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You may have a point with your semantics, but you could probably delete the adjective "early" with the same effect. OTOH, in a world where lawyers frequently run the settlement clock down to the final second, wouldn't any time before the morning of trial be considered "early?"
Or maybe CSM indicated they want to settle and are pushing everything out to avoid discovery. Otherwise, why would Peregrine let them off the hook? All imo.
Not much time left for the calendar year, unless of course there is a grand conspiracy to scoop up all the shares from tax selling with late breaking news. ;) Precisely which year SK was referring would be interesting point for clarification during the CC. All imo.
CP - Good point on the many tangibles that can be readily quantified. There is also additional phase III patient enrollment good for at least $20MM. If there is any hint of sabotage or deliberate tampering, it's hard to imagine CSM wanting to engage in discovery, so maybe there will be an early settlement. All imo.
alternatepatel- it's way out of my depth to try to predict. But we can probably expect CSM to delay as long as possible.
No argument that there are too many attorneys out there who encourage witnesses to "adjust" testimony to conform to their case. But in this particular instance the figures cited appear to be reasonable on their face. That clinical trial cost and delays are very expensive seems a rather uncontroversial proposition. Also, there is nothing in the record that would suggest that the lawyers for Peregrine are anything but straight shooters. All imo.
CP - It certainly seems that there is sizable sum in play. Cheynew posted the trial timetable earlier today. If CSM wants to avoid discovery through settlement, it looks like it would be very early 2015. Otherwise, the cut off for a settlement conference is 3/16/2015. Considering the other hot topics of discussion lately, it looks like there may be quite a few things converging in 1Q 2015!
The lawsuit against CSM also provides another interesting wrinkle in this drama. In CSM's Motion For Summary Judgement, the court found that regardless of any Limitation of Damages Clauses in the CSM Master Services Agreement, CSM is still open to unlimited liability for active negligence, negligent misrepresentation, and constructive fraud. In the supporting court filings, Peregrine detailed some costs surrounding this debacle including a botched phase II study ($12MM +), additional patient enrollment in phase III ($20MM+), and at least six months loss of time to market. Further, had the original phase II results been confirmed it "likely would have shaved at least 3 to 4 years from the program and resulted in early commercial sales."
A potential damage award would appear to be in the tens of millions. And based upon the nature of the claims against CSM, one ventures that they would want to settle rather than be subject to discovery and examination of the offending actors under oath. Just a thought, but a sudden influx of tens of millions in cash on top of PPHMs existing cash position vs. the current SP/Market Cap would seem to invite a takeover attempt.
All imo.
From declaration of Joseph Shan:
You make a very compelling point. The class action suit was roundly discredited by the trial judge. Moreover, to even a layperson, it is clearly grounded in sophomoric legal reasoning. Therefore it is hard to fathom why anyone would to throw good money after bad with a case that faces almost certain doom when it finally does reach the appellate court judges. (Not to mention the risk of sanctions for a frivolous action.) Peregrine has already made it clear they will not "settle" with the plaintiff. So with basically zero hope of direct financial reward, one does wonder why the plaintiff so stubbornly persists in keeping the case on the docket for as long as possible. All imo.
So buy if you think it's low, sell if you think it's high.
Hard to tell without more detail. Some have argued that pending legal matters give management a pretext to hold information closer to the vest then normal. All imo.
Waah is not an argument.
It would be interesting to know why the briefing schedule was extended. Plaintiff doesn't have a case and appears to be slow walking this to maximize the time until it gets dismissed. Looks like plaintiff perceives some value to being a "wrench in the machine".
$20/share seems very fair today, provided it's not proximate to positive Sunrise data.
It would be interesting to know why the briefing schedule was extended..and who initially moved to extend it.
But not completely heretical assuming that a deal was struck prior to release of Phase III results. If the Phase III results come back favorable, then it's a game changer and $13 would seem paltry.
There may not have been a confirmation on record by PPHM that Abbvie was at the table. But if you couple the claims in the CA with the declaration by in the suit against CSM, namely, "With the anticipated success of this trial, Peregrine expected to promptly partner with or be acquired by a global pharmaceutical company.." it doesn't seem to be an unreasonable inference.
$13/share in the next year would be reasonable...even $12.
CP - I think the BOD has done a remarkable job of keeping the company financed and ahead of the burn rate. My point was simply that the metrics an investment banker uses for optimal ROI may be different than a private investor.
Cheap is a relative term, but with the BOD controlled by investment bankers, it certainly possible, and perhaps even predictable, that their cash out number is lower than the expectation of many longs. Having said that, I imagine that ROI vs free cash is a topic subject to vigorous debate and highly subject to individual investment objectives. I think the biggest concern in a MEDX like scenario is that nascent intellectual property is given away with the developed product. All imo.
North40000 - I was actually thinking specifically of MEDX. In many ways, PPHM seems to be following the same trajectory.
Maybe not a partnership in the traditional sense, but an outright buyout perceived by some to be under-priced, say for example $8.00/share. All imo.
IMO, the changes look like they could be preemptive in nature. Is the BOD expecting a hostile takeover bid? If that is the case, it is certainly good news for shareholders. Takeovers happen when a very sophisticated entity knows that a company is significantly undervalued, and would confirm the feeling of many longs that the current SP/Market Cap is simply too low.
Not an expert, but apparently there is a very small number BSL-4 labs (in the U.S.) from which to make a guess, with the only private one located in Texas.
What is the significance?
All imo.
Looks like they are just trying to delay a ruling by the Court that puts and end to this nonsense for good. Others have suggested that the CA case is insignificant to Peregrine's progress, but if that were truly the case, why is the CA attorney clinging to this doomed travesty of justice with everything that she has and slow walking it the entire way?
All imo.
Looks like the Class Action Clowns have been granted more time to deliver nothing:
Technical Analysis of the unusual lunch hour trading: LOL
All imo.
Interesting that this is happening over lunch. Either "somebody" is being messed with, or something else is afoot. All imo, of course.
In pleadings related to the CSM lawsuit, Joesph Shan stated a cost of $100,000 per patient.
Didn't DTRA spend approx $24MM (not sure of exact amount, but it is on record), including an optional extension of the base period, out of a $36MM cap on the entire contract? While they may not have spent every penny of the maximum budget amount, it doesn't seem accurate to say they "scrapped" the program.
There is no publication date in the paper but a footnote references an article in July/Aug 2014 mAbs, so the paper would appear to be very recent.
Are you suggesting they hire a caveman or a small lizard as a spokesperson?
By no means a darling of the "Financial Media" (yet), but Bavi is on the right radar screens..progress continues quietly.
Antibodies to watch in 2014 Mid-year update
The below paper appears to show promise. Perhaps management will have an update on the progress of anti-viral programs at the ASM.
Effective binding of a phosphatidylserine-targeting antibody to Ebola virus infected cells and purified virions
Let's hope they score at least a ten bagger!
Been waiting awhile now for a bullish indicator. Now we have one! When is the launch?
On the bright side the number of posts with the standard basher narrative seem to be on the rise, and that kind of crap always seems to precede a nice spike in price. I'll be more confident if AF suddenly piles on, though.
Agree with most of your comments, but how is the s/p "artificially" depressed? It looks like there is simply no volume right now. What I find perplexing is the huge spike in volume and s/p in March followed by an abrupt crash in volume that has continued since.
Hope is not a strategy.
Up $0.0002 in AH going into a weekend. No doubt the shorts will lose some sleep over this.