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NAVB 3.2M volume was a pair of 1.6M trades that did not appear on the normal charts and time/sale feeds. "normal" volume at that time this morning was a few hundred thousand shares - which was what was charting. So speculation it was an off-exchange block trade....as no one seems to have pinpointed it. PPS ran up on regular trading volume of about 1.1M shares. Strong move on down-market day.
NAVB This has been a long time trade of mine. Currently out but also watching closely. IMO chart has been weak. Montaur continues to sell off and dilute, latest was in late December. CHMP results for LS currently in holding pattern (clock stop)and not up for opinion on the current agenda. Priority review determination from FDA regarding sNDA for LS (sentinel node)expected mid-February, if granted would move decision target to 4 months out. Montaur's MIke Goldberg now on BOD so the hedge fund in full control. For those who trade ECTE same guy/hedge. BOL all.
T2M and Bob thank you for the replies....still have APPY high watch. My recent exits were a combination of charts overheated IMO and rather tight stops which easy to say now I feel good about. Discipline on the chart reading is the only thing keeping me out of the afternoon recovery. I am usually not a high speed flipper so IMO this action needs to play out and good opportunities will emerge soon enough..JMHO...very good opps from this board as always...may be likely buying several back soon. GLTA
Been watching close for an entry in APPY. Stopped out of all my positions last week except for one....been trying to lock gains and search out new, re-evaluate existing. Largest was NAVB, GALE, EXEL all at nice gains but for the first time in 3 years I am 95% in cash and admittedly cautious about entering this week. Only the strongest of charts have held IMO. CYTR and TTNP both up on Friday have my attention. Thanks to all on this board with lots of great ideas to select from. Looking forward to getting more involved in 2014. BOL
EXEL Market seems to be reacting ok to this with the offering price at $8.00. Good time IMO if they were going to offer with recent strength and positive PR. I traded out of half position a few days back. Still holding 50% with a trailing stop. COMET 1, 2 results could take this to next level.
EXEL $8.16 Exited 50% of position from 4.70's at plus 77%. This has been a long-time range trader of mine that finally popped recently. A number of good catalysts remain IMO for 2014 so still holding half of original position. Getting much more attention now from WS and already had 85% insti-ownership.
Nice work Wrinks. Chart has improved greatly last week. High 60's resistance was expected. reload soon IMO
Wrinks, been off I HUB for awhile but will be back on these boards from time to time. NAVB been a tough play of late. Charts need some attention...but a gap fill is near-term IMO.
T2M... As always good work on the charts and thank you. That upper R line will be the 52wk high in about 2 weeks. Have not been public on IHub lately and just stopped in on this board. I am still very active on the NAVB trade and see this continuing to be a keeper. Also built a nice core over the past 2 years, but mostly still work the charts. BOLTU
NAVB $3.15 Really a nice move given the market. Went through prior key level at 2.80 and hasn't looled back. IMO the convertable restructuring, plus new GE capital, a few weeks back is making a big difference in confidence to buy in/hold, adding some short positions closing out. 4694 positive news today looks ahead to Ph 3 trials. Euro deal expected soon as well for LS.
NAVB Thanks T2M. With possibly the exception of the upper BB this chart is looking great and agree volume into R at 2.78-2.80 is key near term. Your charts are always appreciated.
NAVB I have been buying at 2.78 and lower and plan to continue this week. The technicals/chart really need some TLC, however good chance we see the selling ease up. With this stock the updrafts can be just as strong.
NAVB P/M has over 30M conversions that expire in December. Their recent filing was at the same 12.5M offering as last year. Suspect they unloaded the 3.5M they converted last week - however with the blocker limit notice period now past they can convert all they want after MArch 1st.
NAVB Although I have not seen the actual report, Charley is listed as covering NAVB (along with many of the stocks on the board). He has not been added (yet) to the list NAVB maintains, but at this point looks like we're stuck with him. Would love to know his basis for the dramatic shift from last year. The moderator on tomorrows call may be very busy :)
lovethatgreen - that's an classic bird on your photo! Don't know I could find anything in that panel. Probably a real bad day to mention this...but I'm a Piper guy. BOL!...looks like NAVB on sale in premarket.
NAVB- I have not been able to verify the report, but I'm sure whatever will come to light tomorrow. I'd think then that PJ will be on the CC Thursday morning. Time will tell but certainly caused a stir after a very light volume afternoon.
NAVB: Piper J. report out with apparent $1.50 price target. Seems to have caused a stir aftermarket. I have not seen the actual report. BOL
ECTE I also have been buying some post secondary. The dip below the offering price seemed very attractive but also only a spec. stock for me. Thanks Brown for the DD post. Of interest is these guys are also financed by Platinum - same as NAVB. GL!
Actually I checked back and I understand the warrant expiration date was recently amended to 12/31/13, along with the waiver of the automatice P-share conversions to 12/31/13. The only other time I can recall these "blocker limit" filings is ahead of the annual meetings to report voting powere limits, so something I'll look further into.
NAVB 13G Also a new filing from Platinum stating their maximum holding at the 9.9% blocker limit. I haven't had a chance to read it in detail yet and could only find in on the company web site. Warrants expire 4/16 and the blocker notice (to exceed) would have been due 60 days in advance.
NAVB This has the potential for a 1-2 punch regarding LS milestones. Other than the PDUFA, and the attention to the intial approved labeling specifics, IMO they are itching to end the H&N Ph3 early by the March/April timeframe with solid S&E results. This would allow them Sentinal Node, expanded labeling, etc., which IMO is significant, regardless of if it occures before or after PDUFA. Not sure if that type of label requires a new or supplemental NDA/filing, so interested if someone here has an understanding of that process. TIA
DCTH Sheff...Thanks for posting this! - really good DD and event summary for those of us trading it.
MELA $1.62 in pre-market. Secondary offering 6M shares at $1.30. I have a starter position on the wrong side this trade.
Thats exactly how I would recommend doing it. The Snipping Tool is a great feature, and you can add some simple graphics as well. Works as well for chart shots, etc.
HZNP This stock took me to school last summer and still a vivid lesson. Been trying to hit singles and inching back some gains with much smaller blocks. This last run broke the recent downtrend nicely which hopefully indicates the market range in place for trading. Limited market/revenue potential IMO keeps me interested for short-term trades only. BOL guys
ps- Go Bucks :)
NAVB 3.24. hit low of day at 3.15
NAVB The largest short % increase took place prior to the NDA filing in 2011 when SP had surged to $5+. IMO many of those positions are still unsettled. As for the finance companies, e.g P/M, they can easily lock in gains on runs by short selling against cheap warrants, etc. I'm not saying that occurs or doesn't occur, and NAVB is in no different position than many others. The only short thesis on NAVB is the LS revenue argument, and if we see another secondary offering mid-year on SP strength. IMO the short interest could be near current levels for some time...just my 2 cents....BOL. I think we'll do well in this.
ECTE 0.79 Major Secondary offering at $0.75
NAVB This was the type of "well placed" secondary that some of us pressed Brent Larson for last year - knowing that in one way or another some dilution is/was in the cards. The Pshare conversions and warrants give little to help them and just hurt the common. P/M has another 4M in warrants expiring in April, but that is the last major block of outstanding warrants. I would anticipate SP pressure from this especially if we near $5 moving into PDUFA when they can take nice profits...but this latest sale to JP very bullish IMO and I'm loaded to my max. BOL everyone.
OT Biotech Indicies: I try to keep tabs on the major biotech indicies such as BTK, IBB, etc. in addition to the overall market. Our stocks don't all move in sync, especially the PDUFA/Data plays, but I find it useful when looking to establish or add to positions since the trends can indicate institutional/fund trading patterns. I run the same technical/chart paramters on these as I do my watch list. BOL
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IBB&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p71881653533
NAVB 3.01 T2M I concur and thanks for the chart post. My own settings have a general overbought condition but with hints it can overcome and leg up to the next level on the trend lines. IMO we'll see more interest build in the near future as Lymphoseek is a high probability approval - noting if I recall correctly P/M has another 4M in warrants expiring in April and how they handle this (market selling vs. reverse PS conversion) will make an impact on SP. IMO they wont sell off shares unless were well into the 4's, which would be fine by me. I have a trailing stop on my position at the 20dMA. BOL
EXEL 4.63 :Been trading in/out reliably between mid 4's and low 5's. Institutional interest is very solid IMO at about 80% of float and heavy buying recently, 46M shares. Has held a base near 4.50 for the most part since the offering last year which gave them solid cash position. Higher short interest in 25% range, and currently chart showing potential rebound as we near oversold range. Not a home run stock but been trading base hits well for me - further Cometriq studies and partnerships providing potential catalysts. Have current starter in play at 4.60 - Link to chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EXEL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p38550988256
NAVB - over 33,000 contracts remain open for $3 calls - expiring on Friday. May be part of the volume/price action this week, that seems like a fairly high amount to me (but have not been tracking lately)
DCTH $1.47: Add my thanks T2M for the nice job on annotating the charts on this and others. I also am looking to add/build my position - currently at 40%. The Stochastic is of near-term concern to me, but overall excellant technicals with this one and a multi-month play. The 1.30-1.50 range is an excellant entry zone IMO.
NAVB : Wrinks, good to see you around. I took Q4 off from trading but back in with a full position in NAVB - looking for 3.25/3.29 next level to test. Also have DCTH and may average up on that position, lots of good DD here on that. Good to see some familiar names on the board. BOL everyone
HZNP $3.42 Got a speculative buy order filled here as a starter. Been flipping this recently trying to regain some ground from the earlier post-approval sell-off. Offering SP is 3.50
NAVB Great link and Good Report providing a summary of the potential near-term catalysts accross the pipeline. Worth noting the LS resubmission time-line is based on a Class 1 resubmission. IMO a Class 1 will be a SP catalyst, and if Class 2 (or other protracted delays) may be questioned. The 4694 Phase 3 timeline could be huge catalyst noting that there may likely be both self-funded trials as well as larger partnered trials with AZ. For LS, Head & Neck trial results hopefully soon brings SLN labeling into play. GLTA
NAVB 3.25 PM: Positive news on RIGS development hopefully gives this a boost to a re-test of 3.35 range. Long term IMHO Rigs will need a development/commercialization partner to come on board, and the grant money flow will certainly help attract attention.
BOL everyone in this.
NAVB Yes, The Phase 3 for 4694 is expected to begin in Q1 of 2013 (not 2014). Not sure if the phase 2 is terminated b4 launching ph 3. The current 4694 study can go very quick, so my take-a-way from the presentations and research reports is that NAVB can cycle through the 200 enrollment relatively quickly...the results are immediate.
NAVB I've seen Dr. Cope's presentation on 4694 and this has the potential to truely advance AD diagnosis IMO. If they can keep on track for a Q1 phase 3, this will give SP a steady flow of catalysts moving forward. Would be great to see LS H&N trial news soon as well.
Link added
http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01680588?term=navidea&rank=1