

BBI Blockbuster, Inc. 14.08 68.1%

FCX Freeport-McMoRan C & G 14.35 67.6%

JCP J.C. Penney Company, Inc. 17.75 63.2%

OI Owens-Illinois, Inc. 9.28 63.1%

EFNT Efficient Networks, Inc. 23.13 62.3%

ANF Abercrombie & Fitch Co. 32.30 61.5%

EYE VISX INC DEL 16.85 61.4%

ROIA Radio One 17.25 61.4%

DDS Dillard's Inc. 18.96 60.5%

CSKKY CSK Corporation 19.00 58.3%

ASTSF ASE TEST LTD 13.38 57.4%

Many of the dogs benefiting from the January effect will die.
Jack

W) TXU DD
Rated a Watch
Reason for DD

Seeing high Value line and S&P rating and huge dividend.

Business

TXU Corp. engages in the generation, purchase, transmission, distribution and sale of electricity; the purchase, transmission, distribution and sale of natural gas; and energy marketing, energy services, telecommunications and other businesses. TXU Corp. is a multinational energy services holding company and one of the largest energy services companies in the world with more than $22 billion in revenue and $45 billion of assets. TXU Corp. has 30,000 megawatts of power generation and sells 270 terawatt hours of electricity and 2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas annually. TXU Corp. delivers or sells energy to approximately 11 million customers primarily in the United States (US), Europe and Australia. At December 31, 2000, TXU Corp. and its subsidiaries had 16,540 full-time employees.
TXU Electric is the largest subsidiary of TXU Corp. and one of the largest electric utilities in the US. TXU Electric operates 23 generating stations, 18 of them fueled by gas and oil, 4 by lignite, and 1 by nuclear fuel, and provides electricity service to 92 counties and 370 incorporated cities in Texas.

Competitors

Other Utilities

News

Horgan waxes energetic on energy
By Lisa Sanders, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 1:27 PM ET Mar 14, 2001
DALLAS (CBS.MW) - VJ Horgan, TXU's president of energy trading, is absolutely energetic on the subject of power.
Horgan was hired in September to head the group as TXU positions itself for Texas' deregulation of retail electricity in January 2002. She is one of two women to have a position at the top level of management in the industry. Mirant (MIR: news, msgs, alerts) CEO Marce Fuller was once president of trading and marketing operations before she took over the helm of the company. Energy trading, as defined by TXU, is the means to identify, measure, and value a portfolio of assets, which can include buying and selling of different commodities, such as electricity and natural gas. It also entails managing contracts and obligations and assessing and managing risk. TXU Electric & Gas, a subsidiary of Dallas-based (TXU: news, msgs, alerts) , is Texas' largest investor-owned utility. In an interview with CBS.MarketWatch.com, Horgan expanded on the subject of energy trading, the problems in California, and how TXU will fare in a completely deregulated environment. A law deregulating Texas wholesale electricity was signed in 1995.
Q. CBS.MW: How does energy trading work?
A. Horgan: We're but one part of an overall successful strategy built around portfolio management. Our ownership of upstream assets as well as downstream assets represented by customer relationships and an extensive ability to aggregate these customer obligations is absolutely integral to the portfolio management model...While your upstream capabilities are focused on operating assets and having a model predicated on operational excellence, our downstream assets, again the end-use markets, are very much focused on...understanding how customers buy, what they want to buy, anticipating those needs and being in a position to solve them. Trading is the guy in the middle. We are very market focused and as we look at the factors that influence current markets but also forward markets, we are the eyes on the market that help assess in a given region where we want to position ourselves along that energy value chain.
Q. CBS.MW: If California's utilities had been in a position to hedge, could the energy crisis have been avoided?
A. Horgan: They certainly could have mitigated a lot more of the risk. When you can't hedge and you're entirely at the whim of market movements, and you have an obligation to serve...let's look at the structural implications of what they're also faced with. Those that had an obligation to serve the end-use customer load were forced to divest of their upstream assets. Back to the portfolio management model, you're being forced to operate with only half the equation. In addition, if you're long customers and you have an obligation to serve them, you're effectively short the market, and you can't do anything to mitigate that risk. Again, when you're forced or you choose to operate with only half of the portfolio management dimension, the propensity for bad things happening is much greater.
Q. CBS.MW: Do you sell power into California, and if not, why not?
A. Horgan: Currently we do not. We have some fairly extensive gas operations in California.
Q. CBS.MW: Did you foresee a problem in California?
A. Horgan: Yes with regard to California in terms of the leverage to the commodity.
Q. CBS.MW: What markets are you interested in?
A. Horgan: When we look outside of Texas to the markets that will provide the greatest opportunity for growth, we have undertaken an extensive regional assessment study that looks at fundamentals like supply in the region - what resources exist both from a generation perspective as well as fuel resources - load growth, transmission constraints, transportation constraints, environmental legislation or constraints, market and regulatory structure, and we assess from the perspective given the competencies we have in both operating upstream assets, aggregating customers in the downstream markets and our ability to develop and deliver our wholesale capabilities in the energy trading company. We assess what is the best market entry strategy in the regions we feel that have the dynamics that will enable us to not just establish what might be an ownership position in a particular asset or an aggregation of customers but over the long haul would enable us to establish the balance perspective across both upstream and downstream assets.
Q. CBS.MW: What is current status of the supply situation in the U.S.? Where there are constraints, how can they be overcome?
A. Horgan: There is no one U.S. market. When you look at the realities of how the individual sub-regions trade and how really reliability is determined in those regions, yes, there are markets that have extreme dislocations between supply and demand. The supply and demand can also be excess supply. Other markets with constraints traditionally have been in the mid-continent around the Illinois region; some into the mid Atlantic states, and some segments of New York have constraints. The Southwest, at this stage, has seen a reasonable amount of new construction in the past several years in large part because people were trying to overcome the difficulty of [locating] in California. We're probably okay in the Southwest. The solutions: you have a number of companies that have come out very strongly with a strategy of meeting that supply shortage.
Q. CBS.MW: If the vast majority of the new power plants being built in the U.S. are natural-gas fired, and natural gas has already been bid up two to three times what it was a year ago, does that suggest that once these plants come on line, prices for the electricity they generate will remain high?
A. Horgan: I think that depends on what the supply response is, how deep and how swift the supply responses are on the gas side. There are two aspects to that: how much natural gas really exists and the actual transportation capacity to get it to the market. Gas prices have been high before and generally have never been sustainable. Of course, we haven't had the level of demand as contemplated not only with the existing plants that have come on but also the ones that are in backlog. So, generally markets are responsive and if gas prices were going to be high because there was neither a swift nor a deep response from the gas supply side of the equation, then a natural response would be for people to start building coal plants.
Q. CBS.MW: Do you think it's necessary for the industry to pursue alternative energy sources like clean coal and liquefied natural gas?
A. Horgan: That's purely an economic answer. What you'll see is a technology response to the current state of price dislocation, and that gets them to how sustainable is that price. If prices are high for a year, they are certainly not going to cover the cost of some of the new technologies.
Q. CBS.MW: Your job description includes positioning TXU to participate in deregulation of the Texas electricity markets in 2002. What does that entail?
A. Horgan: The previously vertically integrated companies have to file plans for both the generation company and the retail company. There's a systems infrastructure requirement, there's the development of new processes, procedures and control around that, and maybe most importantly bringing an entire new level of skill into the organization, which will enable us to manage what will then be, effectively, an entire merchant portfolio. Trading brings to the portfolio management model a market focus, the analytical skills and capabilities to assess alternative investments, and part of the positioning anticipated there will (involve) rigorously evaluating our existing portfolio of assets, whether upstream or downstream. In transitioning and positioning the company, that means getting the appropriate skills in place to evaluate the risks, and up to and including how we want to change the composition of that portfolio as we enter the deregulated marketplace. We will be ready.
Q. CBS.MW: Do you see any of the same problems in California affecting Texas?
A. Horgan: Absolutely not. Our market structure is very different. Unlike California where demand greatly exceeded supply, we have a market that is generously supplied.
http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/y...

2/1/01 CC Notes
- 11M customers globally,
- electricity volume up 11%, top 5 in NA
- gas volume up 40%, top 10 in NA
- overhauled merchant trading division
- 0.61 EPS in q4 vw. 1.24 in 99 This had 0.52 gain from primeco sales
- 3.43 EPS in 2000 up 8%
- Sold gas metering business for 31M gain
- Merchant trading revamped. Incurred a number severance costs. 27M charge
- US Electric perform, 158M in Netincome
- Added 11K customer in North Texas
- Q&A
- Look forward in strengthening balance sheet in 2001. Paying out dividends and targeting 55% debt. Not going to repurchase share.
- Will buy stock if it drops at the lower range.

Dallas, Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- TXU Corp. said the amount of electricity its Texas utility supplied to customers reached a record for a third time this year as a heat wave spurred the use of air conditioners.
TXU Electric & Gas, which serves the Dallas-Fort Worth area, said consumption peaked between 4 p.m. and 5 p.m. yesterday at 22,056 megawatts, or enough power to light more than 22 million U.S. homes. That broke the July 20 record by 14 megawatts. Temperatures at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport reached 106 degrees Fahrenheit yesterday. It was the 38th day northern Texas has topped 100 degrees this summer and the 61st straight day without rain, the National Weather Service said. Its five-day forecast calls for more of the same.

DALLAS, March 6 /PRNewswire/ -- LayerOne, Inc., a global provider of layer one optical transport exchange facilities and services, today announced it has signed a master service agreement with TXU Communications to connect the company's extensive regional fiber network to LayerOne's optical transport exchange facilities. TXU Communications plans to take advantage of the cost- effective distribution technology within LayerOne's NEXUS Optical Distribution Exchanges(TM), and tap a ready pool of potential buyers for its wholesale bandwidth and dark fiber services. TXU Communications initially plans to deploy in LayerOne's Dallas Exchange, gaining immediate access to some of the country's largest fiber optic networks, with options to extend its network into any of LayerOne's fourteen additional facilities, including two additional Texas facilities currently under construction in Fort Worth and Houston.

Analysts and Other

We expect EPS to grow around 8% in 2001. This would follow a 7.5% rise in 2000 over 1999’s operating of $3.19. (Due to the different levels of shares outstanding, the reported EPS for the 1998 individual quarters do not add up to the full year EPS). TXU will continue to expand both its international business and its non-regulated domestic operations. It will seek growth in Europe through acquisitions, joint ventures and management service contracts. TXU intends to sell some of its generation plants in the U.K., since its energy trading operations do not require physical ownership of the plants. For the same reason, it is likely to sell or swap some of its generation plants in Texas. Having completed about $600 million of its $800 million share repurchase program, we do not see additional near-term repurchases. We expect free cash flow to be used to reduce the debt/equity ratio to 55% by end of 2001. We would continue to buy TXU stock. With a dividend yield of approximately 5.7%, and the shares trading at around 11 times our 2001 EPS estimate of $3.70, the stock remains attractive for both price appreciation and income. In 2000, after having dropped nearly 27% in the early part of the year, the shares rebounded about and finished the year up 24.6%. The stock had been hurt by the decline of power prices in the U.K and a PUCT order deferring consideration for 78% of the $1.65 billion regulatory asset securitization TXU requested. Texas legislation will allow TXU to completely recover its stranded costs and maintain existing rates until retail competition begins on January 1, 2002, at which time it will reduce its rates by 6% for a five year period. While this would reduce revenues by about $460 million, it would be more than offset by a $500 million increase from TXU’s U.S. energy operations.
Sources of power generation for TXU Electric in 1999 were: gas/oil, 34.3% (36.7% in 1998); lignite/coal, 38.5% (36.5%); nuclear, 16.4% (16.4%); and purchased power, 10.8% (10.4%).
2-22-00 S&P report

13-Feb-01 13:00 -- 14:00 ET
TXU Corp (TXU) 41.11 +0.31: Salomon Smth Brny initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM and a $45 price target; believes TXU is selling at an unwarranted discount relative to Integrated Utility group due to investor confusion over TXU's growth strategy and various regulatory uncertainties; expects company to sell non-core businesses and focus on its global Energy Merchant franchise, which is not yet profitable in the U.S.; as company does so, the shares could re-value to near-parity with group.

Numbers

Revs 4435.0M to 4486.0m to 4776.0M to 4592.0 to 5834.0M
EPS 0.72a to 0.89a to 0.67 to 1.25 to 0.61 Feb01 per briefing
EPS est for 12/01 yr is 3.68, 2002 is 3.94
52-Week Low on 31-Mar-2000 $29.188
Recent Price $39.67
52-Week High on 26-Dec-2000 $45.25
Market Capitalization $10.2B
Shares Outstanding 258.1M
Float 255.5M
Annual Dividend (indicated) $2.40
Dividend Yield 6.05%
Price/Book (mrq) 1.37
Price/Earnings (ttm) 11.57
Price/Sales (ttm) 0.48
EBITDA (ttm) $3.69B
Debt/Equity (mrq) 2.75
Total Cash (mrq) $1.04B
As of 8-Feb-2001 Shares Short 4.68M Percent of Float 1.8%

Company cut dividend in 1995 and 1994.

Block trades of note
3/16/2001 9:32:00 AM $39.250, 298,500 shares, $11,716,125 sell
2001-03-15 16:01 $39.880, 254,300 shares, $10,141,484 between spread
2001-03-14 16:02 $39.100, 184,600 shares, $7,217,860 between spread
2001-03-14 12:52 $39.100, 106,000 shares, $4,144,600 buy
2001-03-14 10:12 $39.500, 151,400 shares, $5,980,300 sell
2001-03-06 15:30 $41.500 1,700,000shares, $70,550,002 between spread, monster trade

Internet Posts of Note

none

Insiders

Nothing of note

Chart

Falling with the Dow Utilities. May retest $36 level.

Links

www.txu.com

Summary

Dividend is attractive. I think EPG and DUK are better managed companies have better growth, but TXU is cheap and has that high dividend. I remember my folks buying four utilities in the bear market of the 1970s and getting a dividend check each month. TXU entering the merchant energy business. Tough to compete with EPG and ENE in the area.

Jack

Hi Dealie. Good alternative site.
Jack